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2018 Red Sox roster building
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Post by Guidas on Oct 10, 2017 15:49:35 GMT -5
A request, before we get there: let's try not to get too pie-in-the-sky on the projected trades and such. If there's no indication that a team is going to trade a guy, let's not go there. These things can very easily slip into a "what will it take to trade for this guy?" discussion. Also, try not to be repetitive. Starting to see some ideas being repeated by the same posters multiple times already. If nobody responds, just move on. Anyway, since it was mentioned above and I was stunned to see it when checking: the Phillies literally have one player under contract for next season who isn't either arb or pre-arb. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-SL03sk6dbfH9M5B2LlTTIsWoZ1w5O25K57qmQOkAG4/pubhtmlTanking - it’s the new MoneyBall. See Cubs, Chcago; Astros, Houston; Twins, Minnesota; Phillies, Philadelphia; White Sox, Chicago; et al.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 10, 2017 16:22:51 GMT -5
Moreland may also need knee surgery along with Pedroia and obviously Nunez.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 10, 2017 16:24:12 GMT -5
A request, before we get there: let's try not to get too pie-in-the-sky on the projected trades and such. If there's no indication that a team is going to trade a guy, let's not go there. These things can very easily slip into a "what will it take to trade for this guy?" discussion. Also, try not to be repetitive. Starting to see some ideas being repeated by the same posters multiple times already. If nobody responds, just move on. Anyway, since it was mentioned above and I was stunned to see it when checking: the Phillies literally have one player under contract for next season who isn't either arb or pre-arb. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-SL03sk6dbfH9M5B2LlTTIsWoZ1w5O25K57qmQOkAG4/pubhtmlTanking - it’s the new MoneyBall. See Cubs, Chcago; Astros, Houston; Twins, Minnesota; Phillies, Philadelphia; White Sox, Chicago; et al. Biggest mistake made by Cherington was not tanking in 2014 and just loading up on prospects for Lackey, Lester and everyone else that anyone wanted. I have a feeling that edict came from above though. They should have done what the Yankees did the last two seasons.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 10, 2017 16:51:17 GMT -5
Tanking - it’s the new MoneyBall. See Cubs, Chcago; Astros, Houston; Twins, Minnesota; Phillies, Philadelphia; White Sox, Chicago; et al. Biggest mistake made by Cherington was not tanking in 2014 and just loading up on prospects for Lackey, Lester and everyone else that anyone wanted. I have a feeling that edict came from above though. They should have done what the Yankees did the last two seasons. From above and from the fans, same with the signings of Hanley and Pablo. I truly believe he wouldn't have made those moves in a vacuum.
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Post by prangerx on Oct 10, 2017 16:57:12 GMT -5
Tanking - it’s the new MoneyBall. See Cubs, Chcago; Astros, Houston; Twins, Minnesota; Phillies, Philadelphia; White Sox, Chicago; et al. Biggest mistake made by Cherington was not tanking in 2014 and just loading up on prospects for Lackey, Lester and everyone else that anyone wanted. I have a feeling that edict came from above though. They should have done what the Yankees did the last two seasons. Ownership probably wouldn't have let him. Larry was still in charge. I am all for resigning Nunez if they can. With Pedoria's health in question he could be very useful. Plus he is an awesome club house guy.
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Post by jdb on Oct 10, 2017 17:33:06 GMT -5
Would Khris Davis solve a lot of our power issues? I think he'd be cheaper but I wouldn't sign him unless you thought Hanley couldn't play a good deal of 1B. Also I thought last offseason Neil Walker could be a candidate to switch to 1B. He could provide Pedroia insurance as well.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 10, 2017 18:03:40 GMT -5
A discussion of the RS off-season has to start with the $$$. If we assume that they managed to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold this year, then they can sign a FA to a contract of $50 million or more and forfeit their second pick in next June's draft and $500,000 in the international pool. I think D-Dom and ownership will find those penalties acceptable for the right FA.
But I don't think they'll be willing to go to $237 million. That would put them $40 million over the 2018 cap, exposing them to a $42.5 percent tax and pushing their 2019 pick back 10 spots.
So, where does the RS payroll stand? The information on public sites is all over the place. But I think the working assumption this site has been that they managed to stay below the $195 million threshold in 2017.
And we know they have about $19 million coming off the books: Young, $6.5 million; Reed, $2.6 million (pro rated for the RS paid him); R. Davis, $1 million (pro rated); Moreland $5.5 million; Abad, $2 million; and Nunez, $1.5 million (pro rated).
That leaves them in the area of $175 million 2018. Throw in $15 million for arb guys and you're up to about $190 million and a few million more for benefits.
It doesn't seem to me that it's possible to do the two things I'd like to do this winter: sign a big bat (JDM) and lock up Mookie. So, I'd like to see them go for the bat and focus on Mookie next off-season when Hanley's albatross comes off the books.
They also need to find a 1B (I'd be Ok with Moreland), someone who can play a lot of games at 2B, and a sixth starter type. Then they need to make the kind of wise, low-cost signings that good organizations make to round out the bench. We need a RHH OF (Brentz?) and a backup IF to replace Holt. I'd like to find a way to keep Nunez for the 2B role and his knee explosion in ALDS game 1 might help by driving down demand for him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 10, 2017 19:19:10 GMT -5
One strategy I would try to implement would be to make sure Hanley didnt reach the 1050 ab for 17/18 so as to dump the last yr of the contract. Unless of course he is raking but the chances of that are slim.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 10, 2017 20:42:01 GMT -5
Biggest mistake made by Cherington was not tanking in 2014 and just loading up on prospects for Lackey, Lester and everyone else that anyone wanted. I have a feeling that edict came from above though. They should have done what the Yankees did the last two seasons. From above and from the fans, same with the signings of Hanley and Pablo. I truly believe he wouldn't have made those moves in a vacuum. Not saying you're wrong, but it's so insanely dumb to make any moves based on what will appeal to the fans. It's like giving a 5-year-old 20 candy bars just because they demand them - you're not doing yourself or them any favors. On a totally unrelated note, I don't know why people are so ready to trade JBJ. He was a cheap 2 WAR player this year even with lousy offense. Regression is his friend for next year; you'd be selling low. And his defense is so damn fun to watch.
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Post by trajanacc on Oct 10, 2017 21:02:46 GMT -5
There's a lot of selling low sentiment in this thread--if you had a bad year, especially a bad playoffs, get outta here. Wouldn't be smart to trade the Bradleys and Porcellos for less than they are actually worth. Those guys will likely bounce back.
If anything you would wanna try to sell high on a guy like Pomeranz, although he's on a very team-friendly contract.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2017 21:18:12 GMT -5
Although I don't think 95 percent of what Jiant proposed is going to happen, I think Brian Dozier should be a target for Boston too. I personally think that Pedrioa should see 60 percent DH time at this point. Maybe even Dozier could put on a first base mit and try out first base for flexibility purposes. I'm really worried about Pedrioa's knee moving forward. That last surgery on his knee this past off-season made Pedrioa a shell of himself. He's always been banged up, but his knees are shot now. Pedroia at DH is a waste at this point in his career. I agree it's a waste but I'm not sure the guy can actually physically do it anymore. You know?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2017 21:22:21 GMT -5
A waiver claim that turns into a 30 homerun bat? I think that's happened twice in the past 15-20 years in Bautista and Martinez, maybe I'm wrong there's been more. I agree it would be awesome, but you're better off just playing the lottery with those odds. Fine, then pay under market value for the next Scherzer or Cabrera. IDC I'd love a savage deal from Dombrowski. So far the Sox have gotten only two of those type of deals in Pomeranz and maybe Smith if he holds up. Maybe by some miracle that the Sox add Brentz and he turns into that. Who knows? Probably not and the Sox just don't even add him to the 40 man roster, as mentioned in the Brentz thread. I wasn't trying to be argumentive or anything. Just pointing out that you have to get really lucky almost to find that much value in a deal or a player for such little cost. No one is nontendering Ortiz anymore.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2017 21:28:48 GMT -5
Pedroia's value is in being one of the better defensive 2B in the league combined with an above-average to better hitter. If his defense slips and he can't stay on the field at 2B, he's not going to be able to add value at DH. I think Pedrioa will always play above average defense at 2B with a good enough bat. Between the glove to hand transfer, and just enough range. Like I mentioned with the post with Jim, I don't know how many games he has in him each season. As Dombrowski was quoted and I'm paraphrasing, "this knee problem will be here for the rest of his career and it's going to have to be managed." The Sox almost need a second baseman that can play 60-80 games a year to make sure Pedrioa lasts to the end. That's why I brought up the idea of Dozier. There's going to be other options though, like Kinsler or Eduardo Nunez (free agency). Maybe the Sox feel Marco Hernandez can fill that role. Who knows how they feel about him after the season ending injury?
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 10, 2017 21:40:58 GMT -5
There's a lot of selling low sentiment in this thread--if you had a bad year, especially a bad playoffs, get outta here. Wouldn't be smart to trade the Bradleys and Porcellos for less than they are actually worth. Those guys will likely bounce back. If anything you would wanna try to sell high on a guy like Pomeranz, although he's on a very team-friendly contract. 9 I agree that JBJ and Porcello's stock are low, based off what they did last year, but in honesty I think last year was an outlier for Porcello and if you think he has another one like that great, but Id be suprised. I can see a bit better than this year, but mostly the same. JBJ is a solid player, and he may have another 2016, or he may just be a .250, 20hr hitter with great defense... thats a valuable player, but not untouchable. Both had their career years, so far in their career, last year. Could they have better years than than 2017? Sure. Another 2016? I say unlikely. For me, the reason I would look to trade Porcello is because he makes 20 million and I think that will help us sign a bat. Pomeranz will probably make about 9 million after arb this year. Trading Porcello saves 11 million more. I would be ok trading Pomeranz instead if he'd fetch way more, but whoever wishes to trade for him only gets one year vs two of Porcello, and I was thinking the other team would want him. If the return is similar, save the 11 million. Just my opinion.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 10, 2017 21:48:08 GMT -5
That's why I brought up the idea of Dozier.
Yup.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2017 22:04:23 GMT -5
There's a lot of selling low sentiment in this thread--if you had a bad year, especially a bad playoffs, get outta here. Wouldn't be smart to trade the Bradleys and Porcellos for less than they are actually worth. Those guys will likely bounce back. If anything you would wanna try to sell high on a guy like Pomeranz, although he's on a very team-friendly contract. Pomeranz is on a one year deal now. Unless someone gives you a top prospect or a really good young player, you're better off extending him if you feel comfortable doing that. The reason you trade Porcello is to open up payroll space, it'd be great to get something back and I still do think you get something back if you trade Porcello. I know, a little condescending that you're trying to trade one 20 million dollar pitcher just to sign another one, but Pomeranz is a more effective pitcher than Porcello. When Pomeranz is healthy, he has shown that he doesn't need to rely on good good Babip rates, unlike Porcello who needs a really good Babip to be good.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2017 22:09:41 GMT -5
That's why I brought up the idea of Dozier. Yup. Sorry didn't mean to steal your thunder. I followed up with your idea of Dozier.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 10, 2017 22:17:06 GMT -5
I think that it is going to be quite an offseason tossing possibilities, but also watching moves. I've been doing quite a bit of reading, listening to Boston sports radio - few think Farrell will survive, but there are lots of calls to at least partially blow up the team because Cleveland, Houston and perhaps New York are now ahead of Boston (according to numerous opinions). Mookie, Devers and Sale seem to be the only iron-clad keepers - most other names are being tossed as possible trade bait for the right players.
So we may not be playing baseball, but we are sure going to be discussing baseball!
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 10, 2017 22:36:25 GMT -5
That's why I brought up the idea of Dozier. Yup. Sorry didn't mean to steal your thunder. I followed up with your idea of Dozier. 😎👍
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 10, 2017 22:39:31 GMT -5
I think that it is going to be quite an offseason tossing possibilities, but also watching moves. I've been doing quite a bit of reading, listening to Boston sports radio - few think Farrell will survive, but there are lots of calls to at least partially blow up the team because Cleveland, Houston and perhaps New York are now ahead of Boston (according to numerous opinions). Mookie, Devers and Sale seem to be the only iron-clad keepers - most other names are being tossed as possible trade bait for the right players. So we may not be playing baseball, but we are sure going to be discussing baseball! That goes to show you how much overreaction from fans there is in Boston, as generally is the case. I sure hope our front office doesn't share the same thinking with these fans, although I gotta admit I feel uneasy with dombrowski as the helm.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 10, 2017 22:41:47 GMT -5
I think that it is going to be quite an offseason tossing possibilities, but also watching moves. I've been doing quite a bit of reading, listening to Boston sports radio - few think Farrell will survive, but there are lots of calls to at least partially blow up the team because Cleveland, Houston and perhaps New York are now ahead of Boston (according to numerous opinions). Mookie, Devers and Sale seem to be the only iron-clad keepers - most other names are being tossed as possible trade bait for the right players. So we may not be playing baseball, but we are sure going to be discussing baseball! That goes to show you how much overreaction from fans there is in Boston, as generally is the case. I sure hope our front office doesn't share the same thinking with these fans, although I gotta admit I feel uneasy with dombrowski as the helm. Far more than fans - most analysts as well. My view is that we need to expect at least some of the unexpected.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 10, 2017 23:09:57 GMT -5
OK - my predictions for 2018 (crystal ball...and probably some crazy decisions here - but what the heck - gotta start somewhere!)
The biggies are my thoughts that Bradley, Porcello, Barnes, Moreland and Reed will not be with the team (and there will be a new manager)
Breaking it down
Gone - Moreland, Bradley, Leon, Holt, Young, Davis, Rutledge
Rehabbing/reduced playing time - Pedroia (will decide on surgery)
Starters - Bogaerts Devers Benintendi Betts Vazquez Ramirez (not sure about Hanley, really - which one will show up if he stays? And who would take him?)
Back ups - Swihart, Marrero, Lin, Travis, Hernandez (probably not all of these though)
New Center fielder (or right fielder - move Mookie to center), second base (perhaps Nunez if he signs, depending upon Pedey's health), first base - somewhere in here 1-2 big bats
pitching - gone - Porcello, Barnes, Reed, Fister, Abad, Hembree, Boyer, Elias, Ross, Owens, Taylor
Starters - Sale, Pomeranz, Price, ERod (perhaps - could also be trade bait) - Johnson (??) or Velazquez (??) or Wright (??) Pen - Kimbrel, Kelly, Scott, Maddox, Smith, Thornburg, Workman
Lots of moving parts here. Key is adding bats.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2017 23:49:57 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 11, 2017 0:59:00 GMT -5
Moreland may also need knee surgery along with Pedroia and obviously Nunez. First I heard about Moreland's knee. That is not good news, unless it is just cleaning out a miniscuse or something athroscopically. I thought it was just broken toes that, by his recent performance, seemed to be about healed. I actually think, assuming his health, that he would be overall about as valuable as Hosmer for 25% of the cost until the farm produced a replacement.
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Post by Canseco on Oct 11, 2017 5:27:48 GMT -5
We'd be nuts to move away from JBJ. The guy has some pop in his bat--albeit an inconsistent bat--and plays beyond exceptional defense at a premium position. It isn't possible to have a roster full of superstars, and Bradley, to me, is a winning player. I'd extend him... not trade him.
It's easy to feel dejected, but this core is still very young. We are winning division titles as that core grows, as opposed to other teams that usually wallow in mediocrity (or worse) until the guys come of age. My hope is that the front office will try to fill in with reasonably-priced supporting cast members while allowing the farm to replenish. No whacky, rash, knee jerk decisions.
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