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7/12-7/15 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 13, 2018 1:31:32 GMT -5
Price gave up 3ER, Happ 0ER, and now has a better ERA than Price. Tough break for which? The way that ERA deals with errors is deeply flawed. The error that cost Happ 5 unearned runs costs you 0.7 runs on average.
Even if you're not going to adjust ER for changes in Run Expectancy, after what would have been the 3rd out, Happ gave up a walk to JBJ and a HR to Mookie. How is that not two earned runs? The "what-if" inning reconstructions that are used to determine which runs are earned and which unearned assume that the batters do the same thing even though the base/out situation would have been different. In which case, JBJ and Mookie lead off the next inning. Two earned runs. (And in fact, if they had changed pitchers to face JBJ, those runs would have earned for the pitcher but unearned for the team.)
It makes no sense. You can get the first 2 outs in an inning, have the catcher drop a foul pop, and then give up ten straight home runs, and they would all be unearned runs. However, if you retired a batter after the first five homers -- which is actually pitching better -- and then gave up homers to the next four guys, that would be four earned runs.
I just hate the assuming the samething happens, under a different set of conditions. We've seen pitchers get out of a jam then get 10 guys out in a row. Do you really think a pitcher getting rest can't change the outcome?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 13, 2018 1:35:57 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2018 2:41:39 GMT -5
Mookie's blast was just the second 13-pitch GS since we have pitch count data. The Cubs' Gary Scott did it on April 20, 1992. Amazingly, that was on a 2-2 count, so Mookie's blast is unique of those on record. There are no 12-pitch GS's and just 6 on the 11th pitch (all on 3-2).
It's also just the 2nd 10+ pitch GS to put a trailing team in the lead. Bobby Bonilla hit a 10th-pitch walkoff GS (on a 2-2 count, the only other instance for 10+ pitches) trailing 6-5, for the Marlins in 1997. In contrast, there have been 11 tiebreaking 11-pitch GS.
In Devers, Xander, and Mookie, Sox have 3 of the 9 players who have 2 GS this year.
There are just 2 pitchers who have given up 3 GS's: Jason Hammel, who gave up Xander's 2nd, and Happ, who gave up Betts' 2nd.
Sox had 6 GS in April and the Reds 0; since then they have 9 and we have 2. But they're the only team with more.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2018 3:31:11 GMT -5
In Devers, Xander, and Mookie, Sox have 3 of the 9 players who have 2 GS this year. Not one grand slam last year as a reminder. Lol. Now all they do is hit Grand Slams.
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Post by p23w on Jul 13, 2018 7:14:58 GMT -5
Well, we won... kinda'. Although from my perspective this one was "given" to us. No matter. I will, however be curious as to the "tone" of the remainder of the series. Whilst I enjoy well played baseball I wouldn't mind if the Jays imploded this week end. No Encarnacion and Donaldson could very well lead to that implosion. And as to the Price versus Happ controversy.... the winner is Mookie Betts.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2018 8:28:32 GMT -5
Yeah....best record to this point in my lifetime......Seems like we have won a lot of pretty close games. Wonder what Pythag says. Pythag has them at +2. The Astros are at -5. Yankees are +1 and Mariners are +10.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2018 8:32:58 GMT -5
I'm interested to see how Price pitches with Sandy behind the plate. The last time Sandy caught him was his complete game near-shutout. Edit- Price needs to throw more and more changeups these days. Every single pitcher is throwing their fastball less lately. It's like what happened in the playoffs last season. Looks like it's going to end up being permanent.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2018 8:55:19 GMT -5
Cora announced the post-ASB rotation, and it lines up Sale, Porcello, and E-Rod to pitch the first three games against the MFY's, all on extra rest, with Price on extra rest or TBD (Pomeranz or Wright) to pitch the final game. He did? Where? If that's the case then July 29th against the Twins would be E-Rod, not Chris Sale, correct? So Cora is lining up the rotation to feature Sale, Porcello, E-Rod, and whoever to face the Yankees instead of prioritizing Chris Sale to pitch against the Twins on the 29th when I have tickets? Jeez, I wish Cora would get his priorities straight!If that holds I guess I draw whoever starts that 4th game of the Yankees series (would Cora go with Price or avoid it?) on Aug 23rd against Cleveland, which is the other game I've got tickets for. I've still yet to see Sale pitch
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Post by jchang on Jul 13, 2018 9:47:53 GMT -5
The way that ERA deals with errors is deeply flawed. The error that cost Happ 5 unearned runs costs you 0.7 runs on average.
Even if you're not going to adjust ER for changes in Run Expectancy, after what would have been the 3rd out, Happ gave up a walk to JBJ and a HR to Mookie. How is that not two earned runs? The "what-if" inning reconstructions that are used to determine which runs are earned and which unearned assume that the batters do the same thing even though the base/out situation would have been different. In which case, JBJ and Mookie lead off the next inning. Two earned runs. (And in fact, if they had changed pitchers to face JBJ, those runs would have earned for the pitcher but unearned for the team.)
It makes no sense. You can get the first 2 outs in an inning, have the catcher drop a foul pop, and then give up ten straight home runs, and they would all be unearned runs. However, if you retired a batter after the first five homers -- which is actually pitching better -- and then gave up homers to the next four guys, that would be four earned runs.
I just hate the assuming the samething happens, under a different set of conditions. We've seen pitchers get out of a jam then get 10 guys out in a row. Do you really think a pitcher getting rest can't change the outcome? I was just making a joke that Happ won the ERA contest. Only in Boston with the Sox on an epic season do we find reason to complain about past signing "mistakes" etc. Still, the other pivotal (non-)play in the inning was the 1B (Smoak) just barely failing to get Mookie on a pop-up foul (not far from my friends season ticket seats, though I failed to get an invite to this game). So basically, Happ got two consequential events of bad luck in the inning, the other being quick foot Devon. Napoleon Bonaparte once said, on being extolled the virtues of a particular general, "..., but is he lucky?" edit: and oh yeah, we should also count the Nunez single versus the expected (in this forum) GIDP as a minor miracle, and third piece of bad luck for Happ.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2018 10:18:23 GMT -5
Cora announced the post-ASB rotation, and it lines up Sale, Porcello, and E-Rod to pitch the first three games against the MFY's, all on extra rest, with Price on extra rest or TBD (Pomeranz or Wright) to pitch the final game. He did? Where?If that's the case then July 29th against the Twins would be E-Rod, not Chris Sale, correct? So Cora is lining up the rotation to feature Sale, Porcello, E-Rod, and whoever to face the Yankees instead of prioritizing Chris Sale to pitch against the Twins on the 29th when I have tickets? Jeez, I wish Cora would get his priorities straight!If that holds I guess I draw whoever starts that 4th game of the Yankees series (would Cora go with Price or avoid it?) on Aug 23rd against Cleveland, which is the other game I've got tickets for. I've still yet to see Sale pitch
Yes, you'll see E-Rod on the 29th, but Porcello on the 23rd. TBD starts are July 21, 26, 31.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2018 10:38:52 GMT -5
He did? Where?If that's the case then July 29th against the Twins would be E-Rod, not Chris Sale, correct? So Cora is lining up the rotation to feature Sale, Porcello, E-Rod, and whoever to face the Yankees instead of prioritizing Chris Sale to pitch against the Twins on the 29th when I have tickets? Jeez, I wish Cora would get his priorities straight!If that holds I guess I draw whoever starts that 4th game of the Yankees series (would Cora go with Price or avoid it?) on Aug 23rd against Cleveland, which is the other game I've got tickets for. I've still yet to see Sale pitch Yes, you'll see E-Rod on the 29th, but Porcello on the 23rd. TBD starts are July 21, 26, 31.
Thanks!
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2018 10:50:33 GMT -5
Benintendi to the bereavement list. Sam Travis called up.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 13, 2018 10:54:41 GMT -5
I know we've won 10 straight but its a bit concerning they are going to be without Benintendi and Devers these final 3 games here. Its taken forever to get even a small lead on the Yankees it'd be a shame if the Yankees get a couple of those games right back before the break.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jul 13, 2018 13:30:48 GMT -5
Any updates on Pearce?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2018 14:56:03 GMT -5
XRays negative, but I imagine he'll be out until after the allstar break. That looked like it hurt. That's why I imagine Sam Travis was called up.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2018 15:01:39 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 13, 2018 15:37:02 GMT -5
Media reports today said Pearce is day-to-day, I'd imagine they will try and get him in tomorrow or Sunday. We're already without Benintendi and Devers and the bottom of our lineup could be a bit of a black hole these last 3 games. 3 days for bereavement for Benintendi is a lot...
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art
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Posts: 337
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Post by art on Jul 13, 2018 15:49:48 GMT -5
Media reports today said Pearce is day-to-day, I'd imagine they will try and get him in tomorrow or Sunday. We're already without Benintendi and Devers and the bottom of our lineup could be a bit of a black hole these last 3 games. 3 days for bereavement for Benintendi is a lot... It's the minimum number of days for bereavement leave.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2018 15:54:41 GMT -5
Media reports today said Pearce is day-to-day, I'd imagine they will try and get him in tomorrow or Sunday. We're already without Benintendi and Devers and the bottom of our lineup could be a bit of a black hole these last 3 games. 3 days for bereavement for Benintendi is a lot... Why is 3 days for bereavement a lot? I'd hope you're at a place of employment that allows for 3 days of bereavement for immediate family members? Can't imagine a scenario where your employer would say, "Oh, your family member passed away? Well, we'll give you a day but you better be at work the next day". (Guess they could, but that wouldn't be legal.). Between grieving upon the passing of an immediate family member and then the subsequent funeral, I don't know why you'd think 3 days is too long.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2018 17:30:07 GMT -5
The difference between last year's hitting approach and this year's. This is the biggest difference Cora and his staff has brought in their time here. Xander has turned into a monster because of it.
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art
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Posts: 337
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Post by art on Jul 13, 2018 17:51:25 GMT -5
Media reports today said Pearce is day-to-day, I'd imagine they will try and get him in tomorrow or Sunday. We're already without Benintendi and Devers and the bottom of our lineup could be a bit of a black hole these last 3 games. 3 days for bereavement for Benintendi is a lot... Why is 3 days for bereavement a lot? I'd hope you're at a place of employment that allows for 3 days of bereavement for immediate family members? Can't imagine a scenario where your employer would say, "Oh, your family member passed away? Well, we'll give you a day but you better be at work the next day". (Guess they could, but that wouldn't be legal.). Between grieving upon the passing of an immediate family member and then the subsequent funeral, I don't know why you'd think 3 days is too long. It's my guess that the 3-day requirement is a part of the CBA. That way the player doesn't feel any pressure to take less because he can't. I'm a lawyer and I'm not aware of any law that requires any bereavement leave whatsoever. 48 years ago I was working at a summer job at the Boston Redevelopment Authority when my mother died. I was told that I could take one day off. I guess it was city policy. I told them that I'd be back when I was ready to do so. Three days at a minimum seems reasonable to me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2018 18:11:50 GMT -5
Why is 3 days for bereavement a lot? I'd hope you're at a place of employment that allows for 3 days of bereavement for immediate family members? Can't imagine a scenario where your employer would say, "Oh, your family member passed away? Well, we'll give you a day but you better be at work the next day". (Guess they could, but that wouldn't be legal.). Between grieving upon the passing of an immediate family member and then the subsequent funeral, I don't know why you'd think 3 days is too long. It's my guess that the 3-day requirement is a part of the CBA. That way the player doesn't feel any pressure to take less because he can't. I'm a lawyer and I'm not aware of any law that requires any bereavement leave whatsoever. 48 years ago I was working at a summer job at the Boston Redevelopment Authority when my mother died. I was told that I could take one day off. I guess it was city policy. I told them that I'd be back when I was ready to do so. Three days at a minimum seems reasonable to me. Ah, I misunderstood. I thought it was some sort of regulation. Where I am employed, it's 3 days for an immediate relative and 1 day for a non-immediate family member, although I disagree at some of what doesn't qualify. Between grieving and a funeral, sometimes which is out of town, 3 days seems reasonable to me, too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2018 18:22:13 GMT -5
Mookie is putting up the best offensive season I'll ever see by a Sox player.
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Post by wildsox on Jul 13, 2018 18:25:33 GMT -5
I love Mookie leadoff. The pitcher better be zoned in from the first pitch of the game
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 13, 2018 18:29:14 GMT -5
Media reports today said Pearce is day-to-day, I'd imagine they will try and get him in tomorrow or Sunday. We're already without Benintendi and Devers and the bottom of our lineup could be a bit of a black hole these last 3 games. 3 days for bereavement for Benintendi is a lot... Why is 3 days for bereavement a lot? I'd hope you're at a place of employment that allows for 3 days of bereavement for immediate family members? Can't imagine a scenario where your employer would say, "Oh, your family member passed away? Well, we'll give you a day but you better be at work the next day". (Guess they could, but that wouldn't be legal.). Between grieving upon the passing of an immediate family member and then the subsequent funeral, I don't know why you'd think 3 days is too long. My Grandfather just died, I don’t get bereavement, and my previous employer (a well known company in Boston) offered three days per year.
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