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Playoff roster projection thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 21, 2017 22:50:15 GMT -5
Eduardo Nunez suffered a minor setback according to 98.5 yesterday. He was supposed to do running drills but the Sox backed off that.
Hopefully he can comeback before the season ends.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2017 17:04:07 GMT -5
The Red Sox have had the second most effective offense in MLB, in terms of runs scored relative to their wOBA. In contrast, the Dodgers are 29th.
Is this good, or bad, in terms of postseason expectations? That's a great question. I'm not sure I'll have the time to look into it properly, but in the past, being inefficient had no negative predictive value. The 2004 Sox were inefficient. The thought is that inefficiency mostly = poor clutch performance, which has no predictive value, and yet you were good enough to make the postseason anyway. However, the part of efficiency that isn't random, which is to say good baserunning, may play better in the post-season than hitting.
Here are the numbers for all of the contenders. You can see that 8 of the top 9 most efficient offenses are still in the playoff hunt (the exception is the Giants, who are last in wOBA and next-to-last in scoring), but almost none of the offenses with average efficiency are (only 2 of the 11 with 0.99 to 1.01, the Cubs and Indians).
Efficiency is the ratio of actual scoring to that predicted by the regression of scoring on wOBA.
Tm wOBA R/27 Eff Rnk TEX .324 5.17 1.075 1 BOS .318 4.80 1.044 2 LAA .308 4.43 1.041 3 NYY .335 5.40 1.040 4 WSN .331 5.21 1.031 5 MIN .328 5.07 1.025 7 COL .330 5.14 1.025 8 ARI .327 5.02 1.022 9 CHC .333 5.15 1.005 11 CLE .337 5.18 .985 19 HOU .348 5.53 .981 21 STL .328 4.82 .975 24 MIL .322 4.61 .973 25 LAD .329 4.82 .967 29 The startling thing here is that the Dodgers rank 11th in RS/27 and we rank 12th, but they rank 7th in wOBA and we rank 20th. It will be interesting to see how that plays in the postseason.
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Post by jchang on Sept 22, 2017 20:01:14 GMT -5
I am hoping that Price will be ready to take the fourth SP spot, otherwise it will be between Porcello and Fister
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 22, 2017 21:34:52 GMT -5
I am hoping that Price will be ready to take the fourth SP spot, otherwise it will be between Porcello and Fister I wonder if rotation will have a lot to do with opponent. Some opponents (someone who follows other teams can tell us which) may be really rough to start four lefties against. The extension of that is if a team sits/saves a LHH because of all the Sox LH SPs, then we're back to still not having great lefties in the pen. I'd worry about back to back days with Price, but if that isn't an issue, it may slot things easier if he's a RP.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2017 2:24:40 GMT -5
I want this to be the year of the pen and the Sox have the horses to make it happen. Price in the pen works for me. This entire pen is perfect to get a lead and then go to the relievers. We'd have Price, Kelly and Barnes for long relief should it be needed.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2017 2:27:48 GMT -5
I am hoping that Price will be ready to take the fourth SP spot, otherwise it will be between Porcello and Fister I wonder if rotation will have a lot to do with opponent. Some opponents (someone who follows other teams can tell us which) may be really rough to start four lefties against. The extension of that is if a team sits/saves a LHH because of all the Sox LH SPs, then we're back to still not having great lefties in the pen. I'd worry about back to back days with Price, but if that isn't an issue, it may slot things easier if he's a RP. The stros are a righty dominant lineup.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 23, 2017 3:11:10 GMT -5
Yeah I've flipped like ten times during the time this thread started but it should go
Sale Pomeranz Eduardo Rodriguez
At least for the first three games. Yeah that's a lot of lefties to start against the Astros who are right handed dominant but Eduardo's changeup is really effective against RHB and so is Pomeranz' curveball and cutter. It's probably a good reason why they do better against RHB than LHB.
I don't know who's starting game 4. My guess is that it will be Porcello but who knows at this point. I'd still take my chances with Eduardo over Porcello. Eduardo is on a terrific stretch recently just like he was before he got injured. His knee is feeling 100 percent months after the injury and he has said as much about it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2017 4:31:34 GMT -5
I'd rather go:
Sale Porcello Pomeranz ERod
against the Astros because Porcello seems to have more problems in Fenway.
We have 3 guys capable of long relief, Price, Kelly and Barnes. I expect this to be Boston's bullpen year.
In that scenario, if you split in Houston, you not only have taken the home field advantage but you have your two best starters lined up for the three remaining games.
Ideally it'll be 4 and done so that you can start the Cleveland (assumed) series with Sale and Pomeranz rather than Sale and Porcello.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 23, 2017 4:41:51 GMT -5
I'd rather go: Sale Porcello Pomeranz ERod against the Astros because Porcello seems to have more problems in Fenway. We have 3 guys capable of long relief, Price, Kelly and Barnes. I expect this to be Boston's bullpen year. Porcello tends to get hit anywhere. You have to just put your best three starters in a row and let the chips fall where they land. I fully expect the quick hook in any of Porcello's starts and maybe even in Eduardo's starts too. This will be the year of the bullpen and the dynamic duo of Pomeranz and Sale. Hopefully they can just score enough this postseason.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2017 4:44:35 GMT -5
I'd rather go: Sale Porcello Pomeranz ERod against the Astros because Porcello seems to have more problems in Fenway. We have 3 guys capable of long relief, Price, Kelly and Barnes. I expect this to be Boston's bullpen year. Porcello tends to get hit anywhere. You have to just put your best three starters in a row and let the chips fall where they land. I fully expect the quick hook in any of Porcello's starts and maybe even in Eduardo's starts too. This will be the year of the bullpen and the dynamic duo of Pomeranz and Sale. Hopefully they can just score enough this postseason. In a five game series, only the first starter is likely to get two starts, the order becomes less important than a 7 game series.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2017 4:52:41 GMT -5
In any event, this should be an epic post season because if Harper is healthy you could easily make a case for any of the six division winners to go all the way.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 23, 2017 5:18:14 GMT -5
Porcello tends to get hit anywhere. You have to just put your best three starters in a row and let the chips fall where they land. I fully expect the quick hook in any of Porcello's starts and maybe even in Eduardo's starts too. This will be the year of the bullpen and the dynamic duo of Pomeranz and Sale. Hopefully they can just score enough this postseason. In a five game series, only the first starter is likely to get two starts, the order becomes less important than a 7 game series. Well theoretically, the game 2 starter can pitch in 2 different games. There is usually a travel day between games 2 and 3 and games 4 and 5. If you're down 2-1 in a 5 game series, you could pitch your number one starter in game 4 and your game 2 starter in game 5. This is what the Sox were going to do with Porcello last year in game 4 before they got swept by Cleveland. So it's important to line up your best 2 starters in order for a 5 game series.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2017 10:23:55 GMT -5
In a five game series, only the first starter is likely to get two starts, the order becomes less important than a 7 game series. Well theoretically, the game 2 starter can pitch in 2 different games. There is usually a travel day between games 2 and 3 and games 4 and 5. If you're down 2-1 in a 5 game series, you could pitch your number one starter in game 4 and your game 2 starter in game 5. This is what the Sox where going to do with Porcello last year in game 4 before they got swept by Cleveland. So it's important to line up your best 2 starters in order for a 5 game series. Under that scenario, the game 2 starter would be the game 5 starter, both away games. Now you have to factor in the probability for each pitcher (one L, one R) and that particular park's park factors and that particular lineup. Too complex for me but Pomeranz xFIP splits are H/3.73 A/4.42 and Porcello H/4.36 A/4.55. So, Porcello away has been close to Pomeranz away but Pomeranz at home has been where the difference between them has shown up. I'm guessing the team essentially does a simulation style analysis where they look at the probabilities for each series based on the goal of collecting all the marbles in the end. That factors in because under the scenario you laid out, the worst case scenario, they're probably screwed anyhow having to go to Cleveland with their two best pitchers having been used in the two previous games. Do you plan for best case or worst case ? It's a probability model study.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2017 11:18:43 GMT -5
At the end of this series, all three of the candidates for the 3rd and 4th rotation spots will have pitched and will have one start left. And that start might be meaningless (least likely for Porcello, most likely for Fister) and hence a tune-up. So I'll run a bunch of numbers Sunday evening.
But here's a quick overview using FanGraph's V2 of Game Score ...
Porcello was 53 +/- 7 in his first 7 starts after the ASB, and is 41 +/- 27 in his 6 following starts.
E-Rod is 52 +/- 15 since the AAB, with no trend at all.
Porcello and E-Rod seem to have the same upside, but E-Rod has much less downside.
Fister averaged 66 for 7 starts, then 25.5 for 2. That's too soon to be declared a trend, so we'll call it the overall 57 +/- 24.
Any kind of good Fister start Sunday has to put him ahead of Porcello.
Note that Price is likely to be stretched out to 5 innings or close to it by then, and remains a starting option. One of these three guys has to look attractive as a 3rd starter (or we're screwed), but if the next-best guy wins the 4th spot by default, you can keep the option of starting Price in that game and having the pen take it over, if he hasn't already pitched in the first three games. And if you do that, then he's stretched out further and can go into the rotation if they advance.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2017 15:44:54 GMT -5
Well theoretically, the game 2 starter can pitch in 2 different games. There is usually a travel day between games 2 and 3 and games 4 and 5. If you're down 2-1 in a 5 game series, you could pitch your number one starter in game 4 and your game 2 starter in game 5. This is what the Sox where going to do with Porcello last year in game 4 before they got swept by Cleveland. So it's important to line up your best 2 starters in order for a 5 game series. Under that scenario, the game 2 starter would be the game 5 starter, both away games. Now you have to factor in the probability for each pitcher (one L, one R) and that particular park's park factors and that particular lineup. Too complex for me but Pomeranz xFIP splits are H/3.73 A/4.42 and Porcello H/4.36 A/4.55. So, Porcello away has been close to Pomeranz away but Pomeranz at home has been where the difference between them has shown up. I'm guessing the team essentially does a simulation style analysis where they look at the probabilities for each series based on the goal of collecting all the marbles in the end. That factors in because under the scenario you laid out, the worst case scenario, they're probably screwed anyhow having to go to Cleveland with their two best pitchers having been used in the two previous games. Do you plan for best case or worst case ? It's a probability model study. I'm guessing that the team is trying to win the most games early in the series and not worrying as much about game 5 as they are game 2. Also, it would be a very good strategy IMO to pair Price with Porcello as piggyback starters.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 24, 2017 0:52:44 GMT -5
Under that scenario, the game 2 starter would be the game 5 starter, both away games. Now you have to factor in the probability for each pitcher (one L, one R) and that particular park's park factors and that particular lineup. Too complex for me but Pomeranz xFIP splits are H/3.73 A/4.42 and Porcello H/4.36 A/4.55. So, Porcello away has been close to Pomeranz away but Pomeranz at home has been where the difference between them has shown up. I'm guessing the team essentially does a simulation style analysis where they look at the probabilities for each series based on the goal of collecting all the marbles in the end. That factors in because under the scenario you laid out, the worst case scenario, they're probably screwed anyhow having to go to Cleveland with their two best pitchers having been used in the two previous games. Do you plan for best case or worst case ? It's a probability model study. I'm guessing that the team is trying to win the most games early in the series and not worrying as much about game 5 as they are game 2. Also, it would be a very good strategy IMO to pair Price with Porcello as piggyback starters. You always plan for worst case scenario and hope for the best. I don't disagree with Porcello being followed by Price however.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 24, 2017 7:40:56 GMT -5
I think it was Peter Abraham who just said that the choice between Young and Travis for the last spot on the bench would be neither. This is an interesting thought.
The sole LHP in the Astros rotation is Dallas Keuchel. He's tough on LHB, so you'll want to sit Moreland. You might also sit Devers, although he has massive reverse splits in his SSS, or Benintendi, who hasn't hit LHP overall in his career (846 vs 599) but of course has massive defensive value over Young. Rajai Davis is 0/17 against him.
So the likely lineup would be Hanley at 1B and Nunez at DH. You don't see them starting Young in LF (unless he does some serious lefty-killing in the last 8 games), so the only other option would be Travis at 1B and Nunez at 3B. It's not clear at all that that's a better lineup, but maybe deeper metrics say it is.
The lone LOOGY in the Astros bullpen will be Francisco Liriano, whom they got from the Jays at the deadline. He's been below replacement level for them, but largely because he hasn't gotten RHB out at all. He's been used more carefully the last few weeks and has solid numbers vs. LHB.
The thing is, he's just as likely, or more likely to be used against Benintendi than against Moreland. There's no guarantee that Nunez will come back so strongly that he'll force himself into the lineup, especially given that Devers has turned it back on, and Hanley and Moreland look like they've just done so as well. So Nunez might be on the bench as a PH, if they do use Liriano versus Moreland.
Now, if they do carry an extra player in that spot, Marrero might be more useful, just as a defensive sub for Devers.
So it looks like we have 13 position players settled (the starters plus Leon, Nunez, Holt, and Davis) plus 3 SP and 6 RP (Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Smith, Workman, and Kelly).
The 23rd guy will be either Fister or Porcello.
The 24th guy will be either Barnes or the loser of that battle.
The 25th guy will either be Travis, Marrero, or (longshot) Young, or (maybe just as likely) they'll take all three pitchers.
As I noted earlier, Robby Scott's entire role would be to pitch to Josh Reddick, who will be dropped down in the order vs. our LHS and will probably sit in favor of Jake Marisnick vs. Pomeranz. I just don't see him as a likely option.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2017 8:15:45 GMT -5
I think E-Rod's recent performance, coupled with the fact that when he's been healthy E-Rod has been the 3rd best starter they have, makes me think that E-Rod has made the rotation and that the battle is between Porcello and Fister and that Porcello is more likely to provide innings and be less likely to be boom or bust - does Fister ever throw 6 innings with 3 runs? It's either a masterpiece or a disaster. I think that gives Porcello the advantage.
So I think with E-Rod in the rotation, that gives Scott a spot in the pen.
I think they use 11 pitchers: Sale, Pomeranz, E-Rod, and Porcello to start, Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Smith, Workman, Kelly, and Scott in the bullpen.
They'll apparently use Nunez to DH (although if he were to be healthy, why not let him play 3b and DH Devers?), have Vazquez catch, an infield of Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Devers, and an outfield of Benintendi, Bradley, Betts.
That means 5 subs, Leon, Ramirez, Davis, Marreo, because it sounds like they are intent on having Marrero late inning defensive sub for Devers at 3b, so then it would come to Holt vs Young. Since they've both been pretty useless this season, I'd prefer Holt over Young because he's a lefty stick and can play everywhere (albeit with mediocrity), and I'm starting to wonder/think if the Red Sox are leaning that way, too given Holt's playing time and Young's lack of playing time.
It was interesting that yesterday Farrell went to Young over Davis, so I'm still not convinced that Farrell leaves off Young, but at the moment I think Young just might be the odd man out. Unless Nunez is unable to play perhaps Young doesn't make the cut.
The one thing this roster lacks (besides a 40 HR hitter?) is a LH PH option off the bench. I thought Daniel Nava would have been a great pickup for this. Instead they got the pinch runner Davis instead, which I get, but there are going to be times when a tough righty is in, and the Sox have no PH options - well other than Hanley Ramirez or whoever is odd man (regular) out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 24, 2017 10:16:17 GMT -5
I think E-Rod's recent performance, coupled with the fact that when he's been healthy E-Rod has been the 3rd best starter they have, makes me think that E-Rod has made the rotation and that the battle is between Porcello and Fister and that Porcello is more likely to provide innings and be less likely to be boom or bust - does Fister ever throw 6 innings with 3 runs? It's either a masterpiece or a disaster. I think that gives Porcello the advantage. So I think with E-Rod in the rotation, that gives Scott a spot in the pen. I think they use 11 pitchers: Sale, Pomeranz, E-Rod, and Porcello to start, Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Smith, Workman, Kelly, and Scott in the bullpen. They'll apparently use Nunez to DH (although if he were to be healthy, why not let him play 3b and DH Devers?), have Vazquez catch, an infield of Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Devers, and an outfield of Benintendi, Bradley, Betts. That means 5 subs, Leon, Ramirez, Davis, Marreo, because it sounds like they are intent on having Marrero late inning defensive sub for Devers at 3b, so then it would come to Holt vs Young. Since they've both been pretty useless this season, I'd prefer Holt over Young because he's a lefty stick and can play everywhere (albeit with mediocrity), and I'm starting to wonder/think if the Red Sox are leaning that way, too given Holt's playing time and Young's lack of playing time. It was interesting that yesterday Farrell went to Young over Davis, so I'm still not convinced that Farrell leaves off Young, but at the moment I think Young just might be the odd man out. Unless Nunez is unable to play perhaps Young doesn't make the cut. The one thing this roster lacks (besides a 40 HR hitter?) is a LH PH option off the bench. I thought Daniel Nava would have been a great pickup for this. Instead they got the pinch runner Davis instead, which I get, but there are going to be times when a tough righty is in, and the Sox have no PH options - well other than Hanley Ramirez or whoever is odd man (regular) out. Do you even read other people's posts? The Astros only have two lefty hitters in their lineup, and one, McCann, doesn't struggle against LHP. The only reason you'd ever think about using Robby Scott in this series is to face Josh Reddick, and only if he's due to lead off the 7th (maybe the 6th). And in fact you wouldn't do it, because they have a great pinch hitter in Evan Gattis (1043 OPS in a career 51 PH). Every single one of our RHR versus Reddick is a better matchup than Scott vs. Gattis, which is in fact a catastrophically bad matchup. Robby Scott can be a great weapon against a LHB who is so good that they won't pinch-hit for him -- an elite, Papi-type hitter. The Astros don't have a guy like that. Nor do they ever have a stretch in the order where Scott can face two LHB. Oh, and as I pointed out, Porcello as of late has been even more inconsistent than Fister.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 24, 2017 10:16:26 GMT -5
I'm scared they're going to waste a roster spot on Holt.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2017 10:37:40 GMT -5
I think E-Rod's recent performance, coupled with the fact that when he's been healthy E-Rod has been the 3rd best starter they have, makes me think that E-Rod has made the rotation and that the battle is between Porcello and Fister and that Porcello is more likely to provide innings and be less likely to be boom or bust - does Fister ever throw 6 innings with 3 runs? It's either a masterpiece or a disaster. I think that gives Porcello the advantage. So I think with E-Rod in the rotation, that gives Scott a spot in the pen. I think they use 11 pitchers: Sale, Pomeranz, E-Rod, and Porcello to start, Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Smith, Workman, Kelly, and Scott in the bullpen. They'll apparently use Nunez to DH (although if he were to be healthy, why not let him play 3b and DH Devers?), have Vazquez catch, an infield of Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Devers, and an outfield of Benintendi, Bradley, Betts. That means 5 subs, Leon, Ramirez, Davis, Marreo, because it sounds like they are intent on having Marrero late inning defensive sub for Devers at 3b, so then it would come to Holt vs Young. Since they've both been pretty useless this season, I'd prefer Holt over Young because he's a lefty stick and can play everywhere (albeit with mediocrity), and I'm starting to wonder/think if the Red Sox are leaning that way, too given Holt's playing time and Young's lack of playing time. It was interesting that yesterday Farrell went to Young over Davis, so I'm still not convinced that Farrell leaves off Young, but at the moment I think Young just might be the odd man out. Unless Nunez is unable to play perhaps Young doesn't make the cut. The one thing this roster lacks (besides a 40 HR hitter?) is a LH PH option off the bench. I thought Daniel Nava would have been a great pickup for this. Instead they got the pinch runner Davis instead, which I get, but there are going to be times when a tough righty is in, and the Sox have no PH options - well other than Hanley Ramirez or whoever is odd man (regular) out. Do you even read other people's posts? The Astros only have two lefty hitters in their lineup, and one, McCann, doesn't struggle against LHP. The only reason you'd ever think about using Robby Scott in this series is to face Josh Reddick, and only if he's due to lead off the 7th (maybe the 6th). And in fact you wouldn't do it, because they have a great pinch hitter in Evan Gattis (1043 OPS in a career 51 PH). Every single one of our RHR versus Reddick is a better matchup than Scott vs. Gattis, which is in fact a catastrophically bad matchup. Robby Scott can be a great weapon against a LHB who is so good that they won't pinch-hit for him -- an elite, Papi-type hitter. The Astros don't have a guy like that. Nor do they ever have a stretch in the order where Scott can face two LHB. Oh, and as I pointed out, Porcello as of late has been even more inconsistent than Fister. What is your deal Eric? You really, really need to chill. I'm posting what I THINK the Red Sox will do, not what they SHOULD do. What do other people's posts have to do with that? I really don't understand your response. You act like this is groupthink and that because it's so obvious to you, the Red Sox will do exactly as you say as if you still work for them, which you don't. I suspect Farrell would want Scott exactly for Reddick and whether Reddick gets pinch-hit for or not (and I suspect he wouldn't particularly in the 5th or 6th inning), Farrell has used Scott a number of times for the lefties that get pinch-hit for, and I cringe every time he does, so it's not that hard to come to a conclusion that there's a reasonable possibility that Farrell would want Scott on his roster, and he has more input on the roster than you do, so take a deep breath and anticipate that the roster is most likely not going to come out the way you (or I) would prefer. I'm totally cool if they leave a LOOGY off the roster, but I suspect that Farrell wants two lefties and with E-Rod looking like a better bet for the rotation that would open the door wider for Scott, although I'd be perfectly fine with Maddox.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 24, 2017 21:11:23 GMT -5
Taking a shot at the playoff 25 with two home series remaining (so of course this can change) - but as of today -
SP Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello (4) Pen Fister, Kimbrel, Reed, Workman, Price, Kelly, Barnes, Smith (8) (I'd prefer Maddox instead of Barnes but don't think it will go that way)
Vazquez, Leon (2) Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Bogaerts, Nunez, Holt (I would prefer Marrero though) (6) Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Davis (for his speed) (4) Ramirez (1)
That leaves Maddox, Hembree, Abad, Scott, Boyer, Elias and Velazquez off for pitchers Swihart, Marrero, Travis, Lin and Young off for field players
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2017 0:46:01 GMT -5
Do you even read other people's posts? The Astros only have two lefty hitters in their lineup, and one, McCann, doesn't struggle against LHP. The only reason you'd ever think about using Robby Scott in this series is to face Josh Reddick, and only if he's due to lead off the 7th (maybe the 6th). And in fact you wouldn't do it, because they have a great pinch hitter in Evan Gattis (1043 OPS in a career 51 PH). Every single one of our RHR versus Reddick is a better matchup than Scott vs. Gattis, which is in fact a catastrophically bad matchup. Robby Scott can be a great weapon against a LHB who is so good that they won't pinch-hit for him -- an elite, Papi-type hitter. The Astros don't have a guy like that. Nor do they ever have a stretch in the order where Scott can face two LHB. Oh, and as I pointed out, Porcello as of late has been even more inconsistent than Fister. What is your deal Eric? You really, really need to chill. I'm posting what I THINK the Red Sox will do, not what they SHOULD do. What do other people's posts have to do with that? I really don't understand your response. You act like this is groupthink and that because it's so obvious to you, the Red Sox will do exactly as you say as if you still work for them, which you don't. I suspect Farrell would want Scott exactly for Reddick and whether Reddick gets pinch-hit for or not (and I suspect he wouldn't particularly in the 5th or 6th inning), Farrell has used Scott a number of times for the lefties that get pinch-hit for, and I cringe every time he does, so it's not that hard to come to a conclusion that there's a reasonable possibility that Farrell would want Scott on his roster, and he has more input on the roster than you do, so take a deep breath and anticipate that the roster is most likely not going to come out the way you (or I) would prefer. I'm totally cool if they leave a LOOGY off the roster, but I suspect that Farrell wants two lefties and with E-Rod looking like a better bet for the rotation that would open the door wider for Scott, although I'd be perfectly fine with Maddox. Because this is a conversation, not a monologue. Your explanation for why you think Scott will be on the roster is actually not just perfectly valid, but really interesting. (Now that you've given it!) For the most part I share your sense of JF's cluelessness, but the one thing he has improved dramatically this year is in bullpen management. That's why I think they get the bullpen roster right. (I already think they screwed the position player roster up by not giving Brentz a shot. That's because JF valued the clubhouse support of Young over getting a talent upgrade.) The thing is, though, you left out that explanation. Nobody actually cares about anybody's counter-to-consensus opinions if they are unsupported by argument. Imagine this were a political board and the thread topic was the tough state of the Republican party, and someone had posted an analysis arguing that they don't have enough votes to pass the latest Obamacare repeal. You post your own state-of-the-party rundown and you include the fact that you believe they will get it passed. Without an explanation, it completely sounds as if you're talking to yourself, and it's completely uninteresting, and actually frustrating to the people hoping to engage in a discussion of that. If you cite the fact that McCain has sometimes flip-flopped and you think that home-state pressure will have him flip-flop again, or whatever your rationale is, that's exactly the sort of response prior posters are looking for. Groupthink is boring, but people just stating their opinions without reasons for them is even more boring. I could tell you that The Frisco Kid (Gene Wilder and Harrison Ford) is my favorite comedy of all time (which is true), and on the surface that's such a wack-job opinion that it's pretty worthless without an explanation for why this could be the case. When you're aware that your opinions run counter to others, say why, and that turns what seems like a myopic, blinkered answer into a provocative one. On topic, we have 12 relievers with a positive WPA, excluding Velazquez: Kimbrel, Kelly, Reed, Boyer, Barnes, Abad, Scott, Maddox, Smith, Price, Hembree, and Workman. The Astros have four: Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, and Joe Musgrove. They'll include Liriano who can still get lefties out, but it seems like their best options for the 10th and 11th spot on their staff will be their 5th and 6th starters, Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. Who have almost zero MLB relief experience. And McCullers has a history of first-inning and first-25 pitch struggles, as does Collin McHugh, the likely 4th starter (and that may not be decided yet). The next actual relief option would be Luke Gregerson, who's been awful and no longer gets high-leverage innings.
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Post by jmei on Sept 26, 2017 11:16:39 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 26, 2017 11:29:29 GMT -5
As he says though, a better analysis would've looked at the players' splits. The point of this for me is more that there's no David Ortiz for which you specifically bother carrying Mike Myers, to use the old example. And I think it does show that. But it doesn't really do enough to get to what we've been looking at more analytically regarding the Astros in the LDS, in that they don't even really have left-handed hitters, period, for which it's worth giving the nod to the LHRP if it's close. For me, in an LCS against the Indians, say, it is probably worth having Scott on the roster for guys like Kipnis and Bruce, who have heavy splits.
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