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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Aug 6, 2015 9:17:19 GMT -5
Once you turn 22 as a tall lanky lefty, your control never improves any further. This is a valid point however the point still stands that Owens command has always been a problem. Yes we can point to Cliff Lee but that is a rarity.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,790
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Post by nomar on Aug 6, 2015 9:21:35 GMT -5
Once you turn 22 as a tall lanky lefty, your control never improves any further. This is a valid point however the point still stands that Owens command has always been a problem. Yes we can point to Cliff Lee but that is a rarity. Well he doesn't need to improve it to that extent to be a #3, or even a #2. Hamels walked about 3.5/9 in the minors and as a rookie, and improved. He was a guy with a plus change up and similar velocity. If Owens could be a notch below Hamels, that's plenty good.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 9:26:47 GMT -5
Once you turn 22 as a tall lanky lefty, your control never improves any further. I'm guessing this is sarcasm. Well played, but with Owens, my belief is that unless he develops near pinpoint control there's no chance to rise above a 3/4. That "deception" won't play vs. MLB hitters, and his FB is, in terms of MLB starters, is pedestrian. The Change is very good when it's on, but it's not enough. And I will be a rare thing to improve his control enough to lower his BB/9 below 3.0 at the MLB level IMHO. Like I said, 4/5s are important and needed, but I've seen this guy almost a dozen times over the years. He's no ace, near ace or #2. I know I'm not no expert, but based on this front office's track record, neither are they.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 6, 2015 9:29:08 GMT -5
Once you turn 22 as a tall lanky lefty, your control never improves any further. I'm guessing this is sarcasm. Well played, but with Owens, my belief is that unless he develops near pinpoint control there's no chance to rise above a 3/4. That "deception" won't play vs. MLB hitters, and his FB is, in terms of MLB starters, is pedestrian. The Change is very good when it's on, but it's not enough. And I will be a rare thing to improve his control enough to lower his BB/9 below 3.0 at the MLB level IMHO. Like I said, 4/5s are important and needed, but I've seen this guy almost a dozen times over the years. He's no ace, near ace or #2. I know I'm not no expert, but based on this front office's track record, neither are they. I have a hard time believing he peaks at what Miley is giving us this year, which is a solid backend of rotation year.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 6, 2015 9:34:47 GMT -5
.... Severino's stuff was a lot more electric last night, and his control was better (and he's younger). He does not involve his lower half much in his delivery, which could put rapid wear on his elbow/shoulder, but if I could have either, I'd take Severino based not only that start, but on the two I saw in AA last year. And it isn't even close. It will be interesting to see both of them second and third time through the league. Neither of them is superman, but Severino has the stuff/mix/control that projects far closer to a #2+ starter than Owens. This is all true. But what about the position of people like Keith Law that people who throw without using their lower half like Severino never stay as a starter? Discussed here: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yankees-bolster-their-rotation-with-luis-severino/Law on tv last night said only good things about his pitches and did not discuss the lower-half/reliever question: espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13385442&ex_cid=espnapi_public
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Post by jmei on Aug 6, 2015 10:12:59 GMT -5
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 6, 2015 10:18:33 GMT -5
Once you turn 22 as a tall lanky lefty, your control never improves any further. I'm guessing this is sarcasm. Well played, but with Owens, my belief is that unless he develops near pinpoint control there's no chance to rise above a 3/4. That "deception" won't play vs. MLB hitters, and his FB is, in terms of MLB starters, is pedestrian. The Change is very good when it's on, but it's not enough. And I will be a rare thing to improve his control enough to lower his BB/9 below 3.0 at the MLB level IMHO. Like I said, 4/5s are important and needed, but I've seen this guy almost a dozen times over the years. He's no ace, near ace or #2. I know I'm not no expert, but based on this front office's track record, neither are they. I think it's way too early to claim his deception won't play at the MLB level, and it doesn't make sense. If it's hard to pick up on the ball out of a guys hand, it just is. It's not like guys in AAA aren't making the bigs cause their eye sight isn't good enough or something. He's 6'6 and lanky, it's natural that his fastball would play up because it leaves his hand significantly closer to the plate than you would normally see, and the change just makes it tougher to time the heater
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 10:27:37 GMT -5
Owens' future depends almost entirely (health aside) on his command and control. He has shown steady improvement in both and there really is no reason not to believe he can continue to improve. If he can develop really good command and control his fastball is fast enough. It was 91-92 and it might tick up a little in the next couple of years. He has the arsenal to be a very effective starter and probably better than some - maybe most - we have seen in the starting rotation this year. However, he isn't there yet.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Aug 6, 2015 11:30:50 GMT -5
This is a valid point however the point still stands that Owens command has always been a problem. Yes we can point to Cliff Lee but that is a rarity. Well he doesn't need to improve it to that extent to be a #3, or even a #2. Hamels walked about 3.5/9 in the minors and as a rookie, and improved. He was a guy with a plus change up and similar velocity. If Owens could be a notch below Hamels, that's plenty good. No Henry Owens discussion is without endless recycling of things said numerous times before, so here's another. Bruce Hurst (6' 4") at age 22 and 23 walked 4+ both in AAA and mlb. In 15 years in mlb he averaged 2.8.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 6, 2015 11:42:25 GMT -5
This is a valid point however the point still stands that Owens command has always been a problem. Yes we can point to Cliff Lee but that is a rarity. Well he doesn't need to improve it to that extent to be a #3, or even a #2. Hamels walked about 3.5/9 in the minors and as a rookie, and improved. He was a guy with a plus change up and similar velocity. If Owens could be a notch below Hamels, that's plenty good.Are you referring to the Hamels who pitches against the NL, or the Hamels who pitches against the AL?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 6, 2015 12:20:49 GMT -5
I'm guessing this is sarcasm. Well played, but with Owens, my belief is that unless he develops near pinpoint control there's no chance to rise above a 3/4. That "deception" won't play vs. MLB hitters, and his FB is, in terms of MLB starters, is pedestrian. The Change is very good when it's on, but it's not enough. And I will be a rare thing to improve his control enough to lower his BB/9 below 3.0 at the MLB level IMHO. Like I said, 4/5s are important and needed, but I've seen this guy almost a dozen times over the years. He's no ace, near ace or #2. I know I'm not no expert, but based on this front office's track record, neither are they. I think it's way too early to claim his deception won't play at the MLB level, and it doesn't make sense. If it's hard to pick up on the ball out of a guys hand, it just is. It's not like guys in AAA aren't making the bigs cause their eye sight isn't good enough or something. He's 6'6 and lanky, it's natural that his fastball would play up because it leaves his hand significantly closer to the plate than you would normally see, and the change just makes it tougher to time the heater Got stuck watching the MFY feed. Paul O'Neill mentioned you're not used to seeing the release point from pitchers that tall and was harder to pick up for him. My comp is Sid Fernandez. Fernandez looked like he was throwing uphill. Henry O looks like he's throwing downhill. Sid didn't have a lot of gas. Yet, struck out a lot of batters. Not an ace. But, hopefully a 3-4 for Henry O.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 6, 2015 12:38:42 GMT -5
Got stuck watching the MFY feed. Paul O'Neill mentioned you're not used to seeing the release point from pitchers that tall and was harder to pick up for him. My comp is Sid Fernandez. Fernandez looked like he was throwing uphill. Henry O looks like he's throwing downhill. Sid didn't have a lot of gas. Yet, struck out a lot of batters. Not an ace. But, hopefully a 3-4 for Henry O. Paul also said Swihart had just converted to catcher and that Owens had a "3.8" era in Pawtucket. Guy isn't exactly on top of things.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 12:43:55 GMT -5
Agreed. This is just my opinion based on how good MLB hitters (and scouting) are compared to minor leagues.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 12:47:29 GMT -5
.... Severino's stuff was a lot more electric last night, and his control was better (and he's younger). He does not involve his lower half much in his delivery, which could put rapid wear on his elbow/shoulder, but if I could have either, I'd take Severino based not only that start, but on the two I saw in AA last year. And it isn't even close. It will be interesting to see both of them second and third time through the league. Neither of them is superman, but Severino has the stuff/mix/control that projects far closer to a #2+ starter than Owens. This is all true. But what about the position of people like Keith Law that people who throw without using their lower half like Severino never stay as a starter? Discussed here: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yankees-bolster-their-rotation-with-luis-severino/Law on tv last night said only good things about his pitches and did not discuss the lower-half/reliever question: espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13385442&ex_cid=espnapi_publicI guess I agree with Law on that or at least, believe the lack of Severino involving his lower half will detract from his effectiveness long term. I'll have to read the piece to see why Law thinks the lower half will effect his delivery.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2015 12:59:54 GMT -5
Got stuck watching the MFY feed. Paul O'Neill mentioned you're not used to seeing the release point from pitchers that tall and was harder to pick up for him. My comp is Sid Fernandez. Fernandez looked like he was throwing uphill. Henry O looks like he's throwing downhill. Sid didn't have a lot of gas. Yet, struck out a lot of batters. Not an ace. But, hopefully a 3-4 for Henry O. Paul also said Swihart had just converted to catcher and that Owens had a "3.8" era in Pawtucket. Guy isn't exactly on top of things. Just because he doesn't know stats and didn't do any research doesn't mean his experience in a long baseball career isn't valid.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 6, 2015 14:28:49 GMT -5
EDIT: nvm.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 6, 2015 16:05:04 GMT -5
I'm guessing this is sarcasm. Well played, but with Owens, my belief is that unless he develops near pinpoint control there's no chance to rise above a 3/4. That "deception" won't play vs. MLB hitters, and his FB is, in terms of MLB starters, is pedestrian. The Change is very good when it's on, but it's not enough. And I will be a rare thing to improve his control enough to lower his BB/9 below 3.0 at the MLB level IMHO. Like I said, 4/5s are important and needed, but I've seen this guy almost a dozen times over the years. He's no ace, near ace or #2. I know I'm not no expert, but based on this front office's track record, neither are they. I think it's way too early to claim his deception won't play at the MLB level, and it doesn't make sense. If it's hard to pick up on the ball out of a guys hand, it just is. It's not like guys in AAA aren't making the bigs cause their eye sight isn't good enough or something. He's 6'6 and lanky, it's natural that his fastball would play up because it leaves his hand significantly closer to the plate than you would normally see, and the change just makes it tougher to time the heater I pointed out in the game thread (getting some details wrong) that he threw a 93-mph FB by ARod, down and away, in a 3-1 count. In the pitch/fx era, that was the 17th time ARod had seen a 3-1 FB in that sector of the zone. This was the 14th time he swung, and the second time he missed. His 12 times making contact: 5 fouls, 3 outs, a single, double, and 2 homers (1.571 SA). (For LHP, that was the only the 4th pitch there in a 3-1 count, all of which he swing at, and his first miss. Regardless of count versus LHP, that was his 7th swing and miss in that sector out of 65 swings on 92 pitches.) I think this is an absolute fact: either Owens got really lucky on that pitch, or its effective velocity was more like 95 or 96. Edit: that's because studies have shown that the entire worth of velocity is in hitter's hot zones. Getting away with a pitch in a hitter's hot zone is a function of effective velocity; in cold zones, velocity barely matters. Now to what extent any increase in effective velocity is a function of a) releasing the pitch closer to the plate, b) hiding the ball longer, or c) having an unorthodox delivery ( a la Jered Weaver) remains to be seen. Type c "deception" tends to fade with times around the batting order, while a and b do not.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2015 17:25:37 GMT -5
Once you turn 22 as a tall lanky lefty, your control never improves any further. I'm guessing this is sarcasm. Well played, but with Owens, my belief is that unless he develops near pinpoint control there's no chance to rise above a 3/4. That "deception" won't play vs. MLB hitters, and his FB is, in terms of MLB starters, is pedestrian. The Change is very good when it's on, but it's not enough. And I will be a rare thing to improve his control enough to lower his BB/9 below 3.0 at the MLB level IMHO. Like I said, 4/5s are important and needed, but I've seen this guy almost a dozen times over the years. He's no ace, near ace or #2. I know I'm not no expert, but based on this front office's track record, neither are they. I think its crazy to think he all of sudden he is going to get hit hard when he starts pitching in majors. This is a guy that has never been hit hard, not one single year in the minors. Sure walks might get him trouble some starts, but I'm not worried that all of sudden his stuff isn't good enough and het gets hit really hard.
I think Owens is a 3/4 right now and is only going to get better. Not sure he becomes an ace, but I think he could become a very good 2 or at least a 2/3 in a few years. Sometimes its not just about how fast a guys fastball his, its the results he gets when throwing his fastball. Look at Allen Webster his stuff was crazy good, but the results weren't that good.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Aug 18, 2015 19:25:13 GMT -5
I am worried about Owens concerning his changeup. He slows his arm and is tipping the pitch off. I wonder if this is why he has reduced the amount of changeups he throws. Is it easy to fix such an issue by next season?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 18, 2015 21:32:05 GMT -5
I am worried about Owens concerning his changeup. He slows his arm and is tipping the pitch off. I wonder if this is why he has reduced the amount of changeups he throws. Is it easy to fix such an issue by next season? I think it's more a symptom of him giving up his changeup for too long.
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Post by huskies15 on Sept 28, 2015 19:05:37 GMT -5
So what do we do with Henry? He has had some bad outings, but his last few have been great. He generates swings and misses at a high rate. He has his warts (seems to be prone to homers, inconsistent control) but he could turn it on at some point if things click. What are your evaluations now that we have seen him for a couple months in the show.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2015 20:03:51 GMT -5
So what do we do with Henry? He has had some bad outings, but his last few have been great. He generates swings and misses at a high rate. He has his warts (seems to be prone to homers, inconsistent control) but he could turn it on at some point if things click. What are your evaluations now that we have seen him for a couple months in the show. I'm comfortable with him as the sixth starter going into next year, but I don't know that he's performed well enough that I want to pencil him into a rotation spot.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 28, 2015 20:10:28 GMT -5
I don't think there would be anything wrong with just putting him in the rotation next year, but he's also got some potential to be a trade chip. The groundball rate worries me in Fenway, and there should be a strong market for him. He's still super cheap and controllable, but he's done enough in the bigs to not be "just a prospect" anymore.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 28, 2015 20:20:33 GMT -5
Likely either starts the year in Pawtucket and is the first or second guy called up when needed, or he's moved as part of a package for a likely top end guy. I'd say he could centerpiece a trade for another position, but there really aren't any other noticeable holes. He's too good to be traded for a reliever I would think.
He could always be used to package with Sandoval or something, but I'm not a proponent of that
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 28, 2015 21:40:35 GMT -5
I am worried about Owens concerning his changeup. He slows his arm and is tipping the pitch off. I wonder if this is why he has reduced the amount of changeups he throws. Is it easy to fix such an issue by next season? I think it's more a symptom of him giving up his changeup for too long. Looking at the game yesterday, his changeup was outstanding, and had the O's hitters on their ears all game long. Lots of waves, weak swings, funky weak contact, and batters shaking their heads as they walked away from the batters box.
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