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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2016 13:11:25 GMT -5
And for trading away Anderson Espinoza for a number five starter/bullpen arm? That sure showed the priority of keeping and developing the pitching pipeline. They traded him for what they thought was #1/#2 starter. You can criticize them for not getting what they thought they were getting (I still think they did), but you can't take the short-term results and fold them back into their priorities. It's like saying they thought Margot was a non-prospect because they traded him for a below-average closer.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 8, 2016 14:09:18 GMT -5
I just caught this from a couple days back. If his changeup has a lot of spin and generates fly balls, is it fair to call it a changeup? Or is he throwing a secondary or two-seam fastball? Or is he trying to throw a change and it's ending up with a fastball effect (albeit still successful)? Something I'll be interested in hearing about when more eyes are on him.
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Post by jmei on Nov 8, 2016 17:27:48 GMT -5
It's only 14 changeups thrown, which means maybe a couple batted balls, which means the bit about it generating more fly balls than the average changeup is literally meaningless.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 8, 2016 18:43:04 GMT -5
I just caught this from a couple days back. If his changeup has a lot of spin and generates fly balls, is it fair to call it a changeup? Or is he throwing a secondary or two-seam fastball? Or is he trying to throw a change and it's ending up with a fastball effect (albeit still successful)? Something I'll be interested in hearing about when more eyes are on him. I've been calling it a cut-change over the summer, for want of a better term. The idea being that it's thrown hard enough and with enough spin to have cut action, but it's sufficiently slower than his 98 MPH FB to look like a change. Buchholz developed a similar cut-change in 2015 with similar spin rate and movement, and similar speed differential from Buchholz's 92 MPH FB. That new change-up really made for Buchholz's great run there in 2015 (until he was hurt). And it also made for a stellar Buchholz in 2016, after he raised his arm slot. The Bannister strategy has been to go 4 seamer, curve, cutter, a la Pomeranz. That's what I see them doing with Kopech, so far. But all Kopech's pitches have much more velocity.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 20:53:04 GMT -5
Interesting that the stadium gun had him generally at 99 but the scouts had him at 100 five times. Also, pitch fx shows no changeups and Kopech said he threw some: "Pitching against the best guys in Minor League Baseball, it's fun to compete with them and see how your stuff matches up," Kopech said. "I tried to mix in some changeups, mix in some sliders, change eye levels. Most guys try to sit on my fastball, so I tried to put my other pitches in early to throw them off and keep them off my fastball." Pitch/fx does say he threw 2 changeups in the 3rd. Inning Pitch No Vel Hm Vm 3 FB 7 100.7 -7.4 12.2 4 FB 8 98.6 -7.5 10.7 3 CH 2 93.3 -9.0 6.0 3 SL 1 91.8 -0.2 2.3 4 SL 2 88.6 0.4 0.3 Is pitch/fx different than gameday PFX pitching data ? Also, those sliders average .2 Hm and 1.0 Vm, a tad unusual, no ? Brooksbaeball: His slider is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders, is much harder than usual, has primarily 12-6 movement and has some two-plane movement. I always picture sliders as primarily horizontal pitches. I don't think I've ever seen "12-6" used in connection with a slider. I could be way off here though. EDITADD: Yes it's different. I was fooled by the PFX in Gameday: www.milb.com/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2016_11_05_afewin_afwwin_1&mode=gameday
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2016 13:11:29 GMT -5
Pitch/fx does say he threw 2 changeups in the 3rd. Inning Pitch No Vel Hm Vm 3 FB 7 100.7 -7.4 12.2 4 FB 8 98.6 -7.5 10.7 3 CH 2 93.3 -9.0 6.0 3 SL 1 91.8 -0.2 2.3 4 SL 2 88.6 0.4 0.3 Is pitch/fx different than gameday PFX pitching data ? Also, those sliders average .2 Hm and 1.0 Vm, a tad unusual, no ? Brooksbaeball: His slider is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders, is much harder than usual, has primarily 12-6 movement and has some two-plane movement. I always picture sliders as primarily horizontal pitches. I don't think I've ever seen "12-6" used in connection with a slider. I could be way off here though. EDITADD: Yes it's different. I was fooled by the PFX in Gameday: www.milb.com/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2016_11_05_afewin_afwwin_1&mode=gamedayKopech's slider is almost a gyroball, which is actually sort of the goal -- the hand opens a doorknob as you release it, giving it bullet spin. Hence the movement scores close to zero (a perfect gyroball would be 0 / 0). And sliders can indeed break anywhere from 12-6 to sweeping. It depends on arm slot and how close you get to the bullet spin. But the pitch is defined by having low rotation in the direction of home plate.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2016 13:18:21 GMT -5
I just caught this from a couple days back. If his changeup has a lot of spin and generates fly balls, is it fair to call it a changeup? Or is he throwing a secondary or two-seam fastball? Or is he trying to throw a change and it's ending up with a fastball effect (albeit still successful)? Something I'll be interested in hearing about when more eyes are on him. I've been calling it a cut-change over the summer, for want of a better term. The idea being that it's thrown hard enough and with enough spin to have cut action, but it's sufficiently slower than his 98 MPH FB to look like a change. Buchholz developed a similar cut-change in 2015 with similar spin rate and movement, and similar speed differential from Buchholz's 92 MPH FB. That new change-up really made for Buchholz's great run there in 2015 (until he was hurt). And it also made for a stellar Buchholz in 2016, after he raised his arm slot. The Bannister strategy has been to go 4 seamer, curve, cutter, a la Pomeranz. That's what I see them doing with Kopech, so far. But all Kopech's pitches have much more velocity. It has a little bit less armside run than his FB, which is unusual for a changeup, but by no means unheard of. Buchholz's change always did that, from the get-go, and quite a bit more than Kopech's. Nor is his velocity differential unusual. You can call it a hard, slightly cutting change, but it's definitely a change.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 9, 2016 13:50:41 GMT -5
And for trading away Anderson Espinoza for a number five starter/bullpen arm? That sure showed the priority of keeping and developing the pitching pipeline. They traded him for what they thought was #1/#2 starter. You can criticize them for not getting what they thought they were getting (I still think they did), but you can't take the short-term results and fold them back into their priorities. It's like saying they thought Margot was a non-prospect because they traded him for a below-average closer. Eric I would be interested in reading your opinion on Pomeranz.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 9, 2016 14:00:46 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 9, 2016 14:18:28 GMT -5
It has a little bit less armside run than his FB, which is unusual for a changeup, but by no means unheard of. Buchholz's change always did that, from the get-go, and quite a bit more than Kopech's. Nor is his velocity differential unusual. You can call it a hard, slightly cutting change, but it's definitely a change. Yep, that's why I'm so interested in seeing it. Buchholz's change was regarded from the beginning as being a potential plus pitch even with (because of?) the acknowledgement that it played differently from a usual change. Is Kopech's change weird? Or just bad? Or not really even a changeup at all? It's kind of a mystery pitch right now, and it really changes his projection depending on the answer.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 9, 2016 17:44:33 GMT -5
It has a little bit less armside run than his FB, which is unusual for a changeup, but by no means unheard of. Buchholz's change always did that, from the get-go, and quite a bit more than Kopech's. Nor is his velocity differential unusual. You can call it a hard, slightly cutting change, but it's definitely a change. Yep, that's why I'm so interested in seeing it. Buchholz's change was regarded from the beginning as being a potential plus pitch even with (because of?) the acknowledgement that it played differently from a usual change. Is Kopech's change weird? Or just bad? Or not really even a changeup at all? It's kind of a mystery pitch right now, and it really changes his projection depending on the answer. I hope that it is not like Beckett's change which, as I recall, was about 90 and generated few swings and misses. To me his was more like a bp FB with about 6mph separation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 9, 2016 21:47:22 GMT -5
Only 7 games remaining + the championship game (they have a big lead in their division) so, likely 2 more Kopech starts. Then the abyss which is total baseball blackout in the US.
Action resumes the 11th.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2016 23:34:59 GMT -5
Yep, that's why I'm so interested in seeing it. Buchholz's change was regarded from the beginning as being a potential plus pitch even with (because of?) the acknowledgement that it played differently from a usual change. Is Kopech's change weird? Or just bad? Or not really even a changeup at all? It's kind of a mystery pitch right now, and it really changes his projection depending on the answer. I hope that it is not like Beckett's change which, as I recall, was about 90 and generated few swings and misses. To me his was more like a bp FB with about 6mph separation. We'll, Beckett threw 1395 changeups measured by pich/fx through 2011. Comparing them to Kopech's 14 ... Beckett -5.5 mph, 2.5" more armside run than FB, 6.2" less rise. Kopech, -7.7 mph, 1.3" less armside run than FB, 3.8" less rise. (Average 2016 movement, 1.1 more run, 4.4 less rise) But Beckett's change was an effective pitch. My study of changeup effectiveness strongly suggested that throwing an atypical changeup was good. All things being equal, the least effective velocity difference was the average difference (down to the first decimal point), and that was in a regression analysis with lots of interactions among the variables and a resulting complex equation. My hypothesis is that batters usually do pick up the spin on a changeup, and then swing at a generic changeup to at least some degree. Any variation from standard change velocity throws the timing off and leads to weak contact. Kopech's change is going to be coming about 3.5 mph faster than expected by muscle memory, 2.4" more to his glove side (in on LHB), and 0.6" higher. There were two guys who threw hard last year and whose changeup in 2016 were really similar to Kopech. Robbie Ray threw 94.6 and was -7.7, 0.3 (relative cut), 3.9. Brooks says his change was a real worm killer with a lot more GB than average. Martin Perez threw 93.5, and was 8.6, 2.1, 2.8. Brooks had no characterization of his. Given all of that, changeup command appears to be most of changeup effectiveness.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 11, 2016 7:15:27 GMT -5
Only 7 games remaining + the championship game (they have a big lead in their division) so, likely 2 more Kopech starts. Then the abyss which is total baseball blackout in the US. Action resumes the 11th. Why on earth do YOU of all people care if baseball is done in the U.S.? I'm sure you can stream LIDOM games at least, no? Aussie league starts soon much closer to your time zone, although probably won't be any Sox down there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 11, 2016 10:42:44 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 11, 2016 11:29:58 GMT -5
This is disappointing as I have read that he made progress in reducing the effort in his delivery. But if this scout is right and he becomes the next Chapman or Kimbrel, I'd be alright with that. The one thing that worries me about slotting him in as a reliever is that his walks tend to come in bunches from one game to the next. Would someone with more experience watching Kopech be able to confirm: Does his control come and go throughout and outing? Or does he have it one outing and not have it the next?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 11, 2016 14:46:02 GMT -5
This is disappointing as I have read that he made progress in reducing the effort in his delivery. But if this scout is right and he becomes the next Chapman or Kimbrel, I'd be alright with that. The one thing that worries me about slotting him in as a reliever is that his walks tend to come in bunches from one game to the next. Would someone with more experience watching Kopech be able to confirm: Does his control come and go throughout and outing? Or does he have it one outing and not have it the next? I wouldn't worry about it, BP's prospect coverage is not what it used to be and I'm actually surprised that someone who isn't a total stats geek actually has a subscription to it. Also, there's pretty much zero chance that it was written by a scout. Callis: "The consensus among scouts is that he's the best pitching prospect in the AFL" and projected reliever do not match. His delivery is far changed from when they drafted him and still somewhat jerky but much improved. When on, as he has been outing to outing so far in the AFL, he maintains command throughout the game. We'll have to wait until they loosen the pitch count to see if that holds late into games but if it's an issue there's nothing there that's all that difficult to work with, he's already made 90% of the change, his high school mechanics were flat out scary.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 11, 2016 15:14:37 GMT -5
This is disappointing as I have read that he made progress in reducing the effort in his delivery. But if this scout is right and he becomes the next Chapman or Kimbrel, I'd be alright with that. The one thing that worries me about slotting him in as a reliever is that his walks tend to come in bunches from one game to the next. Would someone with more experience watching Kopech be able to confirm: Does his control come and go throughout and outing? Or does he have it one outing and not have it the next? I wouldn't worry about it, BP's prospect coverage is not what it used to be and I'm actually surprised that someone who isn't a total stats geek actually has a subscription to it. Also, there's pretty much zero chance that it was written by a scout. Callis: "The consensus among scouts is that he's the best pitching prospect in the AFL" and projected reliever do not match. His delivery is far changed from when they drafted him and still somewhat jerky but much improved. When on, as he has been outing to outing so far in the AFL, he maintains command throughout the game. We'll have to wait until they loosen the pitch count to see if that holds late into games but if it's an issue there's nothing there that's all that difficult to work with, he's already made 90% of the change, his high school mechanics were flat out scary. 1) FWIW, Mauricio Rubio who left for 20-80 then went back wrote it. 2) The two opinions square in that they're opinions and people can differ. That's all.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 11, 2016 15:41:17 GMT -5
Happy Kopech Day! Pitching now... 59 pitches through the 3rd inning. 3 Ks/ 4 BBs / 1 HBP / 2 singles. 0 Rs.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 11, 2016 16:35:47 GMT -5
I wouldn't worry about it, BP's prospect coverage is not what it used to be and I'm actually surprised that someone who isn't a total stats geek actually has a subscription to it. Also, there's pretty much zero chance that it was written by a scout. Callis: "The consensus among scouts is that he's the best pitching prospect in the AFL" and projected reliever do not match. His delivery is far changed from when they drafted him and still somewhat jerky but much improved. When on, as he has been outing to outing so far in the AFL, he maintains command throughout the game. We'll have to wait until they loosen the pitch count to see if that holds late into games but if it's an issue there's nothing there that's all that difficult to work with, he's already made 90% of the change, his high school mechanics were flat out scary. Thanks for the reassurance. Since his inconsistencies are from start-to-start, he may not be the best option for the bullpen. Hopefully he shows that he can go more innings next year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 11, 2016 16:38:44 GMT -5
Happy Kopech Day! Pitching now... 59 pitches through the 3rd inning. 3 Ks/ 4 BBs / 1 HBP / 2 singles. 0 Rs. Final: 3.1 IP, 2H, 6BB, 2K, 1WP, 1HBP, 0ER 72 pitches and 33 strikes Appears he was extremely wild, yet his stuff was still effective
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 11, 2016 17:35:49 GMT -5
The intentional wildness to throw hitters off was a bit too extreme today.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 11, 2016 19:02:09 GMT -5
Happy Kopech Day! Pitching now... 59 pitches through the 3rd inning. 3 Ks/ 4 BBs / 1 HBP / 2 singles. 0 Rs. Final: 3.1 IP, 2H, 6BB, 2K, 1WP, 1HBP, 0ER 72 pitches and 33 strikes Appears he was extremely wild, yet his stuff was still effective I personally don't judge a young pitcher by walks or wildness. I think that's essentially random at the early stage, because there are so many confounding co-variables (experimenting, swing%, dead-arm, etc., etc.) Before today Kopech had seen 57 TBF in the AFL, with 1 BB and 21 Ks. Not sure what happened today, but I'll look at the pitchf/x tomorrow. It's the lack of hard contact and the high whiff % that I look for. I find most pitchers may have one, but not the other. Kopech has both in spades. I expect his walks to normalize in line with his K-BB%.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 11, 2016 19:57:11 GMT -5
I like to consider age as a major factor. He doesn't turn 21 until the end of April. In the league, the other two highly regarded pitching prospects, Montas turns 24 and Honeywell turns 22 both in March.
Of course, that's also a two way street. Some learn, some don't, some advance, some don't.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 11, 2016 20:47:48 GMT -5
I think his wildness was because his Michanics were out of whack. He kept missing to the right.
This is fixable.
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