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bigmarty58
Rookie
2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
Posts: 162
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Post by bigmarty58 on Mar 30, 2018 10:47:16 GMT -5
Looking for a bounce back season. Bat speed looked good yesterday and agree that the new up right stance makes Bogey look bigger. 22 bombs, 315+AVG is where I am at with good health.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 30, 2018 12:16:52 GMT -5
320 25
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 30, 2018 13:33:19 GMT -5
FWIW, there were 7 hitters in baseball who hit .315 with 20 HR last year - Altuve, Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Votto, Hosmer, and Jose Ramirez.
Coincidentally, 7 in baseball hit .300 with 30 HR - Blackmon, Votto, Ozuna, Arenado, Trout, Abreu, Zimmerman.
There's projecting a bounce back and there's projecting him to become one of the best hitters in the game. Just want to make sure we're being reasonable with a guy whose best season is .294 and 21, and I say that as someone who's bullish on him.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 30, 2018 14:15:14 GMT -5
FWIW, there were 7 hitters in baseball who hit .315 with 20 HR last year - Altuve, Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Votto, Hosmer, and Jose Ramirez. Coincidentally, 7 in baseball hit .300 with 30 HR - Blackmon, Votto, Ozuna, Arenado, Trout, Abreu, Zimmerman. There's projecting a bounce back and there's projecting him to become one of the best hitters in the game. Just want to make sure we're being reasonable with a guy whose best season is .294 and 21, and I say that as someone who's bullish on him. He did hit .320 in 2015, but I doubt he can duplicate the BABIP if he's swinging for more power.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 30, 2018 15:08:20 GMT -5
Right, I figured .294/21 > .320/7. OPS, wRC+ were better in the former season as well - he also took enough walks such that his OBP was essentially even.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 30, 2018 15:31:08 GMT -5
I think it's crazy to predict .320 for anyone other than Altuve or Miguel Cabrera a few years ago, but I think it's pretty reasonable to predict .300/25 for Xander if we're predicting a breakout. He just looks like a much more dangerous hitter this year already.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 30, 2018 16:34:31 GMT -5
So maybe I am a bit over optimistic but just look at the list of guys who put up big numbers out of the blue. It happens all the time. Xander is certainly capable of having a big year based on many factors. Much more so than than someone like Judge doing what he did last year. And yes I think he could very well be one of the best hitters in the game.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 30, 2018 16:46:47 GMT -5
Avasail Garcia, Justin Turner, Jose Ramirez, Do any of these guys have a history that would make you think they would be top hitters?
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Post by telson13 on Mar 30, 2018 23:46:24 GMT -5
Avasail Garcia, Justin Turner, Jose Ramirez, Do any of these guys have a history that would make you think they would be top hitters? Well...Garcia had a ludicrous BABIP last year, at .392. He’s a GB/LD guy, so you’d expect it to be high, but there’s a lot of luck bakes in there. Ramirez wasn’t out of nowhere (maybe the power was to an extent), as he’s always had truly elite (80) contact skills, and he threw up an almost 5 WAR season the year before. Turner (and JDM, if you’re looking for out-of-the-blue cases) both probably qualify. They obviously had major approach overhauls. FWIW, I don’t doubt in the least that you might be right. If Bogey goes .320/.380/.520 and hits 25 bombs, I’d be just more inclined to (tongue-in-cheek) say “it’s about time” than “where the hell did that come from?!” It’s a pretty bold prediction, though. I will say, he looks different as a hitter this year, and I think some of that may be confidence and getting back to his approach in the minors (where Hyers was his coach). I can imagine that some of his issues have been related to being up so young and playing with his approach in an attempt to adjust, such that he’d kind of lost his way a bit. He’s still so young, and if he keeps swinging with authority at pitches he can hit (and, being more upright, more inclined to lay off those sliders away), I absolutely see no reason he can’t become the hitter we all hoped he would back in 2012. Strange...it’s so long ago, and he’s had so many struggles and adjustments, it’s easy to overlook that he was one of the three best prospects in baseball, and projected to be a .280-.300 with 30 HR hitter who’d have a 10% BB rate and maybe a K rate under 20%. It’s entirely possible that the last four years were just a bumpy prelude to him hitting his prime and becoming that player.
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 31, 2018 13:57:17 GMT -5
Just two games, but encouraging signs for Xander already. Per Alex Speier, "Three of his four doubles have been on balls hit at 100-plus m.p.h. between 20 and 27 degrees — half of the total number of balls he put in play in that sweet spot in all of 2017." That is the so-called ideal or 'barreled' ball launch angle and velocity. It's pretty amazing that he only had 6 of those ALL of last year and already has 3 this year - and it can't all be traced to his hand injury, because even before that he wasn't impacting the ball that often. If you recall, he didn't pick up his first homer in 2017 until late May. So it seems likely that a lot of this is approach/mechanical adjustments, which while it's only been 2 games, seems to be legit based on the damage he also did in spring training. That Speier article is a good read, and talks about some of the changes that were worked on with Hyers this offseason, while also acknowledging Xander's hand injury in the middle of last year. This could be a really exciting year for Xander's development, perhaps the beginning of him reaching towards that lofty ceiling many, including me, always believed he had in him. www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/03/31/new-year-new-swing-new-results-for-xander-bogaerts/PoH5ewPVcOa5o7hrphFVQO/story.html
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 31, 2018 15:45:28 GMT -5
Just two games, but encouraging signs for Xander already. Per Alex Speier, "Three of his four doubles have been on balls hit at 100-plus m.p.h. between 20 and 27 degrees — half of the total number of balls he put in play in that sweet spot in all of 2017." That is the so-called ideal or 'barreled' ball launch angle and velocity. It's pretty amazing that he only had 6 of those ALL of last year and already has 3 this year - and it can't all be traced to his hand injury, because even before that he wasn't impacting the ball that often. If you recall, he didn't pick up his first homer in 2017 until late May. So it seems likely that a lot of this is approach/mechanical adjustments, which while it's only been 2 games, seems to be legit based on the damage he also did in spring training. That Speier article is a good read, and talks about some of the changes that were worked on with Hyers this offseason, while also acknowledging Xander's hand injury in the middle of last year. This could be a really exciting year for Xander's development, perhaps the beginning of him reaching towards that lofty ceiling many, including me, always believed he had in him. www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/03/31/new-year-new-swing-new-results-for-xander-bogaerts/PoH5ewPVcOa5o7hrphFVQO/story.htmlXander's teammates have a 55.3% GB% (24 out of 45), which in a two-game sample largely reflects the identity of the opposing pitchers. That's a lot of worm-killing. The Marlins led MLB last year at 49.5%. Only the Marlins and Mariners have a higher GB% so far, and the Mariners have played just one game. Xander has 0 GB. (Last year he was 22nd worst out of 144 qualifiers.) I'm making no predictions, but I will point out that when he was a rookie, people did think he would be one of the best hitters in MLB by the time he got to his age 25 season. What's the over / under for the number of games before he moves up to #3?
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 31, 2018 17:30:10 GMT -5
Xander 320 25 standing by it
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 31, 2018 20:46:11 GMT -5
Co-sign. I'm in.
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Post by patford on Mar 31, 2018 22:49:34 GMT -5
I believe in him 100%. Even .335 with 40 hrs would not surprise me.
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Post by patford on Mar 31, 2018 22:52:33 GMT -5
So maybe I am a bit over optimistic but just look at the list of guys who put up big numbers out of the blue. It happens all the time. Xander is certainly capable of having a big year based on many factors. Much more so than than someone like Judge doing what he did last year. And yes I think he could very well be one of the best hitters in the game. Judge is a bum. Waiting for him to be suspended. No one puts up such a ludicrous first year ever. It has never happened. It can not be explained.
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Post by patford on Mar 31, 2018 22:55:23 GMT -5
Tell me about what a great guy Judge is and then come back and tell me about Pettittte and Lance Armstrong.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2018 1:06:04 GMT -5
Tell me about what a great guy Judge is and then come back and tell me about Pettittte and Lance Armstrong. Idk, Judge is a huge guy who’s always hit the ball hard. His problem was pitch recognition, not strength. He annoys me, beyond just being a Yankee (although that’s a big part of it), but I’m withholding judgment (see what I did there) until there’s something more substantial to go on. As for Bogey going .335/40/well over 100...I’d be a little surprised by 40 HR. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility (I mean, Logan Morrison and Mike Moustakis hit 38), but I see it as maybe a 90-95th %ile outcome. And .335 is probably similarly unlikely, but with his BABIP history and ability to hit to all fields, it doesn’t *feel* as unlikely. Regardless, that’s the sort of career year I think we were all hoping back in 2012 that he might have some day, and he’s healthy and entering his prime. And, you know, he’s absolutely obliterating the ball right now. He’s beyond incendiary. After tonight, he’s got three straight multi-XBH games and he *looks* the part at the plate. In light of Speier’s observations, voiceofreason’s prediction is starting to look conservatively reasonable.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2018 4:20:40 GMT -5
In regards to him batting 3rd. Cora should do it now. He needs to put his stamp on this team, show that he is willing to make the right move. Not hitting for Leon last night was a missed opportunity, I want more out of him. Be a little more proactive.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 1, 2018 4:41:03 GMT -5
I couldn't find the Xander extension thread, but minus well put it here.
Xander having a career year is great for the 2018 Red Sox, but it sure makes things tough for the 2020 Red Sox (by the time they have to make a decision on Xander in a contract).
The one thing that I'm confident in is that Xander should play ball in a extension here if the Sox want it. He has always talked about how meaningful Boston is to him and how he has spent most of his life here. I think he would love to sign personally.
If he can keep this swing in tact for the remainder of his career, then the Sox should sign him too. If he needs to move to third base later, then you could do worse then Xander there in his early to mid 30's.
It's just hard to come up with a fair number for Xander because he has been so up and down in his career to this point. The power has been the one thing that has been holding him back to this point. If he finally tapped in, then it'll be a wise choice to sign him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 1, 2018 4:46:25 GMT -5
In regards to him batting 3rd. Cora should do it now. He needs to put his stamp on this team, show that he is willing to make the right move. Not hitting for Leon last night was a missed opportunity, I want more out of him. Be a little more proactive. I like Xander batting 5th if he's going good. More RBI opportunities there. You have a point with the Leon being pinch hit for. Although, Cora might have valued defense more at that stage of the game (the Sox were winning) and wanted to give Vazquez a full day off.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2018 5:14:52 GMT -5
I couldn't find the Xander extension thread, but minus well put it here. Xander having a career year is great for the 2018 Red Sox, but it sure makes things tough for the 2020 Red Sox (by the time they have to make a decision on Xander in a contract). The one thing that I'm confident in is that Xander should play ball in a extension here if the Sox want it. He has always talked about how meaningful Boston is to him and how he has spent most of his life here. I think he would love to sign personally. If he can keep this swing in tact for the remainder of his career, then the Sox should sign him too. If he needs to move to third base later, then you could do worse then Xander there in his early to mid 30's. It's just hard to come up with a fair number for Xander because he has been so up and down in his career to this point. The power has been the one thing that has been holding him back to this point. If he finally tapped in, then it'll be a wise choice to sign him. A few years ago we all expected XB and Machado to be on even ground then one took off and the other regressed a little. I think we are just seeing XB become what we all thought was there, it just took a little while and he was dinged up. In regards to an extension I agree with you on him wanting to be here so hopefully it gets done and soon. The silver lining to him having a few down years is he won't be as expensive and could sign a deal that he significantly out plays. We can only hope. It is a catch 22, we want the players to play so well that we can't afford to keep them. Hasn't it already been established that you bat your best hitter 3rd? I had thought and hoped Cora was going to manage with a little more fluidity.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 1, 2018 5:37:01 GMT -5
I couldn't find the Xander extension thread, but minus well put it here. Xander having a career year is great for the 2018 Red Sox, but it sure makes things tough for the 2020 Red Sox (by the time they have to make a decision on Xander in a contract). The one thing that I'm confident in is that Xander should play ball in a extension here if the Sox want it. He has always talked about how meaningful Boston is to him and how he has spent most of his life here. I think he would love to sign personally. If he can keep this swing in tact for the remainder of his career, then the Sox should sign him too. If he needs to move to third base later, then you could do worse then Xander there in his early to mid 30's. It's just hard to come up with a fair number for Xander because he has been so up and down in his career to this point. The power has been the one thing that has been holding him back to this point. If he finally tapped in, then it'll be a wise choice to sign him. A few years ago we all expected XB and Machado to be on even ground then one took off and the other regressed a little. I think we are just seeing XB become what we all thought was there, it just took a little while and he was dinged up. In regards to an extension I agree with you on him wanting to be here so hopefully it gets done and soon. The silver lining to him having a few down years is he won't be as expensive and could sign a deal that he significantly out plays. We can only hope. It is a catch 22, we want the players to play so well that we can't afford to keep them. Hasn't it already been established that you bat your best hitter 3rd? I had thought and hoped Cora was going to manage with a little more fluidity. Last year the most plate appearances with no runners on base was the hitter batting third. It was also the second or third highest with runners on base too. Normally you bat your best players 1, 2, and 4. 5 is a really important spot in the lineup. As long as he is in your top 6 of the lineup, it's not a big deal.
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 1, 2018 6:54:54 GMT -5
Tell me about what a great guy Judge is and then come back and tell me about Pettittte and Lance Armstrong. Idk, Judge is a huge guy who’s always hit the ball hard. His problem was pitch recognition, not strength. He annoys me, beyond just being a Yankee (although that’s a big part of it), but I’m withholding judgment (see what I did there) until there’s something more substantial to go on. As for Bogey going .335/40/well over 100...I’d be a little surprised by 40 HR. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility (I mean, Logan Morrison and Mike Moustakis hit 38), but I see it as maybe a 90-95th %ile outcome. And .335 is probably similarly unlikely, but with his BABIP history and ability to hit to all fields, it doesn’t *feel* as unlikely. Regardless, that’s the sort of career year I think we were all hoping back in 2012 that he might have some day, and he’s healthy and entering his prime. And, you know, he’s absolutely obliterating the ball right now. He’s beyond incendiary. After tonight, he’s got three straight multi-XBH games and he *looks* the part at the plate. In light of Speier’s observations, voiceofreason’s prediction is starting to look conservatively reasonable. Agreed with your whole statement, I would be more than ecstatic with the line somewhere around 325/380/500 With the 50 doubles and 30 home runs. Sprinkle in the 15 steals. That would be an MVP season in my opinion
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2018 7:44:24 GMT -5
Idk, Judge is a huge guy who’s always hit the ball hard. His problem was pitch recognition, not strength. He annoys me, beyond just being a Yankee (although that’s a big part of it), but I’m withholding judgment (see what I did there) until there’s something more substantial to go on. As for Bogey going .335/40/well over 100...I’d be a little surprised by 40 HR. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility (I mean, Logan Morrison and Mike Moustakis hit 38), but I see it as maybe a 90-95th %ile outcome. And .335 is probably similarly unlikely, but with his BABIP history and ability to hit to all fields, it doesn’t *feel* as unlikely. Regardless, that’s the sort of career year I think we were all hoping back in 2012 that he might have some day, and he’s healthy and entering his prime. And, you know, he’s absolutely obliterating the ball right now. He’s beyond incendiary. After tonight, he’s got three straight multi-XBH games and he *looks* the part at the plate. In light of Speier’s observations, voiceofreason’s prediction is starting to look conservatively reasonable. Agreed with your whole statement, I would be more than ecstatic with the line somewhere around 325/380/500 With the 50 doubles and 30 home runs. Sprinkle in the 15 steals. That would be an MVP season in my opinion If he had 50 doubles and 30 home runs, he'd have an ISO well over .175. If he did hit .325 with that many XBH and his typical walk rate, you're looking closer to .325/.400/.570 which is kinda crazy to predict IMO.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2018 8:10:18 GMT -5
Pencil me in for something more along the lines of .290/.365/.480 with 25-28 homers and 40 doubles or so. Anything better and I’m ecstatic.
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