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Post by telson13 on Aug 3, 2015 14:20:47 GMT -5
Its great that Owens is getting the call-up, I just wish it was not against a left heavy team in a left oriented ballpark Huh? Both of those things should be to his benefit: LH on LH match ups and a park that traditionally favors LHPs due to a much deeper LF than RF. That said, his delivery is pretty vertical and I don't recall much of a platoon split in his minor league career. But whatever. There's no pressure on him at all...the Sox are terrible and it's expected they'll lose in NY. The line in Vegas will probably be 2:1. If he gets bombed, meh...it helps the team (better draft position and better waiver claim position), and if he pitches OK, it's a feather in his cap. If he has a Rodriguez-esque debut, it's a nice confidence booster and an impressive performance. FWIW, I don't buy the "career-ruining debut" narrative, unless the player tried too hard and got hurt. I think for the most part, good players are the ones who thrive on consistency and bounce back well. If they can't put their last performance behind them, they'll be emotionally volatile and wash out.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 3, 2015 14:33:40 GMT -5
Tex, A-Rod, and Young are lefty smashers, but I'm optimistic. I think Owens has been mostly working on development this year and not worrying about results, but tomorrow he will be pitching to win. The Yankees never seen him before, and with his deceptive delivery, nasty changeup, and (hopefully) improved breaking ball(s) I'm predicting a good start for him. Just my uninformed opinion.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 3, 2015 14:40:22 GMT -5
Well, I agree that would be ideal but sooner or later he will have to face the iron...sort of like playing JBJ against what 3 lefties in succession? What concerns me for the particular game is that I recall Owens as more over the top... and thus less likely to neutralize the lefty heavy line-up. He does not have impeccable control and is matched against patience and power. The Yankees are also on something of an offensive roll. True Owens has not given up a lot of hits in the minors but when he has (the times I have seen him) there is hard contact. If he continually misses with his FB, watch out for the change-up to entertain as a souvenir. Obviously I hope not but I'm guessing 4+ innings 5 runs with a couple of hrs. Honestly, who cares? If he has a good debut, great, if not, it's not like it's a crucial game for us, and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy who's going to go into an emotional tailspin cause he didn't dominate his first time out. I'm in favor of getting him out there against big league hitters as much as possible Well, I for one care. I would like to see him do well especially first time out as I would for any 'first-timer'. But I am not worried about his psyche. Most of these guys are pretty battle hardened by the time they arrive. I hope though that we can see that his stuff can translate......and I have always had some misgivings. One game is not proof either way. There is absolutely no question that he has a great, correction, fantastic change-up. Anyone sitting on the FB will be dripping egg. Will he have or develop enough FB command to make maximum use of that change?...We'll see..
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Post by jmei on Aug 3, 2015 14:41:12 GMT -5
Its great that Owens is getting the call-up, I just wish it was not against a left heavy team in a left oriented ballpark Huh? Both of those things should be to his benefit: LH on LH match ups and a park that traditionally favors LHPs due to a much deeper LF than RF. That said, his delivery is pretty vertical and I don't recall much of a platoon split in his minor league career. But whatever. There's no pressure on him at all...the Sox are terrible and it's expected they'll lose in NY. The line in Vegas will probably be 2:1. If he gets bombed, meh...it helps the team (better draft position and better waiver claim position), and if he pitches OK, it's a feather in his cap. If he has a Rodriguez-esque debut, it's a nice confidence booster and an impressive performance. Owens, over his minor league career, has had significant reverse platoon splits (i.e., he's been much better versus RHH), largely because his dominant pitch (his changeup) is both more effective versus RHH and thrown more often versus RHH. Per minorleaguecentral: vs. L: 9.24 K/9, 5.87 BB/9, 4.58 FIP, 4.32 SIERA vs. R: 10.45 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 3.04 FIP, 3.05 SIERA
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Post by telson13 on Aug 3, 2015 15:17:10 GMT -5
Huh? Both of those things should be to his benefit: LH on LH match ups and a park that traditionally favors LHPs due to a much deeper LF than RF. That said, his delivery is pretty vertical and I don't recall much of a platoon split in his minor league career. But whatever. There's no pressure on him at all...the Sox are terrible and it's expected they'll lose in NY. The line in Vegas will probably be 2:1. If he gets bombed, meh...it helps the team (better draft position and better waiver claim position), and if he pitches OK, it's a feather in his cap. If he has a Rodriguez-esque debut, it's a nice confidence booster and an impressive performance. Owens, over his minor league career, has had significant reverse platoon splits (i.e., he's been much better versus RHH), largely because his dominant pitch (his changeup) is both more effective versus RHH and thrown more often versus RHH. Per minorleaguecentral: vs. L: 9.24 K/9, 5.87 BB/9, 4.58 FIP, 4.32 SIERA vs. R: 10.45 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 3.04 FIP, 3.05 SIERA Yeah, I meant I didn't recall him having a positive platoon advantage...Im not surprised at all by the reverse splits, because of his dependence on the CH. His BB rates are terrible vs LH...maybe he could stand to learn to use his CH more effectively to both sides against LH, a la Rodriguez. I know the "fade" (which becomes bore to the LHH) is supposed to mean it's going to be easier for LH to hit, but if he's not using his best pitch much against LH, he needs something he can use. Probably, hence the development of the SL. I wonder how those platoon splits have changed over time. Looking at his whole career instead of trends probably doesn't reveal the whole picture. If he hasn't evened out that reverse platoon issue, jchang's point about Owens in the stadium is dead on...he's statistically predicted to get shelled against a patient, HR-hitting LH-heavy lineup with a short RF porch.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 3, 2015 15:27:40 GMT -5
Huh? Both of those things should be to his benefit: LH on LH match ups and a park that traditionally favors LHPs due to a much deeper LF than RF. That said, his delivery is pretty vertical and I don't recall much of a platoon split in his minor league career. But whatever. There's no pressure on him at all...the Sox are terrible and it's expected they'll lose in NY. The line in Vegas will probably be 2:1. If he gets bombed, meh...it helps the team (better draft position and better waiver claim position), and if he pitches OK, it's a feather in his cap. If he has a Rodriguez-esque debut, it's a nice confidence booster and an impressive performance. Owens, over his minor league career, has had significant reverse platoon splits (i.e., he's been much better versus RHH), largely because his dominant pitch (his changeup) is both more effective versus RHH and thrown more often versus RHH. Per minorleaguecentral: vs. L: 9.24 K/9, 5.87 BB/9, 4.58 FIP, 4.32 SIERA vs. R: 10.45 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 3.04 FIP, 3.05 SIERA Interesting...he had really minimal splits last year, but this year they're back to the awful reverse #s showing up earlier in his career. This year his HR/FB numbers (1.10) and BB/9 (over 7) vs LH are truly atrocious.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 3, 2015 15:44:58 GMT -5
Owens, over his minor league career, has had significant reverse platoon splits (i.e., he's been much better versus RHH), largely because his dominant pitch (his changeup) is both more effective versus RHH and thrown more often versus RHH. Per minorleaguecentral: vs. L: 9.24 K/9, 5.87 BB/9, 4.58 FIP, 4.32 SIERA vs. R: 10.45 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 3.04 FIP, 3.05 SIERA Yeah, I meant I didn't recall him having a positive platoon advantage...Im not surprised at all by the reverse splits, because of his dependence on the CH. His BB rates are terrible vs LH...maybe he could stand to learn to use his CH more effectively to both sides against LH, a la Rodriguez. I know the "fade" (which becomes bore to the LHH) is supposed to mean it's going to be easier for LH to hit, but if he's not using his best pitch much against LH, he needs something he can use. Probably, hence the development of the SL. I wonder how those platoon splits have changed over time. Looking at his whole career instead of trends probably doesn't reveal the whole picture. If he hasn't evened out that reverse platoon issue, jchang's point about Owens in the stadium is dead on... he's statistically predicted to get shelled against a patient, HR-hitting LH-heavy lineup with a short RF porch.[/b] ichang, johnsilver, myself and at least one other poster made this point repeatedly but I think that you missed it. I don't think anyone was concerned about Owens' psyche either. We all thought that with his lack of FB command, his delivery style, the stadium dimensions including the low fence, the success the Yankees have had hitting hrs and scoring (second in baseball I believe), their patience and the fact that even their RH hitters can easily leave the park left or right raises some concern if we want the team to win. They are also on fire offensively. From my observation of Owens over 3-4 games, despite low averages against, when he gives up hits they are well-struck. The pronounced reverse split, which I had forgotten until jmei mentioned it, adds yet a further element.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 3, 2015 16:22:09 GMT -5
Look, he needs to get his feet wet. This is what it's like in Boston. If he pitches poorly and cannot recover, he's probably not meant to pitch in Boston anyway. I doubt this will be the case if does get hit hard. HO has always shown the ability and willingness to forget about the past, set aside results, and work on what he needs to work on. Tuesday will be a learning experience. That doesn't guarantee he has what it takes, but I suspect he does. It's simply a matter of whether he's more of #3 or more of #5.
If they were in the middle of a pennant race, he wouldn't be starting tomorrow night. They aren't and they need a starter. So he's up. I'm glad they aren't going to baby him or be scared away by the Yankees. Is it his best match up? No. But so what.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 3, 2015 16:50:47 GMT -5
Look, he needs to get his feet wet. This is what it's like in Boston. If he pitches poorly and cannot recover, he's probably not meant to pitch in Boston anyway. I doubt this will be the case if does get hit hard. HO has always shown the ability and willingness to forget about the past, set aside results, and work on what he needs to work on. Tuesday will be a learning experience. That doesn't guarantee he has what it takes, but I suspect he does. It's simply a matter of whether he's more of #3 or more of #5. If they were in the middle of a pennant race, he wouldn't be starting tomorrow night. They aren't and they need a starter. So he's up. I'm glad they aren't going to baby him or be scared away by the Yankees. Is it his best match up? No. But so what. Well I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you either.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 4, 2015 1:22:25 GMT -5
Yeah, I meant I didn't recall him having a positive platoon advantage...Im not surprised at all by the reverse splits, because of his dependence on the CH. His BB rates are terrible vs LH...maybe he could stand to learn to use his CH more effectively to both sides against LH, a la Rodriguez. I know the "fade" (which becomes bore to the LHH) is supposed to mean it's going to be easier for LH to hit, but if he's not using his best pitch much against LH, he needs something he can use. Probably, hence the development of the SL. I wonder how those platoon splits have changed over time. Looking at his whole career instead of trends probably doesn't reveal the whole picture. If he hasn't evened out that reverse platoon issue, jchang's point about Owens in the stadium is dead on... he's statistically predicted to get shelled against a patient, HR-hitting LH-heavy lineup with a short RF porch.[/b] ichang, johnsilver, myself and at least one other poster made this point repeatedly but I think that you missed it. I don't think anyone was concerned about Owens' psyche either. We all thought that with his lack of FB command, his delivery style, the stadium dimensions including the low fence, the success the Yankees have had hitting hrs and scoring (second in baseball I believe), their patience and the fact that even their RH hitters can easily leave the park left or right raises some concern if we want the team to win. They are also on fire offensively. From my observation of Owens over 3-4 games, despite low averages against, when he gives up hits they are well-struck. The pronounced reverse split, which I had forgotten until jmei mentioned it, adds yet a further element.[/quote] Meh, you were really the only one who mentioned my specific concerns. And yeah, I missed that. Regardless, while I'd like to see him pitch well, at this point it's probably better for all concerned that they lose, and lose enough to secure a top-3 pick.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 4, 2015 5:19:45 GMT -5
We can be pretty darn sure that the FO will give John Farrell strict orders to continue playing every veteran possible in order to avoid that scenario (top 3 pick, 100 loss area) in order to continue selling 35k tickets per home game, under ANY circumstances.
Putting a mediocre product on the field is one thing, putting up a totally lousy product that loses 100 games? Entirely different. Season ticket sales could even plummet, as could corporate support. There are repercussions (monetarily) beyond just getting a top 3 pick that habitually lousy teams.. San Diego.. Seattle.. Do not have to deal with in Boston.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 4, 2015 8:30:42 GMT -5
We can be pretty darn sure that the FO will give John Farrell strict orders to continue playing every veteran possible in order to avoid that scenario (top 3 pick, 100 loss area) in order to continue selling 35k tickets per home game, under ANY circumstances. Putting a mediocre product on the field is one thing, putting up a totally lousy product that loses 100 games? Entirely different. Season ticket sales could even plummet, as could corporate support. There are repercussions (monetarily) beyond just getting a top 3 pick that habitually lousy teams.. San Diego.. Seattle.. Do not have to deal with in Boston. Playing the veterans is what got us to this point, so I doubt it would matter if they did lean on Farrell to play them, but that makes no sense. We're not making the playoffs, this team is bad, the season has been an embarrassment. A couple extra wins in August and September aren't going to be the difference between someone paying $40k+ for season tickets or not, and sponsors aren't going to drop the sox cause they're a big market team and people are going to watch next year, whether they lose 90 games or 100, which is pretty much what we're talking about at this point. The season is a lost cause and the draft pick is the silver lining. If they thought/acted the way you're suggesting, we wouldn't have traded Lackey, Lester, and Miller last year, or pulled off the Punto trade. They're going to maximize the value of that pick, and it's pretty clear already. Porcello wouldn't be on the DL with a phantom injury if they were going to keep playing the veterans, and Castillo wouldn't be getting playing time over De Aza either.
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Post by jchang on Aug 4, 2015 10:14:55 GMT -5
I do think Owens is ready for spot starts at the MLB level, and I also think we messed up JBJ's development with the idiotic decision to skip AAA in 2013. Owens on the other hand has had 26 games in AA and 27 in AAA. Not to get off topic, deliberating tanking the rest of the season for the purpose of draft position is almost never a good idea, but I do think we have to take the opportunity to test any prospect who is ready to see who can contribute next season.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Aug 4, 2015 10:29:27 GMT -5
Looks like he will only face three lefties tonight...Ells, Gardner back to back. Then gi gi at the bottom(so it will be three in a row). I've been wondering how he will approach Ells for a while. Spotting the fastball away to setup the change? Or looking for some chasing of the curve or even the recent slider?
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 4, 2015 10:36:39 GMT -5
I've always felt Owens was way over-rated and that the Sox should have been using him as a trade chip. The danger with this call up is exposure. Granted that can work both ways but with Owens it feels they are all in on him in their belief he's legit. If they had a better track record of judging major league talent, I'd feel better about his chances. If he comes up and struggles his stock will plummet. This isn't an issue if you have no intention of trading him.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2015 10:53:56 GMT -5
I've always felt Owens was way over-rated and that the Sox should have been using him as a trade chip. The danger with this call up is exposure. Granted that can work both ways but with Owens it feels they are all in on him in their belief he's legit. If they had a better track record of judging major league talent, I'd feel better about his chances. If he comes up and struggles his stock will plummet. This isn't an issue if you have no intention of trading him. How is your track record? Look, it's so damn hard to find good controlled pitching that this is about the only way. Hit on some of your prospects or get lucky on a reclamation project. Trading 3-4 guys for a 30 year old doesn't work anymore.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Aug 4, 2015 10:54:35 GMT -5
Looks like he will only face three lefties tonight...Ells, Gardner back to back. Then gi gi at the bottom(so it will be three in a row). I've been wondering how he will approach Ells for a while. Spotting the fastball away to setup the change? Or looking for some chasing of the curve or even the recent slider? Ellsbury from July 12 on: .176 .224 .338 .562 Gardner from July 9 on: .221 .325 .294 .619
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Aug 4, 2015 11:20:55 GMT -5
Looks like he will only face three lefties tonight...Ells, Gardner back to back. Then gi gi at the bottom(so it will be three in a row). I've been wondering how he will approach Ells for a while. Spotting the fastball away to setup the change? Or looking for some chasing of the curve or even the recent slider? Ellsbury from July 12 on: .176 .224 .338 .562 Gardner from July 9 on: .221 .325 .294 .619 My sources claim Owens to throw a perfect game based on two underperforming pounders. C. Mortensen
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2015 11:26:14 GMT -5
Looks like he will only face three lefties tonight...Ells, Gardner back to back. Then gi gi at the bottom(so it will be three in a row). I've been wondering how he will approach Ells for a while. Spotting the fastball away to setup the change? Or looking for some chasing of the curve or even the recent slider? Glad to see they don't notice his reverse splits.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2015 12:12:37 GMT -5
Looks like he will only face three lefties tonight...Ells, Gardner back to back. Then gi gi at the bottom(so it will be three in a row). I've been wondering how he will approach Ells for a while. Spotting the fastball away to setup the change? Or looking for some chasing of the curve or even the recent slider? Glad to see they don't notice his reverse splits. Or they don't care, because they are roughly 75 games ahead of the Red Sox and probably don't want to screw with players roles against a rookie pitcher while they are playing well. And also, they have three switch hitters - if someone like Teixeira isn't seeing him well from the right side he can turn around.
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 5, 2015 17:09:34 GMT -5
I was encouraged by Owens last night. His fastball looked better than it had when I had watched him during ST. Seemed to have a bit more jump on it. His change-up is legit. His pitch selection in a couple ABs was questionable, but I thought he looked like he has a chance to stick for sure.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 5, 2015 17:28:34 GMT -5
I just want them to go with the three after Johnson gets better. I be happy with that I give up on this front office moving on from players that are not gonna be here and I give up on the bullpen. To me it looks like they just want to leave it alone. They have a perfect chance to get a look at everyone they want but they keep trotting out the same guys.
E-Rod, Owens and Johnson when healthy. Farrell is all happy having his veterans there near him.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 5, 2015 21:08:58 GMT -5
He debuts in New York and after an inning to get the jitters out, I thought he was pretty good. Hopefully he gets another couple of starts to grow off of this showing
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 9:11:16 GMT -5
He debuts in New York and after an inning to get the jitters out, I thought he was pretty good. Hopefully he gets another couple of starts to grow off of this showing he didn't look any different from the guy I saw in the minors. I still say he'll be a 4/5 with maybe a year profiling as a #3. You need those guys, sure, but if any GM besides Ben Cherington believed the Owens as a 1/2 hype Ben should have traded him for requisite return then. Severino's stuff was a lot more electric last night, and his control was better (and he's younger). He does not involve his lower half much in his delivery, which could put rapid wear on his elbow/shoulder, but if I could have either, I'd take Severino based not only that start, but on the two I saw in AA last year. And it isn't even close. It will be interesting to see both of them second and third time through the league. Neither of them is superman, but Severino has the stuff/mix/control that projects far closer to a #2+ starter than Owens.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Aug 6, 2015 9:14:05 GMT -5
Once you turn 22 as a tall lanky lefty, your control never improves any further.
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