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Playoff roster projection thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 12:47:42 GMT -5
Didn't want to make this thread too early, but I think the Sox are at least a lock for the playoffs whether it's the wild card or division. I wanted to hear what people thought who should be on it.
First rotation- Sale Pomeranz Fister Rodriguez or Porcello
Bullpen- Kimbrel Reed Workman Robbie Scott Joe Kelly Price or Rodriguez/Porcello Austin Maddox
Lineup vs RHP Eduardo Nunez SS Benintendi LF Mookie RF Moreland 1B Pedrioa 2B Devers 3B Hanley DH Vazquez C JBJ CF
Lineup vs LHP Eduardo Nunez 2B/DH Benintendi LF Betts RF Pedrioa 2B/DH Devers 3B Hanley or Sam Travis 1B Vazquez or Leon C Xander SS JBJ CF
Bench- Sam Travis Leon Rajai Davis Holt (I guess)
-I think the Sox should go with Eduardo Rodriguez over Porcello in the playoff rotation. Rodriguez missed some time but he has been a half run better ERA wise. Depends how they finish their last three to four starts, I'm sure though. Porcello to me is a liability this year with the homeruns especially. I don't think I would trust him to keep a good hitting lineup in the playoffs in the ballpark.
-I am benching Xander Bogaerts, unless it's against LHP. I'm starting Eduardo Nunez at SS regularly. I was thinking about who Eduardo Nunez should replace in the lineup come playoff time, and Xander has to be it. I think Xander the worst OPS on the team among starting players this year. He hasn't been hitting since injuring his hand and he has been a terrible second half hitter. Both players are bad defensive players, so the only thing you're gaining is offense with Nunez over Xander.
-I personally think Austin Maddox is earning himself a playoff spot on the roster over Hembree and Barnes with the way he is throwing the ball lately.
-Sam Travis should get a playoff spot over Chris Young. At this point Sam Travis is a more versatile player than Young surprisingly because he can actually play one position on the field capably in 1B. I think there's even a debate that Sam Travis should start at 1B over Hanley in the playoffs too (against LHP). He's a better defender there over Hanley and Travis has hit LHP both in AAA and in the majors.
-Rajai Davis is your burner off the bench when you need a stolen bag.
-Holt is literally your 25th man off the bench if someone gets hurt in the middle of a playoff game. Outside of that he shouldn't see any time in the playoffs unless you need a second pinch running option and you already used Davis in a game.
-Hopefully Price is healthy come playoff time. The Sox could use him as a second lefty out of the bullpen or a guy that can piggy back a starter that has a really short outing due to ineffectiveness. If not, then Porcello or Rodriguez can fill in this role.
Thoughts on all of this?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2017 13:25:34 GMT -5
Sometimes who you think should and who actually is on the roster can be two different things.
I think the rotation winds up Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, and Porcello (although there's a growing part of me that prefers E-Rod(.
I think the pen winds up: Kimbrel, Reed, Price (I actually like him there this season), Workman, and the last 3 I think wind up being E-Rod (in the 2013 Doubront role?), Kelly, and Barnes. I do hope that Smith impresses the rest of the year and Maddox has done absolutely nothing wrong in the majors as of now, but we'll see. I'm hopeful if Barnes isn't straightened out soon that Smith or Maddox get the nod. Kelly has actually has actually had some post-season success so I think he makes it.
At this point I think Bogaerts, too, is the odd man out which makes Nunez the SS and the Sox defensively worse although Bogaerts is no gold glover.
But it's obvious that Bogaerts is the odd man out at this point. At least Hanley hits an occasional HR and does have some mini hot streaks. Bogaerts offers none of that and probably won't until some point next year.
So I expect to Vazquez behind the plate with Leon catching Sale, an infield of Moreland, Pedroia, Nunez, and Devers, with Bogaerts and Holt as the backup, and I expect an outfield of Benintendi, JBJ, and Betts, with Davis and Young backing up and Hanley the DH.
I guess against lefties, Young DHs and Ramirez moves to 1b? The Red Sox aren't too good against lefties, and that's the one downside of playing Houston - Keuschel is lefty, but still, I'd rather see the Sox go against him twice in 5 games than the RH Kluber.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 13:50:18 GMT -5
-I think the last game played where Farrell showed no willingness to pinch hit for Moreland against a LHP for Young in the 6th inning with 2 men on and no outs, told us all what we need to know where the Sox stand with Young. I don't think he gets a playoff spot. Sam Travis absolutely deserves a spot over Young at this point.
-I would agree that there should be a battle between Maddox and Smith for the last playoff spot. With the way Farrell is using Smith this month, I don't think they consider him a viable option, even though he should be. Smith is still really good averaging 92 mph, so I don't get that at all. With the way Maddox is throwing the ball, I don't have a problem giving him a spot. Farrell is treating Matt Barnes like the plague, as he should be because he can't reliably throw strikes.
-If you took a look at all the cold hard numbers, you'd realize that Porcello is the least deserving out of anyone for a playoff rotation spot. He actually isn't deserving of a playoff spot in the roster of Price is throwing the ball well. I have a great feeling that bias from last year with the Cy Young award winning year will factor in the decision though.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 12, 2017 14:04:24 GMT -5
Rodriguez has a 5.75 ERA since June 1. There's really no way to put him ahead of Porcello if we're going by anything other than their single most recent start.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 14:06:12 GMT -5
Porcello has had one good month since June though. The overall numbers sway in Eduardo's favor also.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 12, 2017 14:07:07 GMT -5
Porcello has had one good month since June though. The overall numbers sway in Eduardo's favor also. Porcello had a 3.06 ERA in July and a 4.04 in August. He was atrocious in June and got lit up in his first September start. He's been your basic #3/4 starter outside of that. I know that feels like a letdown, but he's better than Rodriguez.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 14:09:31 GMT -5
Porcello has had one good month since June though. The overall numbers sway in Eduardo's favor also. Porcello had a 3.06 ERA in July and a 4.04 in August. Alright, I stand corrected, but there is a difference between a 4 ERA which Eduardo is closer to and a 4.5 ERA which Porcello is closer to. Porcello leads the league in homeruns, which could be a big-time problem come playoff time also.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 12, 2017 14:13:58 GMT -5
Porcello had a 3.06 ERA in July and a 4.04 in August. Alright, I stand corrected, but there is a difference between a 4 ERA which Eduardo is closer to and a 4.5 ERA which Porcello is closer to. Porcello leads the league in homeruns, which could be a big-time problem come playoff time also. Rodriguez is allowing 1.77 HR/9 since the start of June, higher than Porcello's rate for the season. If Rodriguez can run off some starts like he did in April/May, then it's a discussion - he was excellent then. But until he does I really don't think it's close.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2017 14:16:21 GMT -5
If the Red Sox weren't going to put Young on the playoff roster, they'd have called up Brentz. I'd be stunned if he weren't on the roster. Keep in mind that with all the off days, they'll likely go with a short bullpen and 5 guys on the bench, which is what they did last year. Here's Bradford on the subject: www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/competition-red-sox-postseason-rosterMy current guess. Rotation: Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Porcello Bullpen: Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, Workman, Scott, Barnes, Price (if healthy, else Smith or Maddox) Starters: Vazquez, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ramirez Bench: Leon, Nunez, Holt, Davis, Young Like Bradford, I think the only realistic changing we might see is in the back of the bullpen, where things like Price's and Smith's health will matter, as will, say, Barnes' effectiveness down the stretch (do you trust him if he starts to crater again?).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 14:19:28 GMT -5
Alright, I stand corrected, but there is a difference between a 4 ERA which Eduardo is closer to and a 4.5 ERA which Porcello is closer to. Porcello leads the league in homeruns, which could be a big-time problem come playoff time also. Rodriguez is allowing 1.77 HR/9 since the start of June, higher than Porcello's rate for the season. If Rodriguez can run off some starts like he did in April/May, then it's a discussion - he was excellent then. But until he does I really don't think it's close. Do.you think that the Sox leave Eduardo off the playoff roster if Price isn't ready by then?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 14:21:00 GMT -5
If the Red Sox weren't going to put Young on the playoff roster, they'd have called up Brentz. I'd be stunned if he weren't on the roster. Keep in mind that with all the off days, they'll likely go with a short bullpen and 5 guys on the bench, which is what they did last year. Here's Bradford on the subject: www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/competition-red-sox-postseason-rosterIn a short series, like the wildcard and ALDS, I think you can get away with a 5 man bench. I don't think a 5 man bench is viable in a world series matchup or ALDS matchup.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 12, 2017 14:25:02 GMT -5
Rodriguez is allowing 1.77 HR/9 since the start of June, higher than Porcello's rate for the season. If Rodriguez can run off some starts like he did in April/May, then it's a discussion - he was excellent then. But until he does I really don't think it's close. Do.you think that the Sox leave Eduardo off the playoff roster if Price isn't ready by then? My guess is Rodriguez makes it over Abad. They go for a five-man bench in the playoffs because they only need four starters. So they can carry that many on the bench and still pull a seven-person bullpen.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2017 14:39:50 GMT -5
If the Red Sox weren't going to put Young on the playoff roster, they'd have called up Brentz. I'd be stunned if he weren't on the roster. Keep in mind that with all the off days, they'll likely go with a short bullpen and 5 guys on the bench, which is what they did last year. Here's Bradford on the subject: www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/competition-red-sox-postseason-rosterIn a short series, like the wildcard and ALDS, I think you can get away with a 5 man bench. I don't think a 5 man bench is viable in a world series matchup or ALDS matchup. As mentioned, you only need 4 SP in the playoffs, and you never play more than 3 days in a row. A fifth guy on the bench is infinitely more useful than an 8th bullpen arm. Yes, some teams go to 12 arms in the 7-game series, but you don't have to. Blue Jays stayed with 11 in the ALCS, while the other three Championship series teams went with 12.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 14:40:45 GMT -5
Do.you think that the Sox leave Eduardo off the playoff roster if Price isn't ready by then? My guess is Rodriguez makes it over Abad. They go for a five-man bench in the playoffs because they only need four starters. So they can carry that many on the bench and still pull a seven-person bullpen. So 7 man bullpen of Kimbrel, Kelly, Reed, Workman, Scott, Price, and Eduardo? 5 man bench of Leon, Young, Travis, Holt, and Davis. That's all viable. A lot of lefties in the bullpen, but a lot of talent there too. None of these names include Maddox, Barnes, or Hembree too. I love the idea of Price coming out as the Andrew Miller in the bullpen too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2017 14:52:20 GMT -5
Rodriguez has a 5.75 ERA since June 1. There's really no way to put him ahead of Porcello if we're going by anything other than their single most recent start. Totally reasonable although I do think there was a start in which Porcello gave up a ton of unearned runs. I think he gave up 11 runs but only 4 earned runs so it saved his ERA from being a total disaster. E-Rod has been lousy, too, but when he gets in a groove, I think he offers the higher upside than Porcello this year which is strange to say given that Porcello's upside is Cy Young Award Winner. But E-Rod has yet to get in that groove since returning from his injury, although last start was good. I want to see what he does in his remaining starts. I don't have much hope this season for drastic improvement by Porcello, which is why I might prefer E-Rod as the #4 starter. But as things stand today Porcello is the #4 starter and should be, and even if E-Rod pitches well, I still think E-Rod winds up in the pen - I hope he's used the way Doubront was in 2013, when he was kind of the unsung hero of the World Series. I don't think the Sox really need a LOOGY. I think between Reed, Kimbrel, and Workman, the Sox bullpen should be able to handle lefties and if the opposition really gears lefty David Price could be that guy who faces 3 or 4 lefties out of 6 batters if need be, although Price could bridge to Kimbrel if need be regardless of the handedness of the batter. And yes, Young will be on the team. Doubt that the Sox wouldn't put him there. As it is, he's batting 2nd tonight. The Sox will ride him to the end or else Brentz would be up here.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 14:55:49 GMT -5
In a short series, like the wildcard and ALDS, I think you can get away with a 5 man bench. I don't think a 5 man bench is viable in a world series matchup or ALDS matchup. As mentioned, you only need 4 SP in the playoffs, and you never play more than 3 days in a row. A fifth guy on the bench is infinitely more useful than an 8th bullpen arm. Yes, some teams go to 12 arms in the 7-game series, but you don't have to. Blue Jays stayed with 11 in the ALCS, while the other three Championship series teams went with 12. I don't take Bradord's word with a grain of salt. In his scenario, he lists Barnes as a lock for the bullpen and he goes with a 4 man bench. I think that's completely wrong. If they go with a 8th pitcher, I think it's Maddox. If they go with a 5 man bench, I think the 5th man is Travis.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2017 14:58:54 GMT -5
My guess is Rodriguez makes it over Abad. They go for a five-man bench in the playoffs because they only need four starters. So they can carry that many on the bench and still pull a seven-person bullpen. So 7 man bullpen of Kimbrel, Kelly, Reed, Workman, Scott, Price, and Eduardo? 5 man bench of Leon, Young, Travis, Holt, and Davis. That's all viable. A lot of lefties in the bullpen, but a lot of talent there too. None of these names include Maddox, Barnes, or Hembree too. I love the idea of Price coming out as the Andrew Miller in the bullpen too. Your bench leaves one of Pedroia, Nunez, Hanley, or Moreland off the roster. The only way Travis makes the roster is over Young. I wonder if they're going to want to carry Davis as the only bench outfielder if they're hoping to use him as a pinch runner, although I guess Nunez or Holt in LF is an option in a pinch.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2017 15:01:11 GMT -5
As mentioned, you only need 4 SP in the playoffs, and you never play more than 3 days in a row. A fifth guy on the bench is infinitely more useful than an 8th bullpen arm. Yes, some teams go to 12 arms in the 7-game series, but you don't have to. Blue Jays stayed with 11 in the ALCS, while the other three Championship series teams went with 12. I don't take Bradord's word with a grain of salt. In his scenario, he lists Barnes as a lock for the bullpen and he goes with a 4 man bench. I think that's completely wrong. If they go with a 8th pitcher, I think it's Maddox. If they go with a 5 man bench, I think the 5th man is Travis. 11 pitchers + 14 position players = five-man bench. Check your math. And he never uses the word "lock" in the article, so I have no idea what you're talking about. He lists him as a favorite to make the roster right now and I think that's correct. I agree he's no lock and I think Bradford would as well. Also see my post above re: Travis making the roster. You're forgetting someone, although I'm not sure who. Slow down, man.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 15:07:04 GMT -5
I don't take Bradord's word with a grain of salt. In his scenario, he lists Barnes as a lock for the bullpen and he goes with a 4 man bench. I think that's completely wrong. If they go with a 8th pitcher, I think it's Maddox. If they go with a 5 man bench, I think the 5th man is Travis. 11 pitchers + 14 position players = five-man bench. Check your math. And he never uses the word "lock" in the article, so I have no idea what you're talking about. He lists him as a favorite to make the roster right now and I think that's correct. I agree he's no lock and I think Bradford would as well. Also see my post above re: Travis making the roster. You're forgetting someone, although I'm not sure who. Slow down, man. Ohh I wasn't arguing the 5 man bench thing versus the 8th pitcher. I was arguing against that article you posted that I forgot to get to. I do think Travis has a really good shot to take that roster spot over Young. Young brings nothing. He hasn't hit lefties all season and he brings no versatility. I also look at the way Farrell didn't use him in this past game. Why don't you pinch hit Young in the 6th with runners on with Moreland at the plate against left handed reliever? Sorry about posting so fast also.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2017 15:42:52 GMT -5
11 pitchers + 14 position players = five-man bench. Check your math. And he never uses the word "lock" in the article, so I have no idea what you're talking about. He lists him as a favorite to make the roster right now and I think that's correct. I agree he's no lock and I think Bradford would as well. Also see my post above re: Travis making the roster. You're forgetting someone, although I'm not sure who. Slow down, man. Ohh I wasn't arguing the 5 man bench thing versus the 8th pitcher. I was arguing against that article you posted that I forgot to get to. I do think Travis has a really good shot to take that roster spot over Young. Young brings nothing. He hasn't hit lefties all season and he brings no versatility. I also look at the way Farrell didn't use him in this past game. Why don't you pinch hit Young in the 6th with runners on with Moreland at the plate against left handed reliever? Sorry about posting so fast also. I know exactly what you were posting. Bradford listed 14 position players, which is a five-man bench. That was my point. You also posted "5 man bench of Leon, Young, Travis, Holt, and Davis." My point was that this leaves someone off the roster who is a lock to make the roster. Don't worry so much about one at-bat. He's hitting Young second today against a LHP. Young hadn't played since starting on the 4th, then pinch hitting on the 5th and 6th. Makes me wonder if he'd tweaked something and wasn't available, or perhaps were holding him out for a few days while he worked with Davis on the side or something.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2017 15:50:05 GMT -5
Ohh I wasn't arguing the 5 man bench thing versus the 8th pitcher. I was arguing against that article you posted that I forgot to get to. I do think Travis has a really good shot to take that roster spot over Young. Young brings nothing. He hasn't hit lefties all season and he brings no versatility. I also look at the way Farrell didn't use him in this past game. Why don't you pinch hit Young in the 6th with runners on with Moreland at the plate against left handed reliever? Sorry about posting so fast also. I know exactly what you were posting. Bradford listed 14 position players, which is a five-man bench. That was my point. You also posted "5 man bench of Leon, Young, Travis, Holt, and Davis." My point was that this leaves someone off the roster who is a lock to make the roster.Don't worry so much about one at-bat. He's hitting Young second today against a LHP. Young hadn't played since starting on the 4th, then pinch hitting on the 5th and 6th. Makes me wonder if he'd tweaked something and wasn't available, or perhaps were holding him out for a few days while he worked with Davis on the side or something. Correct. He left the odd man out of the infield. The Red Sox only have 3 positional starting spots for these 4 players: Pedroia, Nunez, Bogaerts, and Devers, assuming Moreland at 1b and Hanley DHing. I would imagine Bogaerts is the "5th man" on the bench, certainly over Sam Travis, and Travis doesn't make it over Young. And they got Davis to pinch-run, and Holt, along with Leon, are the only guys that can hit lefty coming off the bench. I guess Travis could make it over Holt, but I think Farrell would consider Holt a versatile pinch-hitting lefty off the bench, so I'd be kind of surprised if Travis make it over Holt.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2017 16:11:18 GMT -5
If the Red Sox weren't going to put Young on the playoff roster, they'd have called up Brentz. I'd be stunned if he weren't on the roster. Keep in mind that with all the off days, they'll likely go with a short bullpen and 5 guys on the bench, which is what they did last year. Here's Bradford on the subject: www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/competition-red-sox-postseason-rosterMy current guess. Rotation: Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Porcello Bullpen: Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, Workman, Scott, Barnes, Price (if healthy, else Smith or Maddox) Starters: Vazquez, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ramirez Bench: Leon, Nunez, Holt, Davis, Young Like Bradford, I think the only realistic changing we might see is in the back of the bullpen, where things like Price's and Smith's health will matter, as will, say, Barnes' effectiveness down the stretch (do you trust him if he starts to crater again?). Why wouldn't you have ERod in the bullpen? Scott has been pretty lousy this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2017 16:28:19 GMT -5
If the Red Sox weren't going to put Young on the playoff roster, they'd have called up Brentz. I'd be stunned if he weren't on the roster. Keep in mind that with all the off days, they'll likely go with a short bullpen and 5 guys on the bench, which is what they did last year. Here's Bradford on the subject: www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/competition-red-sox-postseason-rosterMy current guess. Rotation: Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Porcello Bullpen: Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, Workman, Scott, Barnes, Price (if healthy, else Smith or Maddox) Starters: Vazquez, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ramirez Bench: Leon, Nunez, Holt, Davis, Young Like Bradford, I think the only realistic changing we might see is in the back of the bullpen, where things like Price's and Smith's health will matter, as will, say, Barnes' effectiveness down the stretch (do you trust him if he starts to crater again?). Why wouldn't you have ERod in the bullpen? Scott has been pretty lousy this year. Robby Scott vs. LHH this year: 70 PA, .133/.243/.333, 17 K, 8 BB Eduardo Rodriguez vs. LHH this year: 94 PA, .317/.394/.524, 22 K, 9 BB FWIW, Rodriguez has pitched in relief just twice in his pro career, once was in 2011 in the GCL. Once was this April. But that said, He's definitely also a candidate for the bullpen, so good point. But I don't think he's necessarily going to make it over Scott as the bullpen lefty. I'd also quibble with the general idea that Robby Scott has "been pretty lousy this year."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2017 16:56:15 GMT -5
Yeah if Eduardo Rodriguez makes the roster, it will be over Barnes, not Scott imo.
Barnes hasn't been trusted in a high leverage situation in 3 weeks, and they had to fake DL him because he melted in the last high leverage situation he stepped into.
I don't see any scenario where Barnes sniffs a playoff spot right now.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2017 17:22:06 GMT -5
Why wouldn't you have ERod in the bullpen? Scott has been pretty lousy this year. Robby Scott vs. LHH this year: 70 PA, .133/.243/.333, 17 K, 8 BB Eduardo Rodriguez vs. LHH this year: 94 PA, .317/.394/.524, 22 K, 9 BB FWIW, Rodriguez has pitched in relief just twice in his pro career, once was in 2011 in the GCL. Once was this April. But that said, He's definitely also a candidate for the bullpen, so good point. But I don't think he's necessarily going to make it over Scott as the bullpen lefty. I'd also quibble with the general idea that Robby Scott has "been pretty lousy this year." Even if you look at his entire career (and best practices most of the time is to use the largest sample available), Rodriguez has had reverse platoon splits. Even if you regress that appropriately, he's not a guy who is going to shut down lefties by virtue of the fact that his best secondary pitch is his changeup, so agree that he's not really a fit for the LOOGY role.
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