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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2016 10:46:07 GMT -5
Of course, very few of the guys in those studies had a FB with velocity that would rank 2nd in MLB (of 382 pitchers with 40+ IP; he just edges Syndergaard) with movement that ties for 11th -- a combination almost unheard of, as the median rank of guys who threw 95 or harder was 177th (between Syndergaard and Herrera). Chapman is the movement leader of that group - and he ranks 47th. And then, of course, there's the strike %. If you remove the last game as an outlier, you've got ... Clayton Kershaw's strike % and FB movement (+2%), but he throws it at 98.7 instead of 93.8. Or ... Aroldis Chapman's FB, less 2.5% velocity but with 7% more movement, with an even better Strike % (Chapman ranked 19th). Chapman's FB was in a class by itself until Kopech showed up in the AFL with one that is potentially even better. He just needs to maintain the command he showed before his last start (and he could well regress), and reduce the days where he has no command at all to a more typical level (never for most guys, maybe once a year for others. Although I want to study that, maybe). I tend to go with the Jamesian idea that dominant pitchers (almost) never actually have bad games. Once I see that a pitcher is dominant (and of course, that's extremely rare), then I conclude the walks will not matter. I thought we could infer early on that Kopech is dominant from lack of hard contact and high whiff %. Now, we're seeing the pitchf/x to go with it. It's also why I think that with such a young pitcher, who is doing so much so early, when he has an apparent "bad" game, you can diagnose it backwards to a dead-arm injury. Yes, it could be called "mechanical" or "fixable" but that's sort of the same thing, with a young dominant pitcher. For a dominant pitcher, a dead-arm injury makes it look like the mechanics went wrong, when it's actually the swelling in the joint that's causing the problem. The dead-arm hypothesis is consistent with the two outlier starts being at the end of the two regular seasons. His post-season start for Salem was lousy, but the Strike % was a .583, which is only 1.1 SD below average. If he still had the dead arm, that shows he can at least throw some strikes in that condition -- even though he wasn't very effective. If we remove the three suspected dead-arm games, he went from .623 at Salem to .706 in the AFL. Chi-square has p < .03, statistically significant despite the AFL being just 16 IP. But if you look at the start-to-start rates and compare the two samples, it's p < .006 in a t-test. Which is to say the start-to-start consistency in the AFL reduces the odds of it being random by a factor of 5.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 17, 2016 15:31:30 GMT -5
In the early goings, if the games continue as they are now, Kopech will be watching the game on TV.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 17, 2016 17:44:31 GMT -5
Happy Kopech Day! 72% strikes (46/64). 6 Ks, 1 BB. 2 Rs in 5 IP. (flyball homer in the first inning, back to back line drive doubles in the second).
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Post by telson13 on Nov 17, 2016 18:13:04 GMT -5
Of course, even if he makes the BA top-20, it's something like a 20% chance that he becomes a 1 or 2. There's a strong suggestion that pitching prospects' prospects (heh heh) have improved with time, so maybe that number is low, but I doubt it's more than 33%. At least, he's a very good bet to be useful (over 70% in this analysis) camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html?m=1Of course, very few of the guys in those studies had a FB with velocity that would rank 2nd in MLB (of 382 pitchers with 40+ IP; he just edges Syndergaard) with movement that ties for 11th -- a combination almost unheard of, as the median rank of guys who threw 95 or harder was 177th (between Syndergaard and Herrera). Chapman is the movement leader of that group - and he ranks 47th. And then, of course, there's the strike %. If you remove the last game as an outlier, you've got ... Clayton Kershaw's strike % and FB movement (+2%), but he throws it at 98.7 instead of 93.8. Or ... Aroldis Chapman's FB, less 2.5% velocity but with 7% more movement, with an even better Strike % (Chapman ranked 19th). Chapman's FB was in a class by itself until Kopech showed up in the AFL with one that is potentially even better. He just needs to maintain the command he showed before his last start (and he could well regress), and reduce the days where he has no command at all to a more typical level (never for most guys, maybe once a year for others. Although I want to study that, maybe). Hahahaha! Geez, Eric, can't you just let me be conservative for once? Actually, I'm very high on Kopech, too, particularly given his AFL performance (although that FB velocity is over 4 innings, tops, so it's probably going to drop into the 97s when he's throwing 85-110 pitches per game instead of 45-60). Just speaking in historical generalities. You and I both know that generalities are only partially informative, and identifying positive (and negative) predictors is what allows fine-tuning, which is where the real analysis is. Blunt tools like population studies...well, I've said my piece at length on those before. I mean, I called Kopech a potential Syndergaard 2.0 last summer. Hell, he may be even better if he becomes a FB/SL/CH/CU guy. I agree 100% that he has several qualities that make him a better bet for success than the non-differentiated "buckets" in that, and other, studies. However, there's still a lot of risk tied up in his head-whacking, inconsistent-front foot, arm-heavy delivery. Hell, he's 20, so I'm actually pretty confident he'll remain a SP. Lots of time to sort that stuff out. I think he has "ace" (and most everyone who's argued that designation with me knows how selectively I use it) written all over him, as much as it can be for anyone still in the minors. I think he'll be up right around/shortly after the trade deadline in 2017. There's just a LONG way to go to perennial CY candidate. Given where I think he'll rank in the BA top-100 (15-30 range is my guess, post-AFL), in light of improvement in identifying top pitching prospects over time, his repertoire, "success" (i.e., average or better) rates, his pitch f/x data, his AFL (AA equivalent and a very hitting-friendly one) performance, etc., I'll make a semi-scientific estimate of his becoming a TOR starter at about 30%, maybe as high as 40%. I'd also put his "failure" rate at less than 15%...because, barring catastrophic injury, he's essentially guaranteed a (late-inning) bullpen role by virtue of his stuff. And, at risk of being annoyingly iterative, I think he goes 2.25/2.25/2.5 (ERA/FIP/xFIP...I think his HR suppression has some skill component) in AA, goes to AAA around mid-June, and is in MLB for the first-place Red Sox by August 15. Sign Rich Hill, trade Buchholz, extend Pomeranz on a 4-year deal, inclusive, Wright stays as the swingman. Kopech up, trade Pomeranz with his shiny new, relatively low-cost contract to a contender at the deadline or next offseason. Wright to the rotation, Kopech to the bullpen post-deadline (if Pomeranz is moved then). Kopech starts 2018 in the rotation.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 17, 2016 23:11:18 GMT -5
Of course, very few of the guys in those studies had a FB with velocity that would rank 2nd in MLB (of 382 pitchers with 40+ IP; he just edges Syndergaard) with movement that ties for 11th -- a combination almost unheard of, as the median rank of guys who threw 95 or harder was 177th (between Syndergaard and Herrera). Chapman is the movement leader of that group - and he ranks 47th. And then, of course, there's the strike %. If you remove the last game as an outlier, you've got ... Clayton Kershaw's strike % and FB movement (+2%), but he throws it at 98.7 instead of 93.8. Or ... Aroldis Chapman's FB, less 2.5% velocity but with 7% more movement, with an even better Strike % (Chapman ranked 19th). Chapman's FB was in a class by itself until Kopech showed up in the AFL with one that is potentially even better. He just needs to maintain the command he showed before his last start (and he could well regress), and reduce the days where he has no command at all to a more typical level (never for most guys, maybe once a year for others. Although I want to study that, maybe). Hahahaha! Geez, Eric, can't you just let me be conservative for once? Actually, I'm very high on Kopech, too, particularly given his AFL performance (although that FB velocity is over 4 innings, tops, so it's probably going to drop into the 97s when he's throwing 85-110 pitches per game instead of 45-60). Just speaking in historical generalities. You and I both know that generalities are only partially informative, and identifying positive (and negative) predictors is what allows fine-tuning, which is where the real analysis is. Blunt tools like population studies...well, I've said my piece at length on those before. I mean, I called Kopech a potential Syndergaard 2.0 last summer. Hell, he may be even better if he becomes a FB/SL/CH/CU guy. I agree 100% that he has several qualities that make him a better bet for success than the non-differentiated "buckets" in that, and other, studies. However, there's still a lot of risk tied up in his head-whacking, inconsistent-front foot, arm-heavy delivery. Hell, he's 20, so I'm actually pretty confident he'll remain a SP. Lots of time to sort that stuff out. I think he has "ace" (and most everyone who's argued that designation with me knows how selectively I use it) written all over him, as much as it can be for anyone still in the minors. I think he'll be up right around/shortly after the trade deadline in 2017. There's just a LONG way to go to perennial CY candidate. Given where I think he'll rank in the BA top-100 (15-30 range is my guess, post-AFL), in light of improvement in identifying top pitching prospects over time, his repertoire, "success" (i.e., average or better) rates, his pitch f/x data, his AFL (AA equivalent and a very hitting-friendly one) performance, etc., I'll make a semi-scientific estimate of his becoming a TOR starter at about 30%, maybe as high as 40%. I'd also put his "failure" rate at less than 15%...because, barring catastrophic injury, he's essentially guaranteed a (late-inning) bullpen role by virtue of his stuff. And, at risk of being annoyingly iterative, I think he goes 2.25/2.25/2.5 (ERA/FIP/xFIP...I think his HR suppression has some skill component) in AA, goes to AAA around mid-June, and is in MLB for the first-place Red Sox by August 15. Sign Rich Hill, trade Buchholz, extend Pomeranz on a 4-year deal, inclusive, Wright stays as the swingman. Kopech up, trade Pomeranz with his shiny new, relatively low-cost contract to a contender at the deadline or next offseason. Wright to the rotation, Kopech to the bullpen post-deadline (if Pomeranz is moved then). Kopech starts 2018 in the rotation. Are you concerned about pomeranz's elbow? Is he headed for tommy John by May?
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Post by telson13 on Nov 18, 2016 15:15:46 GMT -5
Hahahaha! Geez, Eric, can't you just let me be conservative for once? Actually, I'm very high on Kopech, too, particularly given his AFL performance (although that FB velocity is over 4 innings, tops, so it's probably going to drop into the 97s when he's throwing 85-110 pitches per game instead of 45-60). Just speaking in historical generalities. You and I both know that generalities are only partially informative, and identifying positive (and negative) predictors is what allows fine-tuning, which is where the real analysis is. Blunt tools like population studies...well, I've said my piece at length on those before. I mean, I called Kopech a potential Syndergaard 2.0 last summer. Hell, he may be even better if he becomes a FB/SL/CH/CU guy. I agree 100% that he has several qualities that make him a better bet for success than the non-differentiated "buckets" in that, and other, studies. However, there's still a lot of risk tied up in his head-whacking, inconsistent-front foot, arm-heavy delivery. Hell, he's 20, so I'm actually pretty confident he'll remain a SP. Lots of time to sort that stuff out. I think he has "ace" (and most everyone who's argued that designation with me knows how selectively I use it) written all over him, as much as it can be for anyone still in the minors. I think he'll be up right around/shortly after the trade deadline in 2017. There's just a LONG way to go to perennial CY candidate. Given where I think he'll rank in the BA top-100 (15-30 range is my guess, post-AFL), in light of improvement in identifying top pitching prospects over time, his repertoire, "success" (i.e., average or better) rates, his pitch f/x data, his AFL (AA equivalent and a very hitting-friendly one) performance, etc., I'll make a semi-scientific estimate of his becoming a TOR starter at about 30%, maybe as high as 40%. I'd also put his "failure" rate at less than 15%...because, barring catastrophic injury, he's essentially guaranteed a (late-inning) bullpen role by virtue of his stuff. And, at risk of being annoyingly iterative, I think he goes 2.25/2.25/2.5 (ERA/FIP/xFIP...I think his HR suppression has some skill component) in AA, goes to AAA around mid-June, and is in MLB for the first-place Red Sox by August 15. Sign Rich Hill, trade Buchholz, extend Pomeranz on a 4-year deal, inclusive, Wright stays as the swingman. Kopech up, trade Pomeranz with his shiny new, relatively low-cost contract to a contender at the deadline or next offseason. Wright to the rotation, Kopech to the bullpen post-deadline (if Pomeranz is moved then). Kopech starts 2018 in the rotation. Are you concerned about pomeranz's elbow? Is he headed for tommy John by May? Not a ton, yet. I'd have to actually see the MRI to make that call. He pitched a lot of innings last year, relative to his previous highs. I'm not even sure what the final diagnosis was.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 19, 2016 4:33:30 GMT -5
From Len Dykstra at MiLB.com: Red Sox RHP Michael Kopech, Surprise: No one had quite the roller-coaster ride of a season than Kopech did. Boston's fifth-ranked prospect started out on the disabled list with a broken hand suffered in an altercation with a teammate. He returned in the middle of June with Class A Short Season Lowell and was meant to move up to Class A Advanced Salem before another DL stint pushed that back to July 7. Once on the mound, the 20-year-old was dominant, if not entirely accurate, with a 2.25 ERA, 82 strikeouts and 29 walks in 52 innings in the Carolina League. The 2015 first-rounder, who has been clocked above 100 mph on multiple occasions, finished with a 2.01 ERA, 26 strikeouts and eight walks in 22 1/3 innings this fall. There's still work to be done, as his six-walk performance Nov. 11 showed, but the fact that he could make up for lost innings and handle the jump in competition without a drop in results should have Boston encouraged for his pending jump to Double-A Portland come spring. www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20161118&content_id=209071540&fext=.jsp&vkey=toolshed&sid=milbNote: Surprise is the city name.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 23, 2016 15:16:59 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 23, 2016 21:55:29 GMT -5
So I always thought the idea of trying Ball as a hitter was ridiculous but maybe it's time.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 23, 2016 22:18:45 GMT -5
So I always thought the idea of trying Ball as a hitter was ridiculous but maybe it's time. Seems like there's not much to lose at this point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 25, 2016 14:33:17 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2016 12:38:39 GMT -5
Not really too surprised here. Remember, it's that high because it's mostly players at AA and above who are prospect-y who are even assigned there, so most of the guys going are likely to get called up in some capacity. If you're already at that point and someone the club will consider sending to the AFL, the assignment is something akin to finishing school. And keep in mind that "reached the major leagues" could just mean a cup of coffee too. Consider, for example, the Red Sox 2014 contingent. Five of the eight have made the majors, but those five are Rusney Castillo, Deven Marrero, Mike Miller, Robby Scott, and Madison Younginer.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 28, 2016 20:28:57 GMT -5
Not really too surprised here. Remember, it's that high because it's mostly players at AA and above who are prospect-y who are even assigned there, so most of the guys going are likely to get called up in some capacity. If you're already at that point and someone the club will consider sending to the AFL, the assignment is something akin to finishing school. And keep in mind that "reached the major leagues" could just mean a cup of coffee too. Consider, for example, the Red Sox 2014 contingent. Five of the eight have made the majors, but those five are Rusney Castillo, Deven Marrero, Mike Miller, Robby Scott, and Madison Younginer. I'm aware of that, and you are doing some serious cherry-picking here. 61% is impressive and the AFL has been a great showcase. Of the prospects you pointed out, only Marrero was even in our top 20 (@ #12) in 2014 (and if you recall, we didn't rank Castillo). It would be just as easy and would serve the reality of the resounding success of the AFL to point out all the stars that went through there. ADD: It's even more impressive when you consider that each team carries 20 pitchers and those pitchers are rarely starters who had been healthy all year because of their innings limitations.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 29, 2016 1:09:13 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 29, 2016 10:28:09 GMT -5
Not really too surprised here. Remember, it's that high because it's mostly players at AA and above who are prospect-y who are even assigned there, so most of the guys going are likely to get called up in some capacity. If you're already at that point and someone the club will consider sending to the AFL, the assignment is something akin to finishing school. And keep in mind that "reached the major leagues" could just mean a cup of coffee too. Consider, for example, the Red Sox 2014 contingent. Five of the eight have made the majors, but those five are Rusney Castillo, Deven Marrero, Mike Miller, Robby Scott, and Madison Younginer. I'm aware of that, and you are doing some serious cherry-picking here. 61% is impressive and the AFL has been a great showcase. Of the prospects you pointed out, only Marrero was even in our top 20 (@ #12) in 2014 (and if you recall, we didn't rank Castillo). It would be just as easy and would serve the reality of the resounding success of the AFL to point out all the stars that went through there. ADD: It's even more impressive when you consider that each team carries 20 pitchers and those pitchers are rarely starters who had been healthy all year because of their innings limitations. I don't think I was cherry picking. I went back to last year but none of them have debuted yet. But let's look at the full Red Sox sample. 2016: Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Jamie Callahan, Mauricio Dubon, Michael Kopech*, Danny Mars, Yoan Moncada (* - would have debuted this year, but, y'know, dead arm period) 2015: Jamie Callahan, Justin Haley, Tzu-Wei Lin, Kyle Martin, Danny Rosenbaum, Chandler Shepherd, Sam Travis, Aaron Wilkerson (none have debuted but at least 3 probably do this year if not 4 or 5) 2014: Rusney Castillo, Keith Couch, Sean Coyle, Deven Marrero, Mike Miller, Aaron Kurcz, Robby Scott, Madison Younginer2013: Mookie Betts, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, Derrik Gibson, Mickey Pena, Noe Ramirez, Pete Ruiz, Travis Shaw2012: Michael Almanzar, Bryce Brentz, Brock Huntzinger, Chris Martin, Ryan Pressly, Pete Ruiz, Christian Vazquez2011: Dan Butler, Caleb Clay, Ryan Dent, Alex Hassan, Brock Huntzinger, Jeremy Kehrt, Will Latimer, JC Linares, Will Middlebrooks2010: Seth Garrison, Jose Iglesias, Casey Kelly, Ryan Lavarnway, JC Linares, Jason Rice, Eammon Portice, Dan Turpen 2009: Randor Bierd*, Luis Exposito, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Casey Kelly**, Richie Lentz, Chris Province, Dustin Richardson (* - technically, he'd already played in MLB and didn't afterwards; ** - I'm not counting him here b/c he was there as a shortstop, but he obviously pitched in MLB) 2008: Aaron Bates, Clay Buchholz, TJ Large, Ryne Lawson, Eammon Portice, Josh Reddick, Beau Vaughan, Mark Wagner 2007: Jed Lowrie, Craig Hansen, Jon Still, Hunter Jones, Dusty Brown, Daniel Haigwood, Jose Vaquedano So in this sample at least, 2013 (being generous) and 2008 are the only ones with two MLB regulars? And it seems like half-ish of the guys at least make a debut?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 29, 2016 10:32:40 GMT -5
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 29, 2016 11:32:32 GMT -5
Not really too surprised here. Remember, it's that high because it's mostly players at AA and above who are prospect-y who are even assigned there, so most of the guys going are likely to get called up in some capacity. If you're already at that point and someone the club will consider sending to the AFL, the assignment is something akin to finishing school. And keep in mind that "reached the major leagues" could just mean a cup of coffee too. Consider, for example, the Red Sox 2014 contingent. Five of the eight have made the majors, but those five are Rusney Castillo, Deven Marrero, Mike Miller, Robby Scott, and Madison Younginer. On the other side of the coin to keep in mind, that of the 38% that has not made it many are still on the process so that number is sure to drop. I'd SWAG it's about 30% or less that does not make it. That said the prospects picked are hand selected by clubs for a reason.
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