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Playoff roster projection thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2017 11:10:31 GMT -5
And so - Bravo for Maddox and Smith and nixing Barnes and Hembree. And Bravo for leaving Young off. Carrying Holt and Marrero both - versatility, defense, but hopefully won't be called upon for their hitting skills! Seems like a common sense roster that reflects recent performances. Marrero over Young was the important decision, because he can actually start tomorrow versus Keuchel and he'll play in other games when we're ahead late. Maddox over Barnes only makes sense if Maddox's improved control since his September recall has a scouting reason (as TearsIn04 suggested might be the case). I'd love to see some video comparisons versus his earlier stints.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2017 11:16:20 GMT -5
Rob BradfordVerified account @bradfo 8m8 minutes ago Early indications for Red Sox lineup: Nunez will DH, hitting second with Hanley starting on the bench. Nothing officially released yet . . . I also saw someplace that Xander will likely lead off. I hope Bradford is full of ****, because I think that's a terrible move -- both starting Nunez over Ramirez, and hitting him 2nd and (presumably) Pedroia 6th. If they keep Benny 3rd and Moreland 5th instead of swapping them, that'll complete a suboptimal picture. If I have time today, I'll do a thread on protection and lineup production.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 5, 2017 11:21:10 GMT -5
Two things I question about the roster:
1. If Chris Young wasn't good enough to make it, why not give Brentz a shot in September?
2. Matt Barnes was the Red Sox second most valuable relief pitcher this year (1.0 fWAR) and in Sep/Oct has 17 strikeouts to only 1 walk over 9.2 innings.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2017 11:25:34 GMT -5
It's 'bout time JF started reading my posts. Marrero and Maddox on the roster, wtih Nunez (pray for health) playing ahead of Hanley.
And I love carrying 11 P's, instead of 12. With five games in seven days with Sale pitching two of them and Price and Maddox having multiple-inning potential, we don't need 12. It would only become a problem if they played a 19-inning epic in game 1 or 3.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2017 11:28:43 GMT -5
Xander Bogaerts SS Eduardo Nunez DH Andrew Benintendi LF Mookie Betts CF Mitch Moreland 1B Dustin Pedroia 2B Rafael Devers 3B Sandy Leon C Jackie Bradley Jr. CF
per Bradford, WEEI
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 5, 2017 11:31:33 GMT -5
Two things I question about the roster: 1. If Chris Young wasn't good enough to make it, why not give Brentz a shot in September? 2. Matt Barnes was the Red Sox second most valuable relief pitcher this year (1.0 fWAR) and in Sep/Oct has 17 strikeouts to only 1 walk over 9.2 innings. He’s also absolutely horrible in high leverage situations and that’s exactly what playoff appearances are. Nunez over Hanley is crazy to me. I know they had polar opposite years vs expectations, but come on... Nunez has barely played recently.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 5, 2017 11:32:18 GMT -5
Two things I question about the roster: 1. If Chris Young wasn't good enough to make it, why not give Brentz a shot in September? 2. Matt Barnes was the Red Sox second most valuable relief pitcher this year (1.0 fWAR) and in Sep/Oct has 17 strikeouts to only 1 walk over 9.2 innings. Barnes had plenty of chances to solidify his spot. He didn't because of his propensity to walk batters. I don't blame the decision makers here. we cant just look at his recent performances and think that he was fixed.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 5, 2017 11:34:21 GMT -5
Xander Bogaerts SS Eduardo Nunez DH Andrew Benintendi LF Mookie Betts CF Mitch Moreland 1B Dustin Pedroia 2B Rafael Devers 3B Sandy Leon C Jackie Bradley Jr. CF per Bradford, WEEI hurts not having CV bat in the lineup. Hope we don't need him to pinch hit, but it is nice to have him there.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2017 11:55:15 GMT -5
And so - Bravo for Maddox and Smith and nixing Barnes and Hembree. And Bravo for leaving Young off. Carrying Holt and Marrero both - versatility, defense, but hopefully won't be called upon for their hitting skills! Seems like a common sense roster that reflects recent performances. Marrero over Young was the important decision, because he can actually start tomorrow versus Keuchel and he'll play in other games when we're ahead late. Maddox over Barnes only makes sense if Maddox's improved control since his September recall has a scouting reason (as TearsIn04 suggested might be the case). I'd love to see some video comparisons versus his earlier stints. Barnes walked zero batters in his last 10 appearances (vs. 16 Ks). They're only 11 months apart in age. There's really no reason to think Maddox's improved control was a real change any more than Barnes' might have been, other than the fact his case(s) of the yips came hidden in the minor leagues while Barnes August slump came in public view. In his final 53 outings, Barnes went 54 innings, struck out 69, and walked 18. But, because he's a set-up reliever, everyone just remembers the bad times in there. EDIT: If the Red Sox honestly think Barnes is worse than Kelly or Maddox, some GM out there is going to fleece them for him next month.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 5, 2017 11:56:23 GMT -5
Two things I question about the roster: 1. If Chris Young wasn't good enough to make it, why not give Brentz a shot in September? 2. Matt Barnes was the Red Sox second most valuable relief pitcher this year (1.0 fWAR) and in Sep/Oct has 17 strikeouts to only 1 walk over 9.2 innings. Barnes had plenty of chances to solidify his spot. He didn't because of his propensity to walk batters. I don't blame the decision makers here. we cant just look at his recent performances and think that he was fixed. Again, Matt Barnes was the second most valuable Red Sox relief pitcher this season, not just recently. Joe Kelly gave up 7 walks in his last 12.1 innings. He also gave up 4.19 bb/9 as opposed to Matt Barnes 3.62 bb/9 or Doug Fister's 3.79 bb/9 over the course of the season. If your argument is that Barnes shouldn't be on the roster because he walks too many batters, then it doesn't hold water due to the presence of Fister and Kelly. If it's due to Barnes not pitching well in high leverage situations, the fWAR includes this, so it again doesn't fit. Only reason I can think of for leaving Barnes off is that his manager lost faith in him. Which I'd argue is more an issue with the manager than the player.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2017 12:28:37 GMT -5
Barnes had plenty of chances to solidify his spot. He didn't because of his propensity to walk batters. I don't blame the decision makers here. we cant just look at his recent performances and think that he was fixed. Again, Matt Barnes was the second most valuable Red Sox relief pitcher this season, not just recently. Joe Kelly gave up 7 walks in his last 12.1 innings. He also gave up 4.19 bb/9 as opposed to Matt Barnes 3.62 bb/9 or Doug Fister's 3.79 bb/9 over the course of the season. If your argument is that Barnes shouldn't be on the roster because he walks too many batters, then it doesn't hold water due to the presence of Fister and Kelly. If it's due to Barnes not pitching well in high leverage situations, the fWAR includes this, so it again doesn't fit. Only reason I can think of for leaving Barnes off is that his manager lost faith in him. Which I'd argue is more an issue with the manager than the player. Fister isn't on the roster because of his walk rate. He's there because he may start a game. And if he doesn't, he can come in and pitch multiple innings should Porcello pull a Severino. Kelly is fair to bring up though. He's a candidate for regression with his .252 BABIP and 4.07 xFIP. Barnes was .298 and 3.27. Yes, Joe Kelly makes me nervous.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2017 12:43:01 GMT -5
Maddox over Barnes basically ignores, like, six years of performance in exchange for about 45 batters. That's a straight new-toy pick. Ah well. Cool with Marrero making it, though. Going with Barnes over Maddox basically ignores that you don't know if Barnes is going to strike out the side or not throw more than 20% strikes.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2017 12:46:41 GMT -5
WEEI saying Fister in game 3. Solid decision. I'd take him over Porcello. I assume it'll be E-Rod in game 4, unless the RH power in the Houston lineup makes JF choose Porcello.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2017 12:49:32 GMT -5
Maddox over Barnes basically ignores, like, six years of performance in exchange for about 45 batters. That's a straight new-toy pick. Ah well. Cool with Marrero making it, though. Going with Barnes over Maddox basically ignores that you don't know if Barnes is going to strike out the side or not throw more than 20% strikes. The same is exactly true of Maddox - except for Barnes has almost always been better. Including the work both of them did the last four weeks of the season in low-leverage situations.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2017 12:52:05 GMT -5
WEEI saying Fister in game 3. Solid decision. I'd take him over Porcello. I assume it'll be E-Rod in game 4, unless the RH power in the Houston lineup makes JF choose Porcello. I was just thinking about Fister in Game 3 but for different reasons. This tells me that Game 4 goes to Porcello, only if the Sox are up 2 games to 1. If they're down 2 games to 1 they'll probably bring back Sale on short rest. If Porcello had started Game 3 and the Sox were down 2 games to 1 going into Game 4, then Sale starting Game 4 would render Fister's presence on the roster a moot point because the Sox wouldn't want to use Fister as a reliever. But with Fister starting Game 3, Sale can start Game 4 and the Sox don't mind using Porcello out of the pen if they need to.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2017 12:52:44 GMT -5
Going with Barnes over Maddox basically ignores that you don't know if Barnes is going to strike out the side or not throw more than 20% strikes. The same is exactly true of Maddox - except for Barnes has almost always been better. Including the work both of them did the last four weeks of the season in low-leverage situations. I have not once seen Maddox struggle with control for any game he has ever pitched in the majors. Not even for one batter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2017 12:58:52 GMT -5
I am surprised the Sox went with Maddox over Barnes. I get that Maddox has been extremely impressive but Barnes can give you longer stints. I'd think with Smith, Price, Reed, and Kimbrel for high leverage, Barnes would be valuable in those 2 or 3 inning stints, alongside with Kelly.
I figured if Workman didn't make it, it would be Barnes, so I'm really surprised the Sox went with Maddox, who was a lot more impressive than his minor league numbers would indicate, although I thought it was kind of fluky.
I guess Farrell must really like Xander in the leadoff spot. Can't say I blame him for that though, as he's been acting like a leadoff man lately. Surprised to see Pedroia dropped to #6 in the order but at this point he's almost as much a mystery at the plate as Nunez.
I'm fine with the decision to play Nunez over Hanley. A lot of people are waiting for his hot stretch but it hasn't come yet. He was never really hot for many than a few days at a time. We'll see him against Keuschel anyways, and if Nunez struggles then Hanley is their best option. At this point, he's really the only offensive threat of any kind that they have on their bench (other than Vazquez with Leon catches).
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2017 13:01:48 GMT -5
The same is exactly true of Maddox - except for Barnes has almost always been better. Including the work both of them did the last four weeks of the season in low-leverage situations. I have not once seen Maddox struggle with control for any game he has ever pitched in the majors. Not even for one batter. This is my point! He was only in the majors for 17 innings! If you rated Matt Barnes's control by his September, he'd have looked like such an obvious post-season roster carry that we wouldn't be having this discussion. But because Barnes was in the majors all year, any of his struggles were out in public while Maddox's were hidden in Pawtucket. Barnes had a much, much better walk rate than Maddox! Why would you only include major league time in your statistical evaluation when that major league time is 17 low-leverage innings? This all comes from Maddox pitching well for a couple weeks as the shiny new toy that no veteran reliever can possibly be.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 5, 2017 13:04:03 GMT -5
Maddox over Barnes basically ignores, like, six years of performance in exchange for about 45 batters. That's a straight new-toy pick. Ah well. Cool with Marrero making it, though. I see it as a Rolaids pick....Barnes for most of the season brought on acid indigestion (on the road particularly!)... I think Barnes has a great arm, great talent - and at this point, not yet polish or consistency.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2017 13:07:24 GMT -5
Maddox over Barnes basically ignores, like, six years of performance in exchange for about 45 batters. That's a straight new-toy pick. Ah well. Cool with Marrero making it, though. I see it as a Rolaids pick....Barnes for most of the season brought on acid indigestion (on the road particularly!)... I think Barnes has a great arm, great talent - and at this point, not yet polish or consistency. Maddox hasn't given you all indigestion yet because he wasn't there to pitch! He had a 12.9% walk rate across three levels. Barnes' walk rate was 9.8%! This is all feeding my "a person's favorite reliever is the one he has seen the least" crack. I think I've said my piece here so I will let it go. But man, people hate relievers who they have seen before. Go into the game day thread, and every time a reliever gives up a run, he should be demoted and/or released. And I understand at-the-time frustration, but that's the sort of thing management should be better than.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2017 13:12:06 GMT -5
Those who want to make the SSS argument against Maddox should turn their attention to C. Smith, who has pitched 8.4 innings the last two years and would not have as much ability to go multiple innings as Barnes. I assumed all along they'd keep have Smith on the roster but an argument for Barnes would be legitimate to make.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2017 13:13:05 GMT -5
I see it as a Rolaids pick....Barnes for most of the season brought on acid indigestion (on the road particularly!)... I think Barnes has a great arm, great talent - and at this point, not yet polish or consistency. Maddox hasn't given you all indigestion yet because he wasn't there to pitch! He had a 12.9% walk rate across three levels. Barnes' walk rate was 9.8%! This is all feeding my "a person's favorite reliever is the one he has seen the least" crack. I think I've said my piece here so I will let it go. But man, people hate relievers who they have seen before. Go into the game day thread, and every time a reliever gives up a run, he should be demoted and/or released. And I understand at-the-time frustration, but that's the sort of thing management should be better than. From everything that I have seen regarding Maddox, he has fixed his control problem. It would have showed up for a batter or two if it wasn't, even over 67 batters faced. Even his 2 walks were on close pitches and they were both 3-2 counts and they were in at bats where it wasn't the worst thing to walk the guy. Maybe he's the next Travis Shaw who is better in the majors than he was in the minors.
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2017 16:01:33 GMT -5
Those who want to make the SSS argument against Maddox should turn their attention to C. Smith, who has pitched 8.4 innings the last two years and would not have as much ability to go multiple innings as Barnes. I assumed all along they'd keep have Smith on the roster but an argument for Barnes would be legitimate to make. Smith was one of the best relievers in baseball before he got hurt, has both scouted really well and put up great numbers in his brief major league stint, and, as you mentioned, there is not really any other performance to evaluate from the last two years. Compare that to Maddox, where you have to significantly downplay a decent-sized sample of minor league performance from less than two months ago to make the case for him on the postseason roster. Also note that while Maddox's walk numbers have been good in the majors, his strikeout rate has been middling and he's been an extreme fly ball guy (consistent with his recent minor league track record). Not a big deal since those guys were competing for the last spot in the bullpen and would only be used in the lowest-leverage situations, but I would have picked Barnes.
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