ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2018 0:01:50 GMT -5
This is somewhat amazing.
Red Sox record in games the opponents were the first team to reach a 75% chance of winning the game:
10-18 (.357)
Red Sox record in games where they were the first team to reach a 75% chance of winning the game:
49-1 (.980)
The loss was opening day. So we're riding a 49-game win streak after being the first to establish 1-3 odds of winning.
There have been 3 games where the opponents got to 75%, then the Sox came back and did it themselves, and the Sox ended up losing. So we've come back to a 75% Win Probability in 42% of the games where we were below 25%.
Another way of looking at this is that the Sox pen is 49-1 at protecting an initial significant lead, but only 10-3 at protecting a significant lead after a significant comeback.
The odds of that being random are 2.5% ... which means that there's a 46.5% chance that 1 team in 30 will have a split that big. It's very likely random.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 6, 2018 0:24:24 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2018 0:28:19 GMT -5
Lol Chris Sale won the 50 first games battle, but Pedro was untouchable from the second half of 1999 until the end of 2000. Pedro's first 100 games won't be topped I'm sure. Still, it shows you how great Sale has been.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 6, 2018 0:49:43 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2018 10:59:12 GMT -5
Since June 6th: .292/.312/.519. 122 wRC+. I am still really really high on him.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 6, 2018 13:25:21 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, those eight other players all had an OBP at least 60 points higher than Devers does right now. Putting all of those moderately-impressive (but by no means dominant) qualifiers into a search will often come up with very few results, and usually those results will be superstars, but looking at their numbers, they blow what Devers is currently doing out of the water. It was like that time that Johnny Damon was one of only five players in history to have A hits, B doubles, C triples, D homers, and E steals, but none of those numbers on their own were particularly historic. I think Devers is going to be an excellent, possibly dominant, player in the near future. But let's not pretend like his adjustment hasn't been one.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2018 14:57:00 GMT -5
Yeah, Sale is fanning more batters than Pedro, and Solo just outgrossed the Empire Strikes Back domestically.
These sorts of comparisons are meaningless without adjusting for era
AL hitters are striking out 40% more in 2018 than they did in 2000. Pedro was averaging close to 15 K/9 in today's strikeout currency.
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