Playoff roster projection thread

Care to explain why you think that or are you satisfied just being snarky? Is it because Price is too valuable a weapon out of the pen? Because you don't see any possible way that he won't be needed in 1, 2, or 4? Because he won't be stretched out enough to throw 60 pitches? Or because you're comfortable with Fister and/or Porcello pitching to that fearsome lineup? 

Any one of those would be a reasonable answer if backed up by some actual thought. (Ok, maybe the last one wouldn't be reasonable. Nobody would feel good about Porcello or Fister pitching to that fearsome lineup, since 1.) neither is very good and 2.) the 'Stros just saw the Fist.)

The 'Stros put up a team OPS-plus of 129, not counting pitchers. That's the same as the '76 Reds. It means their hitters perform on average at a HOF level.

I think there are three roster spots still up for grabs, the last two pitchers and the last man on the bench.

Brandon Workman, once the 7th inning guy and a lock, is no sure thing. This is ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- ...

19, 65, 89 July 15 to August 21
105, 117, 84 August 24 to September 5
132, 197, 86 September 10 on

His peripherals have remained constant but he's been hit harder and harder. Now, they have medical knowledge of his shoulder strength etc., and they may decide he's ready to bounce back to his earlier form. But he may also be gassed.

I think if he's out, then Matt Barnes is the 10th guy and they'll take all five starters, giving them a long man option if anyone gets shelled early, especially in game 3 when they're playing the next day. But if they think Workman will bounce back, it's a somewhat tricky decision which will also depend on who the 3rd and 4th starters will be.

Leon, Nunez (at the very least DH vs. Keuchel), Holt (solid Pedroia insurance, 4th OFer), and Davis (pinch-runner) are the first four bench guys. The last man is between Deven Marrero, Blake Swihart, Sam Travis, and Chris Young.

Swihart's an interesting choice, because it would allow them to confidently bring in Vazquez to catch, after Sale and Fister exit the game (assuming Leon continues to catch Fister after doing so for 8 straight starts). He could also be a second pinch-runner on days when Vazquez catches. That'll include game 2, and if Kuechel starts as expected, Hanley will probably be at 1B and Nunez will DH with bad wheels. Pedroia is another guy they're likely to pinch-run for in key situations.

(Frankly, the odds of a catcher injury mid-game are so tiny that I'd do this even with just two catchers on the roster. That would be beautifully bold.)

Marrero wouldn't surprise me at all, and would be my choice. Keuchel's been death on LHB his whole career and even more so this year, so he could start at 3B against him, and of course he'd be a useful defensive sub and second pinch-runner.

It's hard to see a role for Travis if Hanley is going to start at 1B against Keuchel. The Astros will likely have only Liriano as a LHR in the bullpen and Moreland is the only LHB we'd pinch hit for -- and you'd use Nunez as a PH first.

I listed Young only to be thorough, even though he's hit Kuechel fairly well in his career (27 PA, .280 / .333 / .440). He doesn't seem to be that guy any more, and he has to be the 6th OFer now, after a Holt / Davis platoon. There may be a marginal upgrade over Davis vs. LHP (or maybe not), but you'd never use a roster spot on that versus for Marrero or Swihart.

Smith will be on the roster, he just had a bad game. It happens.

Of course it is. It gives you a 95% confidence interval that he's not awful and useless against them. It's not like sending a pitcher up there and it's probably not like sending up your typical replacement-level backup SS, either.

He's hit HRs with exit velocities in the 103 to 106 mph range and he hit one out c. 406' feet to right center. He's not someone an opposing LHP can afford to treat like an automatic out.

I wish Leon would get hit bat back. He is gonna catch Sale and if Fister pitches he likes Leon too. Fister looked good vs Houston and Cleveland. I forgot we haven’t had Nunez the extra rest is good for him. I like the replacement for Devers late in game. It’s too bad but he is only 20 played a lot of baseball this year. He made some good plays at 3b also. I love the kid. Price looks real good.

I all set with Barnes, Hembree, Kelly. Abad. I can’t wait for playoffs and the Sox are under the radar. Yankees will beat the Twins and maybe upset the Indians.

We are familiar with Verlander should be a great series.

This is the Statistically Correct fallacy that might be called You Must Use All the Data or Players Never Change.

Over the previous three seasons (starting the year he was promoted to AAA mid-season, so it's nearly all of his high-minors experience), Marrero had made contact vs. LHP 295 times and had hit precisely 2 HR. This year, between AAA and MLB, it's 69 times with 5 HR. That's .007 HR/C to .072, otherwise known as being more than ten time as good. Even without adjusting for the very large difference between MLB and ml pitching, the odds of that being random are 302 to 1 (p = .0033, Fisher's Exact Test). It's an enormously significant improvement.

He was completely incapable of jumping on a pitch and hitting it out before this year. Even against minor league pitching! That's a little odd, isn't it? Citing his previous lousiness is actually arguing the wrong side of the case.

Here's your June 5 take on him as a hitter:

Since you posted that, he's had 43 PA vs. LHP in MLB and has a 93 wRC+ (.263 / .326 / .421). It's not BABIP inflated at all, and in fact the opposite might be true -- .310 BABIP with a .367 Hard and .367 LD.

(Overall, he has a 70 wRC+ in 104 PA since that assessment, with a 52 wRC+ vs. RHP.)

My projection (also what I'd do):

SP (5): Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Rodriguez, Porcello.*

RP (6): Kimbrel, Reed, Smith, Price, Kelly, Barnes

Starters (9): Vazquez, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Beintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ramirez

Bench (5): Leon, Nunez, Holt, Marrero, Davis

Workman over Barnes wouldn't be a great surprise.

*Who you regard as your 3rd starter versus 4th starter in a 5-game series barely matters. Neither guy is pitching twice.

Unless you're down 2-0, you don't need the better overall starter in game 3 -- you want the starter that is less likely to be knocked out very early, thus taxing the bullpen for game 4. If you are down 2-0, then you're likely to go to the bullpen even earlier, no matter which guy is pitching, and if you need to, then you have to hope the other guy goes at least 5 strong in game 4. This is the reason I want to save Pomeranz for game 3 and use the risky guys in games 2 and 4.

But here's the comparison anyway:

In Fister's 11 starts since he got the rust off, he got hit hard early 3 times, plus got BABIP'd to death once. But E-Rod has a similar track record -- there's his last start, his August 26 start where he gave up 5 to the O's in the second inning, then settled down, the previous start in Cleveland where he lost it in the 2nd (Bruce rocket 1B to deep right, Santana loud out to deep CF, Bruce BB ... you might pull him at that point in a playoff game, and in fact Perez went yard next, and that was the game), and the previous game against the Cardinals where a similar thing happened in the second.

So E-Rod had 2nd inning problems 3 starts in a row, was fine through at least 5 IP for 5 starts, then was hit hard early last time out. Fister's rough starts were in games 3, 8, and 9, of his last 11. It's kind of a toss-up, so I'd go with Fister as the veteran with a nice post-season record, over the youngster who just struggled uncharacteristically in a high-pressure start.

He is slated for Game 3? I would think he'd start Game 2. I wouldn't see why not. Game 2 is on Friday and he'd have 5 days of rest.

And no I don't think you can change your roster midway through the series.

I'd go with Maddox over both Barnes and Workman and I think he's earned it. He has only given up one run the whole season up here, plus he can go multiple innings if need be.

You are assuming that in the League Championship Series the Red Sox are going to use 5 starters. I doubt that happens. While I am too lazy to do the research, I believe most teams use only 4 starters during the playoffs and a few would only use 3 starters (using short rest). Plus, if there are games postponed by bad weather, (a not uncommon occupancy in October) you can get by with fewer starters. If the Red Sox are down 3-1, I do not want to lose the next game using my 5th starter. As for using Pomeranz in game 3, I believe I have heard that this year Porcello has pitched much better on the road and therefore you MIGHT want him to pitch games 2 and 6 on the road rather than game 3 at home (assuming you think Porcello should pitch at all in the series which is not a sure thing given his performance this year). But generally, I think pitch your best pitchers as early as possible so you can get as many innings from them in the series as is possible. Using only 4 starters also allows you to carry an extra relief pitcher which might be advantageous if the Red Sox plan to use the bullpen as heavily as you suggest.

I think Barnes makes it though.