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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 1, 2018 12:56:27 GMT -5
Hell, the last time the Red Sox won the WS they were rolling Tazawa and Breslow out in high leverage situations. I trust this years bullpen more than I do 2013’s. The position is wildly unpredictable. It is volatile. They need to learn their lesson and stop burning significant assets for relievers. They do not have the prospect currency to continue to do so. I want them to see what they have in house and then MAYBE make a deal for a guy that will only cost a couple depth prospects To be fair Breslow and Tazawa were pretty damn good that year. They were worn out by the post-season so I think Farrell spotted Tazawa in very short stints and Breslow was brilliant until he ran out of gas following the ALCS. Honestly I trusted those guys more than I trust Kelly and Barnes. Maybe it's their lack of consistent strike throwing that concerns me. Plus the Sox didn't have to face teams the caliber of Houston and NY like they'd have to this season. In 2013, TB, Detroit, and St Louis were good teams, but they weren't .650 - .700 caliber clubs like Houston and NY are. The bullpen needs to be better. I think the Sox would benefit from another high leverage reliever and when you go up against Houston or NY, I think they're going to need one. I don't think you can just plug a reliever like Buttrey and feel like he's the answer. If you do try though, he has a month to prove that he can be that high leverage guy, which isn't fair to a kid like Buttrey. I think Dombrowski wants to audition Thornburg in that role (natural because that's what he was with Milwaukee) and if he succeeds, awesome the Sox have a high leverage reliever that they'll lean on heavily. But if he struggles (and I thought he did at times at Pawtucket), then Dombrowski will get another reliever. My question is how much do you think the Sox are really going to give up for a reliever, particularly a guy's who's probably a rental? If the guy costs bucks and the Sox decide to go over the limit, then the Sox will not likely be giving up anybody of consequence. They'll move back 10 spots in the draft and pay some financial penalty. Most likely it's a rental they get and the guy shouldn't cost a ton in prospects, likely just future middle relievers, which are the easiest assets to develop in the minors given how many minor league starters wind up having to convert to relief because they can't hack it as starters. I know the Sox made what was a bad deal for Thornburg but the attraction for the Sox was the multiple years of control. That's not likely the case the Sox face this month. I'm not overly concerned that the Sox will make some huge overpay that will kill them. Don’t put too much stock on the teams winning percentages; the AL this year is a complete joke. There are 3 really good teams, the Indians are good, the Mariners are decent and the rest are straight garbage. Actually the As aren’t garbage but they’d probably be a 75-80 win team in a normal year. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2018 13:57:50 GMT -5
To be fair Breslow and Tazawa were pretty damn good that year. They were worn out by the post-season so I think Farrell spotted Tazawa in very short stints and Breslow was brilliant until he ran out of gas following the ALCS. Honestly I trusted those guys more than I trust Kelly and Barnes. Maybe it's their lack of consistent strike throwing that concerns me. Plus the Sox didn't have to face teams the caliber of Houston and NY like they'd have to this season. In 2013, TB, Detroit, and St Louis were good teams, but they weren't .650 - .700 caliber clubs like Houston and NY are. The bullpen needs to be better. I think the Sox would benefit from another high leverage reliever and when you go up against Houston or NY, I think they're going to need one. I don't think you can just plug a reliever like Buttrey and feel like he's the answer. If you do try though, he has a month to prove that he can be that high leverage guy, which isn't fair to a kid like Buttrey. I think Dombrowski wants to audition Thornburg in that role (natural because that's what he was with Milwaukee) and if he succeeds, awesome the Sox have a high leverage reliever that they'll lean on heavily. But if he struggles (and I thought he did at times at Pawtucket), then Dombrowski will get another reliever. My question is how much do you think the Sox are really going to give up for a reliever, particularly a guy's who's probably a rental? If the guy costs bucks and the Sox decide to go over the limit, then the Sox will not likely be giving up anybody of consequence. They'll move back 10 spots in the draft and pay some financial penalty. Most likely it's a rental they get and the guy shouldn't cost a ton in prospects, likely just future middle relievers, which are the easiest assets to develop in the minors given how many minor league starters wind up having to convert to relief because they can't hack it as starters. I know the Sox made what was a bad deal for Thornburg but the attraction for the Sox was the multiple years of control. That's not likely the case the Sox face this month. I'm not overly concerned that the Sox will make some huge overpay that will kill them. Don’t put too much stock on the teams winning percentages; the AL this year is a complete joke. There are 3 really good teams, the Indians are good, the Mariners are decent and the rest are straight garbage. Actually the As aren’t garbage but they’d probably be a 75-80 win team in a normal year. Point taken. There are 3 "superteams" and 3 dregs, the Orioles, Royals, and White Sox. The O's, once they finally dump their player, have a shot at losing more games than the 62 Mets. There are some other bad teams but nothing really out of the ordinary. It's those 3 teams though that are horrifically bad. The Sox have fattened up on the Orioles, but played .500 combined vs White Sox and KC I believe. So I still think the superteams are tougher to deal with than what the 2013 Red Sox had, but your point about things being inflated does stand. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 1, 2018 15:00:32 GMT -5
I think it depends on what we’re giving up but it feels like people aren’t remembering we have a horrible track record of acquiring useful relievers mid season. If the cost of acquiring someone is low, that is one thing, but these reliever acquisitions rarely end up helping a team over the finish line, and even more rarely do so for the Sox.
To me it seems like we could use a decent lefty but many times these relievers acquired end up being bad, plus there is the cost of acquiring them. How likely is it this reliever will end up being significantly better than what we have?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2018 17:39:47 GMT -5
I think it depends on what we’re giving up but it feels like people aren’t remembering we have a horrible track record of acquiring useful relievers mid season. If the cost of acquiring someone is low, that is one thing, but these reliever acquisitions rarely end up helping a team over the finish line, and even more rarely do so for the Sox. To me it seems like we could use a decent lefty but many times these relievers acquired end up being bad, plus there is the cost of acquiring them. How likely is it this reliever will end up being significantly better than what we have? They're not all Eric Gagne. If you look at it from an all encompassing view, sure, it's not a great gamble. But again, if the Sox find themselves locked into a tight game in October with the Yankees at the Toilet exactly how much confidence do you have in Kelly and Barnes? I think the Red Sox can upgrade there. And I don't think the price is going to be as costly as you think it is. They're not trading the next Jeff Bagwell. They're not even trading the next Phil Plantier. When they dealt away Gagne, they lost David Murphy who wouldn't have been good enough to crack the Red Sox OF until 2010. He was fringy as a starting player, and at this point the Sox don't even have somebody that projects as well there in the minors (Matheny is the most likely major league OF from the minors beyond low A). If the Sox go after Brad Hand, then yeah, that would be dumb because they would decimate what's left of the system. I did read that they're look at Iglesias from Cincy, but I think it would be the same issue, so I don't see that happening either. If it's a rental, they'll pay rental costs, which doesn't really amount to much. Will the reliever have an ERA under 1? No. But I think the odds are they can be better than Kelly and Barnes, who both have been good, but both have trouble throwing strikes and are capable of epic meltdowns where they can't control the damage. Besides who says you have to limit yourself to two high leverage relievers beyond your closer? The Yankees have Green, Betances, and Robertson to set up Chapman and have a good long man in Warren (a role that Workman can fill well with the Sox if his fastball stays reasonably fast). The Astros are sure to get a reliever themselves to go with Rondon, Devenski, and Peacock to set up Giles. If you have to make a terrible trade to get a reliever, then no don't do it, but if the trade is reasonable - and you're dealing away some middle relievers of the future, it's really not the end of the world. Those are the easiest to develop in the minors. And if you develop enough eventually you keep some, hope some become high leverage and you don't have to make these deals down the road. But for this year, the team can use the help. Anything that improves the team even if it does seem marginal. At this point a marginal upgrade can make a difference in staying out of the Wild Card game (and make no mistake - the Yanks are going to get a starter) and the Astro will get themselves a reliever, too. But it's more than that marginal difference. It's making the best post-season roster to go to war with against the best teams in the league, which are damn good this season. |
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Post by ramireja on Jul 6, 2018 17:13:02 GMT -5
I don't think this has been posted, but theres a Masslive article here on Buttrey, Lakins, plus brief mentions of Poyner and Feltman. Regarding Buttrey though there was an interesting quote from Cora, although there is not a ton of context provided in the article. It does sound like they have him working on certain things in AAA right now that they believe could present problems for him in the majors: |
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 7, 2018 10:12:01 GMT -5
Will the Sox decide that this is the year to go for it and blow by the luxury tax cap? It is looking like a possibility it seems. I doubt it, wouldn’t you have called up Rusney? No, unless you want to see him hit a bunch of worm burners to the infielders most at bats. This team needs a 2nd baseman more than an OF, |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 7, 2018 16:06:46 GMT -5
In mlbtraderumors.com I read about the "Fernando Rodney [being] one of several relievers the Red Sox are considering as trade targets." courtesy of Jerry Crasnick.
I'm sure the Sox are looking at a ton of possibilities.
OTOH, it's not far-fetched for the Sox to possibly acquire Rodney.
I was under the assumption that prior to Steven Pearce's arrival the Sox were at around $234 million for their payroll, and that they're on the hook for about 1.33 to about 1.5 million for Pearce as they got the Jays to take on 1.66 million of his remaining salary.
If that assumption is correct that leaves the Sox about 2 million or so to acquire a relief pitcher.
I would guess they're looking for a guy with closing experience, familiar with high leverage of course, that's a rental and not making a ton of money, and would allow the Sox to squeeze in under the luxury tax threshold.
The two names that stand out would be Brad Brach and Fernando Rodney, who has closed for Dombrowski's Tigers.
Of course if the numbers that I assumed are wrong, then it's all a moot point - and if they're already over and they're going to be over anyways, then I would hope they grab Soria from the White Sox.
I really want no part of Rodney. He had a fantastic 2012 somehow, but the guy cannot throw strikes consistently to save his life and whoever comes in has to be able to come into a dirty inning and not pour gasoline on the fire. Walks need not apply. I know his control has been better this year, but I don't trust him to maintain it.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2018 16:31:34 GMT -5
If the Sox actually are only $2 million from $237, that's going to limit how many players they can call up in September and that just sucks because it's such a good opportunity for players to get some rest down the stretch.
I don't want any players who wear their hat crooked. Get off my lawn.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 7, 2018 17:49:50 GMT -5
How much contribution can you reasonably expect from Rodney who is 41 years old in non-closing situations?
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Canseco
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Post by Canseco on Jul 7, 2018 18:17:13 GMT -5
I don't want any players who wear their hat crooked. Get off my lawn.  Amen! |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 8, 2018 4:11:26 GMT -5
Getting Fernando Rodney would make us feel.....alive. Get that heart racing and blood pumping
Dominican Todd Jones, let’s party
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 8, 2018 7:53:00 GMT -5
I don't want any players who wear their hat crooked. Get off my lawn. Amen! Are you two for real? |
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Post by dd on Jul 8, 2018 8:00:48 GMT -5
When you combine the fact that the Yankees and the Astros are as good as they are and in very good shape moving forward compared to the Sox cap wise doesn't it kind of make sense to go for it now? If they go after more BP help and hence go over the cap then maybe when it comes to Rusney but then that means they have his cap hit in the future also so maybe not. 538 Sports had the Red Sox with a 13% chance of winning the WS this year and the Yankees a 14% chance. How much do you want to blow it up just to get another 2-3% chance? It seems crazy to think about mortgaging much more of the future for that. They have a great team and will undoubtedly make the playoffs and even should get past the Wild Card game with Sale pitching if they don't win the division. I don't see the point in making so many trades at this point. I'd rather that they focus on making the playoffs every year instead of trading all of the prospects and putting themselves in such a crappy cap situation just to win 1 World Series when there is no possible way to make sure that they win. Roll a 6 sided die and hope for a 6, because that's about what our odds will ever be at the very most. Making the playoffs is the realistic goal that can be achieved by team building. Winning the WS is winning the lottery. The Sox & Y's will both make the playoffs but if it's still a close division race come mid September, with 6 those games between them in the last 13 days it will be interesting to see how both teams prioritize setting up their rotations. Do you save your ace for the WC game or use the best you've got in September to try to avoid the WC? If Price starts the WC game I might not have the mental strength to watch it. Agree with you though about not mortgaging the future for a small incremental increase in the chances of winning it all. OTOH it is scary that there just doesn't seem to be a huge "future" in the current system and the reverse seems true for the Y's. Sigh. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 8, 2018 9:45:43 GMT -5
If it’s a close race you don’t even think about setting up your rotations or that play in game. You do everything you can to try and avoid it in my opinion.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 8, 2018 10:27:25 GMT -5
Cuevas and Ryan Brasier now up. Not exactly world beaters.
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Canseco
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Post by Canseco on Jul 8, 2018 10:30:41 GMT -5
Amen! Are you two for real? Not really, no. Just joshing around. Rodney's hat has nothing to do with me not wanting him on the Sox. It's the thought of his tightrope act in crunch time that horrifies me. |
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2018 11:03:16 GMT -5
Time to update my relief metrics and get an objective lens on this.
The first number is Expected WPA- (Win Probability Added, adjusted for leverage and scaled so that 100 is league average) and the second is Actual WPA-. Both numbers are followed by their rank among the 210 most used relievers, if they qualify.
55 (14) / 15 (7) Craig Kimbrel 58 (--) / 16 (--) Brandon Workman 48 (10) / 64 (46) Matt Barnes 72 (37) / 52 (28) Joe Kelly 85 (70) / 77 (77) Heath Hembree 92 (--) / 75 (--) Brian Johnson starting 5/14 (relief only)
115 (169) / 72 (66) Hector Velazquez 115 (170) / 142 (195) Brian Johnson
Kimbrel's 15 wPA- makes him the 4th most successful closer after Chapman (-5), Blake Treinen (2), and Josh Hader (7), although his edge over Sean Doolittle (16) is insignificant. Among closers, Edwin Diaz and the Giant's new closer Will Smith have better raw numbers, but Kimbrel's xWPA- can be expected to trend better. He's not been the automatic guy he was last year and the way Chapman has been this year, but he's still elite.
Workman has been sensational in a SSS, but a lot of that is his .188 BABIP. If you give him a .250 (which seems reasonable; Heath Hembree is .273), his xWPA- goes up to 74, and that would rank about 40th, which is a top 7th inning guy. I don't know how you can watch him and not think he's a solid 7th inning solution going forward, ignoring ordinary reliever variation (anyone can turn into a pumpkin at any time).
Matt Barnes' 68 xFIP-, .244 BABIP, and .050 HR/FB combine for the 10th best xWPA- in MLB. And he's been consistent. He has not been used in the 8th inning since he blew the comeback game in Seattle, and it's certainly true that he has a track record that makes you question whether he can handle the 8th inning role on a contender, but his raw numbers say he can close, and clutch stats are simply not that predictive. He has a positive career "Clutch" at FanGraphs. They should give him some more shots at the 8th and see how he does.
Joe Kelly's awful June bumped his numbers down to below-average or average 8th inning guy (expected / actual) . But he's never been that; when he's been on, he's been nearly as good as Kimbrel.
Someone has to have the job of not pitching in save situations in the 7th, 8th, and 9th, and being capable of going two innings routinely. Hembree could pitch the 7th for a bad club and he's absolutely elite in this role. If he's the 5th or 6th guy in your pen instead of the 4th, that's great depth.
Johnson's actually been a good reliever since mid-May, and that's probably a real improvement representing a better warmup routine. Of course he's been invaluable as the 7th starter, and remains a terrific last man in the pen once Wright and/or Pomeranz return.
Velazquez is ticketed for AAA. It's unclear whether his great clutch splits have any predictive value, but he's a nice depth piece.
Now, add Tyler Thornburg to the mix. And if both Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz make it back and pitch well, Pomeranz is in the pen as well.
Kimbrel, Barnes, Workman is likely an OK 7-8-9 for a contender. I think you'd want to upgrade it. But that's what you're stuck with only if:
-- Kelly doesn't return to form -- Barnes has another failure or two when given a shot at the 8th
-- Thornburg maxes out as as a 7th inning guy -- Pomeranz, ditto.
They have so many potential 7th inning guys that I don't think that overall 7-8-9 depth is remotely a question. Whether you trade for a reliever depends strictly on whether one of these four guys can seize the 8th inning job forcefully this month. I think the odds are good that someone will, or that collectively they'll be good enough that a strategy where you mix and match the 7th and 8th depending on matchup projections makes more sense than a trade.
In fact, there's a scenario where Thornburg and Pomeranz have bumped Heath Hembree right off the depth chart and, thanks to Velazquez at AAA being a perfectly adequate 6th guy in the pen and Buttrey, Beeks and hopefully Maddox all being further depth, you can trade him at the deadline to an NL contender with a pen as thin as ours is deep. He's solidly above average and he'll have 3 1/3 years of control left, which is to say 10 times as much as a rental. A guy like him as half as valuable as an 8th inning guy, so that's a lot more trade value.
The compromise move would be to deal Hembree but also acquire a rental who could pitch the 8th. Given the low cost of rentals, that may be the likeliest and/or best option; on paper you improve the pen and you also add a little to the farm system rather than subtract.
But you can certainly root for the scenario where the pen seems so strong that Hembree is simply expendable. And the best part of that is that it collapses the minds of all the pundits who have been sure that another reliever was our certain and primary need.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2018 11:24:24 GMT -5
In mlbtraderumors.com I read about the "Fernando Rodney [being] one of several relievers the Red Sox are considering as trade targets." courtesy of Jerry Crasnick. I'm sure the Sox are looking at a ton of possibilities. OTOH, it's not far-fetched for the Sox to possibly acquire Rodney. I was under the assumption that prior to Steven Pearce's arrival the Sox were at around $234 million for their payroll, and that they're on the hook for about 1.33 to about 1.5 million for Pearce as they got the Jays to take on 1.66 million of his remaining salary. If that assumption is correct that leaves the Sox about 2 million or so to acquire a relief pitcher. I would guess they're looking for a guy with closing experience, familiar with high leverage of course, that's a rental and not making a ton of money, and would allow the Sox to squeeze in under the luxury tax threshold. The two names that stand out would be Brad Brach and Fernando Rodney, who has closed for Dombrowski's Tigers. Of course if the numbers that I assumed are wrong, then it's all a moot point - and if they're already over and they're going to be over anyways, then I would hope they grab Soria from the White Sox. I really want no part of Rodney. He had a fantastic 2012 somehow, but the guy cannot throw strikes consistently to save his life and whoever comes in has to be able to come into a dirty inning and not pour gasoline on the fire. Walks need not apply. I know his control has been better this year, but I don't trust him to maintain it. Fernando Rodney is 95 / 110. That's someone we would be not trading or, but DFA'ing. Literally.
Brad Brach is 119 / 105.
Between them, the 13 teams that are expected to be sellers at the deadline (including the Rays but not the Angels) have 22 pitchers that have been better than Heath Hembree this year.
Here is the complete list of the 22 who will be free agents this winter:
[this space intentionally left blank]
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Post by bluechip on Jul 9, 2018 22:44:27 GMT -5
The bullpen has been good so far. Third in the league in ERA and fWAR. Yankees and Astros are better in both stats. Yeah, Kimbrel is the only elite arm in the pen and there isn’t the Andrew Miller fireman out there, but almost everyone has been solid including guys currently in AAA like Poyner, and the newly seen Brasier.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 10, 2018 0:41:00 GMT -5
Kelly has finally mixed in his offspeed more. I have always said Kelly's fastball was his worst pitch (even in the mid to high 90's) and this kind of proves it.
I have also always said Workman's fastball isn't major league quality. Well, Workman has reinvented himself and is realizing it. I still have doubts on his ability to stick, but to his credit, he's keeping up with the times and realizes he needs to throw his fastball less and less.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2018 21:40:00 GMT -5
The bullpen depth chart right now looks like this, when everyone is healthy. This excludes Johnson as the 7th guy as long man and and spot starter.
Kimbrel Kelly (back to his April / May form) Barnes (peaking) Pomeranz or Price (could be higher)
Workman Thornburg ? ? (could be higher or lower)
Hembree Brasier ? (could be higher)
Velazquez Scott
Poyner (Buttrey, if they ever get that far)
What this means is that there is a scenario where you can trade Hembree, and his 3 1/3 years of control, at the deadline.
Both Thornburg and Brasier need to be optioned when everyone is healthy. If either one is significantly better than Hembree, though, you don't want to do that. And Brasier / Thornburg, Velazquez, Scott and Poyner provide a lot of depth for when you have one or two guys on the DL. This is especially true if Brasier looks as good as Hembree. You're talking about risking a downgrade from Hembree to the choice of Velazquez, Scott, and Poyner for the 5th-man-in-pen role, when there are two guys on the DL, versus the long-term gain of what Hembree might fetch in a trade. You'd certainly look into it.
Teams avoid risk, and I think this only happens, however, if both Thornburg and Brazier project to be even better than Hembree the rest of the way. If you have 8 quality guys for the 6 slots, it's an easy choice to trade the 8th guy when he's good enough to be the 4th guy in the average team's pen, and has three-plus years of control.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 10, 2018 21:44:14 GMT -5
Hembree has been pretty good lately. He’s put out some fires this year
*ducks for cover*
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 4:21:10 GMT -5
The bullpen depth chart right now looks like this, when everyone is healthy. This excludes Johnson as the 7th guy as long man and and spot starter.
Kimbrel Kelly (back to his April / May form) Barnes (peaking) Pomeranz or Price (could be higher)
Workman Thornburg ? ? (could be higher or lower)
Hembree Brasier ? (could be higher)
Velazquez Scott
Poyner (Buttrey, if they ever get that far)
What this means is that there is a scenario where you can trade Hembree, and his 3 1/3 years of control, at the deadline.
Both Thornburg and Brasier need to be optioned when everyone is healthy. If either one is significantly better than Hembree, though, you don't want to do that. And Brasier / Thornburg, Velazquez, Scott and Poyner provide a lot of depth for when you have one or two guys on the DL. This is especially true if Brasier looks as good as Hembree. You're talking about risking a downgrade from Hembree to the choice of Velazquez, Scott, and Poyner for the 5th-man-in-pen role, when there are two guys on the DL, versus the long-term gain of what Hembree might fetch in a trade. You'd certainly look into it.
Teams avoid risk, and I think this only happens, however, if both Thornburg and Brazier project to be even better than Hembree the rest of the way. If you have 8 quality guys for the 6 slots, it's an easy choice to trade the 8th guy when he's good enough to be the 4th guy in the average team's pen, and has three-plus years of control.
Brasier and Workman have already switched places on that depth chart. Brasier brings it and dots the corners at 98 mph. Workman has to mix it up to get away with a 90 mph fastball. It's not even that close of a call imo. Brasier won't be the one getting optioned if he keeps shoving like he's currently doing. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 4:24:25 GMT -5
Hembree has been pretty good lately. He’s put out some fires this year *ducks for cover* What you posted is true. I just hope Cora uses Brasier in more of the fireman type of role earlier in games instead of going to Hembree first from now on, but maybe that's just me. |
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Post by bluechip on Jul 11, 2018 5:42:25 GMT -5
Hembree has been pretty good lately. He’s put out some fires this year *ducks for cover* What you posted is true. I just hope Cora uses Brasier in more of the fireman type of role earlier in games instead of going to Hembree first from now on, but maybe that's just me. Brasier, while showing good stuff, is going to need to be consistent for a bit longer before he earns the trust to be put into those type of spots. Hembree has been doing a fine job and I don’t see him losing that role to a minor league journeyman after two outings. Honestly, the most you can hope for is that Brasier, if consistent, will alternate with Hembree. MLB managers do have to deal with the human aspect of the game. |
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