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Playoff roster projection thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 2, 2017 17:10:57 GMT -5
I've come to terms with Holt being likely - he's played better of late and coming back from the concussion and vertigo seemed to take a long time. There really aren't many variables on the final roster at this point....The Smith/Barnes/Scott/Maddox "who of this bunch makes it" may be most interesting...Farrell like his vets and seems like that would favor Barnes. Scott helped himself late. Hoping Smith's last outing was just misuse in a terrible weather day.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 2, 2017 18:21:46 GMT -5
Have to have Maddox or it's not a true meritocracy. His ability to throw strikes compared with, let's say Barnes, is enough for me. He walked 1.04/9. Barnes walked 3.62/9. He out-FIPed Barnes by 2.64 to 3.33.
This Astros lineup will punish the reliever who comes and walks guys. That's reliever's name is Matt Barnes.
Also, if Pedroia and Nunez are both able to play (one at 2B and one at DH), I don't know why Hanley would start against RHP. If you want to give him a shot against Keuchel and he's willing/able to play 1B in place of Moreland, go ahead, but that's it.
In fact, if they go with 12 P's, they should leave Hanley and his -.4 WAR (Fangraphs) and 93 wRC+ off the roster altogether.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 2, 2017 19:54:58 GMT -5
Have to have Maddox or it's not a true meritocracy. His ability to throw strikes compared with, let's say Barnes, is enough for me. He walked 1.04/9. Barnes walked 3.62/9. He out-FIPed Barnes by 2.64 to 3.33. This Astros lineup will punish the reliever who comes and walks guys. That's reliever's name is Matt Barnes. Also, if Pedroia and Nunez are both able to play (one at 2B and one at DH), I don't know why Hanley would start against RHP. If you want to give him a shot against Keuchel and he's willing/able to play 1B in place of Moreland, go ahead, but that's it. In fact, if they go with 12 P's, they should leave Hanley and his -.4 WAR (Fangraphs) and 93 wRC+ off the roster altogether. I agreed with your entire point about Maddox. Hanley could serve a little bit of value against Keuchel in the Houston series. So his spot could be needed in the short series. However, if the Sox advance and faced Cleveland again most likely in the ALCS, then it would totally make sense to get rid of Hanley for Robbie Scott. The Indians have 4 right handed starters and they have a bunch of good LHB. So Hanley wouldn't be necessary against them, in fact he'd be a waste of a roster spot by then.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2017 1:55:49 GMT -5
Have to have Maddox or it's not a true meritocracy. His ability to throw strikes compared with, let's say Barnes, is enough for me. He walked 1.04/9. Barnes walked 3.62/9. He out-FIPed Barnes by 2.64 to 3.33. This Astros lineup will punish the reliever who comes and walks guys. That's reliever's name is Matt Barnes. Also, if Pedroia and Nunez are both able to play (one at 2B and one at DH), I don't know why Hanley would start against RHP. If you want to give him a shot against Keuchel and he's willing/able to play 1B in place of Moreland, go ahead, but that's it. In fact, if they go with 12 P's, they should leave Hanley and his -.4 WAR (Fangraphs) and 93 wRC+ off the roster altogether. There exists no time frame this season where Austin Maddox walked batters less often than Matt Barnes. September? After coming off the DL, Matt Barnes faced 42 batters and walked 1. The first batter he faced. Austin Maddox faced 52 batters and walked 2. Barnes had a bit of a wild streak in August, when he walked 5 of 42 batters. Meanwhile, in games you weren't watching, Austin Maddox was walking 7 out of 40 AAA hitters. Since June 26, when Barnes changed his delivery, Barnes has walked 11 of 148 batters and Maddox has walked 16 of 145, and furthermore again, most of Maddox's hitters were AAA hitters. So ... until this month Maddox was walking 60% more batters than Barnes (15.1% vs. 9.4%) even though he was facing AAA hitters. He was called up and wonderfully and mysteriously stopped walking people. At the smae time, however, Barnes stopped walking people even more dramatically. Let's also note that with one exception--his two shutout innings in the 19-inning win--Austin Maddox has not thrown a single pitch in MLB that had a serious chance of affecting the outcome of the game. He's been tremendous and will be a great guy to ride the Pawtucket shuttle next year. If he can keep throwing strikes like this, he can be a major asset to the MLB bullpen. But given the rest of his career before this month, that's a big if. Why would you use Hanley at DH over Nunez? Maybe because he was hurt all year, appears to be healthy now, has hit .310 / .333 / .552 in 30 PA since 9/20. Which is pretty much how good he actually is. And yes, Nunez's numbers with the Sox are better than that, but he had a 1222 OPS in his first 11 games after switching leagues, and has hit .278 / .314 / .435 since then. What had he hit over his previous 2 2/3 seasons when we traded for him? .292 / .328 / .428. That's basically how good he actually is, and that's not as good as a healthy Hanley. It's a nice extra bat bench, a RH alternative to Holt. He'll get a chance to DH against Keuchel, and at that point we'll have two more games to see how Hanley looks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2017 2:01:14 GMT -5
I've come to terms with Holt being likely - he's played better of late and coming back from the concussion and vertigo seemed to take a long time. There really aren't many variables on the final roster at this point....The Smith/Barnes/Scott/Maddox "who of this bunch makes it" may be most interesting...Farrell like his vets and seems like that would favor Barnes. Scott helped himself late. Hoping Smith's last outing was just misuse in a terrible weather day. Earlier in this thread I pointed out that Robby Scott serves no function against the Astros lineup, and we just played three crucial games against them and he didn't pitch once. (Of course, Reddick, the one guy you might use him against, was out, but it's unclear that he'll be healthy for the DS.) If we can advance, he'll certainly be back in the mix, of course.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 3, 2017 2:16:06 GMT -5
With all the off days 12 pitchers seems unlikely. I hate to say it but in the scenario above I think they will eliminate the fifth starter and go with Holt. I also doubt if Maddox will get the nod over Barnes, although I hope he does. "It’s likely we carry 11 pitchers so how that combination of guys works best, and does it provide flexibility with a potential starter in Game 4, all those things are being looked a little bit deeper than just the surface at this point," the Red Sox manager said.www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/here-best-guess-red-sox-alds-rosterFor me my rotation would be: Sale staff Pomeranz staff Sale Who the actual starters are in games 2 & 4 is inconsequential.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 3, 2017 3:17:00 GMT -5
With all the off days 12 pitchers seems unlikely. I hate to say it but in the scenario above I think they will eliminate the fifth starter and go with Holt. I also doubt if Maddox will get the nod over Barnes, although I hope he does. "It’s likely we carry 11 pitchers so how that combination of guys works best, and does it provide flexibility with a potential starter in Game 4, all those things are being looked a little bit deeper than just the surface at this point," the Red Sox manager said.www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/here-best-guess-red-sox-alds-rosterFor me my rotation would be: Sale staff Pomeranz staff Sale Who the actual starters are in games 2 & 4 is inconsequential. Bradford mentions nothing about Maddox, which is dumb. He should be better than that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 3, 2017 3:38:52 GMT -5
Eric, it's not Maddox' fault that Farrell hasn't thrown him in many high leverage situations at this point. Plus, it seems like Maddox has been a lot tougher to hit over Barnes. Okay, the walk rate is similar since the time they've been here the final two months, but Barnes needed a fake DL stint because he literally couldn't be trusted in high leverage innings anymore by the end of August. Barnes seemed lime he was only thrown into a high leverage situation once or twice after the DL stint. While we don't know how Maddox will do more regularly in high leverage innings, we know Matt Barnes is a coin flip and a heart attack waiting to happen in those situations. Ideally, you want neither pitcher in really tough high leverage innings in the playoffs.
As for the Nunez and Hanely debate, it's really nice that Hanley hit well for a week. We all still don't know the status of the shoulder even with that good stretch. The numbers might tell us that he's feeling better or it might tell us that he just had one single good week out of the season. Hanley has been a sub .250 hitter all year. Nunez has been a .300 or better hitter in both leagues this year. Nunez should be the guy that Farrell trusts to get a hit in a key spot and I think that is the guy Farrell trusts. One week doesn't make up for a whole season of sub par hitting for Hanley, I'm not buying it.
Personally, I don't think the decision would even be close if Nunez had a healthy set of legs for the postseason. His speed is a element Hanley just doesn't come close to having anymore. Nunez is a really good and fast player when healthy. Either way, Nunez is the DH if healthy throughout the playoffs for me and hopefully Farrell too, especially in Fenway Park.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 3, 2017 4:25:11 GMT -5
"It’s likely we carry 11 pitchers so how that combination of guys works best, and does it provide flexibility with a potential starter in Game 4, all those things are being looked a little bit deeper than just the surface at this point," the Red Sox manager said.www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/here-best-guess-red-sox-alds-rosterFor me my rotation would be: Sale staff Pomeranz staff Sale Who the actual starters are in games 2 & 4 is inconsequential. Bradford mentions nothing about Maddox, which is dumb. He should be better than that. lol, it's Bradford, I stopped reading after the quote. The mention of the quote in a tweet is what drew me to it. I have no idea who Bradford thinks will make the team. What I clicked on: While the Red Sox' 4-3 loss to the Astros Sunday was inconsequential, what John Farrell said after the regular season finale was anything but.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2017 10:20:19 GMT -5
Eric, it's not Maddox' fault that Farrell hasn't thrown him in many high leverage situations at this point. Plus, it seems like Maddox has been a lot tougher to hit over Barnes. Okay, the walk rate is similar since the time they've been here the final two months, but Barnes needed a fake DL stint because he literally couldn't be trusted in high leverage innings anymore by the end of August. Barnes seemed lime he was only thrown into a high leverage situation once or twice after the DL stint. While we don't know how Maddox will do more regularly in high leverage innings, we know Matt Barnes is a coin flip and a heart attack waiting to happen in those situations. Ideally, you want neither pitcher in really tough high leverage innings in the playoffs. As for the Nunez and Hanely debate, it's really nice that Hanley hit well for a week. We all still don't know the status of the shoulder even with that good stretch. The numbers might tell us that he's feeling better or it might tell us that he just had one single good week out of the season. Hanley has been a sub .250 hitter all year. Nunez has been a .300 or better hitter in both leagues this year. Nunez should be the guy that Farrell trusts to get a hit in a key spot and I think that is the guy Farrell trusts. One week doesn't make up for a whole season of sub par hitting for Hanley, I'm not buying it. Personally, I don't think the decision would even be close if Nunez had a healthy set of legs for the postseason. His speed is a element Hanley just doesn't come close to having anymore. Nunez is a really good and fast player when healthy. Either way, Nunez is the DH if healthy throughout the playoffs for me and hopefully Farrell too, especially in Fenway Park. The sentence in bold amounts to "JF did not (yet) trust Maddox in high-leverage situations, but I would have." Do I need to say any more? Even if you could match JF's general baseball acumen, can you match him for personal assessment of Maddox's makeup? Barnes' career in low and medium leverage is hugely better than Maddox's. Barnes always struggled in high-leverage. They gave him time off to get his head together about it. He pitched in extremely high leverage in back-to-back extra-inning games in Baltimore; Pedro Alvarez hit a medium-soft liner to center, was erased on a CS, and then nobody got the ball out of infield off of him. Austin Hays struck out, Tim Beckham grounded weakly to 3B, Machado fouled out to 1B, Schoop popped up, Jones reached on a normal GB to 3B error, and Trey Mancini hit a tapper back to Barnes. Like all pitchers, Barnes is inconsistent. He's certainly the last guy in the pen. But in any big picture, which you are relentlessly continuing to refuse to consider, he is the better pitcher. The gap between Barnes and Maddox before this month was immense. Maddox had one very good month by Maddox (a combination of 29% Hard and 51% OF-FB is not great unless you have the Red Sox OF defense and/or a good deal of luck). That does not come close to eliminating that gap. It's 10 games -- 10 games which, BTW, aren't nearly as good as Barnes' first 10 games with his new delivery. Barne's role will be to pitch early in games started by E-Rod and Fister, where he could be part of 7 or 8 innings of elite-starter-level relief. Neither of us know how Hanley feels physically. And yes, a week of hitting like himself when apparently healthy absolutely can't "make up" for a year of injured, subpar hitting. He still has lousy overall numbers and he was still a disappointment and he still is not a guy you want to trust to be healthy next year. None of that gets changed by a week of good hitting. But none of that is what we care about. We don't care about "making up," and we don't care about how we feel about the player. It's not like your girlfriend or wife cheated on you for five months and has been wonderful for the last week. All we are concerned with now is how he is likely to hit in the post-season, what we predict he will do. And if Hanley is close to 100%, the previous near-year of injured subpar hitting is indeed completely meaningless.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 3, 2017 10:51:54 GMT -5
Maddox had a 3.50 ERA and a 38:21 strikeout-to-walk ratio with Pawtucket in 36 innings. Farrell's ability to build his confidence and get max value by using him in low leverage situations is a credit to Farrell (and Maddox for pitching well), but given his body of work outside those 17 1/3 innings it's hard for me to believe that he's an answer in high leverage or a better pitcher than Matt Barnes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 3, 2017 15:26:08 GMT -5
I just don't see Hanley starting over Nunez at any point at the DH position all postseason. I don't see it.
Matt Barnes could easily be on the postseason roster, I just would prefer Maddox but maybe that's just me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 3, 2017 16:44:46 GMT -5
I just don't see Hanley starting over Nunez at any point at the DH position all postseason. I don't see it. Matt Barnes could easily be on the postseason roster, I just would prefer Maddox but maybe that's just me. You might not see it but it sounds like Farrell sees it. I was reading an article on WEEI.com about Nunez and read this line: "As for how the Red Sox will utilize Nunez for the ALDS, there are multiple possibilities. Farrell suggested that Nunez wouldn't be taking Hanley Ramirez's spot at designated hitter, although the righty hitter has some of the best success against Houston Game 1 starter Justin Verlander of any of the Red Sox hitters (5-for-15, .333). One possibility would be to start Nunez at third base in the place of Rafael Devers, who did manage at least one hit and one RBI in each of his last three games." If Hanley is healthy then he's a viable DH option although I don't like Devers sitting against Verlander. One school of thought is Hanley is healthy and capable of much greater production than he's given and Nunez is coming off an injury and rusty. If you go purely by 2016 stats then the steady bat of Nunez, particularly since coming to Boston, would be preferable, but it sounds like Hanley is getting the nod. Against lefties it's easier as Hanley plays 1b and Nunez can DH. And now I am thinking Barnes will get the nod over Workman, especially with a comment that Farrell made about recent performances being a big part of the consideration. Also makes me wonder if E-Rod winds up in the pen with both Fister and Porcello starting, but we'll see.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 3, 2017 17:49:16 GMT -5
Redsoxchamps, thanks for the information. I think it's a mistake to go with Hanley over Devers especially in Game 1. Maybe that's just me. Nunez shouldn't see the field with his bad wheel.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 3, 2017 22:50:06 GMT -5
Rob BradfordVerified account @bradfo 7h7 hours ago More Eduardo Nunez will play in the ALDS. But now the question is, where and when?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 4, 2017 19:55:21 GMT -5
Pete Abraham? Verified account @peteabe 3m3 minutes ago
If this proves true, it would be a surprise. But hearing LHP Robby Scott will not be on the Red Sox roster. Lefties had a .527 OPS again him
Robbie Scott is indeed "unofficially" out according to Abraham.
What's unsurprising is that Peter doesn't get the move. Guy is clueless.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 4, 2017 20:30:48 GMT -5
Pete Abraham? Verified account @peteabe 3m3 minutes ago If this proves true, it would be a surprise. But hearing LHP Robby Scott will not be on the Red Sox roster. Lefties had a .527 OPS again him Robbie Scott is indeed "unofficially" out according to Abraham. What's unsurprising is that Peter doesn't get the move. Guy is clueless. If this is true that makes me think that E-Rod winds up in the bullpen and both Porcello and Fister get starts (assuming the series goes 4 games). I have always felt there would be two lefties in the pen one way or another. The other possibility is that both Barnes and Workman made it, E-Rod starts and Fister is off the roster, but I think the former scenario is probably where it heads.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 4, 2017 22:35:29 GMT -5
Have to have Maddox or it's not a true meritocracy. His ability to throw strikes compared with, let's say Barnes, is enough for me. He walked 1.04/9. Barnes walked 3.62/9. He out-FIPed Barnes by 2.64 to 3.33. This Astros lineup will punish the reliever who comes and walks guys. That's reliever's name is Matt Barnes. Also, if Pedroia and Nunez are both able to play (one at 2B and one at DH), I don't know why Hanley would start against RHP. If you want to give him a shot against Keuchel and he's willing/able to play 1B in place of Moreland, go ahead, but that's it. In fact, if they go with 12 P's, they should leave Hanley and his -.4 WAR (Fangraphs) and 93 wRC+ off the roster altogether. There exists no time frame this season where Austin Maddox walked batters less often than Matt Barnes. September? After coming off the DL, Matt Barnes faced 42 batters and walked 1. The first batter he faced. Austin Maddox faced 52 batters and walked 2. Barnes had a bit of a wild streak in August, when he walked 5 of 42 batters. Meanwhile, in games you weren't watching, Austin Maddox was walking 7 out of 40 AAA hitters. Since June 26, when Barnes changed his delivery, Barnes has walked 11 of 148 batters and Maddox has walked 16 of 145, and furthermore again, most of Maddox's hitters were AAA hitters. So ... until this month Maddox was walking 60% more batters than Barnes (15.1% vs. 9.4%) even though he was facing AAA hitters. He was called up and wonderfully and mysteriously stopped walking people. At the smae time, however, Barnes stopped walking people even more dramatically. Let's also note that with one exception--his two shutout innings in the 19-inning win-- Austin Maddox has not thrown a single pitch in MLB that had a serious chance of affecting the outcome of the game.
Good point about Maddox's BB rates in the minor leagues. He was at 4.7/9 in 49.1 IP at Portland and Pawtucket. But even with the walks, he had a pretty respectable WHIP of 1.155 and only two HRs allowed. You're being quite selective, though, in your Barnes-Maddox comparison. You point out Barnes' walk numbers since he changed his delivery in late June, but seem to want to ignore Maddox's late-season (albeit SSS) performance. Do we know that Maddox didn't slightly alter his delivery under the tutelage of ML coaching and/or the mentoring of ML pitchers? Or get some useful advice about mental approach? What we do know is that things starting clicking for him pretty dramatically. While Barnes's Sept. was a mixed bag, Maddox's was unambigiously excellent. Barnes turned into Dirty Matt with his K/W rate, which was a ridiculous 17 to 1 in 9.2 innings. But he gave up an OPS of .910. Sure, the .429 BABIP was a culprit but so were the three HR's. Maddox, on the other hand, gave up an OPS of .472 and had a WHIP of .805. Also, the magic new delivery did not produce a dramatically better second half for Barnes than his first half, so you might be overstating your case there. His K/W rate improved nicely from 2.33 to 4.86. But OPS was up 49 basis points, while the WHIP ticked down a bit. It's simply inaccurate to say that other than in the 19-inning game Maddox was a purely garbage time P for the RS (bolded). He entered in the bottom of the 6th in Tampa on Sept. 15 with the RS trailing 4-2 and pitched 1.1 innings, stranding the only runner he inherited. We know that was not a lost-cause game when he entered because the RS came back and won it. Two nights later, he entered in the 6th with the RS down by a run. Even his Sept. 25 appearance against the Jays at Fenway was material. The RS were down by three but it was only the 3rd inning. Maddox vs. Barnes is not a slam dunk either way, so I'm not calling your opinion nuts. But we've never seen Maddox perform anything other than excellent in his admittedly short ML career. We've all sweated through a fair number of Matt Barnes outings.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 4, 2017 22:51:58 GMT -5
Also, if Pedroia and Nunez are both able to play (one at 2B and one at DH), I don't know why Hanley would start against RHP. If you want to give him a shot against Keuchel and he's willing/able to play 1B in place of Moreland, go ahead, but that's it. In fact, if they go with 12 P's, they should leave Hanley and his -.4 WAR (Fangraphs) and 93 wRC+ off the roster altogether. Why would you use Hanley at DH over Nunez? Maybe because he was hurt all year, appears to be healthy now, has hit . 310 / .333 / .552 in 30 PA since 9/20. Which is pretty much how good he actually is. And yes, Nunez's numbers with the Sox are better than that, but he had a 1222 OPS in his first 11 games after switching leagues, and has hit .278 / .314 / .435 since then. What had he hit over his previous 2 2/3 seasons when we traded for him? .292 / .328 / .428. That's basically how good he actually is, and that's not as good as a healthy Hanley. It's a nice extra bat bench, a RH alternative to Holt. He'll get a chance to DH against Keuchel, and at that point we'll have two more games to see how Hanley looks. Your assessment of the relavance of Hanley's 30 PA from Sept. 20 on is terribly flawed. The slash numbers you cited (bolded) from that period were tied up in two games. One was the Sept. 20 game in Baltimore in which he went 3 for 5 with two doubles. The other was Sept. 27 against the Jays at Fenway, when he had a double and a HR in four ABs. He ended the Sept. 20 game at .242/.322/.428 and ended the season at an eerily similar .242/.320/.429. So, from Sept. 21 on, he was the same - nearly identical, in fact - bad DH he had been all year. (And that's with the nice Sept. 27 game in the mix.) Even aside from that, let's say the .885 OPS from Sept. 20 on had been more evenly distributed over the 11-day period. I would still contend that it meant he had a nice little run, not that he was a scorching hot hitter for a material amount of time. (Think late-season 2015 JBJ for scorching hot.) It's not at all surprising that a lousy 93 wRC+ guy could perform at an .885 OPS level for 11 days and would not mean he was suddenly healthy and a different player. I simply don't think Hanley's any good at this point as a hitter and we know he brings absolutely nothing in the field or on the bases. Nunez provides versatility in the field and, if healthy - and I know it's a BIG if - energy on the bases. Hanley vs. Nunie is a discussion worth having only if Nunie is still hurting. If he's healthy (fingers crossed), it's not a close call.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2017 10:17:02 GMT -5
Evan DrellichVerified account evandrellich 6m6 minutes ago There is a growing belief that the Red Sox will, eventually, announce their roster.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2017 10:21:36 GMT -5
Sean McAdam @sean_McAdam 2m2 minutes ago
ALDS Roster: Pitchers - Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Maddox, Smith, Price, Reed, Kimbrel
Sean McAdam @sean_McAdam 1m1 minute ago
Red Sox position players: Leon, Vazquez, Bogaerts, Devers, Holt, Marrero, Moreland, Nunez, Pedroia, Hanley, Benintendi, Betts, JBJ, Davis
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 5, 2017 10:26:08 GMT -5
And so - Bravo for Maddox and Smith and nixing Barnes and Hembree.
And Bravo for leaving Young off. Carrying Holt and Marrero both - versatility, defense, but hopefully won't be called upon for their hitting skills!
Seems like a common sense roster that reflects recent performances.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2017 10:39:56 GMT -5
Maddox over Barnes basically ignores, like, six years of performance in exchange for about 45 batters. That's a straight new-toy pick. Ah well.
Cool with Marrero making it, though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2017 10:56:49 GMT -5
For me, Maddox was a repertoire over stats decision.
I think they have the right 25 but I'd substitute Scott for Maddox in the next series against either the Indians or Yankees.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2017 11:09:00 GMT -5
Rob BradfordVerified account @bradfo 8m8 minutes ago
Early indications for Red Sox lineup: Nunez will DH, hitting second with Hanley starting on the bench. Nothing officially released yet . . . I also saw someplace that Xander will likely lead off.
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