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2018 Red Sox roster building
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 30, 2018 17:24:41 GMT -5
Darvish has a ton of miles on that arm between MLB and Japan. I'm not sure if that makes him even more of a risk to another arm injury down the road...
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 30, 2018 17:33:43 GMT -5
I think they stand fairly pat if they don't sign JDM (I still think there's an extremely high chance they sign him).
They roll with Hanley/Moreland at 1B/DH and see how it goes. You've got Swihart/Brentz/Travis who can hopefully hit and potentially play 1B/DH/OF if needed. They've got pieces if they want to make a mid-season move if need be, though it would be nice to stop depleting the farm, which is why I still think they end up overspending (and I'm fine with that) on JDM.
I think the rotation is fine, and the depth is not spectacular but not disastrous. I think Johnson, Beeks, Elias, and Rodriguez/Wright is sufficient to begin the year. I wouldn't be stunned if they picked up another veteran SP who was willing to play for Pawtucket though.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 30, 2018 20:14:20 GMT -5
Now... I chose Pomeranz to be slightly cheeky, because I know that we Sox fans love him, but he also drives us crazy. But.... Darvish marginally had better peripherals: the innings were near even; his Ks were higher, but, well, so what? 9 or 10 -- it is good. And Ks only mean something if you are doing the other things. Pom had a much better ERA+ and better bWAR (for sabermetricists); better ERA and W/L (for traditionalists). Further: if you look at Darvish's numbers broken down AL/NL, his NL numbers help him a good deal. I am not sure I am confident that his Dodger numbers translate to Fenway. Edit: by the way... the FIP? Darvish was literally 0.01 better. That is, I grant, technically better. Finally, Pom most certainly did have a better 2016 -- again, with all sorts of caveats that -- were I not being somewhat cheeky about this choice of comp, I'd acknowledge -- he had a lower ERA (though admittedly higher adjusted) many more innings (again -- a reason for that -- but a reason that factors into a big contract), much higher WAR, more wins, etc. etc. etc. Again, Darvish is theoretically a better pitcher, and he is in an ideal one game performance likely light years better. But he hasn't been for a years for reasons mostly beyond his control. That is the guy you'd be buying, though. I think you're half trolling at this point and know that Darvish is in a tier above Pomeranz. But I'll point out that bWAR uses RA+ which is ERA+ but with unearned runs included. So you're essentially listing the same stat twice. Those stats are good at showing good past performance but I find less useful for predicting future success and who we would want as a pitcher going forward. fWAR (with FIP) and xFIP like Darvish much more. The most recent rotographs ranking has Darvish as the 13th best starting pitcher and Pomeranz as the 50th best starting pitcher for fantasy. While steamer predicts a 3.6 fWAR for Darvish next year and only 2.1 for Pomeranz (which I think is a bit low). Darvish us an excellent pitcher - but he's getting old.
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Post by 75tillnow on Jan 30, 2018 20:18:18 GMT -5
Looks like the Dbacks are about to sign Avila to something like 2/16. Does that take them out of the JD sweepstakes? I would assume so. And thus....who remains as competitors to the Sox for JD? I can't think of anyone. Not the Gmen or Toronto.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 30, 2018 20:37:04 GMT -5
I really think in the end JDM will be our DH and the thought of Darvish isn't a bad one but that is not where I want to see the Sox invest big dollars over the next 5 years.
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Post by manfred on Jan 30, 2018 21:39:51 GMT -5
Now... I chose Pomeranz to be slightly cheeky, because I know that we Sox fans love him, but he also drives us crazy. But.... Darvish marginally had better peripherals: the innings were near even; his Ks were higher, but, well, so what? 9 or 10 -- it is good. And Ks only mean something if you are doing the other things. Pom had a much better ERA+ and better bWAR (for sabermetricists); better ERA and W/L (for traditionalists). Further: if you look at Darvish's numbers broken down AL/NL, his NL numbers help him a good deal. I am not sure I am confident that his Dodger numbers translate to Fenway. Edit: by the way... the FIP? Darvish was literally 0.01 better. That is, I grant, technically better. Finally, Pom most certainly did have a better 2016 -- again, with all sorts of caveats that -- were I not being somewhat cheeky about this choice of comp, I'd acknowledge -- he had a lower ERA (though admittedly higher adjusted) many more innings (again -- a reason for that -- but a reason that factors into a big contract), much higher WAR, more wins, etc. etc. etc. Again, Darvish is theoretically a better pitcher, and he is in an ideal one game performance likely light years better. But he hasn't been for a years for reasons mostly beyond his control. That is the guy you'd be buying, though. I think you're half trolling at this point and know that Darvish is in a tier above Pomeranz. But I'll point out that bWAR uses RA+ which is ERA+ but with unearned runs included. So you're essentially listing the same stat twice. Those stats are good at showing good past performance but I find less useful for predicting future success and who we would want as a pitcher going forward. fWAR (with FIP) and xFIP like Darvish much more. The most recent rotographs ranking has Darvish as the 13th best starting pitcher and Pomeranz as the 50th best starting pitcher for fantasy. While steamer predicts a 3.6 fWAR for Darvish next year and only 2.1 for Pomeranz (which I think is a bit low). Darvish us an excellent pitcher - but he's getting old. I’m not trolling... I did say I was making an intentionally extreme case. I am talking about Darvish for 5 years at ace money. The point I was making was that Darvish’s best came before a catastrophic injury. He has, as I was pointing out, not shown ace form since he came back. He has spent time on the DL both seasons. And he turns 32 this season. Might he have a big return to form? No doubt. But one that last until he’s 36, 37? Maaaaayyyybeee. But I’d rather not gamble. Pomeranz was better last year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 31, 2018 2:29:57 GMT -5
John Tomase @jtomase 3h3 hours ago More According to a Boston Globe report, the Red Sox and Mookie Betts held their arbitration hearing today in Phoenix. Results are expected by tomorrow.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 31, 2018 2:44:40 GMT -5
I’m not trolling... I did say I was making an intentionally extreme case. I am talking about Darvish for 5 years at ace money. The point I was making was that Darvish’s best came before a catastrophic injury. He has, as I was pointing out, not shown ace form since he came back. He has spent time on the DL both seasons. And he turns 32 this season. Might he have a big return to form? No doubt. But one that last until he’s 36, 37? Maaaaayyyybeee. But I’d rather not gamble. Pomeranz was better last year. You are welcome to that opinion. Just hope you aren't Pomeranz agent. Would rather have JDM if he settles.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 31, 2018 2:57:52 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 31, 2018 3:51:06 GMT -5
I’m not trolling... I did say I was making an intentionally extreme case. I am talking about Darvish for 5 years at ace money. The point I was making was that Darvish’s best came before a catastrophic injury. He has, as I was pointing out, not shown ace form since he came back. He has spent time on the DL both seasons. And he turns 32 this season. Might he have a big return to form? No doubt. But one that last until he’s 36, 37? Maaaaayyyybeee. But I’d rather not gamble. Pomeranz was better last year. You are welcome to that opinion. Just hope you aren't Pomeranz agent. Would rather have JDM if he settles. I'd take Pomeranz on a Porcello contract or maybe a 5 year deal. I do love meself some Pomeranz too. I don't think he should command the type of dollars that Darvish commands and I think Darvish is a tad better, but Pomeranz is a great fit here. Out of all the expiring contracts, I hope he's one of the priorities to resign personally. Pomeranz doesn't have a lot of miles on that arm and he's younger than Darvish is now and will be a year from now in free agency. He had the arm scare a year and a half ago, but pitched 180 innings last year. Unless he goes down this year with a major arm injury, the Sox should resign him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 31, 2018 4:19:08 GMT -5
If the Sox sign J.D. Martinez, I don't see how Rusney can join the team. I feel bad for the guy, but it's not like he's going refuse 11 million a year because he's in AAA. At some point, hopefully some team takes 80-90 percent of the contract and gives him a shot again in CF. He could have a good amount of value there if given the chance in CF. Maybe that place is here in a year from now if the Sox shopped JBJ for pitching or a young short stop with control (Xander replacement).
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Post by manfred on Jan 31, 2018 13:26:43 GMT -5
I think it’s ok to post links, yes?: www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/11/yu-darvish-free-agency-valueJaffe has interesting data to support either side of the Darvish debate. I suppose it comes down to what sort of gamble you are willing to make. To me, given that the Sox are not weak at the front line of the rotation, it seems like an unecessary risk. Not exactly related, but I was just surfing around the internet and passed a headline on Stanton and Judge and felt a bit faint. Sox are going to have to score a lot more runs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 31, 2018 13:28:00 GMT -5
Mookie won his arbitration case. Will make 10.5M.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 31, 2018 13:28:47 GMT -5
Mookie won his arbitration case. Will make 10.5M. He deserves it. Good for him.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 13:31:27 GMT -5
Mookie won his arbitration case. Will make 10.5M. Good for him, mediocre news for Boston. It makes his ARB2/3 years even more expensive. Even if he doesn't perform at an MVP type level, he'll probably go step by step near records with Kris Bryant. Him winning this makes it make more sense for the Sox to sign him long term and buy out his last two arbitration years, but I'm not sure they'll do it. I think they might want to keep his AAV down for the next few years so they have a chance (if wanted or possible) to reset the tax, though I'm not sure that's even close to feasible. Otherwise, extend him now, maybe push the cash towards the latter half of the contract, just bring up the AAV and pay the additional 20% tax on his contract
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2018 13:38:28 GMT -5
So now that Mookie's arbitration case is over and the Red Sox know where every dime nickel and penny are they should be able to make some type of move now for that power hitter they need or whatever their plans are
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Post by marrcus on Jan 31, 2018 13:42:24 GMT -5
I'm not sure they'll do it.
IMO the chances are close to nil. They aren't going to overwhelm him and anything less won't get it done.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 31, 2018 13:49:02 GMT -5
Question: Why does everyone always refer to it as the Red Sox being willing/not being willing to sign Betts long term? Every actual report has been that he wants to go year-to-year, and that they did try to engage him once and he declined.
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 31, 2018 13:49:48 GMT -5
Spotrac now has the Red Sox’s total contracts to $201,556,428 accounting for Mookie’s well-deserved win in his arbitration hearing. I can’t remember what the number we have to stay under is exactly. $232 mil? $237 mil? Something like that. But as giltg said, there’s a clearer idea of what the payroll looks like this year now.
Amazingly, we’re paying a combined $21,003,389 to Pablo Sandoval, Allen Craig, and Manny Ramirez of all people.
Edit: Manny’s isn’t attributed to the active payroll. Just a deferred payment.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 31, 2018 13:52:06 GMT -5
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 14:03:58 GMT -5
I'm not sure they'll do it.IMO the chances are close to nil. They aren't going to overwhelm him and anything less won't get it done. This is what I'm thinking. I don't think a deal happens unless they blow him away, which I think is unlikely. But now that he's set to likely go 10/17/25 roughly in arbitration, they could be more willing to blow him away, knowing they've got these payments coming up anyways.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 31, 2018 14:10:27 GMT -5
The Mookie news is brutal for the team. Not only will this cost them at least 13.5m over the next 3 years, but they will have to cut salary to sign JDM and stay under the 237m threshold. Reduces leverage for the team on the longshot of an extension too.
Bad miscalculation by DD
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 31, 2018 14:17:59 GMT -5
So who creates that and what accounts for the difference between spotrac and the other two? I like the google sheet one though. Very good. *My bad, I meant the first one.*
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 31, 2018 14:23:53 GMT -5
The Mookie news is brutal for the team. Not only will this cost them at least 13.5m over the next 3 years, but they will have to cut salary to sign JDM and stay under the 237m threshold. Reduces leverage for the team on the longshot of an extension too. Bad miscalculation by DD Holt is probably the guy the Sox will trade to shed some salary. A Eduardo Nunez resigning looks improbable now though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 31, 2018 14:29:46 GMT -5
So who creates that and what accounts for the difference between spotrac and the other two? I like the google sheet one though. Very good. The first one is @redsoxpayroll on Twitter, who's done a good job tracking this stuff since I learned of the account last year. Second is Cot's. Both are google sheets so not sure which you're referring to. I believe Sportrac only tracks payroll. CBT is based on AAV. So, for example, Pedroia is making $16M this year but his contract's AAV is $13.75M.
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