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9/2-9/4 Red Sox @ Athletics Series Thread
Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2016 18:01:27 GMT -5
Wouldn't mind seeing Melancon in a Red Sox uniform next year...pitching in the ninth inning...with Kimbrell on the bench.
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Post by bigpupp on Sept 4, 2016 18:03:41 GMT -5
Wouldn't mind seeing Melancon in a Red Sox uniform next year...pitching in the ninth inning...with Kimbrell on the bench. I think I know how that one ends.
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Post by bosox81 on Sept 4, 2016 18:05:22 GMT -5
Now I wish the call at 1st stood and Erod still had the no-hitter going into the 9th.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 4, 2016 18:06:42 GMT -5
Another one OF THOSE GAMES that the Red Sox ALWAYS lose this year. What an aggravating team. Kimbrel used to be "elite". Not so much anymore unfortunately. It wouldn't have mattered anyways. The Red Sox weren't going to score today anyways.
I've seen this movie way too many times this year!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2016 18:07:13 GMT -5
The "sometimes s**t happens" argument only goes so far with me. At this point, it's no longer bad luck. It's a trend.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 4, 2016 18:43:33 GMT -5
"I should have buried myself in that mound today"
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 4, 2016 18:46:37 GMT -5
I guess ERod, at 100 pitches, could come out to start the 8th, but I'd rather take him out. The problem is, with Wright such a question mark and Buchholz so unpredictable, compounded by his recent usage, we've GOT to have a strong ERod down the stretch. You can't try to let him have a chance at something special, overtax his arm, and burn him out or have any risk of injury. Give me a break. He had no high pitch innnigs or stressful innings he would have been fine to go the full game if he had a no hitter after eight.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Sept 4, 2016 19:01:55 GMT -5
How about Chapman or Jenson? If they hold off on adding a big bat, and go for it with this rotation or a trade, then I think a great closer would be awesome. 8th/9th inning combo.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 4, 2016 19:11:32 GMT -5
Big gigantic no to Chapman.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 4, 2016 19:12:52 GMT -5
How about Chapman or Jenson? If they hold off on adding a big bat, and go for it with this rotation or a trade, then I think a great closer would be awesome. 8th/9th inning combo. in (all) good conscience I could not root for him....
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Post by Coreno on Sept 4, 2016 19:28:01 GMT -5
Kind of weird that the reaction to this loss is people wanting to go out and get another closer.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 4, 2016 20:00:17 GMT -5
Kimbrel gives me Bill Campbell flash backs. Member that guy they signed as a FA after one good year with the Twins to be their closer in the mid 70's. Every game was an adventure.
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Post by bentossaurus on Sept 4, 2016 20:09:57 GMT -5
Kind of weird that the reaction to this loss is people wanting to go out and get another closer. Well, you know, there's this river in Egypt...
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 4, 2016 20:39:17 GMT -5
In the grand scheme of things (this season), this is a game that will be remembered for showing how good ERod can - and will - be. It's a loss. This too shall pass. Things had to even out with the bats, I guess.
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Post by southcoastsox on Sept 4, 2016 20:54:04 GMT -5
That just made my night a little better to be honest. Edit: I tried embedding that a few times and it didn't work. So I'm just going to post the link.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 4, 2016 21:51:58 GMT -5
In the grand scheme of things (this season), this is a game that will be remembered for showing how good ERod can - and will - be. It's a loss. This too shall pass. Things had to even out with the bats, I guess. I hope you are right because so far he seems a little like Bucholtz. Tantalizing, but kind of fragile physically and emotionally.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2016 0:28:14 GMT -5
In the grand scheme of things (this season), this is a game that will be remembered for showing how good ERod can - and will - be. It's a loss. This too shall pass. Things had to even out with the bats, I guess. They lost this game because they went 3 for 7 on line drives, including 2 for 5 in a three-inning span where they also had two other hits, a walk, an opposition error, and a three-run homer blown back into the ballpark. Sometimes that happens. E-Rod: 11 GB, 4 PU, 4 OF-FB (1 foul), 2 LD. They hit only four balls to the outfield in the air, and three of those came in a stretch of 6 hitters in the 4th and 5th. 76 4-seamers, 21 changeups, 13 sliders. Starting with his 4 no-hit innings in his last non-rusty start, a major change in his pitch mix. First 6 starts after DL, then the last 3: 62% FB, 27% SL, 11% CH. 72% FB, 12% SL, 17% CH. He was getting hurt on hanging sliders when he was throwing it more often. This effectiveness comparison, in runs per 100 pitches, includes the rusty start (negative is good). FB: -2.08 to -3.01 CH: -0.47 to -1.43 SL: 1.16 to -1.66 His FB overall has been -2.40. Excluding the rust game, -2.64. How good is that? Of 155 SP with 60+ IP, Jake Arrieta leads MLB at -2.23. Still waiting for him to reintroduce his cutter and 2-seamer ...
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 5, 2016 8:03:24 GMT -5
The "sometimes s**t happens" argument only goes so far with me. At this point, it's no longer bad luck. It's a trend. Except that a 1-0 game with this team breaks the trend, especially the one they had going with the A's to this point. When the game is 1-0, it's almost a given that one "s**t happens" happening is going to decide it. When the losses are 8-6, 11-8, etc. it never feels like one "s**t happens moment", it feels like consistent systemic problems. And with this team, the systemic problems have been in the pen. There's no reason to agonize over this game because the way it was going, who knows if the Sox would have scored if the game had gone 12 or 14 innings?
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Post by bluechip on Sept 5, 2016 8:13:57 GMT -5
Kimbril is a good closer. He has not been an elite closer this year. The bigger problem has been the 8th inning. If they can get an elite setup man I'm fine with Kimbril in the 9th.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 5, 2016 8:17:56 GMT -5
If ever there was a loss I was excited about, it was yesterday's ... with the A's caveat aside, ERod looked great.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2016 8:46:08 GMT -5
Every time Kimbrel fails, which has been too many times for my taste, it becomes a referendum on how stupid the Sox were for trying to trade for an "elite" closer. If Kimbrel had pitched to his track record over the past five years, a pretty long track record, the way he did with Atlanta and San Diego, the trade would be worth it.
Margot should be a solid major league regular but hardly "elite" himself, certainly not good enough to dislodge any of the killer "B's" from their starting outfield jobs. He was never a trade chip that was going to get the Red Sox the cheap top of the rotation starter they were seeking and we don't know that he would have been good enough to be a viable CF this season, good enough to allow the Red Sox to trade JBJ plus (and it's scary to think what that plus would have been) to get Chris Sale (at least the Sox would still have Espinoza).
Margot's own trade value in conjunction with others (the other three will hardly amount to anything irreplaceable) was that of a top notch closer, what Kimbrel should have been based on his young age and lengthy track record.
I'm still fine with the idea of the trade the Sox made, for as aggravating as Kimbrel has been to watch, the other alternatives were not that appealing, and he's easily the best pitcher in this horrendous bullpen.
Still, I have not enjoyed the Craig Kimbrel experience. He reminds me of the disappointment that Lee Smith was with the Sox. I expected a dominant closer. Instead I saw a guy trying to hit the bulls' eyse on the outside corner of the plate - and miss a lot. That's Kimbrel, except that he can throw a curveball, and his control is far worse than I ever would have imagined.
I wouldn't trade Manny Margot for the closer Kimbrel is, but I would for a closer that pitches like the top-notch "elite" closer that Kimbrel used to perform like.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 5, 2016 10:47:53 GMT -5
Who was the last elite closer in the AL East? Mariano Rivera? Big difference closing AL vs NL. Kimbrel's control has been a big culprit along with stacked lineups IMO.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 5, 2016 11:06:00 GMT -5
Who was the last elite closer in the AL East? Mariano Rivera? Big difference closing AL vs NL. Kimbrel's control has been a big culprit along with stacked lineups IMO. Zach Britton.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Sept 5, 2016 11:38:07 GMT -5
Who was the last elite closer in the AL East? Mariano Rivera? Big difference closing AL vs NL. Kimbrel's control has been a big culprit along with stacked lineups IMO. Among AL East closers, Kimbrel is fourth in saves, fourth in save percentage and last in ERA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 6, 2016 1:47:25 GMT -5
Every time Kimbrel fails, which has been too many times for my taste, it becomes a referendum on how stupid the Sox were for trying to trade for an "elite" closer. If Kimbrel had pitched to his track record over the past five years, a pretty long track record, the way he did with Atlanta and San Diego, the trade would be worth it. Margot should be a solid major league regular but hardly "elite" himself, certainly not good enough to dislodge any of the killer "B's" from their starting outfield jobs. He was never a trade chip that was going to get the Red Sox the cheap top of the rotation starter they were seeking and we don't know that he would have been good enough to be a viable CF this season, good enough to allow the Red Sox to trade JBJ plus (and it's scary to think what that plus would have been) to get Chris Sale (at least the Sox would still have Espinoza). Margot's own trade value in conjunction with others (the other three will hardly amount to anything irreplaceable) was that of a top notch closer, what Kimbrel should have been based on his young age and lengthy track record. I'm still fine with the idea of the trade the Sox made, for as aggravating as Kimbrel has been to watch, the other alternatives were not that appealing, and he's easily the best pitcher in this horrendous bullpen. Still, I have not enjoyed the Craig Kimbrel experience. He reminds me of the disappointment that Lee Smith was with the Sox. I expected a dominant closer. Instead I saw a guy trying to hit the bulls' eyse on the outside corner of the plate - and miss a lot. That's Kimbrel, except that he can throw a curveball, and his control is far worse than I ever would have imagined. I wouldn't trade Manny Margot for the closer Kimbrel is, but I would for a closer that pitches like the top-notch "elite" closer that Kimbrel used to perform like. Kimbrel SIERA year by year, with rank among MLB relievers with 50+ IP. 1.61, 4th of 128 0.76, 1st (by a wide margin) of 134 1.67, 5th of 125 (Koji was 1st) 1.94, 11th of 136 (Koji was 9th; Miller was 2nd) 2.21, 9th of 131 (Miller was 3rd) Now, this was a pretty clear declining trend. Over the last 4 seasons, the trendline has r = .95, p = .05. If I'm trading for this guy, I want a convincing scouting analysis as to why he won't put up a 2.80 the next year, which is what the regression says he will. He needs to halt the trend or even reverse it a little to make the trade borderline defensible. He needs to get back to his first three seasons before you're fully comfortable with a significant overpay because you got a true elite performer.. A reasonable belief that the truth would be somewhere in that ballpark is the only defense for the trade. So ... 2.72, 20th of 146 guys with 40 IP so far. Mller is 1st. He's been just another really good reliever. The two guys on either side of him are Justin Wilson and Tyler Thornburg. Projecting reliever career arcs is obviously not easy. Our last two regimes have made colossal and opposite errors; thinking Miller wouldn't be worth his salary, and that Kimbrel would be worth not just his salary but the prospect price. BTW, the trend over 5 seasons now has r = .97, p = .006. The projection for next year is 3.20, which would rank 46th, and really is not good enough to close
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