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Post by deepjohn on Jul 16, 2016 19:05:47 GMT -5
Well, Machiavellianism is an alternative system of logic; it is the logic of popularity, dominance and duplicity. The Devers bid sets the market (popularity). Once Beane has Devers in hand then he can go to the others and say (dominance), I have a bid from the Red Sox I am prepared to accept unless you can give me [insert demand] (duplicity). It's sort of what the Sox did with Andrew Miller. They got a bid from DDo that DDo thought was a done deal, then used that to demand Erod from Baltimore. Do opposing GM's need actual bids from other GM's in order to claim that they do to other teams? I mean can't Beane just lie and say that there is a bid from the Red Sox in order to instill fear and jack up the price, even if the Red Sox didn't make an offer? (I imagine that a team might have to be in on the lie) Either way, you can run into a scenario where the Red Sox are in on a lie against another team, or a situation where they make a fake offer to Beane to drive up the price and get called out on it and potentially rescinding the offer if it were accepted. Either way it could strain our relationship with other teams. Yeah, GMs expect to work with each other, or for each other, for a long time. So fake offer == not good. But the Devers offer would not be fake. DDo would know that Beane would never accept it, but that wouldn't make it fake, and it would still strengthen Beane's hand in dealing from a position of strength.
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Post by digit on Jul 16, 2016 20:46:21 GMT -5
I don't understand the logic. Either Devers is one of the top bids, and you risk having to actually make a trade you don't want to. Or, he's not, and it doesn't make a difference. You're making the assumption that the person who thinks Teheran is an ace worth giving up Moncada and Benitendi actually has sound logic. The presumption here is 'by bidding something that you are absolutely certain that the other person will not accept, you're helping drive up the price'. This, however, only really helps to drive up the price -if- you're an early bidder trying to set the market. If you jump in with a bid -so- high that nobody tops it, you run the risk of being left holding the bag. And if you're a late bidder, you're running the risk that you actually -have- the very piece that the other person wants. It's a damn foolish idea to be so certain that the other person won't accept that you make the offer, but then again, like I said, you're trying to perceive the logic of someone who argues Julio Teheran is an ace. This all smacks of someone who's tried pulling this trick on people in too many fantasy sports leagues, and that works -only- when people don't actually know you, I think. People who -do- know you, over the years, are going to get wise to you, spread the word, and presto, you suddenly have a much much harder time making deals, and eventually, on your way out of the league.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2016 20:50:52 GMT -5
Do opposing GM's need actual bids from other GM's in order to claim that they do to other teams? I mean can't Beane just lie and say that there is a bid from the Red Sox in order to instill fear and jack up the price, even if the Red Sox didn't make an offer? (I imagine that a team might have to be in on the lie) Either way, you can run into a scenario where the Red Sox are in on a lie against another team, or a situation where they make a fake offer to Beane to drive up the price and get called out on it and potentially rescinding the offer if it were accepted. Either way it could strain our relationship with other teams. Yeah, GMs expect to work with each other, or for each other, for a long time. So fake offer == not good. But the Devers offer would not be fake. DDo would know that Beane would never accept it, but that wouldn't make it fake, and it would still strengthen Beane's hand in dealing from a position of strength. Would never accept Devers for Hill? Come on he would jump on that ASAP. No way Beane gets a better prospect than Devers for Hill.
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Rich Hill
Jul 16, 2016 21:33:01 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by bigpapiortiz on Jul 16, 2016 21:33:01 GMT -5
Thankfully Erod pitched well today. Close the thread, DD is looking for bullpen help if anything.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 16, 2016 21:43:11 GMT -5
I don't understand the logic. Either Devers is one of the top bids, and you risk having to actually make a trade you don't want to. Or, he's not, and it doesn't make a difference. You're making the assumption that the person who thinks Teheran is an ace worth giving up Moncada and Benitendi actually has sound logic. The presumption here is 'by bidding something that you are absolutely certain that the other person will not accept, you're helping drive up the price'. This, however, only really helps to drive up the price -if- you're an early bidder trying to set the market. If you jump in with a bid -so- high that nobody tops it, you run the risk of being left holding the bag. And if you're a late bidder, you're running the risk that you actually -have- the very piece that the other person wants. It's a damn foolish idea to be so certain that the other person won't accept that you make the offer, but then again, like I said, you're trying to perceive the logic of someone who argues Julio Teheran is an ace. This all smacks of someone who's tried pulling this trick on people in too many fantasy sports leagues, and that works -only- when people don't actually know you, I think. People who -do- know you, over the years, are going to get wise to you, spread the word, and presto, you suddenly have a much much harder time making deals, and eventually, on your way out of the league. I haven't done any fantasy sports league. I just like to predict what the GMs will do, sometimes using sources I have, and sometimes just by extrapolating. I do try to keep my own ego or opinions out of it, because those things make for less effective predictions. For example, if DDo had only two options for making a deal, Teheran or Pomeranz (since Teheran and Pomeranz were the only two 3+ WAR pitchers available who were under contract through at least 2018). And if Coppy had asked for $107M in excess value for 4.5 years of Teheran (Moncada/Kopech/Devers OR Moncada/Johnson/Benintendi) Then DDo would do well to get 2.5 years of Pomeranz for less than half of that, which would be Espinoza (about $50M), assuming Moncada and Benintendi were not on the table, as DDo had said publicly. Using a similar analysis, Rich Hill should cost more than the equivalent of Devers. So we'll see.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2016 22:13:52 GMT -5
You're making the assumption that the person who thinks Teheran is an ace worth giving up Moncada and Benitendi actually has sound logic. The presumption here is 'by bidding something that you are absolutely certain that the other person will not accept, you're helping drive up the price'. This, however, only really helps to drive up the price -if- you're an early bidder trying to set the market. If you jump in with a bid -so- high that nobody tops it, you run the risk of being left holding the bag. And if you're a late bidder, you're running the risk that you actually -have- the very piece that the other person wants. It's a damn foolish idea to be so certain that the other person won't accept that you make the offer, but then again, like I said, you're trying to perceive the logic of someone who argues Julio Teheran is an ace. This all smacks of someone who's tried pulling this trick on people in too many fantasy sports leagues, and that works -only- when people don't actually know you, I think. People who -do- know you, over the years, are going to get wise to you, spread the word, and presto, you suddenly have a much much harder time making deals, and eventually, on your way out of the league. I haven't done any fantasy sports league. I just like to predict what the GMs will do, sometimes using sources I have, and sometimes just by extrapolating. I do try to keep my own ego or opinions out of it, because those things make for less effective predictions. For example, if DDo had only two options for making a deal, Teheran or Pomeranz (since Teheran and Pomeranz were the only two 3+ WAR pitchers available who were under contract through at least 2018). And if Coppy had asked for $107M in excess value for 4.5 years of Teheran (Moncada/Kopech/Devers OR Moncada/Johnson/Benintendi) Then DDo would do well to get 2.5 years of Pomeranz for less than half of that, which would be Espinoza (about $50M), assuming Moncada and Benintendi were not on the table, as DDo had said publicly. Using a similar analysis, Rich Hill should cost more than the equivalent of Devers. So we'll see. I wasn't too happy that Dombrowski paid such a steep price for Pomeranz but he would have been colossally stupid to trade Devers to rent Rich Hill. I think you're just about the only one who thinks that Teheran is an ace. Either that or you're out to troll everybody or come up with some crazy ideas just to say "Look at me!".
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 16, 2016 22:36:54 GMT -5
I haven't done any fantasy sports league. I just like to predict what the GMs will do, sometimes using sources I have, and sometimes just by extrapolating. I do try to keep my own ego or opinions out of it, because those things make for less effective predictions. For example, if DDo had only two options for making a deal, Teheran or Pomeranz (since Teheran and Pomeranz were the only two 3+ WAR pitchers available who were under contract through at least 2018). And if Coppy had asked for $107M in excess value for 4.5 years of Teheran (Moncada/Kopech/Devers OR Moncada/Johnson/Benintendi) Then DDo would do well to get 2.5 years of Pomeranz for less than half of that, which would be Espinoza (about $50M), assuming Moncada and Benintendi were not on the table, as DDo had said publicly. Using a similar analysis, Rich Hill should cost more than the equivalent of Devers. So we'll see. I wasn't too happy that Dombrowski paid such a steep price for Pomeranz but he would have been colossally stupid to trade Devers to rent Rich Hill. I think you're just about the only one who thinks that Teheran is an ace. Either that or you're out to troll everybody or come up with some crazy ideas just to say "Look at me!". Bud, I'm just using Cameron's estimate of 3+ WAR for Teheran. And I'm sharing with you what my sources say Coppy was asking (which was 4 WAR/$107M) as a way of understanding DDo's two options to make a deal for 3+ WAR in the market. If you think Cameron and Coppy are trolling you, they've got twitter addresses.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2016 22:58:52 GMT -5
I wasn't too happy that Dombrowski paid such a steep price for Pomeranz but he would have been colossally stupid to trade Devers to rent Rich Hill. I think you're just about the only one who thinks that Teheran is an ace. Either that or you're out to troll everybody or come up with some crazy ideas just to say "Look at me!". Bud, I'm just using Cameron's estimate of 3+ WAR for Teheran. And I'm sharing with you what my sources say Coppy was asking (which was 4 WAR/$107M) as a way of understanding DDo's two options to make a deal for 3+ WAR in the market. If you think Cameron and Coppy are trolling you, they've got twitter addresses. As others point out you can ask for anybody when you make a deal. That doesn't mean anything. There was no way the Sox were going to pay that price for Teheran and there are plenty of other stats that point to Teheran being a good mid range starter having a year where his fly balls aren't leaving the big yard and a year where his strand rate is kind of high. If the choice was Teheran or nothing at all, at the price you mentioned, I'd hope our GM would be smart enough to do nothing at all. The Red Sox invested $63 million in Moncada. He is developing just as they hoped he would. He isn't going anywhere unless 26 year old Pedro Martinez is available - and Teheran is nowhere near that.
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Post by dridiot on Jul 16, 2016 23:38:39 GMT -5
I don't understand the logic. Either Devers is one of the top bids, and you risk having to actually make a trade you don't want to. Or, he's not, and it doesn't make a difference. There are a lot of bidders. The other bidders will drive up the price themselves. I don't see why the Red Sox have to take on risk to do this. Well, Machiavellianism is an alternative system of logic; it is the logic of popularity, dominance and duplicity. The Devers bid sets the market (popularity). Once Beane has Devers in hand then he can go to the others and say (dominance), I have a bid from the Red Sox I am prepared to accept unless you can give me [insert demand] (duplicity). It's sort of what the Sox did with Andrew Miller. They got a bid from DDo that DDo thought was a done deal, then used that to demand Erod from Baltimore. You gave me a theory when I asked for a clarification on your logic, i.e. the logic of your argument. Your response also doesn't really address my issues. (Also, Machiavellianism, whatever it is, is not "an alternate form of logic" despite what your linked article thinks. This is a semantic bait-and-switch and I'm not falling for it.) The Miller example doesn't really apply, because presumably DDo actually wanted Miller and made a bid accordingly. Anyway, I'm not interested in any Machivavellian schemes to win arguments on the internet, so if you won't clarify your reasoning it's really not a problem for me.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2016 11:19:33 GMT -5
You're making the assumption that the person who thinks Teheran is an ace worth giving up Moncada and Benitendi actually has sound logic. The presumption here is 'by bidding something that you are absolutely certain that the other person will not accept, you're helping drive up the price'. This, however, only really helps to drive up the price -if- you're an early bidder trying to set the market. If you jump in with a bid -so- high that nobody tops it, you run the risk of being left holding the bag. And if you're a late bidder, you're running the risk that you actually -have- the very piece that the other person wants. It's a damn foolish idea to be so certain that the other person won't accept that you make the offer, but then again, like I said, you're trying to perceive the logic of someone who argues Julio Teheran is an ace. This all smacks of someone who's tried pulling this trick on people in too many fantasy sports leagues, and that works -only- when people don't actually know you, I think. People who -do- know you, over the years, are going to get wise to you, spread the word, and presto, you suddenly have a much much harder time making deals, and eventually, on your way out of the league. I haven't done any fantasy sports league. I just like to predict what the GMs will do, sometimes using sources I have, and sometimes just by extrapolating. I do try to keep my own ego or opinions out of it, because those things make for less effective predictions. For example, if DDo had only two options for making a deal, Teheran or Pomeranz (since Teheran and Pomeranz were the only two 3+ WAR pitchers available who were under contract through at least 2018). And if Coppy had asked for $107M in excess value for 4.5 years of Teheran (Moncada/Kopech/Devers OR Moncada/Johnson/Benintendi) Then DDo would do well to get 2.5 years of Pomeranz for less than half of that, which would be Espinoza (about $50M), assuming Moncada and Benintendi were not on the table, as DDo had said publicly. Using a similar analysis, Rich Hill should cost more than the equivalent of Devers. So we'll see. If we're using a similar analysis, you should be talking about how much excess value Rich Hill has for about 10 starts.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2016 11:20:33 GMT -5
I wasn't too happy that Dombrowski paid such a steep price for Pomeranz but he would have been colossally stupid to trade Devers to rent Rich Hill. I think you're just about the only one who thinks that Teheran is an ace. Either that or you're out to troll everybody or come up with some crazy ideas just to say "Look at me!". Bud, I'm just using Cameron's estimate of 3+ WAR for Teheran. And I'm sharing with you what my sources say Coppy was asking (which was 4 WAR/$107M) as a way of understanding DDo's two options to make a deal for 3+ WAR in the market. If you think Cameron and Coppy are trolling you, they've got twitter addresses. You really consider 3-4 WAR an ace?
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Rich Hill
Jul 17, 2016 15:36:05 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 17, 2016 15:36:05 GMT -5
Rich Hill just removed from game after five pitches due to blister.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 17, 2016 16:42:44 GMT -5
Bud, I'm just using Cameron's estimate of 3+ WAR for Teheran. And I'm sharing with you what my sources say Coppy was asking (which was 4 WAR/$107M) as a way of understanding DDo's two options to make a deal for 3+ WAR in the market. If you think Cameron and Coppy are trolling you, they've got twitter addresses. You really consider 3-4 WAR an ace? Well, the top 30 pitchers are called "aces" by analogy. There are 30 teams, one "ace" per team. The bottom of the top 30 have just about 4 WAR of value. Coppy values him as an "ace", at 4 WAR/$107M excess value. I'll say again, I try to keep my own opinions out of it. Since my opinion and a buck will buy you a cup of coffee.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 17, 2016 17:00:30 GMT -5
I haven't done any fantasy sports league. I just like to predict what the GMs will do, sometimes using sources I have, and sometimes just by extrapolating. I do try to keep my own ego or opinions out of it, because those things make for less effective predictions. For example, if DDo had only two options for making a deal, Teheran or Pomeranz (since Teheran and Pomeranz were the only two 3+ WAR pitchers available who were under contract through at least 2018). And if Coppy had asked for $107M in excess value for 4.5 years of Teheran (Moncada/Kopech/Devers OR Moncada/Johnson/Benintendi) Then DDo would do well to get 2.5 years of Pomeranz for less than half of that, which would be Espinoza (about $50M), assuming Moncada and Benintendi were not on the table, as DDo had said publicly. Using a similar analysis, Rich Hill should cost more than the equivalent of Devers. So we'll see. If we're using a similar analysis, you should be talking about how much excess value Rich Hill has for about 10 starts. Well, he's at 2.5 WAR through 13 starts, so 2 WAR for 10 starts may seem fair on that proportion. Plus there's postseason, which could add another 5 starts. Hill's being paid $3M for that stretch, so it's a lot of excess value ($12-15M). With a 3x overpay, you can see why DDo said in an interview the ask for Teheran/Pomeranz/Hill "started with the same names" (Moncada/Benintendi/AE). Again, the Pomeranz deal looks ok by comparison, unless you don't make a deal (for a 3+ WAR pitcher) at all.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 17, 2016 18:58:45 GMT -5
“@buster_ESPN: Oakland's asking price for the Red Sox for Rich Hill was the same as San Diego's for Drew Pomeranz: Anderson Espinoza.”
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 17, 2016 20:07:01 GMT -5
“@buster_ESPN: Oakland's asking price for the Red Sox for Rich Hill was the same as San Diego's for Drew Pomeranz: Anderson Espinoza.” Thank you, Grandsalami. So now @buster_ESPN is another target for those who think this is trolling. On Baseball Tonight, Jim Bowden just said that the Sox are still bidding on Rich Hill. Maybe DDo is Machiavellian, as I tried to suggest. (Not in a bad way.)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2016 20:59:33 GMT -5
“@buster_ESPN: Oakland's asking price for the Red Sox for Rich Hill was the same as San Diego's for Drew Pomeranz: Anderson Espinoza.” Thank you, Grandsalami. So now @buster_ESPN is another target for those who think this is trolling. On Baseball Tonight, Jim Bowden just said that the Sox are still bidding on Rich Hill. Maybe DDo is Machiavellian, as I tried to suggest. (Not in a bad way.) It's all trolling. Only idiots participate.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 19, 2016 19:28:47 GMT -5
We know that DDo made an offer to Beane for Rich Hill that did not include Benny/Moncada/AE. Wonder what it was?
We know that DDo was looking to trade Buchholz at the deadline. Buch wants to start, and he won't consent to going down to the minors.
But Buchholz has negative surplus value of $4-7M.
So let's say Buchholz plus $4M cash to Oakland for Rich Hill. Beane has the chance to turn Buch around and make Buch's option valuable.
But that still leaves Beane short the surplus value he would have had this year for Hill, figure $15M.
It also leaves Beane short what he could have gotten as a qualifying offer pick for Hill, figure $15M.
So Beane needs surplus value of about $30M. That would be a pitcher ranked around #37. Kopech is #89 BA/#43 KL.
But separately I have guaranteed Kopech is untouchable.
That would leave a position player ranked around #50 -- Devers is #18.
But Buch plus cash, plus Devers is..... too much going back to Beane. Devers is worth $60M at #18!!
This is where things get interesting.
To be continued ...
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larrycook
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Rich Hill
Jul 19, 2016 22:22:05 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Jul 19, 2016 22:22:05 GMT -5
It is a seller's market and as long as dombrowski is in the market, the prices will continue to rise.
A trade for hill is going to be very expensive.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 20, 2016 9:04:53 GMT -5
So Beane needs surplus value of about $30M. That would be a pitcher ranked around #37. Kopech is #89 BA/#43 KL. But separately I have guaranteed Kopech is untouchable. Right but that was literally based on nothing so I think we can ignore it for the purposes of this exercise.
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nomar
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Rich Hill
Jul 20, 2016 10:28:35 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Jul 20, 2016 10:28:35 GMT -5
GMs could probably care less about BP's or any else's prospect rankings. So everyone will have a different guess on what each prospect's surplus value is.
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