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Playoff roster projection thread
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 26, 2017 11:57:23 GMT -5
Opening series.
Pitchers:
A) Starters - Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez (4) Relievers - Fister, Price, Maddux, Scott, Smith, Kelly, Reed, Kimbrel (8)
Position
A) Starters - Vasquez, Moreland (DH/IB) , Pedey, X, Devers/Nunez (Platoon), Benni, JBJ, Mookie, Hanley (DH/1B) (10) Bench - Leon, Davis, Holt. (3)
I hate that Holt will be there, but we need a left handed bat. I would prefer Marrero, who bring a lot to the table in a bench role.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 26, 2017 12:04:05 GMT -5
As he says though, a better analysis would've looked at the players' splits. The point of this for me is more that there's no David Ortiz for which you specifically bother carrying Mike Myers, to use the old example. And I think it does show that. But it doesn't really do enough to get to what we've been looking at more analytically regarding the Astros in the LDS, in that they don't even really have left-handed hitters, period, for which it's worth giving the nod to the LHRP if it's close. For me, in an LCS against the Indians, say, it is probably worth having Scott on the roster for guys like Kipnis and Bruce, who have heavy splits. I think Price will be the de facto LOOGY. I would anticipate that he will be used in Andrew Miller type role in a normal 9 inning game. However, if you want to be complete in roster construction a lefty specialist could be very useful in an extra inning game. I would rather have Scott available (even if isn't getting lefties out) because of his difficult delivery.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 26, 2017 13:55:18 GMT -5
I think Marrero needs to be on the roster.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 26, 2017 14:07:56 GMT -5
That reminds me - I wasn't as bullish on most about Tzu-Wei Lin being the best bench option for the playoffs, but it's pretty weird/silly that he's gotten one at-bat in the last 21 days.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 26, 2017 17:12:06 GMT -5
That reminds me - I wasn't as bullish on most about Tzu-Wei Lin being the best bench option for the playoffs, but it's pretty weird/silly that he's gotten one at-bat in the last 21 days. It was a great at-bat too...
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 26, 2017 21:41:57 GMT -5
Tonight's game - suspect Hembree pitched himself off of the playoff roster...Young may have cemented his.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 27, 2017 6:38:25 GMT -5
Tonight's game - suspect Hembree pitched himself off of the playoff roster...Young may have cemented his. I don't think Hembree was ever a consideration for a playoff spot. I think there are 8 pitchers ahead on the totem pole at least in terms of high leverage situations right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 27, 2017 6:40:57 GMT -5
I think Marrero needs to be on the roster. I think he sneaks on the playoff roster if Nunez can't go by the ALDS, which is looking like a real possibility at the moment. I mentioned this on the Gameday thread but was worth an extra mention here.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 27, 2017 6:50:35 GMT -5
Opening series. Pitchers: A) Starters - Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez (4) Relievers - Fister, Price, Maddux, Scott, Smith, Kelly, Reed, Kimbrel (8) If the Sox go with 8 pitchers, then I see Workman getting in over Fister. I've seen people here argue against the need for a loogy against the Astros and I actually agree with them. I just think that Farrell always likes to have Robbie Scott available in case the need arises. I would love to see the Sox to shy away from the Loogy but I'm skeptical of it myself. There is actually a good case to be made that if you're going to replace any pitcher on the roster, then Scott should be the guy. Marrero would actually fill more of a role then Scott against the Astros. Marrero could even conceivably start against Keuchel and Pedrioa could DH that day. That way you don't lose anything defensively and you still keep Pedrioa's bat in the lineup (while keeping his legs fresher). You also don't lose Hanley's bat against the LHP because he would play first base (even though this is a non story since Hanley can't hit anyone anymore).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2017 11:09:22 GMT -5
Opening series. Pitchers: A) Starters - Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez (4) Relievers - Fister, Price, Maddux, Scott, Smith, Kelly, Reed, Kimbrel (8) If the Sox go with 8 pitchers, then I see Workman getting in over Fister. I've seen people here argue against the need for a loogy against the Astros and I actually agree with them. I just think that Farrell always likes to have Robbie Scott available in case the need arises. I would love to see the Sox to shy away from the Loogy but I'm skeptical of it myself. There is actually a good case to be made that if you're going to replace any pitcher on the roster, then Scott should be the guy. Marrero would actually fill more of a role then Scott against the Astros. Marrero could even conceivably start against Keuchel and Pedrioa could DH that day. That way you don't lose anything defensively and you still keep Pedrioa's bat in the lineup (while keeping his legs fresher). You also don't lose Hanley's bat against the LHP because he would play first base (even though this is a non story since Hanley can't hit anyone anymore). This is true. But by the same logic, do you think he carries jumper cables with him when he walks to the corner store? The question is whether he's so stupid that he thinks a need for Robby Scott will arise when it's literally inconceivable. He's a stubborn "player's manager" who will let his veteran players do what they want to do (i.e., play) even when it's a terrible idea. That's really his one remaining flaw as a manager. They seem to have spent the winter teaching him how to use his bullpen (and it just occurs to me that he may have talked to Francona about handling the player side of that).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2017 12:40:24 GMT -5
Opening series. Pitchers: A) Starters - Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez (4) Relievers - Fister, Price, Maddux, Scott, Smith, Kelly, Reed, Kimbrel (8) If the Sox go with 8 pitchers, then I see Workman getting in over Fister. I've seen people here argue against the need for a loogy against the Astros and I actually agree with them. I just think that Farrell always likes to have Robbie Scott available in case the need arises. I would love to see the Sox to shy away from the Loogy but I'm skeptical of it myself. There is actually a good case to be made that if you're going to replace any pitcher on the roster, then Scott should be the guy. Marrero would actually fill more of a role then Scott against the Astros. Marrero could even conceivably start against Keuchel and Pedrioa could DH that day. That way you don't lose anything defensively and you still keep Pedrioa's bat in the lineup (while keeping his legs fresher). You also don't lose Hanley's bat against the LHP because he would play first base (even though this is a non story since Hanley can't hit anyone anymore). I'd be surprised if the Sox went 8 deep in the pen for two reasons. 1) the lineup has players in it that are truly banged up. I doubt they want to short-circuit their bench too much. 2) The Red Sox would play on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday meaning they'd have 2 days off while playing 5 games. Unless they're going 19 innings again, I don't think they'll need to keep that many guys in the pen. I agree that Hembree was never really a consideration for one of these spots. He's basically a mop up man at this point. If Fister doesn't start I don't think he's in the pen considering how much he struggles in the first two innings of his starts - you don't want that coming out of the pen. You figure Kimbrel, Reed, and Price are total locks. Smith and Maddox have done everything as perfectly as you can do, but with Smith's track record and his ability to pitch back-to-back games, he'll be on the roster. Workman has also pitched well and has a track record and Farrell has trusted him in key spots before in the post-season. No reason not to think Workman will be there, so that leaves 2 more spots if they go with 7. If Fister and Porcello are starters then E-Rod goes to the pen, but at this point E-Rod looks like the pre-injury E-Rod, and that guy is your #3 starter, so that leaves Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, and Scott if they have two more spots left. I would guess Kelly and Scott get those spots because Kelly has post-season experience and has pitched well in those times surprisingly enough and has mostly pitched alright. Maddox has pitched like a guy deserving of a spot, but I think Farrell has visions of using Scott in the 6th inning to get Reddick out in a key spot, so I can see him wanting the 2nd lefty in the pen, regardless of what I or others think. It's not what we think as much as what we think Farrell and Dombrowski will decide. With Pedroia, Nunez, and even Betts kind of shaky, I think the Sox would want two backup infielders and two backup outfielders. We know Leon is there, Ramirez is there most likely as a backup if Nunez starts as DH. After that it's kind of murky. They like Davis as a pinch-runner who can play the outfield, and can even hit lefties, so he gets a spot. I think they're worried about Devers' defense and want a strong defender around, so I think Marrero gets a spot. He's likely Devers' defensive replacement late in games or plays 2b against lefties if Pedroia gets hurt. Then it comes down to the final spot, Holt vs Young, and I think Holt gets it because he can play either in the infield or outfield and bats LH, the most likely LH pinch-hitter off the bench if needed (I would hope not). If Nunez can't play, then that puts Hanley back into the lineup as the DH, in addition to being Moreland's platoon-mate at 1b. If that's the case then either Sam Travis or Chris Young gets the final spot. Farrell does seem to like Travis and has given him a lot of rope to audition. In that scenario I'm not sure which way it would go. Farrell has actually bypassed Young at times, and I can't imagine that as mediocre as Travis is defensively, that he'd prefer to put Hanley at 1b at all. The idea of Hanley at 1b in 2 of 5 games if it goes that far can't be preferable, so Sam Travis would get the final spot if Nunez is out. Besides who wants a DH (Young)who can't hit? We already have enough of that this year. I'd be very surprised if they went with 4 on the bench given the health of the lineup.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 27, 2017 13:04:47 GMT -5
Workman has also pitched well and has a track record and Farrell has trusted him in key spots before in the post-season. No reason not to think Workman will be there, so that leaves 2 more spots if they go with 7. Hard to believe that Workman has been on the 40 man and added to the 25 man longer ago than anyone outside of Pedroia and JBJ. Wright, Vazquez, and Holt beat him to the 40 man but Workman beat those guys to the majors.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 28, 2017 9:55:40 GMT -5
This is true. But by the same logic, do you think he carries jumper cables with him when he walks to the corner store? The question is whether he's so stupid that he thinks a need for Robby Scott will arise when it's literally inconceivable. He's a stubborn "player's manager" who will let his veteran players do what they want to do (i.e., play) even when it's a terrible idea. That's really his one remaining flaw as a manager. They seem to have spent the winter teaching him how to use his bullpen (and it just occurs to me that he may have talked to Francona about handling the player side of that). Question: do you think the fact the team has played a lot of extra inning games, along with a lot of seemingly close games should be a consideration in having a LOOGY should the need arise? I see the playoffs as being a pitching duel, for the most part. I would rather someone err on the side of having a lefty v lefty matchup (not considering the splits at this point of the other relievers). Truthfully, it could be the biggest (matchup) out in any given game, series. It is the same rationale of having a speed guy on your bench, although that need may arise more frequently.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 28, 2017 19:48:22 GMT -5
Anyone want to guess the third starter in the playoff rotation right now?!!!
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Post by soxfando on Sept 28, 2017 20:12:44 GMT -5
Anyone want to guess the third starter in the playoff rotation right now?!!! I'd like to see Hector Velazquez bring it.
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Post by jiant2520 on Sept 28, 2017 20:15:20 GMT -5
Anyone want to guess the third starter in the playoff rotation right now?!!! I'd like to see Hector Velazquez bring it. Smh....
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 28, 2017 21:43:53 GMT -5
I think 3rd starter has to be Porcello.
Tonight should have sealed the deal for Barnes NOT on the playoff roster, Maddox on.
Really odd how Pomeranz and ERod failed to show up in their last starts.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2017 21:56:08 GMT -5
I think 3rd starter has to be Porcello. Tonight should have sealed the deal for Barnes NOT on the playoff roster, Maddox on. Really odd how Pomeranz and ERod failed to show up in their last starts. They probably will go with Porcello as #3, but at this point I'd still remain with E-Rod, as bad as he was tonight. I wonder what happens if Fister pitches a gem tomorrow, especially a needed one if NY wins tomorrow. Does he win a spot over Porcello? At this point the biggest thing Porcello has going for him is 2016, because he didn't do much of anything to earn the spot in 2017. I don't think either Barnes or Maddox will be on the roster unless they don't carry Scott or think Workman is struggling too much lately to make the roster. Have to think that Kimbrel, Reed, and Price are locks and that Smith and Kelly have won jobs, leaving 2 roster spots left assuming they use a 5 man bench.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 28, 2017 22:03:31 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I'd still start ERod game 3.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 28, 2017 23:04:21 GMT -5
Another take with three games left
SP Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello (4) Pen Fister, Kimbrel, Reed, Workman, Price, Kelly, Maddox, Smith (8) (hoping Barnes, Hembree and Abad have sealed their fate, and Boyer and Scott are also off)
Vazquez, Leon (2) Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Bogaerts, Nunez (hoping he is healthy), Marrero (for his D) (6) Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Davis (for his speed) (4) Ramirez (1)
this leaves Holt and Young off the roster...if Nunez can't play, Holt is added.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2017 23:48:45 GMT -5
With all the off days 12 pitchers seems unlikely. I hate to say it but in the scenario above I think they will eliminate the fifth starter and go with Holt.
I also doubt if Maddox will get the nod over Barnes, although I hope he does.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 29, 2017 0:53:53 GMT -5
Another take with three games left SP Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello (4) Pen Fister, Kimbrel, Reed, Workman, Price, Kelly, Maddox, Smith (8) (hoping Barnes, Hembree and Abad have sealed their fate, and Boyer and Scott are also off) Vazquez, Leon (2) Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Bogaerts, Nunez (hoping he is healthy), Marrero (for his D) (6) Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Davis (for his speed) (4) Ramirez (1) this leaves Holt and Young off the roster...if Nunez can't play, Holt is added. I think that is the exact roster they should go with. The only exception will be that Holt gets put on the roster over Marrero. Marrero has played better but Holt is more versatile. Remember, the Sox won't be carrying a 4th outfielder if Davis' one job is to run. Holt is that backup infielder and outfielder.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 29, 2017 7:11:21 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I'd still start ERod game 3. Not crazy at all. If everyone has one bad start before the playoffs, it's not like we can choose none of them. ERod didn't even look that bad last night. Houston hit some good pitches and got some weak contact off him. He wasn't throwing anything right down the middle.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2017 9:26:10 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I'd still start ERod game 3. Not crazy at all. If everyone has one bad start before the playoffs, it's not like we can choose none of them. ERod didn't even look that bad last night. Houston hit some good pitches and got some weak contact off him. He wasn't throwing anything right down the middle. The contact on pitches out of the zone made me wonder if he might be tipping again. He also tends to get down early (body language) if things go poorly for him quickly and early (he is just a kid - needs time and maturity). I love his arm, his potential and often, the results. Again - when he pitches, Farrell needs to be ready to hook him quick if it becomes clear he doesn't have it. Things can explode quickly.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 30, 2017 20:26:42 GMT -5
Is it out of the question that Price could start a game 3 against the Astros? Game 3's are always pivotal, epsecially in a five-game series. This could only happen, of course, if he didn't pitch in 1 or 2.
Even if he gives us only four quality innings, that's a lot better than seeing Porcello, Fister or E-Rod fall behind right away. Game 3 follows a day off, so the pen should be reasonably rested.
Until this weekend, I thought our fourth-starter spot in the PS was a Dumpster fire. With E-Rod's suck the other night, the third spot doesn't look like anything we can count on either.
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