SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2018 17:03:18 GMT -5
What about Craig Stammen from the Padres? I think Soria makes sense. Closer experience allows you to use Kimbrel earlier and still have a proven Vet for the save. Also has a team option for next year, which gives you insurance for Kimbrel. He also shouldn't cost a crap load either. If the cost was right I wouldn't mind gambling on Britton either. I'm looking more at what could they do in the playoffs over what have they done so far. I just don't trust Joe Kelly. Knowing DD he'll go after guys with a track record, not a guy just having a breakout year. Both Stammen (when you factor in ballpark) and Soria have pitched a little less well than Heath Hembree. Soria dominates the strike zone but he gets hit very hard as a result.
Britton's last four outings were very good, including two against the Yankees... and now they've given him three days off when you'd expect they'd be showcasing him further. His other three-day break was between his unimaginably awful first 9 appearances, and this good streak. If he has to rest for 3 days after pitching a week, that obviously limits his usefulness.
He didn't show up on my list because he ranks 281st in usage (I'm looking at the top 210), and would rank 200th out of those 210 if he did (that's including the excellent four outings). But if he keep pitching well he's obviously in the picture.
I'm a Hembree fan, always said if he's the last guy in your bullpen that's a good thing. At the same time would you really trust Hembree more than Soria in the playoffs? I know you're a numbers guy, just asking your opinion not based on numbers. I do think the one flaw in the way you are looking at this is by only looking at how pitchers have pitched so far. Not looking at how you think they will pitch going forward and most importantly in the playoffs. That's were Soria rises above other guys in my opinion. A more proven guy with closer experience, that has a history of doing well against righties and lefties, along with an above average BAbip this year. Just my two cents.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2018 19:30:01 GMT -5
Both Stammen (when you factor in ballpark) and Soria have pitched a little less well than Heath Hembree. Soria dominates the strike zone but he gets hit very hard as a result.
Britton's last four outings were very good, including two against the Yankees... and now they've given him three days off when you'd expect they'd be showcasing him further. His other three-day break was between his unimaginably awful first 9 appearances, and this good streak. If he has to rest for 3 days after pitching a week, that obviously limits his usefulness.
He didn't show up on my list because he ranks 281st in usage (I'm looking at the top 210), and would rank 200th out of those 210 if he did (that's including the excellent four outings). But if he keep pitching well he's obviously in the picture.
I'm a Hembree fan, always said if he's the last guy in your bullpen that's a good thing. At the same time would you really trust Hembree more than Soria in the playoffs? I know you're a numbers guy, just asking your opinion not based on numbers. I do think the one flaw in the way you are looking at this is by only looking at how pitchers have pitched so far. Not looking at how you think they will pitch going forward and most importantly in the playoffs. That's were Soria rises above other guys in my opinion. A more proven guy with closer experience, that has a history of doing well against righties and lefties, along with an above average BAbip this year. Just my two cents. Soria has allowed a .323 BABIP. After .329 last year and .323 the year before. Over the last three years, he ranks 147th out of FanFraphs' 160 qualified relievers in MLB.
In that time frame he ranks 127th in their "Clutch" measure. Hembree ranks 100th. Just because a guy once had good enough stuff to close doesn't say anything at all about his response to pressure situations. Looking at the sorted list, there's no apparent correlation between "Clutch" (an imperfect measure, but still informative) and having been a closer. Chason Shreve is 2nd and Roberto Osuna is 150th.
So yes, I think all the evidence is that you'd rather have Hembree than Soria pitch the 6th. The more the opposing team is good at making contact, the more you'd want Hembree.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 15, 2018 1:20:50 GMT -5
I have to strongly disagree the better teams like the Yankees and Astros is why I want Soria. He limits walks and HRs. Also the White Sox have the worst team D in Baseball.
Soria 1.167 whip, 8.3 H/9, .5 HR/9, 2.3 W/9, 11.3 K/9, 2.75 ERA, 2.19 FIP, .326 BAbip, .232 .283 .317 .600 line .8 bwar, 1.2 fwar
Hembree 1.1293 whip, 7.4 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.2 W/9, 12.1 K/9, 3.96 ERA, 3.53 FIP, .297 BAbip, .222 .301, .396 .697 line, .6 bwar, .4 fwar
I don't know about you Eric but I prefer the guy that limits HRs and walks against the good teams that make contact. He might give up an extra single, compared to Hembree giving up more walks and harder contact. As much as I like Hembree there is a reason he's never pitched in the postseason. At the sametime Soria career BAbip is still .288, which leads me to believe the last few years have been more bad luck and bad D. The worst team D in the league doesn't help.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 15, 2018 8:38:03 GMT -5
Dave Dombrowski takes risks. Thornburg, Smith, Pomeranz were all guys who had small track records with success with questionable injury histories. He likes the most talented players, regardless of what they've done in the past. That's what I've noticed. Pomeranz has a track record and more importantly he had pedigree as a top prospect once upon a time. He wasn’t some unknown guy who came out of no where.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 15, 2018 9:43:48 GMT -5
I'm a Hembree fan, always said if he's the last guy in your bullpen that's a good thing. At the same time would you really trust Hembree more than Soria in the playoffs? I know you're a numbers guy, just asking your opinion not based on numbers. I do think the one flaw in the way you are looking at this is by only looking at how pitchers have pitched so far. Not looking at how you think they will pitch going forward and most importantly in the playoffs. That's were Soria rises above other guys in my opinion. A more proven guy with closer experience, that has a history of doing well against righties and lefties, along with an above average BAbip this year. Just my two cents. Soria has allowed a .323 BABIP. After .329 last year and .323 the year before. Over the last three years, he ranks 147th out of FanFraphs' 160 qualified relievers in MLB.
In that time frame he ranks 127th in their "Clutch" measure. Hembree ranks 100th. Just because a guy once had good enough stuff to close doesn't say anything at all about his response to pressure situations. Looking at the sorted list, there's no apparent correlation between "Clutch" (an imperfect measure, but still informative) and having been a closer. Chason Shreve is 2nd and Roberto Osuna is 150th.
So yes, I think all the evidence is that you'd rather have Hembree than Soria pitch the 6th. The more the opposing team is good at making contact, the more you'd want Hembree.
Are you holding a pitcher's BABIP against him? What percentage of Soria's BABIP issues is the defense behind him? If you look at Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes' statcast data, their xwOBA is .313 and .280 respectively. Hembree is also at .280. Soria is at .285 (actual .264), which is much better than Kelly. I guess I don't really understand your methodology on how you've come up with your lists.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 15, 2018 18:25:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 15, 2018 18:36:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Jul 15, 2018 19:41:57 GMT -5
The Japanese should stop interfering in our selections!
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Jul 15, 2018 21:11:53 GMT -5
I’m sure Japanese teams are also interested in mookie Betts...there is no way they let Buttrey just walk
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 15, 2018 23:47:27 GMT -5
Translation: someone from the Mets told Sherman the Sox had asked about Familia. But it's not remotely credible. In fact, it's laughable.
He's a guy whose career splits give you pause even before you look at the season he's having.
He's allowed a .764 OPS to 3 and 4 hitters versus .486 to 7 through 9 (excluding P), which means he fattens his stats against the dregs. To put that in context, Kimbrel has been .033 better against 7 through 9 ... and .180 better against 3 and 4.
He's been weirdly worse at home his whole career despite pitching in pitcher's parks. He'd be scary in Fenway. To his teammates.
He's had a career split of being much better on 2+ days rest than on 0 or 1, whereas most relievers are best on 1 days rest. It's really exaggerated this year.
Statcast has his luck on balls in play this year as neutral relative to league ... and he has a .321 BABIP. Just another guy who throws it hard and lets it get hit. He's barely above average in WPA (98 WPA-) and has a 91 xFIP-. Only his 1 HR allowed brings his xWPA- down to 91.
If he were on this team and pitching the 7th, everyone on this board would have DFA'd him already.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2018 0:25:19 GMT -5
I have to strongly disagree the better teams like the Yankees and Astros is why I want Soria. He limits walks and HRs. Also the White Sox have the worst team D in Baseball. Soria 1.167 whip, 8.3 H/9, .5 HR/9, 2.3 W/9, 11.3 K/9, 2.75 ERA, 2.19 FIP, .326 BAbip, .232 .283 .317 .600 line .8 bwar, 1.2 fwar Hembree 1.1293 whip, 7.4 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.2 W/9, 12.1 K/9, 3.96 ERA, 3.53 FIP, .297 BAbip, .222 .301, .396 .697 line, .6 bwar, .4 fwar I don't know about you Eric but I prefer the guy that limits HRs and walks against the good teams that make contact. He might give up an extra single, compared to Hembree giving up more walks and harder contact. As much as I like Hembree there is a reason he's never pitched in the postseason. At the sametime Soria career BAbip is still .288, which leads me to believe the last few years have been more bad luck and bad D. The worst team D in the league doesn't help. There's no evidence at all that Soria fares relatively better than Hembree against elite hitters. You can't assess that by looking at pitching numbers. A guy who piles up strikeouts may be doing it against crap hitters. Like ... Joakim Soria.
Heath Hembree has allowed a .780 OPS in his career to 3 and 4 hitters. Joakim Soria? .783. In fact, Soria has a titanic split by opposing hitter quality, having held 7 through 9 hitters to .524 versus Hembree's .741.
According to BP, the bad White Sox defense has added 0.43 to Soria's RA while the bad Red Sox defense has added 0.40 to Hembree.
Statcast has Hembree with a .266 xwOBA (adjusted for MLB average difference) and Soria with a .271.
FG has Hembree as +.29 clutch and Soria as -.28, which is half a win or 5 runs better. Hembree thus has an 0.70 WPA and Soria an 0.09.
In high leverage:
.289 / .360 / .422 Soria
.200 / .302 / .343 Hembree
In low leverage:
.221 / .268 / .286 Soria .270 / .345 / .486 Hembree
So, let's get this straight. When you look at just strikeouts, walks, exit velocity, and launch angle, Hembree's having the slightly better year. OTOH, Hembree has a very small career split between elite hitters and crap hitters while Soria has a huge one. However, Hembree has been very good this year with the game on the line and terrible in garbage time while Soria has struggled with the game on the line and dominated otherwise.
(BTW, if you give up a lot of base hits, it inflates all of your stats per 9 innings. K/9 says that a guy who gives up 3 hits and 2 walks and fans 2 in a relief appearance was as good at striking out hitters as a guy who fans 2 and gets a popup. Never use /9 stats.)
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2018 8:46:44 GMT -5
The Giants are now using Will Smith as their closer, so he and Tony Watson aren't really redundant pieces.
It's important to realize that even with three pitchers on the DL, we have seven or eight guys in the pen you'd trust to pitch in an MLB game (Poyner would be 8). Depth is not a problem, and any trade for a reliever that makes sense would, I think, send someone away. The idea is to trade years of control for a short-term upgrade in quality.
It's also important to realize that if our setup relief had been perfect in games we lost, we'd have one more win. Kimbrel's two blown saves actually represent the majority of our relief failures this year. The upgrade here is designed for the post-season.
There are three guys that seem to make sense.
Kirby Yates. Two years of control and a guy who could compete to be Kimbel's replacement. It seems unlikely, because the Padres always ask for too much and out farm system is so thin.
Zach Britton. It seems counter-intuitive that Heath Hembree should have more on-paper trade value than Britton, but teams have become hugely more rational about deadline deals. To begin with, there's no guarantee that Britton ends up being as good as he used to be; you have to value him as a good 8th inning guy. Would you trade 3 1/3 years of Hembree for 1/3 years of Matt Barnes? No. It's not enough of an upgrade.
Adam Ottavino. The downgrade from FA Ottavino to Thornburg, Hembree, or Workman would be very unlikely to affect the Rockies' chance of making the playoffs, but the upgrade for us in a single postseason could be a big difference. Trading the remaining 1/3 year of Ottavino's control for 3 1/3 of Hembree (or 2 1/3 of an increasingly looking-good Thornburg) should be an easy decision.
Now, there will be a lot of other teams going after the same guys, but I don't think you can underestimate the difference between offering three years of control of a pretty good MLB reliever versus a couple of minor league arms who are likelier than not to never be above-average. I like our chances of getting Britton, Ottavino, or even both.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2018 12:57:37 GMT -5
Eric there is evidence that Soria is better, if they both basically have the same OPS against 3-4 hitters. Soria has a long good track record. You just act like that means nothing, which is crazy. Nevermind you're doing what you always do which is breaking down a very small number of innings, into even way smaller groups. For example how many times per year does Hembree face number 3-4 hitters versus Soria? Relievers pitch very limited innings, breaking that down even further is crazy. You start getting into one game or even one at bat majorly influencing the numbers. It's the exact reason you're the only person that will ever use leverage or clutch stats when talking about relievers. In a given season you are taking like 60 to 70 innings and breaking that down into like blocks of 10 innings. Which is crazy. Anyone that knows stats knows when you do that the numbers become useless.
Why in the world would you act like Soria dominating the bottom of the order is a bad thing? That's what you want your good relievers to do. That's a huge negative in my opinion on Hembree. Just a guess but I bet Hembree has faced the bottom of the order a lot more than he has the number 3-4 hitters.
Hembree has a .303 wOBA, Soria has a .264 wOBA, they both have an expected wOBA of .285. Barnes is .235 .280, Kelly is .274 .313. Soria has been better than everyone but Kimbrel and Barnes using statcast data. While xwOBA is great and a very good useful tool, the one that matters is wOBA. I care about results, not expected results because a player can easily under or over perform those for a full year. Look at Bradley we've seen him greatly over perform and greatly under perform his xwOBA in a given year.
Are you kidding about per 9 numbers? The difference between Hembree and Soria is .9 per hits 9 innings. Hembree has the much higher whip because of his high walk rate. If anyones numbers are inflated its Hembrees because of his walks. Its like you don't get Soria has a 1.167 whip and Hembree has a 1.293. Based on your comments you'd think it was the opposite.
Soria is a proven relief pitcher, who has had a bwar over 1 six times and on his way to seven this year. He's had an fwar over 1 seven times including this year. He either has or will most likely be over 1 bwar and fwar in 3 of the last 4 years. Hembree has never had a single season over 1 war using bwar and fwar. Maybe he does this year or maybe this is just a hot stretch for him. We just don't know, but we do know Soria has a good track record. This isn't some fluke run by Soria. Nevermind if you want to go by statcast data, the guy that needs replacing is Kelly who is by far the worst, yet you keep acting like he's good.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2018 14:37:16 GMT -5
Eric there is evidence that Soria is better, if they both basically have the same OPS against 3-4 hitters. Soria has a long good track record. You just act like that means nothing, which is crazy. Nevermind you're doing what you always do which is breaking down a very small number of innings, into even way smaller groups. For example how many times per year does Hembree face number 3-4 hitters versus Soria? Relievers pitch very limited innings, breaking that down even further is crazy. You start getting into one game or even one at bat majorly influencing the numbers. It's the exact reason you're the only person that will ever use leverage or clutch stats when talking about relievers. In a given season you are taking like 60 to 70 innings and breaking that down into like blocks of 10 innings. Which is crazy. Anyone that knows stats knows when you do that the numbers become useless. Why in the world would you act like Soria dominating the bottom of the order is a bad thing? That's what you want your good relievers to do. That's a huge negative in my opinion on Hembree. Just a guess but I bet Hembree has faced the bottom of the order a lot more than he has the number 3-4 hitters. Hembree has a .303 wOBA, Soria has a .264 wOBA, they both have an expected wOBA of .285. Barnes is .235 .280, Kelly is .274 .313. Soria has been better than everyone but Kimbrel and Barnes using statcast data. While xwOBA is great and a very good useful tool, the one that matters is wOBA. I care about results, not expected results because a player can easily under or over perform those for a full year. Look at Bradley we've seen him greatly over perform and greatly under perform his xwOBA in a given year. Are you kidding about per 9 numbers? The difference between Hembree and Soria is .9 per hits 9 innings. Hembree has the much higher whip because of his high walk rate. If anyones numbers are inflated its Hembrees because of his walks. Its like you don't get Soria has a 1.167 whip and Hembree has a 1.293. Based on your comments you'd think it was the opposite. Soria is a proven relief pitcher, who has had a bwar over 1 six times and on his way to seven this year. He's had an fwar over 1 seven times including this year. He either has or will most likely be over 1 bwar and fwar in 3 of the last 4 years. Hembree has never had a single season over 1 war using bwar and fwar. Maybe he does this year or maybe this is just a hot stretch for him. We just don't know, but we do know Soria has a good track record. This isn't some fluke run by Soria. Nevermind if you want to go by statcast data, the guy that needs replacing is Kelly who is by far the worst, yet you keep acting like he's good. You're missing my point here, probably because I haven't made it clear. It's absolutely true that Soria is roughly as good as the guys we have ...
So why would we acquire him? Why pay the cost of get him to compete with Barnes to pitch the 8th? Note that xwOBA does not include the ability to avoid getting the ball pulled, and to instead get hitters to hit it to the deeper part of the ballpark. Soria's Pull% has been quite a bit higher than Barnes' the last three years (.362, .415, .398 for Soria, .330, .354, 311 for Barnes; that's 28% more balls pulled against Soria than Barnes this year).
Hold it .. by switching from Hembree to Barnes, I've just moved the goalposts, haven't I? But I put them on the 20 yard line to begin with. If I can make an argument that Soria might not be an upgrade over Hembree, why would you target him?
The dealbreaker for me is Soria's career splits by batting order position. It's true that Hembree's career splits may not be meaningful. But Soria's is a big sample: 584 PA vs. 791.
3 & 4, 7 -9
.783, .524 Soria .584, .452 Kimbrel .460, .514 Chapman
This split really works as a predictor of performance against elite lineups. I ran these numbers for all the Cardinals' rotation before the '04 WS and they were really bad, whereupon I asserted that they had no chance against us at all, 105 wins notwithstanding. John Henry read that analysis (on Sons of Sam Horn) and it may well have been a factor in his hiring me.
And when I worked for the Sox I did regression analyses on free agent salaries. I threw in as many factors as I could think of that might be predictive, e.g., hometown discount for guys that resigned. This split was significant for free agent relievers. After factoring in all the obvious stuff, guys who also had good splits got more money than guys with bad splits. I very much doubt that any team had numbers breaking down performance by opposing hitter quality. What they did have, however, were scouting reports that reflected the same thing. "This guy's stuff will play up in the playoffs, I've seen him make great hitters look helpless" versus the opposite.
Had Soria had Kimbrel's splits, I would have pulled a 180. It would indicate that all of the high BABIP was bad defense, and so on. But he has been absolutely ordinary against the best hitters his whole career. It's the reason he was never elite, in all likelihood.
Yeah, the clutch stuff probably isn't predictive. I did the comparison because there are folks who are convinced that Hembree is a choker ... and he did have big, bad leverage splits earlier in his career, but they've long since turned to neutral.
The bottom line is that Soria would be a good addition to a team with bullpen problems. We've been elite and have elite depth. The bar for being good enough to make a difference for us is very, very high for a RHR. Again: setup relief has been one win less than perfect.
Incidentally, Soria has a career 2 4 5 5 3 3 line in the post-season, as an 8th inning guy for the Tigers (2014) an Pirates (2015).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2018 14:48:53 GMT -5
Are you kidding about per 9 numbers? It's a general point about using data that has nothing to do with this debate -- sorry I didn't make that clear. /9 stats aren't as misleading as W/L records, but they are also known to include stuff that has nothing to do with what you're trying to measure ... so why use them? In fact, among 164 FG qualified relieves, Soria ranks 36th in K% (the actual measure) but 32nd in K/9, and Hembree ranks 25th and 20th. They both seem to strike out more batters than they actually do if you use K/9, because they allow more batters to reach base per inning than the average qualifier.
|
|
|
Post by awall on Jul 17, 2018 10:24:52 GMT -5
Is Buttrey going to get a chance? If not, anyone who's seen him have any insight why not?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2018 10:36:49 GMT -5
Is Buttrey going to get a chance? If not, anyone who's seen him have any insight why not? He's almost sure to get called up when rosters expand I would guess. Especially with the Japan rumors.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2018 10:49:55 GMT -5
They have him working on some specific things. Fine-tuning him so he doesn’t get blown up when he debuts
i think I’ve read that on here. He was coming up in the next month and a half regardless of all the Japan nonsense (and that’s what it is...nonsense)
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 17, 2018 11:02:28 GMT -5
Is Buttrey going to get a chance? If not, anyone who's seen him have any insight why not? He's almost sure to get called up when rosters expand I would guess. Especially with the Japan rumors. Two things with the whole "Buttrey-to-Japan rumors" thing (and you're not the first person to bring it up). 1. He can't just up and go to Japan. He can ask and the Red Sox would likely oblige in the offseason, but if he's not good enough to get called up on his merit alone then they'd likely oblige pretty happily. 2. "This player might end up in Japan" stories get to reporters from sources that are never in Japan, if you get my drift. I'm guessing it's either a source close to Buttrey (probably an agent) who wants to see him promoted, or a source with the Red Sox trying to boost his value.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2018 11:34:42 GMT -5
He's almost sure to get called up when rosters expand I would guess. Especially with the Japan rumors. Two things with the whole "Buttrey-to-Japan rumors" thing (and you're not the first person to bring it up). 1. He can't just up and go to Japan. He can ask and the Red Sox would likely oblige in the offseason, but if he's not good enough to get called up on his merit alone then they'd likely oblige pretty happily. 2. "This player might end up in Japan" stories get to reporters from sources that are never in Japan, if you get my drift. I'm guessing it's either a source close to Buttrey (probably an agent) who wants to see him promoted, or a source with the Red Sox trying to boost his value. I figured that was the case, but I also figured that the team could definitely use him so it's not really doing him a "favor".
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2018 12:00:19 GMT -5
So Tyler Thornburg has appeared in 5 games. He has been scored on in 3 of these games. It's early, but the Sox aren't in a good position to carry Thornburg if he continues to struggle. He has options and they should option him if he does continue to struggle. The Sox definitely need another arm in the bullpen though. It's kind of weird that this team has 3 critical holes on this team and is arguably having it's best season ever. 2nd base, starting pitcher, and bullpen. It'll be even more clear if they need another starter after Pomeranz's next start too. So, I've just spent an hour with Statcast data. I've verified that the difference between xwOBA and wOBA is indeed a function of where you allow hitters to hit the ball. Specifically, the higher your Cent% is, the lower your actual wOBA is relative to xwOBA. Pull% vs. Opp% makes no difference at all. It's not a huge effect, but it's absolutely measurable. Players who are a standard deviation (.040) better than average at getting balls hit to CF tend to beat their xSA by .006 and their xwOBA by .003. Much more importantly to this discussion, I've come up with beautiful rules of thumb / standards for relievers. All the data that follows use my Cent% adjustment.
A closer for a contender should have an xwOBA of .255 or better. That would typically rank him among the 15 best relievers in all of MLB (actually 16 this year). In reality, only 7 of the pitchers who qualify at present are closers: Will Smith, Doolittle, Hader, Diaz, Chapman, Treinen, and Kimbrel.
An 8th inning guy should be .275 or better. That puts you in the top 45, so you're one of the next 30 guys (actually 32 this year).
A 7th inning guy should be .290 or better. That puts you among the next 30 guys again (actually 29 this year).
Matt Barnes is .274. Since Kimbrel is .254, Matt Barnes has been exactly as good an 8th inning guy as Kimbrel has been a closer: about average for a contender (in practice). Heath Hembree is .287. He's been the 69th best reliever in baseball based on strikeouts, walks, launch angle, hardness of contact, and location of balls in play. If you had a draft of relievers by this metric, only 10 teams would have a #3 man that good. And he can go two innings at a time!
Would we love to have another guy even better? Obviously! Is he good enough? Absolutely.
Familia is .288. Rodney is .291. Soria is .284, but his career difficulty with elite hitters makes him project to be no better than Hembree in the post-season. And none of those guys can go 2 innings.
Workman's been .310 and Kelly's been .311. Those are still better than average, but they're 6th inning-guy numbers. If you think back to Kelly's great run, he did seem to give up a lot of loud outs. He's probably just a 7th inning guy in his good streaks, when you take out the luck. Better than Hembree, but not better than Barnes. Now it gets interesting. Ryan Brasier has faced just 21 guys, but his stuff looks filthy and he's put up a .271 (which is actually .255 plus my Cent% adjustment). Right now they've got to start letting him pitch in higher leverage. They should still try to land Britton at the right price, and if they do, and if Brasier is for real, they should deal Workman, or Kelly if some team is intrigued by his upside and wants to take a chance on it.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2018 15:22:35 GMT -5
Eric why on earth do you keep acting like expected numbers are the actual numbers? Hembrees actual wOBA is a lot higher than his xwOBA. Hembree wOBA .299, Soria is .260, and Familia is .274. Nevermind ESPN just did a great article on trade acquisitions and the number one thing you use to predict future performance was past track record. Guys greatly over performing their career numbers are much more likely to get worse and guys greatly underperforming will likely get better. Yet you just keep overlooking that. Expected wOBA is not designed to be used to show value, that is wOBA. You have to know that players can greatly under or over perform expected results for the whole year right? Just look at Bradley as a prime example. Guys like Soria and Familia have proven trade records, Hembree doesn't. Nevermind most of Hembrees success was in one great month and he hasn't been that good in July. You also keep comparing Hembree who they pick easier spots to use him, against guys that are closers. Teams don't go ok the bottom of the order is coming up lets insert Soria and Familia like they do with Hembree.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2018 15:39:58 GMT -5
Eric why on earth do you keep acting like expected numbers are the actual numbers? Hembrees actual wOBA is a lot higher than his xwOBA. Hembree wOBA .299, Soria is .260, and Familia is .274. Nevermind ESPN just did a great article on trade acquisitions and the number one thing you use to predict future performance was past track record. Guys greatly over performing their career numbers are much more likely to get worse and guys greatly underperforming will likely get better. Yet you just keep overlooking that. Expected wOBA is not designed to be used to show value, that is wOBA. You have to know that players can greatly under or over perform expected results for the whole year right? Just look at Bradley as a prime example. Guys like Soria and Familia have proven trade records, Hembree doesn't. Nevermind most of Hembrees success was in one great month and he hasn't been that good in July. You also keep comparing Hembree who they pick easier spots to use him, against guys that are closers. Teams don't go ok the bottom of the order is coming up lets insert Soria and Familia like they do with Hembree. Expected numbers are an indicator of how well or poorly a pitchers has actually pitched as opposed to how lucky or unlucky he has gotten because of defense and BABIP luck. If the pitcher continued to pitch the same exact way, his wOBA should come close to approaching his xwOBA the more innings they pitch. And yeah there are other factors, but it's about as good as we can get at predicting the future (if they continue pitching the same way).
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2018 15:52:18 GMT -5
Eric why on earth do you keep acting like expected numbers are the actual numbers? Hembrees actual wOBA is a lot higher than his xwOBA. Hembree wOBA .299, Soria is .260, and Familia is .274. Nevermind ESPN just did a great article on trade acquisitions and the number one thing you use to predict future performance was past track record. Guys greatly over performing their career numbers are much more likely to get worse and guys greatly underperforming will likely get better. Yet you just keep overlooking that. Expected wOBA is not designed to be used to show value, that is wOBA. You have to know that players can greatly under or over perform expected results for the whole year right? Just look at Bradley as a prime example. Guys like Soria and Familia have proven trade records, Hembree doesn't. Nevermind most of Hembrees success was in one great month and he hasn't been that good in July. You also keep comparing Hembree who they pick easier spots to use him, against guys that are closers. Teams don't go ok the bottom of the order is coming up lets insert Soria and Familia like they do with Hembree. Expected numbers are an indicator of how well or poorly a pitchers has actually pitched as opposed to how lucky or unlucky he has gotten because of defense and BABIP luck. If the pitcher continued to pitch the same exact way, his wOBA should come close to approaching his xwOBA the more innings they pitch. And yeah there are other factors, but it's about as good as we can get at predicting the future (if they continue pitching the same way). I know what they are, but your last part is my whole point if they continue pitching the same way. That's why you need to be looking at past performance also. That helps you determine if they will most likely keep pitching the same way or close to it. You really need to dig deeper into each player rather than just using expected wOBA. That's where guys like Soria and Familia have a huge advantage over Hembree. Nevermind both Soria and Familia have had a lower wOBA the last two years than xwOBA. A guy like Bradley has greatly over produced for two years, then greatly under produced for two years. It can help you predict, but it doesn't tell you who is better currently.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 16:21:30 GMT -5
I've been all in on the Brasier hype train since day one. Now the numbers are backing it up finally.
|
|
|