|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 7, 2018 13:40:29 GMT -5
And what does the Dodgers offering Puig for JBJ tell you? In the last 3 years, JBJ has put up 9.8 fWAR and Puig has put up 5.4 fWAR. JBJ has an additional year of control and isn't a headcase like Puig is. The Red Sox were absolutely right to just say no and not bother to negotiate further on that joke of an offer. It tells me that the Dodgers are overrating him too. War can be misleading sometimes. In this case its because Jackie is so good defensively. Thats skewing the numbers. Remember Puig is coming off a bounce back year, so his down years skew his numbers down. ...and Bradley's "up" years skew his numbers ... up. I've watched Puig play for three years, and take my word for it he isn't worth the trouble. His defensive play can be spectacular - when he decides to play that is. The Sox did exactly the right thing. He would be nothing but trouble. If he isn't the shining star he isn't all that happy. It would be a lousy way for the FO to greet Cora, the new manager.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 7, 2018 15:03:01 GMT -5
And what does the Dodgers offering Puig for JBJ tell you? In the last 3 years, JBJ has put up 9.8 fWAR and Puig has put up 5.4 fWAR. JBJ has an additional year of control and isn't a headcase like Puig is. The Red Sox were absolutely right to just say no and not bother to negotiate further on that joke of an offer. It tells me that the Dodgers are overrating him too. War can be misleading sometimes. In this case its because Jackie is so good defensively. Thats skewing the numbers. Remember Puig is coming off a bounce back year, so his down years skew his numbers down. WAR can be misleading when it doesn't agree with your opinion that defense doesn't matter?
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 7, 2018 16:10:10 GMT -5
Puig is a clubhouse problem. He could grow up but why take the chance, he has more upside but he also has more downside.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 7, 2018 16:31:13 GMT -5
If the Dodgers offered Ryu and Puig for JBJ, it would probably be more of a fair deal.
Other than that, the Dodgers can get out of here with that terrible offer and that's what Dombrowski said to them politely.
Are the Dodgers betting that the Sox are dumb or something?
|
|
|
Post by Gwell55 on Jan 7, 2018 16:45:04 GMT -5
If the Dodgers offered Ryu and Puig for JBJ, it would probably be more of a fair deal. Other than that, the Dodgers can get out of here with that terrible offer and that's what Dombrowski said to them politely. Are the Dodgers betting that the Sox are dumb or something? Or they figured we still owed them a make up for the Punto trade.
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedKyle on Jan 7, 2018 18:11:40 GMT -5
And what does the Dodgers offering Puig for JBJ tell you? In the last 3 years, JBJ has put up 9.8 fWAR and Puig has put up 5.4 fWAR. JBJ has an additional year of control and isn't a headcase like Puig is. The Red Sox were absolutely right to just say no and not bother to negotiate further on that joke of an offer. It tells me that the Dodgers are overrating him too. War can be misleading sometimes. In this case its because Jackie is so good defensively. Thats skewing the numbers. Remember Puig is coming off a bounce back year, so his down years skew his numbers down. Defense is half the game.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 7, 2018 18:39:24 GMT -5
Eh, not really (defense and pitching is half the game), but I agree with the gist of the point.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 7, 2018 22:39:42 GMT -5
Here are the two players we're talking about here from 2015-2017.
Player A: .255/.337/.456, 53 HR, 20 SB Player B: .261/.333/.453, 50 HR, 23 SB
Given the year of team control and defense, saying no to the trade was an absolute no-brainer.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2018 13:37:11 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley jr. avoids arbitration and signs for 6.1 million dollars
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 12, 2018 14:02:45 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley jr. avoids arbitration and signs for 6.1 million dollars Estimate was $5.9 million
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 14, 2018 14:37:47 GMT -5
Eh, not really (defense and pitching is half the game), but I agree with the gist of the point. I would say that the premium defensive positions, especially when averaging around 1.8 chances a game, it really is about half the game. Ive heard the argument that its pitching AND defense. Ive heard that one can go all nine innings without seeing the ball hit to him (at any position let alone a tough Fenway CF). We also know you can go 0-4 flailing terribly, and make one spectacular, or just plain clutch, catch/throw to change/impact/save/end a game. I know you aren't arguing that it isn't half the game, but players like Jackie Bradley sure as heck make it feel like that at times. Whether it be for better or for worse.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 15, 2018 9:51:59 GMT -5
Eh, not really (defense and pitching is half the game), but I agree with the gist of the point. I would say that the premium defensive positions, especially when averaging around 1.8 chances a game, it really is about half the game. Ive heard the argument that its pitching AND defense. Ive heard that one can go all nine innings without seeing the ball hit to him (at any position let alone a tough Fenway CF). We also know you can go 0-4 flailing terribly, and make one spectacular, or just plain clutch, catch/throw to change/impact/save/end a game. I know you aren't arguing that it isn't half the game, but players like Jackie Bradley sure as heck make it feel like that at times. Whether it be for better or for worse. you must have an odd definition of the word “half”
|
|
dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
|
Post by dd on Jan 15, 2018 10:40:12 GMT -5
I would say that the premium defensive positions, especially when averaging around 1.8 chances a game, it really is about half the game. Ive heard the argument that its pitching AND defense. Ive heard that one can go all nine innings without seeing the ball hit to him (at any position let alone a tough Fenway CF). We also know you can go 0-4 flailing terribly, and make one spectacular, or just plain clutch, catch/throw to change/impact/save/end a game. I know you aren't arguing that it isn't half the game, but players like Jackie Bradley sure as heck make it feel like that at times. Whether it be for better or for worse. you must have an odd definition of the word “half” [Off topic, I know, but ... Thank you for waking up the board, jimoh. Yours was the first post on any topic in about 16 hours! That's may not be unprecedented but it's the first time I remember seeing no new posts when I checked in the morning.]
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 15, 2018 16:14:14 GMT -5
I would say that the premium defensive positions, especially when averaging around 1.8 chances a game, it really is about half the game. Ive heard the argument that its pitching AND defense. Ive heard that one can go all nine innings without seeing the ball hit to him (at any position let alone a tough Fenway CF). We also know you can go 0-4 flailing terribly, and make one spectacular, or just plain clutch, catch/throw to change/impact/save/end a game. I know you aren't arguing that it isn't half the game, but players like Jackie Bradley sure as heck make it feel like that at times. Whether it be for better or for worse. you must have an odd definition of the word “half” Like I said in the point. It's somewhere between "eh not really" and "about half". But hey you're right, next time ill include decimal points and a pie chart including wind factors.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 15, 2022 15:33:50 GMT -5
I was recently looking through JBJ's numbers to figure out more precisely why he has struggled this year and found some information that others may find interesting.
-career low exit velocity (87.8) -career low max exit velocity (107.6) -career low barrel percentage (4.9%) -lowest HR% since 2015 on fly balls (1.8%)
The above indicates that JBJ may have lost bat speed, which makes sense as he's just past the normal peek for a baseball player, but the low HR% is particularly bleak as his previous low since 2015 was 7.6%, and from 2015-2020 he never dipped under 10%.
He has always been a player who was below average versus off-speed pitches but feasted on 4-seem fastballs. This year his 0.57 wFA/C (four seam fastball runs above average per 100 pitches) is above average and doesn't appear to be a problem, but this comes a year after he set a career worst (by a wide margin) -1.77 wFA/C, and he is facing 4-seam fastballs at a career high 38.5% rate.
Interestingly he's also facing changeups at a career high 15.9% (previous high was 13.1%) and he is performing at a career worst -2.95 wCH/C against changeups.
This paints the picture of a player who lost some bat speed in 2021 which has lead to an increase in 4-seem fastballs this season. He has adjusted by cheating a bit on fastballs but this has lead to the league throwing more changeups with greater success.
I was hopeful that JBJ would rebound to be a solid platoon player this year (and he has improved from a dismal 2021), but if the problem is indeed his bat-speed, then I don't see how he fixes the issue more than he already has. This might be the middle of the end for JBJ.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 15, 2022 15:39:51 GMT -5
I was recently looking through JBJ's numbers to figure out more precisely why he has struggled this year and found some information that others may find interesting. -career low exit velocity (87.8) -career low max exit velocity (107.6) -career low barrel percentage (4.9%) -lowest HR% since 2015 on fly balls (1.8%) The above indicates that JBJ may have lost bat speed, which makes sense as he's just past the normal peek for a baseball player, but the low HR% is particularly bleak as his previous low since 2015 was 7.6%, and from 2015-2020 he never dipped under 10%. He has always been a player who was below average versus off-speed pitches but feasted on 4-seem fastballs. This year his 0.57 wFA/C (four seam fastball runs above average per 100 pitches) is above average and doesn't appear to be a problem, but this comes a year after he set a career worst (by a wide margin) -1.77 wFA/C, and he is facing 4-seam fastballs at a career high 38.5% rate. Interestingly he's also facing changeups at a career high 15.9% (previous high was 13.1%) and he is performing at a career worst -2.95 wCH/C against changeups. This paints the picture of a player who lost some bat speed in 2021 which has lead to an increase in 4-seem fastballs this season. He has adjusted by cheating a bit on fastballs but this has lead to the league throwing more changeups with greater success. I was hopeful that JBJ would rebound to be a solid platoon player this year (and he has improved from a dismal 2021), but if the problem is indeed his bat-speed, then I don't see how he fixes the issue more than he already has. This might be the middle of the end for JBJ. I had some hope he could return a bit closer to his career averages and be at least slightly below average with the bat to the point his defense could still make him a valuable player but his numbers this year along with your deep dive into his underlying stuff lead me to believe its not happening. I don't remember the exact numbers of his deal/buyout. I want to say his salary for next year is 12 mil and if they buy him out it'll cost 8 so in essence with the difference he'd only cost 4 mil more but even that is too much for what he is as a player. I'm starting to think it best to just take the buyout and save however much the savings would be and to move on.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 15, 2022 15:46:55 GMT -5
What to make of the fact that he also has a career low K rate (and BB rate)? I would've thought the loss of bat speed would cause the Ks to go up. Maybe he's given up on power and is just trying to hang in there by making contact?
|
|
|
Post by philip on Jul 15, 2022 16:32:59 GMT -5
Given the generally poor defense from the team at several positions, I’ll take a guy who fields his position flawlessly and bats 9 every time.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,664
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2022 16:58:28 GMT -5
Given the generally poor defense from the team at several positions, I’ll take a guy who fields his position flawlessly and bats 9 every time. The problem is that the lineup isn't deep enough to afford a guy who is totally washed up with the bat. It's a catch 22. The outfield defense is poor without him and he makes the lineup far worse when he is in it.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 15, 2022 17:02:11 GMT -5
Given the generally poor defense from the team at several positions, I’ll take a guy who fields his position flawlessly and bats 9 every time. Except they've given away all his defensive value and then some by having Arroyo sub for him every fifth game or so. It's a roster construction fail.
|
|
|
Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 15, 2022 17:19:09 GMT -5
I feel like we should give Bradley and Dalbec a pool noodle to bat with for a week. Kind of like giving Will Ferrell's police officer character a wooden gun instead of a real one. (The Other Guys?)
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 15, 2022 17:32:05 GMT -5
What to make of the fact that he also has a career low K rate (and BB rate)? I would've thought the loss of bat speed would cause the Ks to go up. Maybe he's given up on power and is just trying to hang in there by making contact? In 2021 Bradley's K% jumped to a career high 30.8% while his BB% was a career low 6.5% (he would set a new career low this year), so I believe that's the strikeout increase you're looking for. If I'm correct, and he has adjusted for the diminished bat-speed, then it explains the reduced K-rate. As a check, I looked at his P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) and it's indeed a career low 3.71. So he's swinging earlier and making more contact than ever before, but hitting the ball with less authority than ever before.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 15, 2022 17:36:07 GMT -5
I feel like we should give Bradley and Dalbec a pool noodle to bat with for a week. Kind of like giving Will Ferrell's police officer character a wooden gun instead of a real one. (The Other Guys?) Dalbec still has youth, talent and options, so he can play with his noodle in AAA once they have someone to take his place.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 16, 2022 12:50:43 GMT -5
And, incredibly, he's still hitting .291/.764 at home.
Home/road platoon, now!
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,664
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2022 15:38:09 GMT -5
And, incredibly, he's still hitting .291/.764 at home. Home/road platoon, now! I think its overblown. Give him another 100 atbats at home and I think he's just as likely to hit .190. JBJ flat out can't hit at all anymore.
|
|