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Post by patford on Jun 26, 2018 12:36:29 GMT -5
(Henry Owens and Kopech). .... Okay, so there's no similarity at all between those two. Owens combined a bad fastball with bad location, forcing him to nibble and miss or get too much of the plate and get annihilated. Michael Kopech is currently reworking his curveball ,which is a big reason for his struggles statistically the last two months. He pairs that reworked/work-in-progress curve with what is almost certainly the best fastball in minor league baseball. Speaking as someone who was a comparative skeptic on Kopech (meaning I think he's more of a Top-30 prospect than a Top-10 prospect), having Bryan Mata turn out to be anything like Kopech would be a gift. EDIT: All I'm saying is he is walking loads of hitters. And that has been going on for several years without any obvious improvement.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Bryan Mata
Jun 26, 2018 12:51:04 GMT -5
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Post by radiohix on Jun 26, 2018 12:51:04 GMT -5
What about Salem's catchers framing skills? Baldwin is a converted 3rd baseman and is still a work in progress behind the dish and I don't know about the other guys skills so maybe they're not getting him the calls? Just speculating here.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 26, 2018 13:35:04 GMT -5
What about Salem's catchers framing skills? Baldwin is a converted 3rd baseman and is still a work in progress behind the dish and I don't know about the other guys skills so maybe they're not getting him the calls? Just speculating here. Bad framing would cost you strikes on the margins. I can't imagine it turning into 15% and up walk rates. Also, have we ever seen anywhere that he's a converted third baseman? He played both positions when he first signed, but I don't think I've ever seen a source that he was a conversion project.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on Jun 26, 2018 16:56:15 GMT -5
What about Salem's catchers framing skills? Baldwin is a converted 3rd baseman and is still a work in progress behind the dish and I don't know about the other guys skills so maybe they're not getting him the calls? Just speculating here. Bad framing would cost you strikes on the margins. I can't imagine it turning into 15% and up walk rates. Also, have we ever seen anywhere that he's a converted third baseman? He played both positions when he first signed, but I don't think I've ever seen a source that he was a conversion project. As I said in my comment, that's a speculation on my part to explain SOME of the BB/9 increase. I saw the Lynn's start vs our guys and his catcher costed him at least 2 walks by stabing pitches down in the zone and making them look like balls, so yeah, maybe his catchers are costing him a walk or 2 in a game here and there. As for Baldwin, in his first year states saide he played 3rd base in 42 games while playing catcher in 4, he also played mainly at 3rd in the DSL the year before that and I vaguely remember Alex Speier mentioning the conversion thing which led to assume that he was converted too. The point I was trying to make is that his catcher maybe raw at the receiving thing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 26, 2018 22:30:24 GMT -5
Well, Baldwin's only caught 7 of Mata's 13 starts. Doesn't appear to be much of a difference between those and the ones started by strong defensive catchers like Nunez.
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Post by patford on Jul 9, 2018 18:12:08 GMT -5
Alex Speier is saying that Mata's addition of a 2-seam FB is the cause of his increased walk rate. It's balanced by a tremendous increase in his ground ball rate.
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Bryan Mata
Jul 14, 2018 15:49:22 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2018 15:49:22 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2018 15:56:03 GMT -5
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Bryan Mata
Jul 14, 2018 16:00:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2018 16:00:21 GMT -5
Shoot. Thanks Chris. I only got mobile here.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 18, 2018 12:20:33 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Mar 27, 2019 17:41:29 GMT -5
I thought this tweet from Ian was encouraging. The development of a cutter/slider is an interesting wrinkle, and quite honestly, seems to be a theme organizationally (e.g., Scherff). I'm always excited to see the potential impact of adding a new secondary pitch, especially one with 'promising' early looks. Mata is a bit of a forgotten guy in our Top 10 relative to others, but its easy to forget how young he is and to take that into context when considering his relative struggles last year. Obviously, the biggest thing many of us are interested in is whether the control/command will look like last year or more like the Mata in 2017 at Greenville whose BB% stood at a reasonable 8.0% (compared to 17.7% in 2018, ouch).
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Post by caseytins on Apr 21, 2019 16:49:16 GMT -5
Mata has been quite impressive early on. He grew a lot last year and that contributed to his lack of command. Still the youngest player in the league. I think there is a lot of upside here. He's an easy top 5 in this organization now. What am I missing?
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Post by patford on Apr 21, 2019 17:59:08 GMT -5
Mata has been quite impressive early on. He grew a lot last year and that contributed to his lack of command. Still the youngest player in the league. I think there is a lot of upside here. He's an easy top 5 in this organization now. What am I missing? My understanding was his slip in control had a lot to do with the Sox telling him to work on adding to his arsenal. He was basically told, "We want you to work on your worst pitch."
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 22, 2019 11:17:01 GMT -5
Mata has been quite impressive early on. He grew a lot last year and that contributed to his lack of command. Still the youngest player in the league. I think there is a lot of upside here. He's an easy top 5 in this organization now. What am I missing? My understanding was his slip in control had a lot to do with the Sox telling him to work on adding to his arsenal. He was basically told, "We want you to work on your worst pitch." I've heard nothing of the sort, fwiw. Where'd you hear that? This year, he's added a cutter/slider to great effect and appears to be controlling the fastball much better (sitting 94-95 now). Got a report he threw a 93 mph cutter the other night. If that becomes a thing... Wow.
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Bryan Mata
Apr 22, 2019 11:40:25 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Apr 22, 2019 11:40:25 GMT -5
My understanding was his slip in control had a lot to do with the Sox telling him to work on adding to his arsenal. He was basically told, "We want you to work on your worst pitch." I've heard nothing of the sort, fwiw. Where'd you hear that? This year, he's added a cutter/slider to great effect and appears to be controlling the fastball much better (sitting 94-95 now). Got a report he threw a 93 mph cutter the other night. If that becomes a thing... Wow. I’ve been curious as to whether his velocity gains from last year stuck or even improved. It sounds like he’s added even more velo along with the hard SL/CT. That basically gives him 4 viable pitches. I can’t imagine he’ll stay in Salem much longer if he keeps this up. And it seems unfair to ask for more, but at 19 he may still have a fair amount of physical projection left.
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Post by patford on Apr 22, 2019 12:50:01 GMT -5
My understanding was his slip in control had a lot to do with the Sox telling him to work on adding to his arsenal. He was basically told, "We want you to work on your worst pitch." I've heard nothing of the sort, fwiw. Where'd you hear that? This year, he's added a cutter/slider to great effect and appears to be controlling the fastball much better (sitting 94-95 now). Got a report he threw a 93 mph cutter the other night. If that becomes a thing... Wow. I would swear I read it last year. He went from not walking many batters to walking a lot of batters and a minor league report/story mentioned he was working on a new pitch. I'll see if I can find the story by searching around. As I recall it had something to do with a sinking effect fastball. Maybe just a change from two to four seam ? Maybe I'm mixing him up with another Sox prospect ? This isn't the story I remember but it talks about the same issues. The soaring walk rate. The Sox wanting him to develop a two seam and curve ball. "Mata also has thrown his two-seam fastball more this year. He began refining the pitch during the offseason. 'They told me I should be using it more and I have been,' Mata said. The curveball is another pitch the Red Sox have wanted him to throw more this year. 'So I've worked really hard on my curveball. I've gotten to the point where I'm real confident that I can throw it in any count.'" www.masslive.com/redsox/2018/07/bryan_mata_boston_red_sox_top.html
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Post by patford on Apr 22, 2019 13:04:38 GMT -5
Found what I was looking for. It was a tweet from Alex Speier:
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Bryan Mata
Apr 22, 2019 14:39:28 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Apr 22, 2019 14:39:28 GMT -5
Found what I was looking for. It was a tweet from Alex Speier: Seems like whatever they did, it’s worked. He’s a pretty exciting prospect, especially with the extreme GB rate. Idk how many bats he’s going to miss, but putting up a 60% GB rate is a helluva thing, especially when combined with a low HR rate, a low BAA, and a reasonable walk rate. He’s looking more and more like a #3 with upside, especially at just 20 y/o in a week and knocking on the door of AA with a FB sitting 94+, as Chris noted. A lot of us were thinking Darwinzon, but Mata might very well be Porcello’s replacement next year.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 22, 2019 14:44:30 GMT -5
Found what I was looking for. It was a tweet from Alex Speier: Seems like whatever they did, it’s worked. He’s a pretty exciting prospect, especially with the extreme GB rate. Idk how many bats he’s going to miss, but putting up a 60% GB rate is a helluva thing, especially when combined with a low HR rate, a low BAA, and a reasonable walk rate. He’s looking more and more like a #3 with upside, especially at just 20 y/o in a week and knocking on the door of AA with a FB sitting 94+, as Chris noted. A lot of us were thinking Darwinzon, but Mata might very well be Porcello’s replacement next year. Yeah, everything up until the bolded part I was on board with. Going from repeating to Salem to starting the next year in the majors at 20 is pretty unlikely. I'd be pretty surprised if he reaches Pawtucket this season.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on Apr 22, 2019 14:44:57 GMT -5
Found what I was looking for. It was a tweet from Alex Speier: Seems like whatever they did, it’s worked. He’s a pretty exciting prospect, especially with the extreme GB rate. Idk how many bats he’s going to miss, but putting up a 60% GB rate is a helluva thing, especially when combined with a low HR rate, a low BAA, and a reasonable walk rate. He’s looking more and more like a #3 with upside, especially at just 20 y/o in a week and knocking on the door of AA with a FB sitting 94+, as Chris noted. A lot of us were thinking Darwinzon, but Mata might very well be Porcello’s replacement next year.I love me some Bryan Mata but that seems quite agressive to me.
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Bryan Mata
Apr 22, 2019 14:55:45 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Apr 22, 2019 14:55:45 GMT -5
Seems like whatever they did, it’s worked. He’s a pretty exciting prospect, especially with the extreme GB rate. Idk how many bats he’s going to miss, but putting up a 60% GB rate is a helluva thing, especially when combined with a low HR rate, a low BAA, and a reasonable walk rate. He’s looking more and more like a #3 with upside, especially at just 20 y/o in a week and knocking on the door of AA with a FB sitting 94+, as Chris noted. A lot of us were thinking Darwinzon, but Mata might very well be Porcello’s replacement next year. Yeah, everything up until the bolded part I was on board with. Going from repeating to Salem to starting the next year in the majors at 20 is pretty unlikely. I'd be pretty surprised if he reaches Pawtucket this season. Under most circumstances I wouldn’t see it, but DD has a history (including Porcello) of promoting aggressively. That’s why I said “might” and not “should.” A lot of things would have to go right for Mata, but I could see him kind of mimicking Rodriguez’s ascension, good AA performance to end the year with a short AAA stay next spring and a mid-May callup. Certainly it’s aggressive, and would really depend on his further improving his command. His repeating Salem seemed largely predicated on the control struggles, which seem largely resolved. I’d expect he’ll get 15 or so AA starts this year if he keeps going like he has. Idk exactly how the team plans to deal with Porcello’s spot, but depending on how Hernandez and Mata look, I could see them going with either an internal stop-gap (Velazquez or Johnson) or a pillow-deal #5 who could be moved if the kids look ready.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 22, 2019 15:03:26 GMT -5
a history (including Porcello) of promoting aggressively. Yeah, I mean that's kind of in line with my point. Porcello was overmatched totally unnecessarily, had to make adjustments against superior competition, and stagnated for four years. It wasn't until like year five before he was any good (though his peripherals were good by year four), and by then he was getting expensive. The Tigers misused him both from a developmental standpoint and as an asset. As far as Mata specifically, I'd like him to get another half-dozen starts in Salem to see if the control holds. Then I think his stuff will be tested a little bit more against Double-A competition. His natural stuff isn't that of Hernandez or Houck, but if he has a deeper repertoire and is getting an idea of how to use it, then he may have a better chance to stick as a starter than either of them.
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Bryan Mata
Apr 22, 2019 15:16:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Apr 22, 2019 15:16:21 GMT -5
FWIW, I think his pitching style would translate relatively well, as opposed to, say, a flamethrower who needs a better third pitch or a control artist relying on weak contact. Mata’s GB-heavy/HR-suppressing approach would actually benefit from better fielding at the MLB level. I think if he does struggle it’ll be with nibbling/not trusting his stuff, and maybe seeing a few too many dingers. He misses a fair share of bats (we’ll see how the CB develops, and whether the CU/CH combo can get whiffs), but I’d anticipate a potentially significant drop in K rate( Of course, given the direction of MLB towards TTO, it could also rise). OTOH, because he gets so many grounders, the damage on contact should be limited, and he should get double plays with baserunners on. And, even looking at his struggles last year, he was able to largely limit the damage, which I think speaks to his pitchability. He’s shown a capacity to identify (or acknowledge what’s been identified for him) necessary adjustments, and then implement changes and consolidate gains. Not entirely on-point but germane is this THT article: tht.fangraphs.com/how-minor-league-pitching-changes-across-levels/
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Bryan Mata
Apr 22, 2019 15:25:39 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Apr 22, 2019 15:25:39 GMT -5
a history (including Porcello) of promoting aggressively. Yeah, I mean that's kind of in line with my point. Porcello was overmatched totally unnecessarily, had to make adjustments against superior competition, and stagnated for four years. It wasn't until like year five before he was any good (though his peripherals were good by year four), and by then he was getting expensive. The Tigers misused him both from a developmental standpoint and as an asset. As far as Mata specifically, I'd like him to get another half-dozen starts in Salem to see if the control holds. Then I think his stuff will be tested a little bit more against Double-A competition. His natural stuff isn't that of Hernandez or Houck, but if he has a deeper repertoire and is getting an idea of how to use it, then he may have a better chance to stick as a starter than either of them. The service time issue is actually a fantastic point I hadn’t properly considered. Of course, Porcello was an A-ball promotion out of spring, and I’d argue that maybe 2 of those “developmental” years would’ve had to be done at the MLB level anyway. It’s pretty common to see guys prove everything they need to in the minors but still scuffle for a bit in MLB. Eddie Rodriguez again being a pretty good example. I *do* think we agree about Mata’s long-term role, and I definitely should stress I don’t think a rapid ascension is likely or necessarily adviseable, just that he’s showing the sort of developmental progression that suggests he may be a rare case. I definitely agree that he could use at least 3-4 more Salem starts (maybe 5-6, depending) to prove the gains are “real.” What happens after that is tough to predict, but I’m very excited for how effectively he’s addressed last year’s issue despite what could be seen as a pretty big setback in repeating the level.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 22, 2019 16:15:17 GMT -5
Guys Mata is the youngest player in the league he's pitching in right now. Let's stop with the Boston in 2020 craziness.
I'd missed that on the 2 seam. Makes some sense. I thought for a minute, after leaning and coming back, you might've been thinking of Houck.
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