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Acquiring an Ace: FA or Trade?
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2015 15:18:15 GMT -5
“@jcrasnick: It’s believed Greinke is looking for a $30M annual payout. He’s 32, so length of the deal will be an issue.”
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brisox
Rookie
SoxProspects Veteran
Posts: 87
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Post by brisox on Nov 30, 2015 16:38:31 GMT -5
I'm going to add a dissonant voice here and just say this whole "ace" obsession is excessive and will get the Red Sox in trouble. I'm tired of coming last too, but man, the solution to this is not giving 7/230 or whatever other crazy amount to David Price. This is really the definition of insanity. Doing the same crazy thing over and over again, for pretty much the same results. the Free Agent marketplace is the worst place to try to build a team. Those deals just don't work. As good as he is, David Price will be an albatross on somebody's payroll. I look at Cano, Ellsbury, Hanley, and I just shake my head. Even a pitcher like Tanaka doesn't look so hot now. In the end, the best argument for this is something like "it's not my money", or "baseball is awash in dollars anyway". The first is true (John Henry will do whatever he wants), the second looks true now, but is really a bubble. Where exactly is that money coming from? Viewership? The price of live sports? Even the TV companies that are financing this are starting to realize it's money down the drain. Direc TV doesn't want to carry the Dodgers, Comcast holding off on carrying the YES network, we'll start seeing more of that. Anyway, Dombrowski can give a crazy deal to Price. Whatever. Where I'll really get annoyed is if/when they start talking of payroll constraints or anything like that, in extending the kids or getting that extra piece. Because once you give a $200m contract, you're really saying you have no constraints. The thing with spending is once you start doing it, you have to keep doing it. That's how the Dodgers got to $300m with (almost) nothing to show for it. Other than a thousands of Direc TV customers not able to watch them because their channel is too expensive to carry. I really fear this team is heading the way of the yankees/Tigers/ to be honest. Don't get me wrong, there are some pretty good youngsters here. But even if Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley/Erod et al pan out, you'll have half the team at least composed of a bunch of underperforming vets on silly contracts that are constraining team flexibility. That is a terrible outcome. I understand why you'd hesitate, but I don't know how else the Sox drastically improve the starting pitching without gutting the farm system or giving up key major league pieces. I'm not crazy about this but sometimes you have to bite the bullet, and I think that's where the Sox are right now. David Price is not some run of the mill free agent. He's not Pablo Sandoval. This is a guy on a hall of fame path. He has very few red flags against him if any that say he can't continue his level of pitching over the next several years. The alternative is spending a bunch (but yeah, a lot less) of money on the Kazmirs of the world and hope for the best, or gut the system, or hope that Joe Kelly fulfills his Cy Young prediction and becames the next Jake Arrieta. It could happen, but I don't like the certainty of it. So what you have is perhaps a team that can win 85 - 87 games and have everything break right for them in the post-season. It can happen, but when the Sox have won before it was because they had the best team. The 2004 Sox finished behind the Yanks but if you go by RS/RA they were vastly superior to them, and in 07 and 13 the Sox had the best teams as well, so I think it increases your odds of winning when you don't have to catch lightning in a bottle. Good points. With an Ace on the Team it also takes the pressure off Kelly , or any of the young guys to have to immediately step into that role, we can relax on Owens and Johnson, Kelly, Porcello all who I think will be great SPs and no longer have to feel like they need to push.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 30, 2015 16:46:21 GMT -5
Cueto rejects 6/120 from Diamondbacks Hard to see him getting much more than that unless he's willing to do 4-5 years. How do you figure that? Zimmerman just signed for 5 years 110 million and Detroit had to give up a draft pick. Cueto is a much better pitcher then Zimmerman. I like Zimmerman but his loss of speed on fastball and him changing how he pitches is a huge red flag. Yes Cueto had a hard time adjusting to the AL but that's not uncommon and he did have some very good starts in the playoffs. If Cueto has a clean MRI his price tage just went from 6 years 132 to 6 years 140 to 150 million. He is going to get a lot more then the 22 million a year Zimmerman is making.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 30, 2015 16:53:01 GMT -5
It's really got to be Price/Greinke or bust. I'm glad they didn't touch Zimmerman and I think the likely Cueto deal is going to be an unmitigated disaster. Price/Greinke likely at minimum provide a few years of elite top end talent, and you hope through a combination of aging well and baseball economics that $25-$30M on the back end isn't payroll debilitating
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2015 17:05:12 GMT -5
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that, in addition to the Diamondbacks, Johnny Cueto has received interest from the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox and Cubs, among others. It was reported earlier Monday that Cueto turned down a six-year, $120 million offer from the D'Backs. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick hears that the right-hander is looking for a contract in the $140-160 million range, and while it remains to be seen whether he'll get there, Heyman says "the market still favors Cueto." Since Cueto was traded during the 2015 season, the team that signs him this winter will not have to forfeit a draft pick.
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Post by buffs4444 on Nov 30, 2015 22:11:19 GMT -5
Has Price signed yet?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 30, 2015 22:23:48 GMT -5
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Post by heisenberg on Dec 1, 2015 0:01:54 GMT -5
It's really got to be Price/Greinke or bust. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, there is at least one scenario where they go bust. Price/Greinke both have the Dodgers/Giants pursuing them. Those are a couple of hard acts to follow, especially when you're coming off your third last place finish in four years. Greinke to the Giants and Price to the Dodgers wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 1, 2015 0:12:59 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Dec 1, 2015 0:39:20 GMT -5
Sign Price and the job is done. I do think dombrowski is going all out for price. However once we sign price, the job is not done. Dombrowski is going after another starter via the trade route probably ( think Cleveland) and we will feel some serious farm system pain. I thought young said he wanted to be a starter? Maybe young is thinking that Castillo gets hurt every other day and there are lots of plate appearances because of it.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 1, 2015 0:43:16 GMT -5
Yeah wow, they came outta nowhere for him. 7/225.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 1, 2015 0:47:05 GMT -5
It's really got to be Price/Greinke or bust. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, there is at least one scenario where they go bust. Price/Greinke both have the Dodgers/Giants pursuing them. Those are a couple of hard acts to follow, especially when you're coming off your third last place finish in four years. Greinke to the Giants and Price to the Dodgers wouldn't surprise me at all. It would me, but then I've been wrong many times before. The Dodgers are shedding salary, or so they've said. As stretched as they are with their payroll, I don't believe they'll be taking on anything like a $30 million dollar salary. Their top 10 players alone account for over 150 million. Throw in their obligations to players like Kemp, and it's up to $171 million in 2016. That's before factoring in any of their arbitration. They have 8 of those guys, including Ellis, Turner, Nicasio and Grandal. They will easily top $200 million when all is said and done. I don't see them being willing to pay top dollar for Price.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2015 7:26:57 GMT -5
Sign Price and the job is done. I do think dombrowski is going all out for price. However once we sign price, the job is not done. Dombrowski is going after another starter via the trade route probably ( think Cleveland) and we will feel some serious farm system pain. I thought young said he wanted to be a starter? Maybe young is thinking that Castillo gets hurt every other day and there are lots of plate appearances because of it. They aren't going to gut the farm to try to improve on Buchholz or Miley and then have to trade them also. I'd be shocked if they even wasted their time trying.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 8:21:18 GMT -5
Sign Price and the job is done. I do think dombrowski is going all out for price. However once we sign price, the job is not done. Dombrowski is going after another starter via the trade route probably ( think Cleveland) and we will feel some serious farm system pain. I thought young said he wanted to be a starter? Maybe young is thinking that Castillo gets hurt every other day and there are lots of plate appearances because of it. If there is a trade for a Cleveland starter, the pain will be in Boston, not the farm. They were close to the playoffs last year. They want that piece to get them there. There will be a poece, or pieces from the farm, but the headliner will be from Boston.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 8:31:46 GMT -5
It's really got to be Price/Greinke or bust. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, there is at least one scenario where they go bust. Price/Greinke both have the Dodgers/Giants pursuing them. Those are a couple of hard acts to follow, especially when you're coming off your third last place finish in four years. Greinke to the Giants and Price to the Dodgers wouldn't surprise me at all. Don't see that happening. But for shiggles, what if it did? They could go with their in house options. An outcome that scares many in RSN, but is really not that bad a choice if it is the only choice. They could make the rumored Bradley + for Carrasco deal They could sign Kazmir and retain their pick, although I don't see him as an upgrade over what's in house already In closing, if they don't sign a top arm, I'm quite OK with that. I still think they will compete for the playoffs in 2016
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 1, 2015 8:40:43 GMT -5
I may be alone in my optimism but the pitchers from last years rotation along with Price as the leader and a much improved bullpen will make for a very good staff. Without getting into it too much as this is the wrong thread, the guys from last yr. got off to a bad start. Injuries to catchers, no leader, new to the AL East and some guys just trying to do too much all led to subpar seasons. They have all shown they can pitch better and I believe they will. So go get Price and the job is done. This will be a very good defensive team that will score a lot of runs also.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,857
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Post by nomar on Dec 1, 2015 8:44:32 GMT -5
I don't get the certainty that we land Price.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 1, 2015 8:52:51 GMT -5
I do think dombrowski is going all out for price. However once we sign price, the job is not done. Dombrowski is going after another starter via the trade route probably ( think Cleveland) and we will feel some serious farm system pain. I thought young said he wanted to be a starter? Maybe young is thinking that Castillo gets hurt every other day and there are lots of plate appearances because of it. If there is a trade for a Cleveland starter, the pain will be in Boston, not the farm. They were close to the playoffs last year. They want that piece to get them there. There will be a poece, or pieces from the farm, but the headliner will be from Boston. Would a Vazquez, Castillo, Miley get you Carrasco/Salazar? Then sign De Aza & let him platoon with Young.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 8:59:46 GMT -5
If there is a trade for a Cleveland starter, the pain will be in Boston, not the farm. They were close to the playoffs last year. They want that piece to get them there. There will be a poece, or pieces from the farm, but the headliner will be from Boston. Would a Vazquez, Castillo, Miley get you Carrasco/Salazar? Then sign De Aza & let him platoon with Young. Don't think it that complicated. Bradley, and maybe Owens for Carrasco. Young platoons with Holt/Shaw in LF, Castillo to RF and Marrero moves up to Boston as IF util.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 1, 2015 9:10:13 GMT -5
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, there is at least one scenario where they go bust. Price/Greinke both have the Dodgers/Giants pursuing them. Those are a couple of hard acts to follow, especially when you're coming off your third last place finish in four years. Greinke to the Giants and Price to the Dodgers wouldn't surprise me at all. Don't see that happening. But for shiggles, what if it did? They could go with their in house options. An outcome that scares many in RSN, but is really not that bad a choice if it is the only choice. They could make the rumored Bradley + for Carrasco deal They could sign Kazmir and retain their pick, although I don't see him as an upgrade over what's in house already In closing, if they don't sign a top arm, I'm quite OK with that. I still think they will compete for the playoffs in 2016 With Young here, I would flip Bradley for Carrasco & then sign a LHH OF to platoon w/Young. I know Bradley could turn into something great, but I see him more as a Mike Cameron type (he could be more OR less). I know everyone wants Price & he is a great pitcher, just see too much dead money on the back end.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 1, 2015 9:11:04 GMT -5
Can't help but think St Louis (specifically if/when they re-sign Heyward, Piscotty/Grichuk could be available) or the Chicago Cubs (Baez or Soler, perhaps) will end up being better matches for Cleveland?
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 9:22:43 GMT -5
They very well could be, but Baez and Sole aren't in the same category yet as Bradley, and the Cards still need to make the investment in Heyward, plus fix 1B. They also have Wainwright coming back to ease the sting of losing Lynn so aren't desperate to gain a starter. Sox aren't desperate either and it's entirely possible no deals happen for the Indians starter.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 1, 2015 9:46:27 GMT -5
They very well could be, but Baez and Sole aren't in the same category yet as Bradley, and the Cards still need to make the investment in Heyward, plus fix 1B. They also have Wainwright coming back to ease the sting of losing Lynn so aren't desperate to gain a starter. Sox aren't desperate either and it's entirely possible no deals happen for the Indians starter. But St Louis has lost Lynn and may lose Lackey so AW only replaces one of them. "Fixing" 1B seems like an easier thing to do (Find a platoon partner for either Moss or Adams, might be enough if you have a dominant staff and the rest of the lineup in good shape) I'm not suggesting Baez/Soler, straight up, would do it but there is a match there (with some other pieces involved) given Chicago's desire for pitching (and one would think CHEAP pitching with Lester's deal and Arrieta needing an extension soon). On that, it probably just depends on which version of Baez you believe in and which version of Bradley you believe in (and which one you prefer). Both come with flaws but with high potential as well (though much of the value in Baez would come from his ability to play SS, a position that Cleveland already has resolved).
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 9:49:03 GMT -5
With a Price signing, they set up quite well, and deep, with only SS not covered by a good option. Young gives them 4 solid OF options, while Holt and Shaw afford them great protection on the corners and 2B, while only adequate protection at SS.
If they did a JBJ for Carrasco deal, they would be depending on Holt and Shaw more in the OF, but could add Marrero to the bench as SS protection.
As much as I am a JBJ fanboy, I like the idea of another high end starter, and Marrero on the bench more than the idea of Buchholz as #2, and Bradley in CF.
If they locked down 1 and 2 with Price and Carrasco, they could keep Buchholz as 3, but I think they'd deal him after he re-established value. That deal would plug some arms into the system and make the farm better fit the needs in Boston.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 9:50:41 GMT -5
I guess an additional benefit would be Castillo in RF where his known talents would shine more.
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