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Red Sox to sign David Price
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 4, 2015 10:30:40 GMT -5
I'm amazed there is so much re: the opt-out. ....So I'm pretty thrilled with this signing and ecstatic to still have the above aforementioned players still in the organization. To me this signing was a no-brainer and I'm not sure why so much analysis has to go into the opt-out, but if discussing it ad nauseum floats your boat then that's cool, too. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3138/red-sox-sign-david-price?page=15#ixzz3tMbVtcqrI think in your process of ridiculing discussion on the opt-out you too have over-considered it. I don't understand a lick of the discussion either, I mean it's not as if MLB contracts aren't fully guaranteed! Looking to Kershaw's deal, I think it's safe to assume that Price was going to get $32-33m over 7 years. Let's call it $230m because I like round numbers. Let's also assume that DD was going to acquire a top starter. How did he do? He signed arguably the best available starter for less then his market cost and kept his 12th pick, to boot. For that, he gave Price an opt-out after his 3rd year, which is precisely when a smart team would want to dump him anyway. So, He didn't pay market rate for his stud starter, retains the possibility, no, likelihood, that Price relieves him of the back end of his contract opposed to paying those guaranteed years, period, and keeps his 12th pick. What's not to love? The 3rd year opt-out is 10x better than a guaranteed 7 years which DD was going to pay. As a bonus, he gets an extra motivated Price for years 1-3. See Ben? This is how real GM's deal - smartly. It's not less than the market cost when you bid $37M (20%) more than the next highest bid....
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Dec 4, 2015 10:33:49 GMT -5
I think in your process of ridiculing discussion on the opt-out you too have over-considered it. I don't understand a lick of the discussion either, I mean it's not as if MLB contracts aren't fully guaranteed! Looking to Kershaw's deal, I think it's safe to assume that Price was going to get $32-33m over 7 years. Let's call it $230m because I like round numbers. Let's also assume that DD was going to acquire a top starter. How did he do? He signed arguably the best available starter for less then his market cost and kept his 12th pick, to boot. For that, he gave Price an opt-out after his 3rd year, which is precisely when a smart team would want to dump him anyway. So, He didn't pay market rate for his stud starter, retains the possibility, no, likelihood, that Price relieves him of the back end of his contract opposed to paying those guaranteed years, period, and keeps his 12th pick. What's not to love? The 3rd year opt-out is 10x better than a guaranteed 7 years which DD was going to pay. As a bonus, he gets an extra motivated Price for years 1-3. See Ben? This is how real GM's deal - smartly. It's not less than the market cost when you bid $37M (20%) more than the next highest bid.... Why should we believe that? Again, looking at what Kershaw received, a safe assumption is that Price's market was $225-230m
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 4, 2015 10:42:30 GMT -5
It's not less than the market cost when you bid $37M (20%) more than the next highest bid.... Why should we believe that? Again, looking at what Kershaw received, a safe assumption is that Price's market was $225-230m You should believe it because by definition market price is "the price of a commodity when sold in a given market." If his market was $225-230M, why was no other team besides the Red Sox close to that bid? Kershaw really isn't a great comp to Price deal. Kershaw was younger, better, and a contract extension. Why not compare to Scherzer or Verlander (who was also an extension), which off the top of my head I think are better comps.
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Dec 4, 2015 11:04:43 GMT -5
Why should we believe that? Again, looking at what Kershaw received, a safe assumption is that Price's market was $225-230m You should believe it because by definition market price is "the price of a commodity when sold in a given market." If his market was $225-230M, why was no other team besides the Red Sox close to that bid? Kershaw really isn't a great comp to Price deal. Kershaw was younger, better, and a contract extension. Why not compare to Scherzer or Verlander (who was also an extension), which off the top of my head I think are better comps. I can think of two reasons: the opt-out and no deferred money. Price wanted both. Kershaw's contract is certainly a good comp for Price's. Kershaw is younger and better, signed one year ago for $35m/yr. Price is older and not as good, but maybe top 3? and signed for $31m/yr. That's about right, I'd say. And Scherzer also signed last year, is not quite as good as Price, and for $30/yr. All those contracts are comparable.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 4, 2015 11:28:05 GMT -5
It's funny though, if the Red Sox weren't involve on Price, his market price would have been lower. It's not like he's going to sit out if no one met his demands.
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Post by mannofsteele on Dec 4, 2015 11:49:12 GMT -5
Is there anything on when the press conference will be on 12/4. Unless it has been pushed back.
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Post by jbuttah on Dec 4, 2015 12:36:14 GMT -5
Is anyone else comforted in knowing that it was the Cardinals who were the runner-ups to signing Price? In terms of the possible negative impact a huge contract has on a team is 27mm per year all that much different from 31mm per year?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2015 14:04:59 GMT -5
It's funny though, if the Red Sox weren't involve on Price, his market price would have been lower. It's not like he's going to sit out if no one met his demands. Maybe, but the Greinke situation sped up the timetable. If the Dodgers wound up losing Greinke to the Giants, then maybe the Dodgers would have thrown down $250 million over 8 years. Who knows? It sounds like from what I read that Greinke's agent told the Sox to have their best offer in by a particular night (was it Tuesday night), and the Sox, who had prioritized Price as their first choice, wanted to know from Price if he was willing to play for their best offer or else the Sox would have signed Greinke so that they didn't lose out on the top tier of free agents. Price was cool with their offer and said yes, taking away any chance that anybody else gets involved. Maybe he wouldn't have gotten the money he got with Boston, but that's hard to say. I remember seeing Prince Fielder sitting out there before he got his big deal. The elite players always get their big money. I suspect Price would have gotten his $31 million per year if it were the Sox or somebody else.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2015 14:08:33 GMT -5
It's funny though, if the Red Sox weren't involve on Price, his market price would have been lower. It's not like he's going to sit out if no one met his demands. I blame this on his agent. I am really shocked at how early he signed. Boras has proved that if your elite and wait the market out you get the most money. There is no doubt in my mind that If Price waited for Grienke and Cueto to sign that he could have got the same deal the Red Sox gave him from another team.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2015 14:47:27 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 4, 2015 15:41:08 GMT -5
Yeah, yeah, markets, opt-out, economic theory, blah, blah ... the key to the deal for me: I'm gonna like David Price on the Red Sox quite a bit. He's got a good sense of social media, the praise from his teammates sounds almost like they are joking it's so over-the-top, and, most importantly, it's been a long time since the Sox had a true ace-level starter. Lester came close a couple of times, and Beckett got there at least one year, but it's just fun to have a Cy Young-caliber pitcher.
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Post by heisenberg on Dec 4, 2015 15:54:29 GMT -5
I'm amazed there is so much re: the opt-out. Seriously. There was quite literally zero time to enjoy the moment following the signing before people began whining about the opt out. From the sense of entitlement some Red Sox "fans" display, you'd think we were something other than a team coming off of three last place finishes, four managers and three general managers in the last four years and change. David Price could have played for any team. But, he made at least a three year commitment to us - Despite the fact that the Red Sox organization has not been for the last several years what Red Sox fans often make it out to be. We are not baseball nirvana - Not until we prove we can win on a consistent basis. So, more power to David Price for hedging his bet. If we want him to re-up at the end of three years, then we're going to need to have our stuff together.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2015 16:01:47 GMT -5
I'm amazed there is so much re: the opt-out. Seriously. There was quite literally zero time to enjoy the moment following the signing before people began whining about the opt out. From the sense of entitlement some Red Sox "fans" display, you'd think we were something other than a team coming off of three last place finishes, four managers and three general managers in the last four years and change. David Price could have played for any team. But, he made at least a three year commitment to us - Despite the fact that the Red Sox organization has not been for the last several years what Red Sox fans often make it out to be. We are not baseball nirvana - Not until we prove we can win on a consistent basis. So, more power to David Price for hedging his bet. If we want him to re-up at the end of three years, then we're going to need to have our stuff together. I'll be enjoying the moment every 5th day for the next 3 years minimum.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2015 16:03:47 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Red Sox announce 5:15 p.m. press conference.”
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2015 16:13:45 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: David Price signing official. Garin Cecchini DFA’ed.”
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 4, 2015 16:14:50 GMT -5
Yeah, yeah, markets, opt-out, economic theory, blah, blah ... the key to the deal for me: I'm gonna like David Price on the Red Sox quite a bit. He's got a good sense of social media, the praise from his teammates sounds almost like they are joking it's so over-the-top, and, most importantly, it's been a long time since the Sox had a true ace-level starter. Lester came close a couple of times, and Beckett got there at least one year, but it's just fun to have a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. Agree. I felt the moderators, who are good guys that try to do a hard job, should have broken those discusssions off on a different thread. There were a lot of posts on the subject that it really seemed to overshadow the excitement of the signing. I know that may sound like a criticism to some, but it's not, just my opinion.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2015 16:17:28 GMT -5
“@ianmbrowne: Price will wear Number 24, most famously donned by Dwight Evans and Manny Ramirez. redsox”
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Post by kyla13 on Dec 4, 2015 16:22:03 GMT -5
I'm amazed there is so much re: the opt-out. Seriously. There was quite literally zero time to enjoy the moment following the signing before people began whining about the opt out... I didn't necessarily see it as whining, but even if it was, didn't mind it initially. It was even informative at the start but then it just dragged on and on that I silently wished the mods moved it in a thread of it's own.
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Post by heisenberg on Dec 4, 2015 16:39:46 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: David Price signing official. Garin Cecchini DFA’ed.” That's rough. He'll probably revive his career in Oakland though.
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 4, 2015 17:04:06 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: David Price signing official. Garin Cecchini DFA’ed.” Another prospect I wasted time on learning how to pronounce and spell their name. My new policy will be, If I can't spell it or pronounce it, it's nickname city. Some on staff hate that , so delete away.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 17:08:56 GMT -5
How much did theoretical market value did Cecchini have? 30-40 million?
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2015 17:13:19 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: David Price signing official. Garin Cecchini DFA’ed.” Another prospect I wasted time on learning how to pronounce and spell their name. My new policy will be, If I can't spell it or pronounce it, it's nickname city. Some on staff hate that , so delete away. This is the best grumpy old man post ever.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2015 17:17:51 GMT -5
How much did theoretical market value did Cecchini have? 30-40 million? Even after his stellar 2013 season, he came in at #74 on the BA top 100. So closer to $13m or so (adjusted for inflation) at his peak.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2015 17:33:16 GMT -5
Hazen is just here for the food
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Post by juanpena on Dec 4, 2015 18:10:05 GMT -5
Another prospect I wasted time on learning how to pronounce and spell their name. My new policy will be, If I can't spell it or pronounce it, it's nickname city. Some on staff hate that , so delete away. This is the best grumpy old man post ever. It's amazing how many people on this board and SOSH can't spell Sonny Gray correctly.
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