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Playoff roster projection thread
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 14, 2017 11:01:40 GMT -5
I'm sorry if you think I'm singling you out. But I have no patience for non-doctors who think they know more than a team's medical staff about concussions, and I have just as little patience for you thinking Britton and Speier aren't being thorough and would be doing a service to speculate on Holt's health without reason.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 14, 2017 11:03:49 GMT -5
I'm sorry if you think I'm singling you out. But I have no patience for non-doctors who think they know more than a team's medical staff about concussions, and I have just as little patience for you thinking Britton and Speier aren't being thorough and would be doing a service to speculate on Holt's health without reason. <---- board certified physician who focused on sports medicine in medical school. Edit: to be clear, not a sports medicine doctor or neurologist, just asking questions based on my (albeit limited) experience
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 14, 2017 11:09:12 GMT -5
I'm sorry if you think I'm singling you out. But I have no patience for non-doctors who think they know more than a team's medical staff about concussions, and I have just as little patience for you thinking Britton and Speier aren't being thorough and would be doing a service to speculate on Holt's health without reason. <---- board certified physician who focused on sports medicine in medical school. If that is true, then I apologize.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 14, 2017 11:36:45 GMT -5
Weren't there statements during his rehab at Pawtucket that said the vertigo was not concussion related ? I just Googled it and that wasn't the case but I did find this with the closing statement: "If I wasn't ready, I probably wouldn't be here," Holt said. "It's been a long jounrey, but I'm happy to be back." www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/boston_red_sox_brock_holt_talk.htmlHe was apparently under the care of Dr. Micky Collins in Pittsburgh who it appears specializes in this and had also treated David Ross and Dale Ernhart Jr. It looks to me like the Sox are doing their due diligence.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 14, 2017 12:18:08 GMT -5
Weren't there statements during his rehab at Pawtucket that said the vertigo was not concussion related ? I just Googled it and that wasn't the case but I did find this with the closing statement: "If I wasn't ready, I probably wouldn't be here," Holt said. "It's been a long jounrey, but I'm happy to be back." www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/boston_red_sox_brock_holt_talk.htmlHe was apparently under the care of Dr. Micky Collins in Pittsburgh who it appears specializes in this and had also treated David Ross and Dale Ernhart Jr. It looks to me like the Sox are doing their due diligence. If they listened to the Pittsburgh people, that's fair. I think they may have been the ones who missed the stuff on Sidney Crosby, but Pittsburgh are the leaders in concussion care...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 14, 2017 12:28:10 GMT -5
I would have to imagine that they do. To me, it's essentially the same situation as consulting Dr. Andrews for arms. I keep seeing posters say that the Sox should have had TJ on Price when his recommendation was no surgery. Do people expect them to send a player out to a specialist then ignore the specialist ?
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 14, 2017 12:36:29 GMT -5
I would have to imagine that they do. To me, it's essentially the same situation as consulting Dr. Andrews for arms. I keep seeing posters say that the Sox should have had TJ on Price when his recommendation was no surgery. Do people expect them to send a player out to a specialist then ignore the specialist ? I feel like this happens all the time... doctor shop till you get the answer you want to hear. There's the lawsuits coming up now with players (more in college) not being told of results, risks, etc.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 14, 2017 12:59:28 GMT -5
That could be the case in general but doesn't seem to be the situation in this particular case. Reading the article left me with the impression that he was under that particular doctor's care from the time that the recovery was slower than expected.
lol, don't get me started on American doctors. I live in an economic third world country who's medical care pretty much blows out USA in every WHO category except dollars spent. Ponder this, Filipino midwives who have just a 3 month course have a higher live birth rate than American doctors.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2017 10:30:10 GMT -5
September usage for the seven possibilities for the last pitching spot, after the five starters, Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, Workman, and Price. This is the average Leverage Index entering the game, excluding the 9/5 game where a bunch of guys were forced to get 2+, followed by total appearances in parentheses.
0.72 (4) Scott 0.22 (5) Abad 0.19 (7) Maddox 0.16 (6) Barnes 0.13 (4) Hembree 0.03 (5) Boyer 0.03 (3) Smith
You'd guess that they'll try to establish Smith as the guy while continuing to give Barnes chances to re-establish himself in low but not vanishing leverage. If neither steps up (and Barnes would have to be dominant), Scott seems likely to get the nod. His fanning Barreto last Thursday after Workman walked the leadoff hitter in the 7th, up 3-1, is the only high-lev BFP any of them have had in September, other than in the 9/5 epic.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 18, 2017 10:53:57 GMT -5
I don't think we can assume all 5 starters make the roster, especially in the LDS. Although it's the most likely scenario of course.
Also, until the club gets more breathing room, the studs are going to get all of the high leverage, although I guess one of these guys sneaking in there once or twice could be telling. Like you said, the sample is basically only Scott getting the one high-leverage outing this month for these guys, so I don't think this is telling us much yet other than that we don't know anything.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 19, 2017 1:16:26 GMT -5
I don't think we can assume all 5 starters make the roster, especially in the LDS. Although it's the most likely scenario of course. Also, until the club gets more breathing room, the studs are going to get all of the high leverage, although I guess one of these guys sneaking in there once or twice could be telling. Like you said, the sample is basically only Scott getting the one high-leverage outing this month for these guys, so I don't think this is telling us much yet other than that we don't know anything. The scenario where they don't take all 5 is pretty clear: Smith nails down a job, and Porcello is real good the rest of the way and E-Rod isn't. In that case, they'd leave E-Rod off the roster and include Scott. Because of E-Rod's inconsistency, if he's the choice for a start where there isn't an off-day following, I think that Porcello is still on the team as a designated long reliever if E-Rod sruggles. Ditto if Fister is inconsistent the rest of the way. Tonight told us almost nothing abut the rotation, given the way he was squeezed from the outset. We did learn more stuff about the bullpen candidates today, though. Abad came in with a 1.35 LI, but only, I think, because he started warming up to succeed Hembree when the LI was .48 and going down if the Sox failed to score. Scott came in with a 1.51 in his LOOGY role. That's two data points that JF trusts him in high-lev. And then he turned to Barnes and Smith in extras, and both were impressive. Smith in particular is going to get every chance to claim a spot.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 19, 2017 4:33:32 GMT -5
Yeap, new revised rotation for this thread.
So for the revised new rotation it'll likely be-
Sale Porcello Pomeranz Eduardo Rodriguez
The reason why I can see Porcello starting game 2 is because of the reason John Tommase stated in WEEI. Game 2 will be started on the road and Porcello has been better on the road this year. Pomeranz has also been better at home this year, which probably means he would get game 3 at home. The Sox look at these kind of things.
I see Fister not making the postseason roster all over again. That probably opens up a spot for a reliever on the roster. I'd personally go with a 4 man bench of Sam Travis, Leon, Holt, and Davis. Nunez can be the 3B and Devers can be the DH with his spotty defense at 3B lately. Hanley and Young should be left off the postseason roster. That leaves a 8 man bullpen possibly with these arms hopefully-
Kimbrel Reed Workman Robbie Scott Price Austin Maddox Joe Kelly
There is one more spot open in the bullpen at this point. I hope it goes to Carson Smith at that point. He's better than Hembree and Barnes and would give the Sox another high leverage arm if they need to pull a starter early in a postseason game.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2017 9:34:23 GMT -5
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Post by patford on Sept 19, 2017 12:09:29 GMT -5
There is nothing rules related in MLB that is more important than having balls and strikes called by a device rather than a home plate umpire.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 19, 2017 13:09:06 GMT -5
Sounds crazy, but I'm wondering about the same thing. When he was pitching great you might think, well he struggles in the 1st inning, but if/when he gets through that, he starts hitting his spots and he can shut down the other team and roll his way to at least 7 innings. There are two thoughts I've had about Fister that don't necessarily apply to the other starters. The first is that Fister is not a 3 ER, 6 IP quality start type pitcher. He either dominates or he is batting practice. The second thing is that even when he rolls he struggles initially in the game, which is the last thing you want from a reliever. You can't afford Hyde Fister when playing in the post-season. You can't take a chance that you're buried by the 2nd inning. Somebody who keeps you in the game even if they're not as likely to roll might be your best bet. I think either Fister starts or he doesn't make the roster altogether. So that hinges more on David Price. Before he looked so dominating in his outing I was of the mindset that he could really be a weapon in the bullpen and that the last thing you want to do is hope that he can give you 4 or 5 respectable innings while having to hear about his not-so-stellar post-season record. Now, after seeing him pitch, I'm curious if he can be stretched out, say 4 innings (or 65 pitches next outing) and perhaps 6 innings (or 90 pitches worth the following outing). If Price can be your legit #3 rotation starter, then that decreases the likelihood of Fister making the roster, so that instead of 2 of Fister/Porcello/E-Rod making the rotation, now you have only one of those three making the rotation. And the one thing you can say about Porcello's season as tough as it's been to watch at times is that even if he takes a bit of a hit, he's usually good for 6 innings with perhaps 3 or 4 runs, which normally keeps you in the ballgame, although the offense at many times has taken a sabbatical when he pitches. So if Price stakes his claim to the #3 spot in the rotation and if Porcello is the more consistent starter than the boom/bust style of Fister, and that's discounting that E-Rod might have finally found his post-injury groove again, then that's how Fister can go from #3 to off the roster. Another positive sign, if Price does pitch in the rotation, is that perhaps a key bullpen spot could be secured by Carson Smith. Early on, I figured his velocity would be down and he probably couldn't pitch back-to-back days and would not be seriously considered for a spot on the roster, but now it's at least a possibility and it would make it a bit easier for Price to go into the rotation, although I do honestly think he could be a force out of the pen, but if E-Rod is pitching well, he could also be a help to the pen, assuming he makes the roster. Even Maddox is making a case for himself, and Kelly has improved his own case, while Barnes and Hembree have fallen back, and Scott probably depends upon the structure of the pen. I think a lot of this swaying back and forth isn't necessarily overreacting to the latest developments (ok maybe it is a bit), but I think it points to the amount of reasonably good viable options the Sox have and the interchangeability in these options. The bench will probably have five guys. We know Leon, Young, and Davis will be on the roster. If healthy enough, Hanley will be on the roster and most likely platoon with Moreland. Only the 5th spot is truly variable where it's either Holt, Lin, or Marrero. At this point Hanley is definitely odd man out of the lineup. You have the Killer Bs in the outfield. With Devers' struggles recently he either plays 3b with Nunez DHing or now more likely Devers becomes the DH with Nunez at 3b once he returns. Bogaerts has been playing better recently, and the Red Sox will want to have the strongest possible defense they can have for the post-season (and Nunez playing SS so Hanley can DH certainly wouldn't accomplish that.) And if it comes down to that then it's Farrell's soft spot for Holt versus a lefty bat in Lin versus the best defensive guy of the three in Marrero, which could be needed for Devers if Devers play 3b instead of DHing (as opposed to Nunez). Usually with a dozen games left to go and the post-season looking imminent, the post-season roster is more settled. Instead we have a lot of intrigue.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 19, 2017 14:23:47 GMT -5
The Sox would of rode Fister's hot hand into the playoffs, if he kept up his hot pitching.
But even excluding last night's start, he's had one other non competitive start in a row. Making for 2 non competitive starts. You can now take him out with the excuse of him no longer being hot.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 20, 2017 2:14:28 GMT -5
I'm not so sure 'hot hand' will be a significant factor in determining the four starters or their order. To me, that's more of a fan thing. I rather think pitcher repertoire and matchups will have a greater impact on the decision.
The re-emergence of Smith and especially the potential of Price as a dominant long reliever will also impact that decision.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 20, 2017 2:37:55 GMT -5
I'm not so sure 'hot hand' will be a significant factor in determining the four starters or their order. To me, that's more of a fan thing. I rather think pitcher repertoire and matchups will have a greater impact on the decision. The re-emergence of Smith and especially the potential of Price as a dominant long reliever will also impact that decision. I agree on the point on Smith and Price, but teams do tend to look at the most recent trends along with overall performance. I could of guarantee you that if Fister had 2 better outings than what he showed, he would of been in the conversation for a playoff spot. Right now, I think he's made the choice a little easier. His mediocre stuff is being hit again the past two appearances and he's back to being on the outside looking in, imo right now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 20, 2017 9:50:38 GMT -5
I'm not so sure 'hot hand' will be a significant factor in determining the four starters or their order. To me, that's more of a fan thing. I rather think pitcher repertoire and matchups will have a greater impact on the decision. The re-emergence of Smith and especially the potential of Price as a dominant long reliever will also impact that decision. I agree on the point on Smith and Price, but teams do tend to look at the most recent trends along with overall performance. I could of guarantee you that if Fister had 2 better outings than what he showed, he would of been in the conversation for a playoff spot. Right now, I think he's made the choice a little easier. His mediocre stuff is being hit again the past two appearances and he's back to being on the outside looking in, imo right now. Pitching success is a function of two things: stuff (pitching repertoire, velocity, and movement), and command / control. The former tends to be constant over long stretches of time (perhaps declining slowly and gradually due to fatigue or health) but the latter, as every baseball fan knows, can vary widely from start to start and (as every fan should know) needs to be assessed over a long time frame. For most pitchers, there is no "hot hand" for command, or "slumps." Unless you can see messed-up mechanics, it's not streaky at all, and an outing where a guy commands better or worse than usual has no predictive power. You can speculate about reasons for bad days -- in 2004, for instance, it seemed that Derek Lowe's command in a given start was a function of how much partying he did the night before. But it's rare that you can detect a pattern, let alone devise a reason for the pattern. Fister went to the scrap pile because of a serious decline in stuff in 2015 and 2016. He was signed because scouts thought his stuff had returned to his 2011-2014 prime. He walked 17 guys in his first 25.1 innings with us, and everyone here (myself concluded) wanted him DFA'd. We were unaware of the scouting report, of course, and no one bothered to look at his stuff with the available data. Over his next 3 starts he walked 6 in 18.1 and had a 4.91 ERA versus the 6.04 he had earlier. Over his next 4 starts he walked 8 in 30 IP and had a 1.50 ERA. Online analysis showed that in every way (both every aspects of the results, plus all the stuff you could measure), the Fister of these 7 starts was identical to the Fister who averaged 4.8 bWAR per 32 starts from 2011 to 2014. Now, here there's an obvious pattern here, because he had just 15.2 pro IP this year when we signed him. The team had stuck with him because they thought his command was merely rusty, and they had been rewarded big-time when that rust was eliminated. Subsequently, he had one start where his command was off, and one where he gave up a cheap run in the first inning (par for his course), got into some trouble in the second (double, walk), and then should have fanned the next hitter on three perfect pitches at the knees, all of which, however, were called balls. We have no idea whether that would happened starting from that point with competent umpiring, so his rough outing here would need to be taken with a grain of salt even in a scenario where you thought that any command difficulties he had were part of a pattern caused by something, rather than totally random. After what were essentially 25 spring training innings, he has held opponents to a .218 / .289 / .337 line. That stretch includes 5 mediocre starts sandwiched around 4 brilliant ones. That's a guy who is obviously still in the discussion for one of the last three rotation spots. And this is not subject to informed debate; to opine otherwise is to reveal a lack of understanding of very fundamental aspects of the game. teams do tend to look at the most recent trends along with overall performance
Only if they are accompanied by measurable changes in stuff, or changes in command related to identifiable changes in mechanics or off-field behavior (the latter of which we are not, of course, privy to).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 21, 2017 8:02:24 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 21, 2017 9:15:17 GMT -5
With our penchant for playing long games, does that impact how many pitchers we carry? Fister off roster now?
Gm 1 Sale Gm 2 Pomeranz Gm 3 Porcello Gm 4 E-Rod Gm 5 Sale
Pen Kimbrel Reed Workman Price Kelly Barnes C. Smith
Bench Leon Devers(Starting Nunez at 3B if healthy) R. Davis - Can pinch run Infielder - We'll go with Holt. I'd rather go with Lin or Marrero. S. Travis over C. Young. We'll go with Young
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2017 14:01:37 GMT -5
It's worth noting that the Astros have just 2 LHB, only one of which, Reddick, has the big splits that call for a LHR. McCann's splits are smaller than average, so you are better off with a RHR who's tough on LHB.
Of the two switch hitters, Beltran is neutral and Gonzalez is weaker from his right side. So E-Rod would be helpful against him.
I think at this point, there are six candidates for 5 spots. Porcello is extremely likely, Workman very likely, Smith fairly likely, and E-Rod, Fister, and Barnes represent a very tough decision where the last 10 games will be a factor. They'll keep Scott ready for a potential series where there are more LHB for him to face.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 21, 2017 14:22:59 GMT -5
With our penchant for playing long games, does that impact how many pitchers we carry? Fister off roster now? Gm 1 Sale Gm 2 Pomeranz Gm 3 Porcello Gm 4 E-Rod Gm 5 Sale Pen Kimbrel Reed Workman Price Kelly Barnes C. Smith Bench Leon Devers(Starting Nunez at 3B if healthy) R. Davis - Can pinch run Infielder - We'll go with Holt. I'd rather go with Lin or Marrero. S. Travis over C. Young. We'll go with Young I would not be a happy camper if Devers is sat so that Hanley can DH, I would prefer to DH Nunez or Devers over Hanley as I think both of them give a lot more to this offense than Hanley can at this point in time.
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Post by m1keyboots on Sept 21, 2017 15:48:31 GMT -5
Yeap, new revised rotation for this thread. So for the revised new rotation it'll likely be- Sale Porcello Pomeranz Eduardo Rodriguez The reason why I can see Porcello starting game 2 is because of the reason John Tommase stated in WEEI. Game 2 will be started on the road and Porcello has been better on the road this year. Pomeranz has also been better at home this year, which probably means he would get game 3 at home. The Sox look at these kind of things. I see Fister not making the postseason roster all over again. That probably opens up a spot for a reliever on the roster. I'd personally go with a 4 man bench of Sam Travis, Leon, Holt, and Davis. Nunez can be the 3B and Devers can be the DH with his spotty defense at 3B lately. Hanley and Young should be left off the postseason roster. That leaves a 8 man bullpen possibly with these arms hopefully- Kimbrel Reed Workman Robbie Scott Price Austin Maddox Joe Kelly There is one more spot open in the bullpen at this point. I hope it goes to Carson Smith at that point. He's better than Hembree and Barnes and would give the Sox another high leverage arm if they need to pull a starter early in a postseason game. I know this may be an unpopular opinion, but after seeing Hanley's pair of doubles and hard hit single last night and at times clutch hitting during the season, I feel like they still need that right handed power bat. Which is completely devoid on the rest of the roster. I know its a stretch, but leaving Travis off would be my solution to that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2017 22:23:23 GMT -5
A healthy, in synch mechanically Hanley Ramirez is probably still the second best hitter on this team. The best "problem" this team could acquire in its last 11 games is for Hanley to put up a 900 - 1.000 OPS over them and hence prove he's 100%, and thus make getting Nunez into the lineup a challenge.
He looked great last night, especially considering the long layoff.
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