SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/25-4/28 Red Sox vs. Braves Series Thread
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2016 21:07:35 GMT -5
Can someone give me a legit probability of a win tomorrow with Owens starting? I'm at just under 30% but I think that's high.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 28, 2016 21:22:35 GMT -5
Let's rally and steal that one!
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 28, 2016 21:29:29 GMT -5
Can someone give me a legit probability of a win tomorrow with Owens starting? I'm at just under 30% but I think that's high. The MFY had been terrible vs LHP but on the other hand, we have a wild flyball LHP pitcher in Fenway so he maybe the cure to their ailments. Can't say I'm confident too.
|
|
|
Post by bosox89 on Apr 28, 2016 21:38:36 GMT -5
0-5 when Buchholz starts and 0-6 when Chris Young starts.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 28, 2016 21:51:30 GMT -5
Looking forward to when Clay starts to string together good games in May and June and folks around here can say how he is among the best pitchers in baseball....cause I am over this guy already.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 28, 2016 22:08:16 GMT -5
What? Bogaerts is fine. You realize he was the #29 position player in the MLB in fWAR this season entering tonight, right? And he's still 23? I enjoy home runs and power too, but I would rather see him having success up there with a balanced approach than swinging out of his shoes. I don't put much stock into league-awards based on strange voting, but even still, the guy won the AL Silver Slugger at his position last year at 22 years old. Of course I realize all of those things, but with his current swing he's not going to tap into the raw power he has. I do think he's working on it. He's pulling the ball and walking more this year and striking out and popping up less, which is some real progress. Of course, small sample size, but there are some very positive signs. His GB% is a little high, but one step at a time. Besides that, even if the home runs don't come a lot more, which I think they may, he's already a very very good hitter.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Apr 28, 2016 22:08:46 GMT -5
Buchholz is not locating and very hittable.
Maybe a stint in the bullpen would give him the time he needs to work things out mechanically,
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2016 22:37:17 GMT -5
Of course I realize all of those things, but with his current swing he's not going to tap into the raw power he has. I do think he's working on it. He's pulling the ball and walking more this year and striking out and popping up less, which is some real progress. Of course, small sample size, but there are some very positive signs. His GB% is a little high, but one step at a time. Besides that, even if the home runs don't come a lot more, which I think they may, he's already a very very good hitter. Bogaerts has lately become a very different player than the one we thought he was going to be-- instead of power, patience and fringe defense, he's been a high average, mediocre patience/power, good baserunning and defense player. I still can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but he's still been a very good player, so it's hard to complain too much.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,828
|
Post by nomar on Apr 28, 2016 22:56:50 GMT -5
I do think he's working on it. He's pulling the ball and walking more this year and striking out and popping up less, which is some real progress. Of course, small sample size, but there are some very positive signs. His GB% is a little high, but one step at a time. Besides that, even if the home runs don't come a lot more, which I think they may, he's already a very very good hitter. Bogaerts has lately become a very different player than the one we thought he was going to be-- instead of power, patience and fringe defense, he's been a high average, mediocre patience/power, good baserunning and defense player. I still can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but he's still been a very good player, so it's hard to complain too much. Yeah it's like can you be angry that a 3-4 WAR guy isn't a 7 WAR player? The thing with Bogaerts is that you know that 7 WAR player is somewhere right there. I think there's a solid chance he'll eventually figure out how to start mashing again.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 29, 2016 0:56:42 GMT -5
One positive aspect about it is that Bogaerts has dramatically lowered his floor with the new style of play, and if the offense progresses, which with his makeup and past performance is a reasonable hope, he could be an even more special player than we originally had hoped. Also at his current pace, which seems sustainable, he actually will be around a 7 WAR player. Again though, it's early.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Apr 29, 2016 1:27:01 GMT -5
Xander was a 4.6 bWAR player last year as a 22 year old. I don't think he's peaked yet.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 29, 2016 3:03:13 GMT -5
Can't wait for Pablo to get back. [...] Sorry for the sarcasm [...] Um, dude, ...
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 29, 2016 3:04:38 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 29, 2016 5:21:29 GMT -5
I do think he's working on it. He's pulling the ball and walking more this year and striking out and popping up less, which is some real progress. Of course, small sample size, but there are some very positive signs. His GB% is a little high, but one step at a time. Besides that, even if the home runs don't come a lot more, which I think they may, he's already a very very good hitter. Bogaerts has lately become a very different player than the one we thought he was going to be-- instead of power, patience and fringe defense, he's been a high average, mediocre patience/power, good baserunning and defense player. I still can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but he's still been a very good player, so it's hard to complain too much. His baserunning may be better than good ... I'm sort of amazed at how good he's getting there. He somehow makes it look so easy to score from first on a double, and he's stealing bases pretty easily, too. And he never, ever seems to make an out. I'm starting to think that Xander's one of those guys with a genius-level baseball IQ that steals value in a lot of ways. Again, a little different from the guy we thought we knew as a prospect, but if you combine that with his talent, I dunno ... we may have a 7+ WAR per season player, after all.
|
|
|
Post by rafael on Apr 29, 2016 6:57:37 GMT -5
After a bunch of stinkers, I'd say Buchholz's spot in the rotation is in jeopardy with E-Rod coming back from injury.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2016 7:27:02 GMT -5
After a bunch of stinkers, I'd say Buchholz's spot in the rotation is in jeopardy with E-Rod coming back from injury. It really isn't. Owens will be optioned.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 29, 2016 7:39:05 GMT -5
Seemed last night we got real unlucky @ the plate. Every out seemed to be hit hard, right at someone. Bradley just missed that homer to right. Joe West not verbally calling Bogey "safe" @ second. Buch walking guys hitting .150.
|
|
|
Post by bosox89 on Apr 29, 2016 8:08:37 GMT -5
If Owens had a pulse Buchholz would be close to hitting the phony DL. His starts are very clearly holding us back.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 29, 2016 8:15:49 GMT -5
Buchholz still has a good half season of crappy starts before I start thinking of doing something about it. It's much more likely that he figures it out than to get improvements from elsewhere.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 29, 2016 8:42:13 GMT -5
Buchholz still has a good half season of crappy starts before I start thinking of doing something about it. It's much more likely that he figures it out than to get improvements from elsewhere. Agreed. His veto isn't bad, and his stuff is still mostly there. He seems to be having a problem commanding pitches in the zone from inning to inning and getting too much of the plate at some inopportune moments. He's a feel pitcher so I'm hoping he gets that back. Also, I remember in past years he used to have that patch of rosin on his left arm which he would tap before gripping he ball for each pitch. I've not noticed it this year.
|
|
|
Post by huskies15 on Apr 29, 2016 8:47:55 GMT -5
Now he just rubs his gross haircut before the pitch.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 29, 2016 8:51:30 GMT -5
They obviously know more than me. He seems like the kind of pitcher that will make the Yankees suddenly get well at the plate. I'd feel a bit better about the Fangraphs prediction of Tanaka wasn't the opposing pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by station13 on Apr 29, 2016 9:23:30 GMT -5
Buchholz still has a good half season of crappy starts before I start thinking of doing something about it. It's much more likely that he figures it out than to get improvements from elsewhere. I hope we don't have to bring that up again this time next year or the year after. Get rid of the fool.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 29, 2016 10:47:09 GMT -5
Honestly, everyone freaks out about Buchholz being predictably unpredictable, but is he really? This happens every single time he comes a half season. He starts slow and finishes strong. See 2012: First half ERA: 5.56, Second half ERA: 3.76 (FIP dropped from 5.5 to 3.97). In 2014 the ERA only dropped from 5.46 to 5.26, but his FIP dropped from 4.6 to 3.5 and xFIP fell to 3.92.
2014 was by far his worst season and it seems like he got some pretty bad luck, he's literally never in his career been close to as bad as he has been so far this year. Pretty ridiculous to give up so early when we all know what he can be like when he turns it on, and when we know it's more likely than not that he will at some point this year figure it out.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Apr 29, 2016 14:25:46 GMT -5
There were 5 (count them 5) players with 7+ fWAR last year. Harper, Trout, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, Votto.
The chances of Bogaerts, who has yet to put up a season of 800 OPS being a 7 WAR player are black swan territory.
If you took most of the posts seriously on this board, it must come as a shock that the Red Sox ever lose. Get a grip, people
|
|
|