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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 2, 2018 20:15:25 GMT -5
Time to bring his name up. The Sox are dead last in OPS at the catching position and I think Vazquez is the most overrated player on this team. Prospects/Players I'd give up-
Chavis Vazquez/Swihart (or both) Darwinzon Hernandez Travis/Ockimey Brian Johnson
Hopefully that is enough to get it done.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2018 7:03:56 GMT -5
That is a bit of an overpay with Chavis, and Johnson is the only lefty in their pen. I would give:
Swihart/Leon Ockimey Hembree Shawaryn Shepherd
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2018 7:17:05 GMT -5
That is a bit of an overpay with Chavis, and Johnson is the only lefty in their pen. I would give: Swihart/Leon Ockimey Hembree Shawaryn Shepherd That isn't going to get a deal done. If you want Realmuto, who is one of the 3 or 5 best offensive catchers in the sport, it's going to hurt. Realmuto also has 2 more years of control after this season and has been getting better each year offensively. He also makes 3.5 million this year and the Sox could easily take his salary and stay under the 237 mark for this season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 3, 2018 8:20:36 GMT -5
That is a bit of an overpay with Chavis, and Johnson is the only lefty in their pen. I would give: Swihart/Leon Ockimey Hembree Shawaryn Shepherd I wouldn't hang onto Johnson because he's the only lefty in the pen - that makes no sense. He's not a lefty reliever. He's a backend rotation starter who might have some value for the Marlins. Poyner will eventually be a lefty option for the Sox and if Beeks can't crack the rotation he'd also be a lefty candidate - although I do think at the rate he's going he could see the rotation over the next couple of years or two if he keeps being an effective pitcher. The bottom line with this deal is do the Marlins think Swihart is a viable young catcher? If they do and are willing to give him the time, then there's a deal there that could be had, but the deal will hurt. I can see them wanting Houck or Mata, not Shepherd. I could really see them wanting Beeks. Ockimey is basically a DH - not sure the Marlins would want him. Maybe Sam Travis. Sandy Leon is useless to a team like the Marlins. I can see them liking Shawaryn - perhaps Kutter Crawford would be of interest. An arm like Hernandez could intrigue them. Like Pedro said, it's going to be a deal you have to overpay because Realmuto does have a couple of years left and he is cheap and a good player. I think something like: Swihart Two of Shawayn, Hernandez, and Crawford Sam Travis or perhaps the Marlins like Castellanos A reliever like Hembree or a ready starter like Johnson. If the Marlins don't like Swihart as a catcher, then I don't really see how a deal comes together, but if they do, then there might be something to work with.
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Post by ctfisher on May 3, 2018 9:09:44 GMT -5
Given the way the offense has performed so far with no pedroia and the fact that there's almost no way Vazquez/Leon and JBJ hit this poorly, it seems like a bad idea to deal away 5 prospects for one guy who probably isn't going to move the needle between this team being really good and great. If you could build a deal around Chavis and a solid relief arm, I'd do it, but they probably wouldn't given the question marks around Chavis. Certainly for now it seems way better to stand pat, give the bottom of the order more time to get on track, and re-evaluate in a couple months.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2018 9:24:42 GMT -5
Catcher is the one area of weakness though.
Even the bullpen is looking more promising with Thornburg looking awesome in AAA and that might not even be a great need at the all-star break. Perhaps a left handed reliever or something in July maybe, but Poyner is pretty good if they just want to call him up.
Outside of Realmuto and the catching spot, I don't see where the Sox can improve at the trade deadline.
I also disagree that a Realmuto move wouldn't move the needle much. The Leon/Vazquez platoon is worth roughly 2 wins per season (around 2 bWAR) and that's probably where it'll end up if the Sox kept both all season.
Realmuto *already* has been worth 1 bWar this season through the first month of the season. You're probably talking about a player that will project to have around 4-4.5 bWAR season. If the Sox traded for him around July, he could bring 1.5-2 wins alone by himself after the all-star break.
The difference between the division last year was 2 games. The difference between the division so far this season is 2 games. This division is *most likely* going to be tight all year. Any significant gain where you're adding 1-2 wins isn't miniscule. It's substantial.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2018 16:54:43 GMT -5
That is a bit of an overpay with Chavis, and Johnson is the only lefty in their pen. I would give: Swihart/Leon Ockimey Hembree Shawaryn Shepherd I wouldn't hang onto Johnson because he's the only lefty in the pen - that makes no sense. He's not a lefty reliever. He's a backend rotation starter who might have some value for the Marlins. Poyner will eventually be a lefty option for the Sox and if Beeks can't crack the rotation he'd also be a lefty candidate - although I do think at the rate he's going he could see the rotation over the next couple of years or two if he keeps being an effective pitcher. The bottom line with this deal is do the Marlins think Swihart is a viable young catcher? If they do and are willing to give him the time, then there's a deal there that could be had, but the deal will hurt. I can see them wanting Houck or Mata, not Shepherd. I could really see them wanting Beeks. Ockimey is basically a DH - not sure the Marlins would want him. Maybe Sam Travis. Sandy Leon is useless to a team like the Marlins. I can see them liking Shawaryn - perhaps Kutter Crawford would be of interest. An arm like Hernandez could intrigue them. Like Pedro said, it's going to be a deal you have to overpay because Realmuto does have a couple of years left and he is cheap and a good player. I think something like: Swihart Two of Shawayn, Hernandez, and Crawford Sam Travis or perhaps the Marlins like Castellanos A reliever like Hembree or a ready starter like Johnson. If the Marlins don't like Swihart as a catcher, then I don't really see how a deal comes together, but if they do, then there might be something to work with. I would go for Swihart, Shawaryn, Hernandez, Travis, and Hembree for Realmuto.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on May 3, 2018 18:49:55 GMT -5
"Any player is available for the right deal." - Captain Obvious As to whether Boston would want/need Realmuto, I enjoy reading the "what ifs" from this site. I don't sense that Boston feels it "has" to make a deal. That might well change as the months go by. I'm more inclined to still see what Swihart could do. I'm bummed at what Boston has done with his development.
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Post by Addam603 on May 4, 2018 14:29:32 GMT -5
I always see so many complaints about 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 deals and now there are 5 for 1 deals being talked about? Realmuto is good, but I wouldn’t put him at 5 for 1 good, especially if multiple of those guys are viable major leaguers.
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Post by Smittyw on May 4, 2018 14:46:49 GMT -5
I always see so many complaints about 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 deals and now there are 5 for 1 deals being talked about? Realmuto is good, but I wouldn’t put him at 5 for 1 good, especially if multiple of those guys are viable major leaguers. Particularly when you look back on the comments about the Vazquez extension, beginning around here... forum.soxprospects.com/thread/4331/2018-spring-training-discussion?page=27I know CV has had something of a brutal start, but it feels like we're bigly overreacting here.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2018 15:06:36 GMT -5
I always see so many complaints about 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 deals and now there are 5 for 1 deals being talked about? Realmuto is good, but I wouldn’t put him at 5 for 1 good, especially if multiple of those guys are viable major leaguers. Particularly when you look back on the comments about the Vazquez extension, beginning around here... forum.soxprospects.com/thread/4331/2018-spring-training-discussion?page=27I know CV has had something of a brutal start, but it feels like we're bigly overreacting here. It's not overreacting. I don't think CV is that good of a baseball player. He's average to below average. His bWAR reflects it. I was calling for Realmuto last year too, but Vazquez was hitting at a high clip due to a .348 BABIP. He has zero power and he has a really bad career walk rate. For all his supposed "defensive prowess," he really is below average at blocking balls in the dirt too. Christian Vazquez excels in 2 areas. Catch framing and his arm. All of these things are antiquated because the league and it's umpires are as terrible as ever. Not only that, but his arm doesn't mean as much because the league doesn't run as much as it once did. His contract is okay, probably a little bit of a overpay, but Vazquez is probably best when he plays less, not more. He just isn't that good. He is okay, a great backup catcher imo. Edit- I can't stress this enough, if you replace Vazquez with Realmuto, you're making a massive improvement to your roster at the catching position.
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Post by James Dunne on May 5, 2018 0:40:06 GMT -5
Christian Vazquez excels in 2 areas. Catch framing and his arm. All of these things are antiquated because the league and it's umpires are as terrible as ever. This is nonsense. Pitch framing as a skill is entirely dependent on the umpires being bad, so if his pitch framing is antiquated it's a sign the umpires are doing a better job. It means he's not stealing balls anymore. If his framing numbers aren't as good it means he's gotten worse at it or the umpires are better at identifying it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 5, 2018 3:16:13 GMT -5
Christian Vazquez excels in 2 areas. Catch framing and his arm. All of these things are antiquated because the league and it's umpires are as terrible as ever. This is nonsense. Pitch framing as a skill is entirely dependent on the umpires being bad, so if his pitch framing is antiquated it's a sign the umpires are doing a better job. It means he's not stealing balls anymore. If his framing numbers aren't as good it means he's gotten worse at it or the umpires are better at identifying it. It's not nonsense. Todd Frazier has even called out the league and it's umpires being as terrible as ever this year. Some are missing strikes. Some are randomly calling balls strikes. It's mostly related to how good they are at identifying a quality strikezone. Vazquez has stolen a few strikes, but he also been not getting calls too. David Price's last start being example number one. Vazquez framed a pitch for strike three to end the 4th inning, didn't get the call. They gave up 5 more runs after that missed strike 3 call. He framed it well, but didn't get the call. 4 innings later the Rangers threw a pitch a inch lower to a Sox batter, and got the call. The Sox dugout flipped out for good reason. Look I'm not going to argue about the theory of pitch framing versus bad umpiring (because it's a agrument that'll lead to no where), but imo the umpires are so bad that pitch framing is indeed antiquated. It's mostly random, in the eyes of the flawed umpire.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 5, 2018 3:31:27 GMT -5
Basically what I'm trying to summarize is that there is a minor positive affect to Vazquez's arm and pitch framing these days.
Certainly the minor affect he has on pitch framing (which we went over) and the run game (which again is mostly non existent now a days), definitely doesn't outweigh his flaws.
I'm hoping for a Realmuto trade and I'm hoping Dombrowski identifies Realmuto as a real trade target before another GM gets him.
Edit- I will say outside of Realmuto, the Sox should stand pat if they don't get him. Again, there's probably no one else that significantly improves the Sox like Realmuto can.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 5, 2018 7:44:51 GMT -5
Basically what I'm trying to summarize is that there is a minor positive affect to Vazquez's arm and pitch framing these days. Certainly the minor affect he has on pitch framing (which we went over) and the run game (which again is mostly non existent now a days), definitely doesn't outweigh his flaws. I'm hoping for a Realmuto trade and I'm hoping Dombrowski identifies Realmuto as a real trade target before another GM gets him. Edit- I will say outside of Realmuto, the Sox should stand pat if they don't get him. Again, there's probably no one else that significantly improves the Sox like Realmuto can. I think, particularly if Thornburg doesn't come back as the pitcher he was in Milwaukee and pitches like Carson Smith has been pitching, then I think they can use another high leverage arm for the bullpen to be either the 8th inning guy or the closer if Kimbrel is being used for the highest leverage inning that isn't the 9th. The question is at what cost? The Sox should be able to get a guy like that but they need to be careful. If Britton came back the way he was in Baltimore you'd have to look at him, and I think you've mentioned Brach in the past, too. I'm sure Herrera of KC would be a candidate. You can imagine the asking price though. Guys like Beeks and Poyner would be requested. Somebody like a Hernandez or Shawaryn, probably, too. The Red Sox would probably have to include a Hembree in the deal because adversely to the Sox he'd be in a roster crush and positively for the other team he'd come as major league ready, decent, and still have a few years of control. Before I would have said yes to a Beeks or a Poyner. Now I don't think so. I've always liked Poyner and Beeks has been converting me into a Beeks fan.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 5, 2018 10:02:23 GMT -5
Basically what I'm trying to summarize is that there is a minor positive affect to Vazquez's arm and pitch framing these days. Certainly the minor affect he has on pitch framing (which we went over) and the run game (which again is mostly non existent now a days), definitely doesn't outweigh his flaws. I'm hoping for a Realmuto trade and I'm hoping Dombrowski identifies Realmuto as a real trade target before another GM gets him. Edit- I will say outside of Realmuto, the Sox should stand pat if they don't get him. Again, there's probably no one else that significantly improves the Sox like Realmuto can. I think, particularly if Thornburg doesn't come back as the pitcher he was in Milwaukee and pitches like Carson Smith has been pitching, then I think they can use another high leverage arm for the bullpen to be either the 8th inning guy or the closer if Kimbrel is being used for the highest leverage inning that isn't the 9th. The question is at what cost? The Sox should be able to get a guy like that but they need to be careful. If Britton came back the way he was in Baltimore you'd have to look at him, and I think you've mentioned Brach in the past, too. I'm sure Herrera of KC would be a candidate. You can imagine the asking price though. Guys like Beeks and Poyner would be requested. Somebody like a Hernandez or Shawaryn, probably, too. The Red Sox would probably have to include a Hembree in the deal because adversely to the Sox he'd be in a roster crush and positively for the other team he'd come as major league ready, decent, and still have a few years of control. Before I would have said yes to a Beeks or a Poyner. Now I don't think so. I've always liked Poyner and Beeks has been converting me into a Beeks fan. Yeah bullpen isn't still out of the question of being upgraded, but imo Champs, catcher is the bigger question. You can roll with Vazquez all year and have a average to below average catcher, or you can upgrade and get a top 3 catcher in the league who is *readily available* for the right price.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2018 10:34:11 GMT -5
First, there is little incentive for Florida to trade now so you'd have to completely overpay to get it done. Second, the Red Sox are way better off seeing if Vazquez can bounce back after one bad month than they are to empty the farm system when it's already bad.
I can't understand the overreaction people have to short samples as if they've never watched baseball before. Everyone wanted to dump Papi in 2009 when he had 1 HR by the end of May too. I'm glad the people who overreact to everything aren't running the Red Sox.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 5, 2018 10:39:36 GMT -5
There will be incentive as the months roll along though.
The Sox are already down this rabbit hole of having a empty farm system. You have to maximize in this window.
You don't trade for Chris Sale and then put the brakes on maximizing trade assets to compete in this window.
If there was no Sale or Kimbrel trade, you'd have a point. The Sox wouldn't be as good and they'd have the option of building things up and seeing where things go.
That is not where the direction of the team chose to go though. Imo you're losing out if you don't maximize the next two years.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 5, 2018 10:40:49 GMT -5
Come on, are we comparing David Ortiz to Christian Vazquez?
Vazquez is what he is. Ortiz was a HOF.
I'm not even saying the Sox even have to get rid of Vazquez either (they can keep him and make him the backup catcher). I'm saying they need to upgrade the catching position.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2018 10:43:07 GMT -5
Come on, are we comparing David Ortiz to Christian Vazquez? Vazquez is what he is. Ortiz was a HOF. No, Vazquez is not a guy who should have a 35 wRC+. He should be between 90-100. I'm not saying he's Ortiz. I'm saying he's a slightly below average hitter, which is just fine as a catcher.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 5, 2018 10:44:38 GMT -5
Come on, are we comparing David Ortiz to Christian Vazquez? Vazquez is what he is. Ortiz was a HOF. No, Vazquez is not a guy who should have a 35 wRC+. He should be between 90-100. I'm not saying he's Ortiz. I'm saying he's a slightly below average hitter, which is just fine as a catcher. They could improve though. Fine is great as long as you're content with just division titles.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2018 10:44:46 GMT -5
There will be incentive as the months roll along though. The Sox are already down this rabbit hole of having a empty farm system. You have to maximize in this window. You don't trade for Chris Sale and then put the brakes on maximizing trade assets to compete in this window. If there was no Sale or Kimbrel trade, you'd have a point. The Sox wouldn't be as good and they'd have the option of building things up and seeing where things go. That is not where the direction of the team chose to go though. Imo you're losing out if you don't maximize the next two years. And there's no guarantee that Realmuto comes to Boston and instantly performs the same way he has always performed. The pitchers would all have zero relationship with him. Lots of players have initial trouble after a trade, especially when going to Boston. Making a panic move like this is ridiculous.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2018 10:49:24 GMT -5
No, Vazquez is not a guy who should have a 35 wRC+. He should be between 90-100. I'm not saying he's Ortiz. I'm saying he's a slightly below average hitter, which is just fine as a catcher. They could improve though. Fine is great as long as you're content with just division titles. Fine is great when you care about the future. I'm not going to empty the farm system and leave the team with no prospects to fill holes that could be created by season ending injuries.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 5, 2018 10:49:45 GMT -5
There will be incentive as the months roll along though. The Sox are already down this rabbit hole of having a empty farm system. You have to maximize in this window. You don't trade for Chris Sale and then put the brakes on maximizing trade assets to compete in this window. If there was no Sale or Kimbrel trade, you'd have a point. The Sox wouldn't be as good and they'd have the option of building things up and seeing where things go. That is not where the direction of the team chose to go though. Imo you're losing out if you don't maximize the next two years. And there's no guarantee that Realmuto comes to Boston and instantly performs the same way he has always performed. The pitchers would all have zero relationship with him. Lots of players have initial trouble after a trade, especially when going to Boston. Making a panic move like this is ridiculous. The Victor Martinez trade in 2009 is the reason why I'm not concerned about this trade. You have a pitching staff full of veteran pitchers, they won't stink all because Vazquez and Leon aren't catching anymore. Realmuto has improved each year he's been in the league and he's right handed playing at home in Fenway Park. He also has a career 42 percent pull percentage. Really, you can't find a better trade candidate to improve this team this deadline.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2018 10:52:06 GMT -5
And there's no guarantee that Realmuto comes to Boston and instantly performs the same way he has always performed. The pitchers would all have zero relationship with him. Lots of players have initial trouble after a trade, especially when going to Boston. Making a panic move like this is ridiculous. The Victor Martinez trade in 2009 is the reason why I'm not concerned about this trade. You have a pitching staff full of veteran pitchers, they won't stink all because Vazquez and Leon aren't catching anymore. Realmuto has improved each year he's been in the league and he's right handed playing at home in Fenway Park. He also has a career 42 percent pull percentage. Really, you can't find a better trade candidate to improve this team this deadline. And I can't think of a trade that would decimate the farm system more than trading for Realmuto. Let's trade for Trout too.
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