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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2018 8:10:32 GMT -5
The bullpen depth chart right now looks like this, when everyone is healthy. This excludes Johnson as the 7th guy as long man and and spot starter.
Kimbrel Kelly (back to his April / May form) Barnes (peaking) Pomeranz or Price (could be higher)
Workman Thornburg ? ? (could be higher or lower)
Hembree Brasier ? (could be higher)
Velazquez Scott
Poyner (Buttrey, if they ever get that far)
What this means is that there is a scenario where you can trade Hembree, and his 3 1/3 years of control, at the deadline.
Both Thornburg and Brasier need to be optioned when everyone is healthy. If either one is significantly better than Hembree, though, you don't want to do that. And Brasier / Thornburg, Velazquez, Scott and Poyner provide a lot of depth for when you have one or two guys on the DL. This is especially true if Brasier looks as good as Hembree. You're talking about risking a downgrade from Hembree to the choice of Velazquez, Scott, and Poyner for the 5th-man-in-pen role, when there are two guys on the DL, versus the long-term gain of what Hembree might fetch in a trade. You'd certainly look into it.
Teams avoid risk, and I think this only happens, however, if both Thornburg and Brazier project to be even better than Hembree the rest of the way. If you have 8 quality guys for the 6 slots, it's an easy choice to trade the 8th guy when he's good enough to be the 4th guy in the average team's pen, and has three-plus years of control.
Brasier and Workman have already switched places on that depth chart. Brasier brings it and dots the corners at 98 mph. Workman has to mix it up to get away with a 90 mph fastball. It's not even that close of a call imo. Brasier won't be the one getting optioned if he keeps shoving like he's currently doing. You can't just assume that Brasier and Workman have switched places just because you want it to be true. Last night, Workman's leverage index was 1.52. Brasier's was 0.20.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 11, 2018 8:26:55 GMT -5
Trade talk from ESPN: Red Sox seeking relief upgrades The Red Sox are blanketing the relief market, and they're aiming higher than just a depth piece. Craig Kimbrel is a free agent in November, and the Sox are looking for a reliever who's an upgrade rather than a complement to Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, et al.
"They're not just looking to get an eighth-inning reliever'' said an evaluator for a competing club. "They're looking to get a guy. A real guy.''
The Red Sox sent a top evaluator to watch Miami's Kyle Barraclough, and one source said they checked in with Colorado on Wade Davis. It's tough to see that deal getting much traction, given that the Rockies are 4 ½ games out in the NL West and Davis is in the first year of a $52 million contract.
San Diego is loaded with tradable bullpen assets in Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen. But the Padres withheld Drew Pomeranz's medical records when they traded him to Boston in 2016, and the ill will ran deep enough that it's hard to imagine A.J. Preller being at the top of Dave Dombrowski's call list.
Any evaluation by the Red Sox has to factor in the hyper-intense pressure in the Boston market. Barraclough has been dominant in Miami. But how would he react when he faces Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez before 45,000 fans in the Bronx? That's always something the big-market clubs have to consider. The Yankees are mindful of it each time Sonny Gray takes the mound and perpetuates the "certain guys can't handle playing in New York'' narrative this summer. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24057648/trade-talk-hearing-manny-machado-alternative-more
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 11, 2018 8:43:35 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 10:31:58 GMT -5
Brasier and Workman have already switched places on that depth chart. Brasier brings it and dots the corners at 98 mph. Workman has to mix it up to get away with a 90 mph fastball. It's not even that close of a call imo. Brasier won't be the one getting optioned if he keeps shoving like he's currently doing. You can't just assume that Brasier and Workman have switched places just because you want it to be true. Last night, Workman's leverage index was 1.52. Brasier's was 0.20. I look at the stuff of both pitchers and I'm predicting it to be true.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2018 10:38:16 GMT -5
You can't just assume that Brasier and Workman have switched places just because you want it to be true. Last night, Workman's leverage index was 1.52. Brasier's was 0.20. I look at the stuff of both pitchers and I'm predicting it to be true. So far, Brasier looks like Joe Kelly, with 2 less pitches, a little more control and a 6.08 xFIP and 6.30 SIERA. I'm hopeful, but I'd never predict that after 2 innings. If the Red Sox thought more of him, he would have been called up long ago.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 10:40:53 GMT -5
I look at the stuff of both pitchers and I'm predicting it to be true. So far, Brasier looks like Joe Kelly, with 2 less pitches and a 6.08 xFIP and 6.30 SIERA. I'm hopeful, but I'd never predict that after 2 innings. If the Red Sox thought more of him, he would have been called up long ago. Brasier had to really shove in order to get here in the first place, not the other way around, especially considering the depth of the Sox bullpen. So that's not necessarily true. Also, if Brasier became Joe Kelly, he'd be the second best bullpen arm in this bullpen.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 11:33:43 GMT -5
Looks like Sale wasn't the only one holding back when the season started. No wonder why no one is making contact off of Barnes this year.
Lol add-
Brian Bannister tweeted this at redsoxstats, but I have no idea what this means.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 11, 2018 11:43:40 GMT -5
Looks like Sale wasn't the only one holding back when the season started. No wonder why no one is making contact off of Barnes this year. Lol add- Brian Bannister tweeted this at redsoxstats, but I have no idea what this means. Last chart shows that he’s dropped a little more 3/4 (lower release), and his release point for all of his pitches is essentially identical, meaning there’s no “tell” from his delivery (based on release) which pitch he’s throwing. Kinda reminds me of Paxton before his breakout dropping a little more 3/4 and picking up 2-3 mph.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 11, 2018 11:45:06 GMT -5
Looks like Sale wasn't the only one holding back when the season started. No wonder why no one is making contact off of Barnes this year. Lol add- Brian Bannister tweeted this at redsoxstats, but I have no idea what this means. From what I can gather, it looks like he's pointing out that Barnes is pitching from a slightly lower point, and that all of his pitches are coming from a much more similar point than it had previously. The benefit of this, I assume, is that it increases deception because it becomes harder for hitters to identify a pitch solely by release point. Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 11, 2018 11:45:46 GMT -5
Not sure that these guys are beyond run of the mill. Blevins is lefty but is 34 with a 4+ ERA. He never averaged a strikeout/inning until he moved to the NL. Familia...stats are meh. I'm convinced that Britton is the guy. He's still young, is lefty power and his injury was not to his arm.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2018 11:46:41 GMT -5
Looks like Sale wasn't the only one holding back when the season started. No wonder why no one is making contact off of Barnes this year. Lol add- Brian Bannister tweeted this at redsoxstats, but I have no idea what this means. He's gone from throwing all his pitches from different (vertical) release points to throwing them from the same point, thus making it much more difficult for hitters to tell them apart (the "tunneling"). He's also dropped the release point (and probably the arm angle), which apparently is more biomechanically efficient and is probably the cause for the velocity uptick.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2018 11:53:47 GMT -5
Two more guys we'd DFA, based on what they've done this year. There were 22 guys on selling teams that have pitched better than Hembree and are not free agents, and the reports are that we want to kill two birds with one stone by also picking up Kimbrel's replacement. Name Team xWP- WP- Diego Castillo Rays 44 -2 Kirby Yates Padres 54 19 Richard Bleier Orioles 90 26 Chaz Roe Rays 85 43 Jace Fry Wh. Sox 57 72 D. Steckenrider Marlins 86 46 Jose Leclerc Rangers 53 79 Robbie Erlin Padres 68 66 Raisel Iglesias Reds 82 53 Seth Lugo Mets 70 67 Jared Hughes Reds 79 59 Vidal Nuno Rays 85 53 Keone Kela Rangers 73 67 David Hernandez Reds 76 67 Craig Stammen Padres 79 65 Ky. Barraclough Marlins 57 88 Kyle Crick Pirates 84 65 Jose Alvarado Rays 78 76 T. Hildenberger Twins 83 75 Brad Keller Royals 72 86 Sergio Romo Rays 99 61 Amir Garrett Reds 84 77 The four Rays may not be realistic targets.
Matt Barnes is 43 / 62, which makes him a better Kimbrel replacement than anyone but Castillo and maybe Yates.
Joe Kelly is 70 / 50, which puts him ahead of everyone on the list except those two, Fry, Leclerc, and maybe Barraclough. And he's probably trending upward after solving his June funk.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 11, 2018 12:40:12 GMT -5
This is probably a silly question, but is there any benefit to the Red Sox having this information out there? (Re: the Matt Barnes graphs) I enjoy reading as much of it as I can, but could other teams gain something from this?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2018 12:57:19 GMT -5
This is probably a silly question, but is there any benefit to the Red Sox having this information out there? (Re: the Matt Barnes graphs) I enjoy reading as much of it as I can, but could other teams gain something from this? I can't see how it would hurt them. The information essentially reveals that his different pitches are coming from the same release point, and perhaps suggest a causative mechanism for his increased velocity (the lower release point). Even if other teams know that pitches are coming from the same release point and are faster on average, theres not much they can do to prepare for this right?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 11, 2018 14:22:30 GMT -5
This is probably a silly question, but is there any benefit to the Red Sox having this information out there? (Re: the Matt Barnes graphs) I enjoy reading as much of it as I can, but could other teams gain something from this? I can't see how it would hurt them. The information essentially reveals that his different pitches are coming from the same release point, and perhaps suggest a causative mechanism for his increased velocity (the lower release point). Even if other teams know that pitches are coming from the same release point and are faster on average, theres not much they can do to prepare for this right? Also, they all have Trackman data and would know this anyway by now. Might've been different if he'd said this at the beginning of the year and teams knew that, say, the curve wasn't coming out at a lower release point so they should stop looking for it.
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Post by coachmac on Jul 12, 2018 7:15:31 GMT -5
With all the rumors swirling about the Red Sox pursuing high-level reliever for this season and to act as their closer for next and many of the posters clamoring for such a move I am concerned about the hit the farm system is about to take. If we are truly trying to compete with the deep systems like the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers for a high-end reliever it will cost many of our favorite minor-leaguers. We all know Dave dombrowski's penchant for making 3 for one or 4 for 1 trades. On this site we heard wailing about how bad the Kimbrel deal was for two years every time a save opportunity was blown by Kimbrel. Hang on it's about to get choppy
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 12, 2018 8:09:01 GMT -5
Dombrowski has never had much success building a bullpen. The farm system is already pretty weak, so trading 3 or 4 prospects away for a reliever makes very little sense. However, Dombrowski has never been one to focus on building for the future. He has gutted the Red Sox farm system just like he did with the Tigers. Besides, this team needs a 2nd baseman much more than they need a reliever.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 12, 2018 11:07:39 GMT -5
Ian Browne at MLB.com
RED SOX What they need: "The Red Sox are only interested in getting a high-end eighth-inning reliever. And by high end, I mean Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, somebody that's better than Joe Smith, but not as good as Craig Kimbrel. Those guys are former closers, period. By the way, I don't believe for a second they are going to trade for Machado. What message does that send to Devers, who is 21, and could wind up being a stud?" -- NL scout
What they can get: "I've heard the Red Sox are hot and heavy for Adam Ottavino, the big righty from the Rockies. Don't forget about Kyle Barraclough, either. Honestly, they need a lefty, which is why Zach Britton is probably the best fit. Dombrowski usually gets what he wants this time of year. The challenge this year is that he's already traded so many elite prospects the last few years." -- NL front-office executive
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2018 11:32:24 GMT -5
Here are some trade targets. Numbers, then opinions.
YOC = Years of control after 2018. Odds are the team's playoff odds (average of BP and FG).
I've given the numbers for Barnes and Kelly for comparison.
Name Team Th Age YOC Inn gmLI xWP- WP- Odds Matt Barnes 1.42 50 63 Joe Kelly 1.57 76 56 Kirby Yates Padres R 31 2 8 1.38 50 16 0 Ky. Barraclough Marlins R 28 3 9 1.27 58 80 0 Keone Kela Rangers R 25 3 9 1.50 74 60 0 Raisel Iglesias Reds R 28 3 9 1.32 82 51 0 Adam Conley Marlins L 28 3 7 1.17 58 74 0 Jared Hughes Reds R 32 * 8 1.54 78 55 0 Adam Ottavino Rockies R 32 FA 8 1.51 56 49 12 Will Smith Giants L 28 1 8 1.39 20 34 19 Tony Watson Giants L 33 ** 8 1.50 64 16 19 Blake Treinen A's R 30 2 9 2.17 47 23 21
* 1/$2.5 plus option ** 1/$3.5 plus option
The available stud: Kirby Yates. Also the guy on a tanking team closest to FA, so the cost should be lower relative to quality. But everyone's going to want him for that reason. Here's hoping that DDo has evidence of Preller misconduct in the Pomeranz deal that he's never told the commissionr's office because he wants to use it for blackmail.
The probably unavailable studs: Adam Ottavino and Blake Treinen. The latter is listed just for amusement, and because Billy Beane does strange things.
The rumored guy I have no interest in at all: Kyle Barraclough. A 97 xFIP- and .144 BABIP, and he's actually been no better than Hembree at helping his team win games.
Three guys who are comparable to Joe Kelly and would represent extra depth more than the stud they desire: Jared Hughes (the cheapest by far), Keone Kela, Raisel Iglesias. The latter two, because they're closers with 3 years of control left, seem very unlikely to be worth the acquisition cost, plus there's the question of their handling a role demotion.
The really interesting idea: the Giants have two veteran LHR with excellent numbers, with 1 year and 1 + 1 option year of control. Trading one might be a reasonable bet-hedging for a team unlikely to make the postseason. Hembree for either one would be a nice small move.
The headscratching move that might not be bad: Adam Conley from the Marlins. He'd give you a LH option for the 7th, which might be handy if either Pomeranz or Wright remains out of the picture.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 14, 2018 11:47:13 GMT -5
Here are some trade targets. Numbers, then opinions.
YOC = Years of control after 2018. Odds are the team's playoff odds (average of BP and FG).
I've given the numbers for Barnes and Kelly for comparison.
Name Team Th Age YOC Inn gmLI xWP- WP- Odds Matt Barnes 1.42 50 63 Joe Kelly 1.57 76 56 Kirby Yates Padres R 31 2 8 1.38 50 16 0 Ky. Barraclough Marlins R 28 3 9 1.27 58 80 0 Keone Kela Rangers R 25 3 9 1.50 74 60 0 Raisel Iglesias Reds R 28 3 9 1.32 82 51 0 Adam Conley Marlins L 28 3 7 1.17 58 74 0 Jared Hughes Reds R 32 * 8 1.54 78 55 0 Adam Ottavino Rockies R 32 FA 8 1.51 56 49 12 Will Smith Giants L 28 1 8 1.39 20 34 19 Tony Watson Giants L 33 ** 8 1.50 64 16 19 Blake Treinen A's R 30 2 9 2.17 47 23 21
* 1/$2.5 plus option ** 1/$3.5 plus option
The available stud: Kirby Yates. Also the guy on a tanking team closest to FA, so the cost should be lower relative to quality. But everyone's going to want him for that reason. Here's hoping that DDo has evidence of Preller misconduct in the Pomeranz deal that he's never told the commissionr's office because he wants to use it for blackmail.
The probably unavailable studs: Adam Ottavino and Blake Treinen. The latter is listed just for amusement, and because Billy Beane does strange things.
The rumored guy I have no interest in at all: Kyle Barraclough. A 97 xFIP- and .144 BABIP, and he's actually been no better than Hembree at helping his team win games.
Three guys who are comparable to Joe Kelly and would represent extra depth more than the stud they desire: Jared Hughes (the cheapest by far), Keone Kela, Raisel Iglesias. The latter two, because they're closers with 3 years of control left, seem very unlikely to be worth the acquisition cost, plus there's the question of their handling a role demotion.
The really interesting idea: the Giants have two veteran LHR with excellent numbers, with 1 year and 1 + 1 option year of control. Trading one might be a reasonable bet-hedging for a team unlikely to make the postseason. Hembree for either one would be a nice small move.
The headscratching move that might not be bad: Adam Conley from the Marlins. He'd give you a LH option for the 7th, which might be handy if either Pomeranz or Wright remains out of the picture. What about Craig Stammen from the Padres?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2018 15:24:18 GMT -5
I think Soria makes sense. Closer experience allows you to use Kimbrel earlier and still have a proven Vet for the save. Also has a team option for next year, which gives you insurance for Kimbrel. He also shouldn't cost a crap load either.
If the cost was right I wouldn't mind gambling on Britton either. I'm looking more at what could they do in the playoffs over what have they done so far. I just don't trust Joe Kelly.
Knowing DD he'll go after guys with a track record, not a guy just having a breakout year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2018 15:52:01 GMT -5
I think Soria makes sense. Closer experience allows you to use Kimbrel earlier and still have a proven Vet for the save. Also has a team option for next year, which gives you insurance for Kimbrel. He also shouldn't cost a crap load either. If the cost was right I wouldn't mind gambling on Britton either. I'm looking more at what could they do in the playoffs over what have they done so far. I just don't trust Joe Kelly. Knowing DD he'll go after guys with a track record, not a guy just having a breakout year. Agree with everything but the last sentence. Dombrowski went after Pomeranz who had a half of a good year and a breakout year as a starter before trading for him. Dave will target the best arms available, regardless of track record. This is where scouting comes into play.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2018 16:26:27 GMT -5
Pedro that was one trade and he was by far the best starter available. He also had two good years in Oakland bullpen making 19 starts before his breakout with Colorado. It was very risky, but there was data there showing he'd had been good for a while. Injuries were and still are his biggest issue. Nevermind given what we got out of Pomeranz so far do you think that makes DD want to try that again?
Bullpen arms we've traded for Kimbrel, Smith, Abad, Ziegler, Thornburgh, and Reed. DD goes after guys with a proven track record. Sure maybe he gambles, but its much more likely he gets a proven guy. I just had to point this out because I've seen you bring up the Pomeranz trade a bunch of times, like that's what DD always does.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2018 16:37:27 GMT -5
Dave Dombrowski takes risks. Thornburg, Smith, Pomeranz were all guys who had small track records with success with questionable injury histories. He likes the most talented players, regardless of what they've done in the past.
That's what I've noticed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2018 16:42:04 GMT -5
What about Craig Stammen from the Padres? I think Soria makes sense. Closer experience allows you to use Kimbrel earlier and still have a proven Vet for the save. Also has a team option for next year, which gives you insurance for Kimbrel. He also shouldn't cost a crap load either. If the cost was right I wouldn't mind gambling on Britton either. I'm looking more at what could they do in the playoffs over what have they done so far. I just don't trust Joe Kelly. Knowing DD he'll go after guys with a track record, not a guy just having a breakout year. Both Stammen (when you factor in ballpark) and Soria have pitched a little less well than Heath Hembree. Soria dominates the strike zone but he gets hit very hard as a result.
Britton's last four outings were very good, including two against the Yankees... and now they've given him three days off when you'd expect they'd be showcasing him further. His other three-day break was between his unimaginably awful first 9 appearances, and this good streak. If he has to rest for 3 days after pitching a week, that obviously limits his usefulness.
He didn't show up on my list because he ranks 281st in usage (I'm looking at the top 210), and would rank 200th out of those 210 if he did (that's including the excellent four outings). But if he keep pitching well he's obviously in the picture.
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