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Playoff roster projection thread
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2017 17:59:13 GMT -5
Between the home runs and the walks to lefties and a probable way too unsustainable BABIP of .122, I don't think he's very good as a LOOGY either. Yeah the BABIP is probably weak contact based, but that's still way too low. It's less than half of Kimbrel's which is .258 this year. His FIP to LHH is 4.86.
While ERod hasn't been that great this year, he's still better than Scott. Farrell also has a tough time with using LOOGYs, so I'd rather avoid that.
Carson Smith is also better than Scott against LHH.
I mean after tonight's game, can anyone argue that Scott would be better than ERod in the bullpen? He doesn't throw enough strikes, but his stuff is ridiculous. I'm not sure you can even count on Price being better.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2017 4:45:30 GMT -5
All of this strikes me as premature, except as a guide for watching the remaining games.
I'm pretty sure that both Porcello and E-Rod will be on the roster, because if one of them gets hit hard early in game 4 you can switch to the other, with the added bonus of a lineup designed for the opposite handedness. The fifth starter can also give you an edge in a super extra-inning game.
They each have three starts left, so the game 4 decision is clearly still TBD. It's worth noting that E-Rod has the better numbers over their last 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 collective starts (numbers below), so he'd probably get the nod if the season were ending now.
The last RH spot in the pen is between Carson Smith and Matt Barnes (in that order of hope), with Heath Hembree as a backup plan and Austin Maddox as a longshot, just fractionally ahead of Elliott Maddox, Elliott Gould, Stephen Jay Gould, Stephen Sondheim, and Kevin Youkilis.
The LHR spot in the pen is probably Scott, but I think they're hoping it can be Price.
Leon, Nunez, and Davis (as PR) are be locks for the bench. Travis over Young or Lin over Holt would seem to be real long shots, but both are worth watching. (Note that they're very unlikely to do both, because that would make Davis the 4th OFer, and if they need him in that role, the entire reason for trading for him is negated.)
Edit:
The three numbers are xFIP-, FIP-, and ERA-
Last start: 94, 61, 33 ER 125, 77, 79 RP
Last 2 starts: 75, 67, 49 ER 142, 156, 172 RP
Last 3 starts: 06, 105, 93 ER 115, 130, 116 RP
Last 4 starts: 96, 98, 109 ER 110, 140, 128 RP
Last 5 starts: 95, 100, 108 ER 114, 137, 107 RP
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2017 7:07:52 GMT -5
I understand track records and all that, but with 90% of the season over, I'm not sure why they're not playing Lin over Holt who is pretty much as automatic of an out as an average pitcher these days. I also don't get why Vazquez isn't getting the bulk of the playing time. He is OPS'ing well over .900 since the beginning of August, while Leon is well under .500 in the same time period. We've already talked about Brentz and Young. You could also add Hanley in that conversation. JF is quite a stubborn manager and takes way too long to make changes. It doesn't look like he's going to be making any more.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Sept 13, 2017 8:30:28 GMT -5
I understand track records and all that, but with 90% of the season over, I'm not sure why they're not playing Lin over Holt who is pretty much as automatic of an out as an average pitcher these days. I also don't get why Vazquez isn't getting the bulk of the playing time. He is OPS'ing well over .900 since the beginning of August, while Leon is well under .500 in the same time period. We've already talked about Brentz and Young. You could also add Hanley in that conversation. JF is quite a stubborn manager and takes way too long to make changes. It doesn't look like he's going to be making any more. Good points, all.
It seems like we have these sorts of conversation every year regardless of who is managing the team. John Farrell and Terry Francona (and I guess nearly every MLB manager but I don't follow other teams very closely) seem to have this strong tendency to give deference to service time over what seems to be an obvious upgrade in talent (or at least short term successfulness). Daniel Nava couldn't get enough at bats when he deserved them and there are many other examples. Bullpen examples are pretty easy to come by as well.
As a fan, here is what I'd like. I want to have a reporter sit down with the manager for a lengthy interview and have him explain these kinds of things in a macro way. I'm not talking about JF explaining why Holt went in last night before Lin. He would logically be "defending" his decision to do that exact thing. I'd like to hear him explain in depth what his thought process is in general about how he thinks it is best to balance things like sticking with the veteran vs letting a hot hand continue to play vs developing a young player vs seeing what you have before things like the trade deadline and post season play.
Why is stuff like this, that seems pretty simple, a mystery to dedicated fans such as those of us on this message board?
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 13, 2017 8:41:21 GMT -5
I understand track records and all that, but with 90% of the season over, I'm not sure why they're not playing Lin over Holt who is pretty much as automatic of an out as an average pitcher these days. I also don't get why Vazquez isn't getting the bulk of the playing time. He is OPS'ing well over .900 since the beginning of August, while Leon is well under .500 in the same time period. We've already talked about Brentz and Young. You could also add Hanley in that conversation. JF is quite a stubborn manager and takes way too long to make changes. It doesn't look like he's going to be making any more. He's gotten 9 of the last 11 non-Sale starts.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2017 9:00:53 GMT -5
I understand track records and all that, but with 90% of the season over, I'm not sure why they're not playing Lin over Holt who is pretty much as automatic of an out as an average pitcher these days. I also don't get why Vazquez isn't getting the bulk of the playing time. He is OPS'ing well over .900 since the beginning of August, while Leon is well under .500 in the same time period. We've already talked about Brentz and Young. You could also add Hanley in that conversation. JF is quite a stubborn manager and takes way too long to make changes. It doesn't look like he's going to be making any more. Davenport has Lin as a .240 MLE EqA, and .243 in MLB. That's nailing it. Brock Holt has gone .270, .272, .249, .187. Lin is not as good as 2014-2015 Brock Holt. When you factor in defense, he's about as good but less versatile than 2016 Brock Holt. He's obviously better than 2017 Brock Holt, so far. Holt is projected the rest of the way to be .005 of wOBA worse than last year, so he and Lin have essentially identical offensive projections, and Holt has more defensive value due to his versatility, althoug Lin would be a better option to start at SS. Now, if Holt continues to struggle through the end of the season and they feel this has at least some post-concussion component, you could see a switch.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 13, 2017 9:12:59 GMT -5
Holt is clearly, visibly screwed up right now though. I absolutely tender him a contract because of the chance he's that 2014-2016 player again, but the last two weeks or so have moved to the position that letting him recover for the rest of 2017 is the best move for both the club and Holt's career.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 13, 2017 10:45:55 GMT -5
Holt is clearly, visibly screwed up right now though. I absolutely tender him a contract because of the chance he's that 2014-2016 player again, but the last two weeks or so have moved to the position that letting him recover for the rest of 2017 is the best move for both the club and Holt's career. Saying 2014-2016 is a bit of a tweek though. Defensively in his entire career, he hasn't played 900 innings at any single position so, I'm not so sure how much you can garner from small sample defensive metrics which seem all over the board. Look at his last 3 years half season splits for wRC+ (which pretty much matches wOBA): 2015 1st half 119 2nd half 76 2016 1st half 93 2nd half 83 2017 1st half 38 2nd half 35 That's a 2 1/2 year slide. Paraphrasing, he's just somebody that I used to know.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 13, 2017 12:05:30 GMT -5
All of this strikes me as premature, except as a guide for watching the remaining games. Yeah it definitely is but I figured I would already get the conversation going. The Sox are almost a lock for a playoff spot and they're now probably 80-90% likely going to win the division. I wouldn't discount Maddox as a longshot either, John Farrell and everyone is notiicing what he is doing in the bullpen right now.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2017 14:23:49 GMT -5
I understand track records and all that, but with 90% of the season over, I'm not sure why they're not playing Lin over Holt who is pretty much as automatic of an out as an average pitcher these days. I also don't get why Vazquez isn't getting the bulk of the playing time. He is OPS'ing well over .900 since the beginning of August, while Leon is well under .500 in the same time period. We've already talked about Brentz and Young. You could also add Hanley in that conversation. JF is quite a stubborn manager and takes way too long to make changes. It doesn't look like he's going to be making any more. Davenport has Lin as a .240 MLE EqA, and .243 in MLB. That's nailing it. Brock Holt has gone .270, .272, .249, .187. Lin is not as good as 2014-2015 Brock Holt. When you factor in defense, he's about as good but less versatile than 2016 Brock Holt. He's obviously better than 2017 Brock Holt, so far. Holt is projected the rest of the way to be .005 of wOBA worse than last year, so he and Lin have essentially identical offensive projections, and Holt has more defensive value due to his versatility, althoug Lin would be a better option to start at SS. Now, if Holt continues to struggle through the end of the season and they feel this has at least some post-concussion component, you could see a switch. Holt's projections don't account for the fact that he's a shell of his former self because of the concussions. So I'll just ignore them and bump it in a month with a "I told you so". There is no way in hell that Lin is not a big upgrade over Holt today and for the rest of the season. Holt's versatility isn't very useful in September. Lin is also 23 so of course he's not as good as Holt was in his prime yet. I'm not even really talking about careers, I'm talking about September, especially while Nunez is out.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 13, 2017 14:45:34 GMT -5
If the Red Sox advance to the LCS and do decide to go with 12 pitchers in that round, Holt's probably on the outside looking in with a bench of Leon, Nunez, Young, and Davis. The problem is that's a very right-handed bench and I wonder about Young's utility if you aren't starting Nunez - maybe he's the one who gets left off. You're right that the team needs to be looking at Lin over Holt for at least the LDS - this is for 2 months now that Holt's been at a sub-.500 OPS, and Lin's a better fielder and baserunner at least.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Sept 13, 2017 15:53:28 GMT -5
Why is Davis a lock at this point? I'd argue that Lin is almost a better pinch runner than a 37 year old Davis and Lin is a much better fielder and more versatile. And while Davis can hit lefties, that's what you have Young and Nunez for.
I would go with a 5 man bench of Leon, Nunez, Young, Lin, and Travis/Holt.
Bullpen get tricky, and I think at this point we can't count on Price for the ALDS at least.
Kimbrel, Reed, Workman, Kelly, Smith, E-Rod, Maddox, Porcello/Fister would be my 8 for now. E-Rod isn't the ideal LOOGY with his reverse splits but his stuff is likely to tick up out of the pen. Smith has great numbers vs lefties as well and Reed has reverse splits too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 13, 2017 16:29:10 GMT -5
Why is Davis a lock at this point? I'd argue that Lin is almost a better pinch runner than a 37 year old Davis and Lin is a much better fielder and more versatile. And while Davis can hit lefties, that's what you have Young and Nunez for. I would go with a 5 man bench of Leon, Nunez, Young, Lin, and Travis/Holt. Bullpen get tricky, and I think at this point we can't count on Price for the ALDS at least. Kimbrel, Reed, Workman, Kelly, Smith, E-Rod, Maddox, Porcello/Fister would be my 8 for now. E-Rod isn't the ideal LOOGY with his reverse splits but his stuff is likely to tick up out of the pen. Smith has great numbers vs lefties as well and Reed has reverse splits too. Well, it depends on what you want out of a spot where the two are theoretically competing. Lin covers SS/2B/3B/CF. Davis covers LF/CF/RF. So I'm not sure "more versatile" is a descriptor for either - they cover entirely different positions. As for pinch running, Lin has all of one major league stolen base in two attempts. He's an above-average runner, but he's only 11 for 18 in steal attempts this year, 3 for 8 in AAA and MLB. Last year he was only 10 for 17. He's a fast baserunner but not a good base stealer. Davis isn't the burner he once was but 28 for 35 in MLB this year is far better than can be expected of Lin. Davis is clearly the better pinch runner, imo. But in the context of the rest of the bench, I don't see the point of carrying both Lin and Holt, so I don't think Lin vs. Davis is even the debate to have. If Lin takes someone's spot, it's Holt given their redundancy. If Travis is going to make the roster, I'd think it'd be in place of Young as the primary RHH bench bat, the thinking being that Davis and Lin have the OF covered.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Sept 13, 2017 17:28:37 GMT -5
Why is Davis a lock at this point? I'd argue that Lin is almost a better pinch runner than a 37 year old Davis and Lin is a much better fielder and more versatile. And while Davis can hit lefties, that's what you have Young and Nunez for. I would go with a 5 man bench of Leon, Nunez, Young, Lin, and Travis/Holt. Bullpen get tricky, and I think at this point we can't count on Price for the ALDS at least. Kimbrel, Reed, Workman, Kelly, Smith, E-Rod, Maddox, Porcello/Fister would be my 8 for now. E-Rod isn't the ideal LOOGY with his reverse splits but his stuff is likely to tick up out of the pen. Smith has great numbers vs lefties as well and Reed has reverse splits too. Well, it depends on what you want out of a spot where the two are theoretically competing. Lin covers SS/2B/3B/CF. Davis covers LF/CF/RF. So I'm not sure "more versatile" is a descriptor for either - they cover entirely different positions. As for pinch running, Lin has all of one major league stolen base in two attempts. He's an above-average runner, but he's only 11 for 18 in steal attempts this year, 3 for 8 in AAA and MLB. Last year he was only 10 for 17. He's a fast baserunner but not a good base stealer. Davis isn't the burner he once was but 28 for 35 in MLB this year is far better than can be expected of Lin. Davis is clearly the better pinch runner, imo. But in the context of the rest of the bench, I don't see the point of carrying both Lin and Holt, so I don't think Lin vs. Davis is even the debate to have. If Lin takes someone's spot, it's Holt given their redundancy. If Travis is going to make the roster, I'd think it'd be in place of Young as the primary RHH bench bat, the thinking being that Davis and Lin have the OF covered. Hmm I thought that Davis had taken a step back as a runner without looking up the stats but I guess not. His 29.3 mph top sprint is tops on the team as well. I guess with Nunez's PCL injury, keeping him as a pinch runner would be better. The Travis/Young debate is more interesting it seems.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2017 17:45:43 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if Nunez doesn't start every game in the playoffs. I don't know who will have to sit for him, but Farrell clearly loves him.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 13, 2017 21:19:20 GMT -5
Assuming reasonable health for Pedroia and Nunez going into the playoffs, it would be more than defensible to leave Hanley off the roster and play Nunez at DH. In that scenario, what is Hanley's role? Who would he PH for other than maybe Leon, who I hope not to see in a PS game anyways. Hanley can't PR and he's certainly not a defensive replacement, not at 1B, not in LF, not anywhere.
You'd have 11 P and a bench of Leon, Young, R. Davis, Holt (because you need a backup IF) and whoever - maybe Travis. I'd think of Travis as a more viable PH than Hanley and his 94 OPS-plus and -.2 WAR (B-Ref) at this point. It won't happen but I'd leave Hanley off the roster. He sucks that badly at this point.
(Now that I look at it, that's a pretty crappy bench.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 13, 2017 23:45:44 GMT -5
I've been saying that Bogaerts is the odd man out, but looking closer at the numbers and factoring in defense, at this point, it may well be Hanley who is the odd man out.
They are better defensively with Bogaerts at SS and Nunez DHing. They have less HR power without Hanley, but he's done practically nothing else and overall his numbers are as weak as Bogaerts.
I guess they'll have to look at matchups and see historically who has the best numbers or maybe one of them will get hot at some point, but at this point I think it would be Hanley who'd be displaced from the starting lineup rather than Bogaerts.
If we get more of the same from Hanley next year, they'll have to make sure his plate appearance totals don't trigger the 2019 option. It would be very beneficial to have $22 million freed up after next season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 14, 2017 2:57:36 GMT -5
Yeap, if the Sox were looking at the roster and just making roster decisions and not factoring anything but numbers, then there is a case that Hanley and Young shouldn't be on the playoff roster.
Neither of them being versatility. None of them has hit all that much and none of them bring value on the base paths.
I'd argue that a Moreland and Sam Travis platoon at first base in the playoffs would be more than adequate. Nunez would also be a adequate DH because he can actually hit, unlike Hanely. Nunez brings a ton of value on the basepaths also.
It would also allow you to carry a 4 man bench also in Holt (or Lin), Leon, Davis, and Travis. I don't think the Sox will go this route however, because they go way out of the way to appease veteran players like Hanley and Young, despite performance.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 14, 2017 3:06:08 GMT -5
Just a side note, but the Sox are really playing a game of Russian roulette with the 3 and 4 starters in the playoff rotation. The drop off from Pomeranz to the number 3 starter is enormous.
I've been trying to think of the biggest reason why the Sox haven't pulled away with the division this year, and the biggest reason I can think of is the loss of David Price for the 3 quarters of the season. Sure, the Yankees improved at the deadline but if Price was here all year, the Sox could easily be up by 6 or 7 games right now.
Either way Farrell should approach the games 3 and 4 starters with a quick hook. Like a 2 innings quick hook if need be. In the event that the Sox go down 2 games to 1 in the ALDS, the Sox should turn to Sale and not the Game 4 starter, like they would of done last year if they made it to game 4 last year with Porcello.
Pomeranz and Sale are going to have to carry the Sox if they even have a shot of going to the world series, especially Sale.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 14, 2017 7:28:47 GMT -5
I remember thinking last year how I thought E Rod may have the best 'playoff' stuff on the team. After Sale, ERod/Pomeranz are the guys who have the highest potential in a playoff game to shut down another team, IMO. That said, if the best you can hope for is 5-6 IP from those two, thats a hell of a burden to put on your bullpen every night.
I've been on the Lin>Holt bandwagon for months. There's a lot of evidence the Red Sox mismanaged his concussion and may have screwed him up more. You don't return to play until symptom-free. He was rushed back and it's a travesty more people haven't called the Red Sox out on it *cough* Alex Speier, Tim Britton
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 14, 2017 7:41:06 GMT -5
I've been trying to think of the biggest reason why the Sox haven't pulled away with the division this year, and the biggest reason I can think of is the loss of David Price for the 3 quarters of the season. Sure, the Yankees improved at the deadline but if Price was here all year, the Sox could easily be up by 6 or 7 games right now. First of all, I'm not as big a Price hater as some, but you and I have vastly different opinions of Price's abilities, particularly as he wasn't particularly outstanding this year. Kyle Kendrick was bad, but Fister/Velazquez have been as good or better than I would hope for Price. You're suggesting that in 2/3 of a season (Price made 11 starts), Price would be worth 4 wins. The last and only 6 WAR season he had was 2012. Fister also had 8 QS out of 11. Last year was worth 3.1 for the whole year. Before last night Fister had 4 straight starts of 7IP and <3 ER. Price has never done that for Boston (cherry picking a bit on stats, he had a few good runs last year but just <7IP or 3 ER once). While having Price perform well would help, I can't get close to "easily be 6 or 7 up right now"
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 14, 2017 9:32:28 GMT -5
I remember thinking last year how I thought E Rod may have the best 'playoff' stuff on the team. After Sale, ERod/Pomeranz are the guys who have the highest potential in a playoff game to shut down another team, IMO. That said, if the best you can hope for is 5-6 IP from those two, thats a hell of a burden to put on your bullpen every night. I've been on the Lin>Holt bandwagon for months. There's a lot of evidence the Red Sox mismanaged his concussion and may have screwed him up more. You don't return to play until symptom-free. He was rushed back and it's a travesty more people haven't called the Red Sox out on it *cough* Alex Speier, Tim Britton It's a travesty that people who aren't doctors haven't wildly speculated on Holt's health?
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 14, 2017 10:37:51 GMT -5
I remember thinking last year how I thought E Rod may have the best 'playoff' stuff on the team. After Sale, ERod/Pomeranz are the guys who have the highest potential in a playoff game to shut down another team, IMO. That said, if the best you can hope for is 5-6 IP from those two, thats a hell of a burden to put on your bullpen every night. I've been on the Lin>Holt bandwagon for months. There's a lot of evidence the Red Sox mismanaged his concussion and may have screwed him up more. You don't return to play until symptom-free. He was rushed back and it's a travesty more people haven't called the Red Sox out on it *cough* Alex Speier, Tim Britton It's a travesty that people who aren't doctors haven't wildly speculated on Holt's health? Return to play guidelines are pretty well-accepted. And yes, if we can accuse Francona of a drug problem, we can ask if someone potentially experiencing side effects from a concussion should be playing.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 14, 2017 10:43:32 GMT -5
It's a travesty that people who aren't doctors haven't wildly speculated on Holt's health? Return to play guidelines are pretty well-accepted. And yes, if we can accuse Francona of a drug problem, we can ask if someone potentially experiencing side effects from a concussion should be playing. Right, because we all agree that Francona was treated fairly by the Boston media on the way out the door. You don't know more about Holt's health than Holt, the Red Sox, or the Boston media. And pretending you care more about his health than they do is the most straight-up audacious example of concern trolling I've ever seen on this board. If he was playing well, would you give a damn if he was having concussion symptoms? It doesn't seem like it, since your argument stems from the fact you think Lin is a better baseball player right now.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 14, 2017 10:53:41 GMT -5
Return to play guidelines are pretty well-accepted. And yes, if we can accuse Francona of a drug problem, we can ask if someone potentially experiencing side effects from a concussion should be playing. Right, because we all agree that Francona was treated fairly by the Boston media on the way out the door. You don't know more about Holt's health than Holt, the Red Sox, or the Boston media. And pretending you care more about his health than they do is the most straight-up audacious example of concern trolling I've ever seen on this board. So I'm not going to get into an argument over this, frankly you go out of your way to criticize everything I post, so I don't pay a lot of attention to you at this point. You're actually the reason I'm not a Patreon or whatever that thing is, TBH, because I think Chris and Ian do awesome work and I appreciate what they do. I do take offense to that last bit particularly though. FWIW I have had concerns since this first started, well before there were performance issues. While I think the two are possibly related, from afar, my concern for traumatic brain injuries in sports goes far beyond the Red Sox, and whether Brock Holtcit. But I assure you that 1) my concern is genuine and 2) there's plenty of public statements about what he's experienced going through this. I don't know all the details, but there's certainly enough between comments and performance to ask that question. If that means I disagree with the medical staff, so be it.
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