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Post by telson13 on Sept 29, 2015 22:31:16 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing he peaks at what Miley is giving us this year, which is a solid backend of rotation year. Considering the state of our pitching I'm surprised so many here have targeted Miley as a trade candidate. He has been the most reliable pitcher we've had all year. I believe he has 2 starts left and a chance for 200 IP, the only man on the staff that will even come close. His XFip nearly matches his non April ERA of 4.00. He has 17 QS and should finish with 18 or 19 with 200IP something he's been very consistent about. HIS ERA+ is 104 or just above average, so he appears to me to be a #3 type pitcher and not the #4 or#5 he's being cast as. This being his first year in the AL I expect him to pitcher closer to his XFIP especially with Hanley removed from the outfield equation and possibly all together in fact I expect minuscule overall improvement as he'll be 29 YO all next year with his second year in the AL and he likely has defensive stalwart back in young catching phenom Vasquez. His contract is as follows; 16:$6M, 17:$8.75M, 18:$12M club option ($0.5M buyout). The plan according to all of us is to sign/trade for at least an ace like pitcher. E-Rod at 23 next year still will have the harnesses on him with an IP cap, Buchholz may be the biggest enigma ever so who knows how many innings we'll get out of him, other than less than 200 IP. Porcello sure seems to have righted the ship and has 157 IP right now easily the second most of the staff but with an overall ERA over 5.00 if he becomes your most dependable holdover pitcher going into next season then we have bigger problems than merely signing an ace. Therefore all factors considered while I'm not opposed to trading Miley I certainly am opposed to it for this offseason. I think we'd be better served by waiting a year for a few reasons including my belief his performance will climb and his value increase. and in an uncertain staff we need his steadiness and innings pitched ALOT more than anyone who wants to trade him this offseason appears to be aware of. As much as I agree that Miley is great to have as a pitcher because of his reliability (both health and performance), I posit trading him for exactly that reason: it makes him a valuable trade commodity. I actually really like what he's done this year, I just think Owens is a more-than-sufficient replacement. They have almost identical FB velocity, similar K/9 and BB/9 rates, similar IP/GS numbers, similar records of health/durability...but I'm willing to gamble, and use the salary savings to pay for other needs (not to mention, get the return from trading Miley himself). But I completely see the other side. The guy goes out there every start and gives you almost exactly what you expect: 6 innings, 3 runs, and a chance to win the game.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 29, 2015 22:31:54 GMT -5
^I basically agree with Telson's points.....although can't really fault anyone who prefers the less risk attributed to Miley. I just happen to believe in Owens' upside, and see him as a future #3, hopefully as early as next year. Something that Alex Speier brought to my attention which I can't ignore. Of starting pitchers in the AL with at least 50 innings, Owen's contact% is 74.8% and ranks 5th behind only Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, and Corey Kluber. His % ranks ahead of guys like Cole Hamels, Garrett Richards, Masahiro Tanaka, Dallas Keuchel, and David Price. I'm not saying this means everything, because clearly his sample size is smaller than the rest, but its hard to ignore. To me, the stuff definitely plays at the highest level. The upside (of probably a 2/3 guy) is real.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 29, 2015 22:48:55 GMT -5
Look at Jon Lester's 2006. Same age as Owens, similar IP, similar (actually slightly worse) AAA performance that year, same K/9, much worse BB/9, less impressive minor league career, and FIP/xFIP substantially worse (around 5). www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=PI don't know what the projection systems expected, but I'm sure it was way off, because he was getting his first taste of MLB at 22. His next year was excellent. Young pitchers improve, usually. That's the nature of experience. Give the kid a shot, he's earned it.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2015 23:14:33 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing he peaks at what Miley is giving us this year, which is a solid backend of rotation year. Considering the state of our pitching I'm surprised so many here have targeted Miley as a trade candidate. He has been the most reliable pitcher we've had all year. I believe he has 2 starts left and a chance for 200 IP, the only man on the staff that will even come close. His XFip nearly matches his non April ERA of 4.00. He has 17 QS and should finish with 18 or 19 with 200IP something he's been very consistent about. HIS ERA+ is 104 or just above average, so he appears to me to be a #3 type pitcher and not the #4 or#5 he's being cast as. This being his first year in the AL I expect him to pitcher closer to his XFIP especially with Hanley removed from the outfield equation and possibly all together in fact I expect minuscule overall improvement as he'll be 29 YO all next year with his second year in the AL and he likely has defensive stalwart back in young catching phenom Vasquez. His contract is as follows; 16:$6M, 17:$8.75M, 18:$12M club option ($0.5M buyout). The plan according to all of us is to sign/trade for at least an ace like pitcher. E-Rod at 23 next year still will have the harnesses on him with an IP cap, Buchholz may be the biggest enigma ever so who knows how many innings we'll get out of him, other than less than 200 IP. Porcello sure seems to have righted the ship and has 157 IP right now easily the second most of the staff but with an overall ERA over 5.00 if he becomes your most dependable holdover pitcher going into next season then we have bigger problems than merely signing an ace. Therefore all factors considered while I'm not opposed to trading Miley I certainly am opposed to it for this offseason. I think we'd be better served by waiting a year for a few reasons including my belief his performance will climb and his value increase. and in an uncertain staff we need his steadiness and innings pitched ALOT more than anyone who wants to trade him this offseason appears to be aware of. It's not that I'm anxious to deal Miley, but the fact is if you want to receive something of value you need to surrender something of value and given the Sox' pitching situation Miley is one of the most palatable options. Consider that the Sox are most likely going to get a top of the rotation pitcher whether by trade or by free agency, so that's one spot in the rotation. Rodriguez will definitely get a spot in the rotation. I don't see the Sox yo-yoing him back and forth between Pawtucket and Boston, so that's another spot accounted for. With Rick Porcello making $20 million per year, he's not going anywhere, so he'll have a spot sewed up. That's three spots accounted for and a slew of other candidates for the last two spots. You have to pick two starters among Clay Buchholz, who will be returning, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Steven Wright, and potentially Rich Hill who I would think the Sox would seriously look at bringing back. If Buchholz isn't on the DL, he gets a spot. Perhaps Joe Kelly and Steven Wright (out of options) and Rich Hill end up in the bullpen waiting for a spot to open up while Owens rides the Pawtucket/Boston shuttle until he proves too good to keep down. It's valuable having a pitcher you can shuttle back and forth. If the Sox are looking to trade for a starter are are willing to thin out the depth in a trade I would guess they'd entertain the thought of dealing Buchholz (unlikely), Joe Kelly (very possible, but he could be an asset out of the pen and still has a high ceiling given his stuff), or Wright (unlikely to fetch much trade value). Wade Miley who I know has pitched well since May has been in totality what he has usually been - a reliable #4 type starter (on a good team). I don't discount his April numbers because with those in his stat line, it's pretty close to what he has done in his career. I would expect him to pitch badly at some point, whether it's April or at some other point of the season, so I wouldn't edit those bad April numbers out. But despite being a #3/#4 type starter, he's an innings eater who is under control on a reasonable contract for three more years. There's a lot of value in that to a lot of other teams, and he could be a guy that could be part of a deal for a starting pitcher upgrade, a better pitcher who is in the last year of his contract. I figure that most other teams would prefer Owens to Miley, which makes sense as I prefer Owens to Miley as well. I do believe that in time Owens will gain more consistent command, and his ability to get frequent swings and misses will turn into more strike outs, and I think he could be a #2/#3 type starter on a good team. I also think this guy is the most likely guy on the Sox staff to throw a no-hitter in the future. I really hope the Sox are patient with him and hang on to him. I would consider Miley more expendable in a deal than Owens. You can debate whether he's more expendable than Buchholz or Kelly, though, and I can certainly understand the reluctance to part with Miley, but if given a choice I'd keep the potential and flexibility and ceiling of Kelly, the future of Owens, and the potential front line pitching of Buchholz over the steady innings eater in Miley.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 29, 2015 23:52:28 GMT -5
Considering the state of our pitching I'm surprised so many here have targeted Miley as a trade candidate. He has been the most reliable pitcher we've had all year. I believe he has 2 starts left and a chance for 200 IP, the only man on the staff that will even come close. His XFip nearly matches his non April ERA of 4.00. He has 17 QS and should finish with 18 or 19 with 200IP something he's been very consistent about. HIS ERA+ is 104 or just above average, so he appears to me to be a #3 type pitcher and not the #4 or#5 he's being cast as. This being his first year in the AL I expect him to pitcher closer to his XFIP especially with Hanley removed from the outfield equation and possibly all together in fact I expect minuscule overall improvement as he'll be 29 YO all next year with his second year in the AL and he likely has defensive stalwart back in young catching phenom Vasquez. His contract is as follows; 16:$6M, 17:$8.75M, 18:$12M club option ($0.5M buyout). The plan according to all of us is to sign/trade for at least an ace like pitcher. E-Rod at 23 next year still will have the harnesses on him with an IP cap, Buchholz may be the biggest enigma ever so who knows how many innings we'll get out of him, other than less than 200 IP. Porcello sure seems to have righted the ship and has 157 IP right now easily the second most of the staff but with an overall ERA over 5.00 if he becomes your most dependable holdover pitcher going into next season then we have bigger problems than merely signing an ace. Therefore all factors considered while I'm not opposed to trading Miley I certainly am opposed to it for this offseason. I think we'd be better served by waiting a year for a few reasons including my belief his performance will climb and his value increase. and in an uncertain staff we need his steadiness and innings pitched ALOT more than anyone who wants to trade him this offseason appears to be aware of. It's not that I'm anxious to deal Miley, but the fact is if you want to receive something of value you need to surrender something of value and given the Sox' pitching situation Miley is one of the most palatable options. Consider that the Sox are most likely going to get a top of the rotation pitcher whether by trade or by free agency, so that's one spot in the rotation. Rodriguez will definitely get a spot in the rotation. I don't see the Sox yo-yoing him back and forth between Pawtucket and Boston, so that's another spot accounted for. With Rick Porcello making $20 million per year, he's not going anywhere, so he'll have a spot sewed up. That's three spots accounted for and a slew of other candidates for the last two spots. You have to pick two starters among Clay Buchholz, who will be returning, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Steven Wright, and potentially Rich Hill who I would think the Sox would seriously look at bringing back. If Buchholz isn't on the DL, he gets a spot. Perhaps Joe Kelly and Steven Wright (out of options) and Rich Hill end up in the bullpen waiting for a spot to open up while Owens rides the Pawtucket/Boston shuttle until he proves too good to keep down. It's valuable having a pitcher you can shuttle back and forth. If the Sox are looking to trade for a starter are are willing to thin out the depth in a trade I would guess they'd entertain the thought of dealing Buchholz (unlikely), Joe Kelly (very possible, but he could be an asset out of the pen and still has a high ceiling given his stuff), or Wright (unlikely to fetch much trade value). Wade Miley who I know has pitched well since May has been in totality what he has usually been - a reliable #4 type starter (on a good team). I don't discount his April numbers because with those in his stat line, it's pretty close to what he has done in his career. I would expect him to pitch badly at some point, whether it's April or at some other point of the season, so I wouldn't edit those bad April numbers out. But despite being a #3/#4 type starter, he's an innings eater who is under control on a reasonable contract for three more years. There's a lot of value in that to a lot of other teams, and he could be a guy that could be part of a deal for a starting pitcher upgrade, a better pitcher who is in the last year of his contract. I figure that most other teams would prefer Owens to Miley, which makes sense as I prefer Owens to Miley as well. I do believe that in time Owens will gain more consistent command, and his ability to get frequent swings and misses will turn into more strike outs, and I think he could be a #2/#3 type starter on a good team. I also think this guy is the most likely guy on the Sox staff to throw a no-hitter in the future. I really hope the Sox are patient with him and hang on to him. I would consider Miley more expendable in a deal than Owens. You can debate whether he's more expendable than Buchholz or Kelly, though, and I can certainly understand the reluctance to part with Miley, but if given a choice I'd keep the potential and flexibility and ceiling of Kelly, the future of Owens, and the potential front line pitching of Buchholz over the steady innings eater in Miley. Pretty much my exact thinking, with the addition that Miley might actually command a small premium given his incredible predictability. He's so low-risk that he has less value to the Sox (big market, lots of back-end depth) than he would to a smaller-market team with a solid but short rotation (a team with good 1-3 or 1-4 but lots of questions after that). In a pitcher-friendly NL park like Petco or Pac Bell, he would be outstanding. Could they get Kimbrel? Even if the Sox had to throw in a prospect in the 6-10 range, they would fill a gigantic hole in the bullpen and, at worst, added only some mild uncertainty at the back end of their rotation (all while probably not sacrificing much performance).
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 30, 2015 0:49:43 GMT -5
It's not that I'm anxious to deal Miley, but the fact is if you want to receive something of value you need to surrender something of value and given the Sox' pitching situation Miley is one of the most palatable options. Consider that the Sox are most likely going to get a top of the rotation pitcher whether by trade or by free agency, so that's one spot in the rotation. Rodriguez will definitely get a spot in the rotation. I don't see the Sox yo-yoing him back and forth between Pawtucket and Boston, so that's another spot accounted for. With Rick Porcello making $20 million per year, he's not going anywhere, so he'll have a spot sewed up. That's three spots accounted for and a slew of other candidates for the last two spots. You have to pick two starters among Clay Buchholz, who will be returning, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Steven Wright, and potentially Rich Hill who I would think the Sox would seriously look at bringing back. If Buchholz isn't on the DL, he gets a spot. Perhaps Joe Kelly and Steven Wright (out of options) and Rich Hill end up in the bullpen waiting for a spot to open up while Owens rides the Pawtucket/Boston shuttle until he proves too good to keep down. It's valuable having a pitcher you can shuttle back and forth. If the Sox are looking to trade for a starter are are willing to thin out the depth in a trade I would guess they'd entertain the thought of dealing Buchholz (unlikely), Joe Kelly (very possible, but he could be an asset out of the pen and still has a high ceiling given his stuff), or Wright (unlikely to fetch much trade value). Wade Miley who I know has pitched well since May has been in totality what he has usually been - a reliable #4 type starter (on a good team). I don't discount his April numbers because with those in his stat line, it's pretty close to what he has done in his career. I would expect him to pitch badly at some point, whether it's April or at some other point of the season, so I wouldn't edit those bad April numbers out. But despite being a #3/#4 type starter, he's an innings eater who is under control on a reasonable contract for three more years. There's a lot of value in that to a lot of other teams, and he could be a guy that could be part of a deal for a starting pitcher upgrade, a better pitcher who is in the last year of his contract. I figure that most other teams would prefer Owens to Miley, which makes sense as I prefer Owens to Miley as well. I do believe that in time Owens will gain more consistent command, and his ability to get frequent swings and misses will turn into more strike outs, and I think he could be a #2/#3 type starter on a good team. I also think this guy is the most likely guy on the Sox staff to throw a no-hitter in the future. I really hope the Sox are patient with him and hang on to him. I would consider Miley more expendable in a deal than Owens. You can debate whether he's more expendable than Buchholz or Kelly, though, and I can certainly understand the reluctance to part with Miley, but if given a choice I'd keep the potential and flexibility and ceiling of Kelly, the future of Owens, and the potential front line pitching of Buchholz over the steady innings eater in Miley. Pretty much my exact thinking, with the addition that Miley might actually command a small premium given his incredible predictability. He's so low-risk that he has less value to the Sox (big market, lots of back-end depth) than he would to a smaller-market team with a solid but short rotation (a team with good 1-3 or 1-4 but lots of questions after that). In a pitcher-friendly NL park like Petco or Pac Bell, he would be outstanding. Could they get Kimbrel? Even if the Sox had to throw in a prospect in the 6-10 range, they would fill a gigantic hole in the bullpen and, at worst, added only some mild uncertainty at the back end of their rotation (all while probably not sacrificing much performance). Sadly the point is missed. Realibility is exactly what our staff desperately needs next year, the IP is ignored completely. Some argue the merits of Owens over Miley, which again missed the point and this should not be a debate of one verse the other. We need a player with options we can store down in Pawtucket to be the first man called up when a pitcher goes down for more than 1 missed start. Owens is that man. 2 of Kelly/Wright/Hill should battle for bullpen spots and be part of our depth with 1 in that group possibly traded. Our major trading chips is our positional players and/or farm, especially based on how bad our pitching is compared to our offense. If Miley is traded this offseason consider who are our 2 most dependable pitchers in regards to IP from this season are; Porcello with 165 IP and an ERA still above 5.00 and 134 IP by Joe Kelley with an ERA of 4.85. Last season we had 2 many unknowns and wishcasting for the staff, which I bought into myself. So why repeat the same mistake a year later? Our team needs his reliability for another year. Of course I expect better things from E-Rod but at 23 YO the kid gloves will still be on him, he's at 121 IP @ MLB but did have 48 more ip down in pawtucket. To much would ride on his shoulders and Buchholz and we all know the one dependable thing about Clay is that he's not dependable. The SP should read 1. FA/Trade, 2. Buccholz (who I'd like to shop once he shows 2 months of health). 3. Porcello, 4. Miley & 5. E-Rod. Swing man is one of Kelley/Wright/Hill with 1 of the 3 likely traded. Owens is the man riding the shuttle until the inevitable injury occurs. Perhaps you could package Miley with Buccholz during the season for someone with Buccholz reliability and Miley's dependability, which would open the door for Owens and by then Johnson should be recovered enough to becomes the depth that we would have lost otherwise. Don't forgot we don't have another pitcher down on the farm near ready that we have not already seen.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 11:22:26 GMT -5
Pretty much my exact thinking, with the addition that Miley might actually command a small premium given his incredible predictability. He's so low-risk that he has less value to the Sox (big market, lots of back-end depth) than he would to a smaller-market team with a solid but short rotation (a team with good 1-3 or 1-4 but lots of questions after that). In a pitcher-friendly NL park like Petco or Pac Bell, he would be outstanding. Could they get Kimbrel? Even if the Sox had to throw in a prospect in the 6-10 range, they would fill a gigantic hole in the bullpen and, at worst, added only some mild uncertainty at the back end of their rotation (all while probably not sacrificing much performance). Sadly the point is missed. Realibility is exactly what our staff desperately needs next year, the IP is ignored completely. Some argue the merits of Owens over Miley, which again missed the point and this should not be a debate of one verse the other. We need a player with options we can store down in Pawtucket to be the first man called up when a pitcher goes down for more than 1 missed start. Owens is that man. 2 of Kelly/Wright/Hill should battle for bullpen spots and be part of our depth with 1 in that group possibly traded. Our major trading chips is our positional players and/or farm, especially based on how bad our pitching is compared to our offense. If Miley is traded this offseason consider who are our 2 most dependable pitchers in regards to IP from this season are; Porcello with 165 IP and an ERA still above 5.00 and 134 IP by Joe Kelley with an ERA of 4.85. Last season we had 2 many unknowns and wishcasting for the staff, which I bought into myself. So why repeat the same mistake a year later? Our team needs his reliability for another year. Of course I expect better things from E-Rod but at 23 YO the kid gloves will still be on him, he's at 121 IP @ MLB but did have 48 more ip down in pawtucket. To much would ride on his shoulders and Buchholz and we all know the one dependable thing about Clay is that he's not dependable. The SP should read 1. FA/Trade, 2. Buccholz (who I'd like to shop once he shows 2 months of health). 3. Porcello, 4. Miley & 5. E-Rod. Swing man is one of Kelley/Wright/Hill with 1 of the 3 likely traded. Owens is the man riding the shuttle until the inevitable injury occurs. Perhaps you could package Miley with Buccholz during the season for someone with Buccholz reliability and Miley's dependability, which would open the door for Owens and by then Johnson should be recovered enough to becomes the depth that we would have lost otherwise. Don't forgot we don't have another pitcher down on the farm near ready that we have not already seen. Hahahaha! Sheesh...It's not sad, and the point wasn't missed. I just don't agree with you. Nor do some others. It's not the first time, either, and it won't be the last.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 11:34:51 GMT -5
Also, Rodriguez will have about 170 innings this year. There aren't going to be any kid gloves next year, and the team's already said that.
If the Sox acquire a #1, then it's basically Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, Miley to follow. What do you do with Kelly? If Owens stays in AAA, I presume you also stash Johnson, Wright, and Barnes there? That's four pitchers who should be in an MLB rotation stuck elsewhere, be it AAA or bullpen, and one who (hopefully) sorts it all out, but is still a useful shuttle player. I'm not sure *that* much depth is necessary (although with Buchholz and Kelly, it might be). But too much redundancy hurts a team, too, and impedes the development of young players: see OF, 2015.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2015 12:59:21 GMT -5
Pretty much my exact thinking, with the addition that Miley might actually command a small premium given his incredible predictability. He's so low-risk that he has less value to the Sox (big market, lots of back-end depth) than he would to a smaller-market team with a solid but short rotation (a team with good 1-3 or 1-4 but lots of questions after that). In a pitcher-friendly NL park like Petco or Pac Bell, he would be outstanding. Could they get Kimbrel? Even if the Sox had to throw in a prospect in the 6-10 range, they would fill a gigantic hole in the bullpen and, at worst, added only some mild uncertainty at the back end of their rotation (all while probably not sacrificing much performance). Sadly the point is missed. Realibility is exactly what our staff desperately needs next year, the IP is ignored completely. Some argue the merits of Owens over Miley, which again missed the point and this should not be a debate of one verse the other. We need a player with options we can store down in Pawtucket to be the first man called up when a pitcher goes down for more than 1 missed start. Owens is that man. 2 of Kelly/Wright/Hill should battle for bullpen spots and be part of our depth with 1 in that group possibly traded. Our major trading chips is our positional players and/or farm, especially based on how bad our pitching is compared to our offense. If Miley is traded this offseason consider who are our 2 most dependable pitchers in regards to IP from this season are; Porcello with 165 IP and an ERA still above 5.00 and 134 IP by Joe Kelley with an ERA of 4.85. Last season we had 2 many unknowns and wishcasting for the staff, which I bought into myself. So why repeat the same mistake a year later? Our team needs his reliability for another year. Of course I expect better things from E-Rod but at 23 YO the kid gloves will still be on him, he's at 121 IP @ MLB but did have 48 more ip down in pawtucket. To much would ride on his shoulders and Buchholz and we all know the one dependable thing about Clay is that he's not dependable. The SP should read 1. FA/Trade, 2. Buccholz (who I'd like to shop once he shows 2 months of health). 3. Porcello, 4. Miley & 5. E-Rod. Swing man is one of Kelley/Wright/Hill with 1 of the 3 likely traded. Owens is the man riding the shuttle until the inevitable injury occurs. Perhaps you could package Miley with Buccholz during the season for someone with Buccholz reliability and Miley's dependability, which would open the door for Owens and by then Johnson should be recovered enough to becomes the depth that we would have lost otherwise. Don't forgot we don't have another pitcher down on the farm near ready that we have not already seen. I didn't miss your point. It really wasn't that hard to understand. I'm thinking along the lines of the Sox signing Price (unlikely but now more possible than I would have though) or Cueto (the price goes down everyday, which could be a good thing - as lousy as he's been, I'm not convinced he's washed up) or some free agent to plug the rotation. With that, yes, you have FA ace starter, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, and Miley with Kelly, Wright, and possibly Hill in the bullpen all available to start if need be and Owens in AAA waiting for the call back up. My point is what if the Sox wanted to try to upgrade even this? Let's say there is a starter out there (doesn't have to necessarily be cost controlled) who is better than Miley (and yes there are plenty of starters who are better) but has only a year left or so on his deal, why wouldn't the Sox want to upgrade? Who would you use to upgrade? I know your answer is Clay Buchholz. Some might say Joe Kelly, and some may say if it's a young guy like Quintana or one of the Cleveland pitchers they'd deal Owens. Of course you have to think along with the team surrendering the talent. Odds are they won't want Miley over Owens or even Kelly, but perhaps the team wants a cost and quantity certainty and would take a positional prospect to make a deal for a starter upgrade. There's a lot of contingencies to what I'm talking about and it's hard to express them all, but my main point is that if the Sox can upgrade their rotation and they had to surrender Miley to do so, he'd be somebody I'd be more than willing to give up. He has pitched better than Porcello has, but to me, him and Porcello are reasonably comparable - they're mid rotation to back end types that can chew up innings, but Porcello is not tradeable.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 30, 2015 13:05:25 GMT -5
Sadly the point is missed. Realibility is exactly what our staff desperately needs next year, the IP is ignored completely. Some argue the merits of Owens over Miley, which again missed the point and this should not be a debate of one verse the other. We need a player with options we can store down in Pawtucket to be the first man called up when a pitcher goes down for more than 1 missed start. Owens is that man. 2 of Kelly/Wright/Hill should battle for bullpen spots and be part of our depth with 1 in that group possibly traded. Our major trading chips is our positional players and/or farm, especially based on how bad our pitching is compared to our offense. If Miley is traded this offseason consider who are our 2 most dependable pitchers in regards to IP from this season are; Porcello with 165 IP and an ERA still above 5.00 and 134 IP by Joe Kelley with an ERA of 4.85. Last season we had 2 many unknowns and wishcasting for the staff, which I bought into myself. So why repeat the same mistake a year later? Our team needs his reliability for another year. Of course I expect better things from E-Rod but at 23 YO the kid gloves will still be on him, he's at 121 IP @ MLB but did have 48 more ip down in pawtucket. To much would ride on his shoulders and Buchholz and we all know the one dependable thing about Clay is that he's not dependable. The SP should read 1. FA/Trade, 2. Buccholz (who I'd like to shop once he shows 2 months of health). 3. Porcello, 4. Miley & 5. E-Rod. Swing man is one of Kelley/Wright/Hill with 1 of the 3 likely traded. Owens is the man riding the shuttle until the inevitable injury occurs. Perhaps you could package Miley with Buccholz during the season for someone with Buccholz reliability and Miley's dependability, which would open the door for Owens and by then Johnson should be recovered enough to becomes the depth that we would have lost otherwise. Don't forgot we don't have another pitcher down on the farm near ready that we have not already seen. Hahahaha! Sheesh...It's not sad, and the point wasn't missed. I just don't agree with you. Nor do some others. It's not the first time, eier, and it won't be the last. Disagreeing is fine, good even, however it needs to counter the opposing view and address the issues the other side provides. None of that happened. Do you think it's wise to enter next season with so many pitchers who did not come close to 200 IP next year and or pitched badly? You want to heavily rely upon rookie/sophomores who have never pitched a full season in the majors? You want to trade the only reliable pitcher we had this year in the off season. Wouldn't it be smarter to wait and see first, wouldn't that be the more cautious prudent roads to travel. To get you have to give, we don't have enough pitching but we do have plenty of offense, maybe it would be wise to start there. You have not provided any clearly thought out evidence to support your path, more than just a feel. Sacrifice the pawns once the larger pieces are in place not before. You are putting the cart before the horse. To me this is common sense, you could be right in the end but you have not supported it with logic never mind facts. EDIT: Just to be clear and restate what I already said before it can be misconstrued again, Getting the ace first and making a trade for another pitcher which (could) include Miley makes sense only if you did it in that order. Also: A while back someone accused me of cherry picking out his April numbers. I did not such thing I included his XFIP which is nearly identical to his non April ERA. I used one to show the validity of the other, not that I needed to. His XFip provided was for the entire season. So his ERA of 4.00 is legit and he had to deal with Hanley is left and no Vasquez catching both of which would help his ERA go down. IP is very important, as you need roughly 1,000 out of your starters and he's the only reliable pitcher to provide that that we have on our staff and he does it while provide slightly above average pitching too.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 30, 2015 14:06:00 GMT -5
A couple points:
Let's tidy up the quoting. We don't need quotes of quotes of quotes. The quoting function isn't that hard (unless you're trying to quote from several different place and tied them into one post) quote and then pare down the irrelevant stuff, not just bolding the important points.
Second - I've seen this in several places now. Wright is out of options. He won't clear waivers. So stashing Wright in AAA isn't really an option. If you think it is, please state why.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 15:21:57 GMT -5
Hahahaha! Sheesh...It's not sad, and the point wasn't missed. I just don't agree with you. Nor do some others. It's not the first time, eier, and it won't be the last. Disagreeing is fine, good even, however it needs to counter the opposing view and address the issues the other side provides. None of that happened. Do you think it's wise to enter next season with so many pitchers who did not come close to 200 IP next year and or pitched badly? You want to heavily rely upon rookie/sophomores who have never pitched a full season in the majors? You want to trade the only reliable pitcher we had this year in the off season. Wouldn't it be smarter to wait and see first, wouldn't that be the more cautious prudent roads to travel. To get you have to give, we don't have enough pitching but we do have plenty of offense, maybe it would be wise to start there. You have not provided any clearly thought out evidence to support your path, more than just a feel. Sacrifice the pawns once the larger pieces are in place not before. You are putting the cart before the horse. To me this is common sense, you could be right in the end but you have not supported it with logic never mind facts. EDIT: Just to be clear and restate what I already said before it can be misconstrued again, Getting the ace first and making a trade for another pitcher which (could) include Miley makes sense only if you did it in that order. Also: A while back someone accused me of cherry picking out his April numbers. I did not such thing I included his XFIP which is nearly identical to his non April ERA. I used one to show the validity of the other, not that I needed to. His XFip provided was for the entire season. So his ERA of 4.00 is legit and he had to deal with Hanley is left and no Vasquez catching both of which would help his ERA go down. IP is very important, as you need roughly 1,000 out of your starters and he's the only reliable pitcher to provide that that we have on our staff and he does it while provide slightly above average pitching too. I've already given my rationale, **in detail**, in this thread. You're providing an unnecessarily long-winded reply that isn't adding any new information that hasn't already been addressed. Repeating points isn't going to make them more valid or more compelling. Again, you don't have to agree with my rationale, but it's there. And yes, simply put I'm confident in the depth the Sox have, **provided they acquire a #1**. It's pretty simple. Replacing 200 innings with a low-4s ERA from the group of Kelly, Johnson, Wright, Owens, Barnes, maybe Hill, and whatever FA/arb non-tenders they pick up is eminently plausible. If Miley were a #2 or even 3, I'd say it was tougher, but as a 4/5 I think his league-average performance is available right now from within the organization. I think Owens is a safe bet to approach or exceed Miley's production, at significant dollar savings, with the added benefit that Miley can be used in trade to fill a more glaring hole elsewhere.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 15:29:52 GMT -5
A couple points: Let's tidy up the quoting. We don't need quotes of quotes of quotes. The quoting function isn't that hard (unless you're trying to quote from several different place and tied them into one post) quote and then pare down the irrelevant stuff, not just bolding the important points. Second - I've seen this in several places now. Wright is out of options. He won't clear waivers. So stashing Wright in AAA isn't really an option. If you think it is, please state why. Forgot about Wright being out of options. Even more reason to create space by moving Miley. Wright, too, has produced at an MLB level similar to what Miley has done this year. He's a good swingman option if Owens takes the 5 spot. I'd also like to see them bring Hill back, both as depth and as a potential 4/5. That's less likely if Miley has a rotation spot locked up. Regardless, I'm of a mind that Owens deserves a rotation spot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2015 17:33:56 GMT -5
Wright, too, has produced at an MLB level similar to what Miley has done this year. No. No he has not.
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2015 18:26:54 GMT -5
A few scattered thoughts: -Yes, Miley has only averaged an extra out a start, but that's 5% extra value, which absolutely needs to be included in the analysis. Owens has always been an inefficient pitcher who struggles to go deep into games because of his walk/strikeout-heavy profile, and that's unlikely to change at the major league level. -You're way, way underselling Miley. He hasn't pitched like a fungible back-end starter, but like a league-average starter on a per-inning basis, both this year (104 ERA-, 96 FIP-, 100 xFIP-) and over his career (98 ERA-, 99 FIP-, 98 xFIP-). When you combine that with his ability to eat innings, you get something like a 2.5 to 3.0 win player and almost the definition of a number three starter. You should definitely not take that sort of production for granted-- league-average doesn't sound that impressive, but those guys don't grow on trees. That production makes Miley one of the 50 or so best pitchers in baseball, and that's very, very unlikely to be cobbled together from guys like Wright or Kelly. Maybe Owens is that good someday, but I'm skeptical that he'll approach it in 2016. -I'm not sure you can get trade Miley for comparable 2016 production. I've made this argument before, but rebuilding teams don't trade for innings-eating low-upside guys like Miley, and contending teams aren't going to be able to spare the kind of assets that make the 2016 team better (elite bullpen arms, etc). If you're getting prospects in return, what's the point? Miley's contract has a $6.4m AAV, which is not much, and if they really need the salary space that badly (which I am skeptical of), there are easier ways to get there (e.g., trading Hanigan's $3.5m or Buchholz's $13m). -It's not like you're blocking Owens, either-- he's the sixth man on the depth chart, and those guys almost inevitably pitch 100+ MLB innings. Starting pitcher is probably the one position where if one of your guys looks MLB-ready, you can and will find a spot for him in the majors (see, e.g., Eduardo Rodriguez this year). They could use the depth, too-- there's a bunch of names on the depth chart, but they all have question marks. Wright is out of options, Barnes is likely bullpen-bound, and Johnson has injury concerns. Kelly actually does appear to have options left, but he might be bullpen-bound as well and has performance question marks. After them, there's no one on the horizon.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 22:43:27 GMT -5
Wright, too, has produced at an MLB level similar to what Miley has done this year. No. No he has not. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8185&position=PYes, Miley has superior FIP/xFIP. Yes, those numbers tend to vary less year-to-year. Both are surrogate markers for the true outcome of runs allowed. Wright has a lower ERA, better BAA, and slightly worse K/9 and BB/9. HR have killed him (and probably his FIP). I'd say they're "similar." You can argue that qualification if you like.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2015 23:07:35 GMT -5
A few scattered thoughts: -Yes, Miley has only averaged an extra out a start, but that's 5% extra value, which absolutely needs to be included in the analysis. Owens has always been an inefficient pitcher who struggles to go deep into games because of his walk/strikeout-heavy profile, and that's unlikely to change at the major league level. The thing is, he's averaging actually less than an extra start per out...something like 3-4% more....its really a negligible, non-reliable difference. The removal of a single short start negates that difference, or if we want to believe that Owens was on a short leash in his first few starts, that probably comes close to washing out the difference as well. Your other points I don't argue with though.....although I'm not sure Telson is underrating Owens. He's repeatedly said you have to give up something to get something back in return. He's just confident that we can replace his value with in-house options, as am I. I guess I'm that much of a believer in Owens. His minor league track record puts Miley's to shame, and the way Owens finished in Triple-A and has pitched in the majors thus far indicates to me that he's ready. Others may not agree, but I think he's the level of player that you don't block if he's ready for the big show. Maybe just barely, but still....
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 23:19:03 GMT -5
A few scattered thoughts: -Yes, Miley has only averaged an extra out a start, but that's 5% extra value, which absolutely needs to be included in the analysis. Owens has always been an inefficient pitcher who struggles to go deep into games because of his walk/strikeout-heavy profile, and that's unlikely to change at the major league level. -You're way, way underselling Miley. He hasn't pitched like a fungible back-end starter, but like a league-average starter on a per-inning basis, both this year (104 ERA-, 96 FIP-, 100 xFIP-) and over his career (98 ERA-, 99 FIP-, 98 xFIP-). When you combine that with his ability to eat innings, you get something like a 2.5 to 3.0 win player and almost the definition of a number three starter. You should definitely not take that sort of production for granted-- league-average doesn't sound that impressive, but those guys don't grow on trees. That production makes Miley one of the 50 or so best pitchers in baseball, and that's very, very unlikely to be cobbled together from guys like Wright or Kelly. Maybe Owens is that good someday, but I'm skeptical that he'll approach it in 2016. -I'm not sure you can get trade Miley for comparable 2016 production. I've made this argument before, but rebuilding teams don't trade for innings-eating low-upside guys like Miley, and contending teams aren't going to be able to spare the kind of assets that make the 2016 team better (elite bullpen arms, etc). If you're getting prospects in return, what's the point? Miley's contract has a $6.4m AAV, which is not much, and if they really need the salary space that badly (which I am skeptical of), there are easier ways to get there (e.g., trading Hanigan's $3.5m or Buchholz's $13m). -It's not like you're blocking Owens, either-- he's the sixth man on the depth chart, and those guys almost inevitably pitch 100+ MLB innings. Starting pitcher is probably the one position where if one of your guys looks MLB-ready, you can and will find a spot for him in the majors (see, e.g., Eduardo Rodriguez this year). They could use the depth, too-- there's a bunch of names on the depth chart, but they all have question marks. Wright is out of options, Barnes is likely bullpen-bound, and Johnson has injury concerns. Kelly actually does appear to have options left, but he might be bullpen-bound as well and has performance question marks. After them, there's no one on the horizon. Trading Buchholz is a viable route only if he can pitch. Otherwise, why exercise the option? In that case you're paying 13M to a guy who is untradeable or has minimal value. You're projecting a 22-y/o rookie pitcher to continue to pitch the same as he currently has. Same command. Same IP/GS. He's improved in efficiency as the season's gone on. He's gotten better as the season's gone on. He's 22. The idea that he can't improve 5% (!!) in efficiency simply by virtue of MLB experience...I'd love to hear the justification for that line of thinking. He's had several starts pitching into the 8th, including against some good teams. As for his minor-league career, maybe at Greenville (when he was on pitch limits), and earlier this year...but 2014 doesn't really fit your mold. And frankly, pitchers evolve just like hitters do. Look at Bogaerts's total change in approach, or Betts being aggressive with outside pitches, or Bradley cutting out some excess movement and learning to turn on an inside pitch. You're telling me that Owens, with an elite CH (a great GB/weak contact pitch) can't somehow improve to get one more out per game? Did you bother to look at the data for Lester's 2006? Because he was exactly the type of pitcher you're declaring Owens to be, with similar first-year innings totals, and he markedly improved his command the next year. You're speaking as if it's a rarity...yet it's quite common. Yes, I'm underrating Miley, that is true. He's solid, but totally unspectacular. I admitted as much earlier. He's also the only tradeable asset in the rotation, until Buchholz has some innings of quality pitching under his belt. Porcello is going nowhere. Kelly's been injured and would net a weak return. Trading Rodriguez would be flat-out stupid. Idk, maybe it's more reason to hold on to Miley, put Owens in the 5th spot, and shuttle Kelly. But I'm of a mind that Owens has earned a rotation spot next year, and I think it makes sense to shop Miley (I've given my rationale there already, so I'm not going to rehash it) if they get a TOR starter. What's the point of prospects? Idk, flip them with redundant pieces from the Sox' own system for a rotation upgrade? For Aroldis Chapman? I don't understand how you can so tout Miley in one paragraph, and in the next claim he has minimal use as a trade piece. In the end, it comes down to risk aversion. You're more risk-averse than me. It's not like I want to release the guy...but I think it's worth looking at him as the piece to help fill other holes, once the #1 rotation spot is filled. Is keeping him a bad idea? Not at all...he's pretty much the safest bet around to go 13-11, 4.00 on a 90-win team, and give you 200 innings. That's a valuable pitcher, no doubt.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2015 5:58:36 GMT -5
The thing is, he's averaging actually less than an extra start per out...something like 3-4% more....its really a negligible, non-reliable difference. The removal of a single short start negates that difference, or if we want to believe that Owens was on a short leash in his first few starts, that probably comes close to washing out the difference as well. To be clear, I'm not basing that innings projection on just Owens' brief major-league track record, but also his minor league track record both this year and over his career. It also makes intuitive sense that a pitcher with a penchant for walks/strikeouts is unable to go as deep into games as a guy who is more pitch-to-contact.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2015 6:26:54 GMT -5
Trading Buchholz is a viable route only if he can pitch. Otherwise, why exercise the option? In that case you're paying 13M to a guy who is untradeable or has minimal value. You're projecting a 22-y/o rookie pitcher to continue to pitch the same as he currently has. Same command. Same IP/GS. He's improved in efficiency as the season's gone on. He's gotten better as the season's gone on. He's 22. The idea that he can't improve 5% (!!) in efficiency simply by virtue of MLB experience...I'd love to hear the justification for that line of thinking. He's had several starts pitching into the 8th, including against some good teams. As for his minor-league career, maybe at Greenville (when he was on pitch limits), and earlier this year...but 2014 doesn't really fit your mold. And frankly, pitchers evolve just like hitters do. Look at Bogaerts's total change in approach, or Betts being aggressive with outside pitches, or Bradley cutting out some excess movement and learning to turn on an inside pitch. You're telling me that Owens, with an elite CH (a great GB/weak contact pitch) can't somehow improve to get one more out per game? Did you bother to look at the data for Lester's 2006? Because he was exactly the type of pitcher you're declaring Owens to be, with similar first-year innings totals, and he markedly improved his command the next year. You're speaking as if it's a rarity...yet it's quite common. Yes, I'm underrating Miley, that is true. He's solid, but totally unspectacular. I admitted as much earlier. He's also the only tradeable asset in the rotation, until Buchholz has some innings of quality pitching under his belt. Porcello is going nowhere. Kelly's been injured and would net a weak return. Trading Rodriguez would be flat-out stupid. Idk, maybe it's more reason to hold on to Miley, put Owens in the 5th spot, and shuttle Kelly. But I'm of a mind that Owens has earned a rotation spot next year, and I think it makes sense to shop Miley (I've given my rationale there already, so I'm not going to rehash it) if they get a TOR starter. What's the point of prospects? Idk, flip them with redundant pieces from the Sox' own system for a rotation upgrade? For Aroldis Chapman? I don't understand how you can so tout Miley in one paragraph, and in the next claim he has minimal use as a trade piece. In the end, it comes down to risk aversion. You're more risk-averse than me. It's not like I want to release the guy...but I think it's worth looking at him as the piece to help fill other holes, once the #1 rotation spot is filled. Is keeping him a bad idea? Not at all...he's pretty much the safest bet around to go 13-11, 4.00 on a 90-win team, and give you 200 innings. That's a valuable pitcher, no doubt. There has not been any indication that Buchholz needs Tommy John surgery (he's had an MRI done that showed no ligament damage, just a muscle strain), and he'll have thrown two bullpens by the end of the 2015 season. He should be able to have a full offseason and be ready to pitch going into next year, and I'm confident that he's fully movable, if necessary. You're right, the major difference is that I'm not comfortable expecting, as a median projection, that Owens takes a significant step forward next year. For every 2008 Lester or 2015 Bogaerts/Bradley, you have a 2014 Bogaerts/Bradley or 2013 Middlebrooks or 2014 Webster/De La Rosa. Players don't develop in a linear fashion, and there are enough questions about Owens from both a scouting and statistical point of view (mostly related to his command and fly ball tendencies) that he could well be a replacement-level player next year. If you're relying on him in the rotation and he fails, the options behind him are underwhelming, and it could tank a promising season. On the other side of that equation, if he starts the season as the sixth starter in the rotation and does take a step forward, they will undoubtedly find reps for him. I think the Red Sox have enough prospect depth (most of it in the low minors) to acquire whatever upgrades are necessary next year. Trading Miley for prospects is not an imperative, and it would represent trading 2016 wins for wins three or more years down the road, which is something I'm not really inclined to do. As you've nicely illustrated, I also think steady, low-upside guys like Miley are generally undervalued on the trade market. With his performance and cheap contract, he should be worth a ton on the trade market (he projects to contribute something like ~ 25m $20m in surplus value over the next three years, which is on par with not that much less than, say, Cole Hamels), but I don't think he'll fetch that sort of return.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 1, 2015 7:07:00 GMT -5
On this board and (probably) in the trade market, league average production is generally undervalued, I think. With a rotation, it's not a guy like Miley that's the problem, it's the replacement-level (or below) pitching when guys get hurt that kills teams. Miley soaks up a lot of innings at roughly league-average production. That's good! He's not exactly a guy you build around or anything, but the stability he provides is extremely important.
Of all the major league acquisitions over last winter, Miley was the best. Low bar, admittedly, but he gave exactly what was expected of him.
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Post by awall on Oct 1, 2015 7:14:04 GMT -5
2015: $3.5 million, 2016: $6 million, 2017: $8.75 million, 2018: $12 million club option ($500,000 buyout)
Why on earth would you trade Miley when his production costs you the above?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Oct 1, 2015 7:45:14 GMT -5
Look at Jon Lester's 2006. Same age as Owens, similar IP, similar (actually slightly worse) AAA performance that year, same K/9, much worse BB/9, less impressive minor league career, and FIP/xFIP substantially worse (around 5). www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=PI don't know what the projection systems expected, but I'm sure it was way off, because he was getting his first taste of MLB at 22. His next year was excellent. Young pitchers improve, usually. That's the nature of experience. Give the kid a shot, he's earned it. Yeah, similar years, except for, you know, the little matter of the August diagnosis of cancer. I think the projection systems said he had a really good chance of not dying.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2015 8:20:14 GMT -5
To be clear, there are scenarios in which I would trade Miley. That would require (a) being confident that Johnson's elbow concerns are not a concern (if he is healthy, that adds an extra layer of depth that might mitigate some of my depth concerns) and (b) getting enough in return in Miley (something like $20m of surplus value, with a preference for major league players of need (starting-caliber fourth outfielder, elite relief pitcher) but a willingness to accept a prospect package headed by a top-75 or so prospect). But I'm not confident in either of those scenarios, especially (b). ADD: to support my surplus value estimate, here's a comparison of Miley and Mike Leake over the past three years. They're basically the exact same pitcher (one caveat: Miley is a year older). Miley will be paid $26.75m over the next three years (with an option for the third year). Leake is going to get something like, what, 5/$80m?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 1, 2015 9:26:23 GMT -5
"If you're relying on him in the rotation and he fails, the options behind him are underwhelming, and it could tank a promising season. On the other side of that equation, if he starts the season as the sixth starter in the rotation and does take a step forward, they will undoubtedly find reps for him."
I agree with this 100% and to believer otherwise to put it nicely is unwise. Depth at pitching is not only a nice thing to have but a necessity. As you stated growth is not linear otherwise it would mean that all young players get better all the time and we know that's not true. In addition pitching especially young pitching is the hardest thing to predict in baseball. Someone used Xander as an example of young players getting better to illustrate that Owens will be as good as Miley next year however they are conveniently forgetting that Xander came up in 2013 and did very well THEN struggled last year before putting it together this year AND he was one of the highest rated prospects in the game. Owens despite all of our high hopes has never been rated nearly as highly as Bogaerts who is a hitter and easier to predict than a pitcher. I've stated this Ad naseum but it bares repeating, According to Ted Williams batters should be judged after they have had 1,000 ML at bats and pitchers should have 500 IP. That's because it takes about 2 seasons at the major league level for 99% of players to figure it out. I have high hopes for Owens to but to bank on it is foolhardy at best. Even starting the season in Pawtucket he'll more than likely end up getting more than the 58 IP he has this year. If however he's your replacement as opposed to whatever leftover you pick, we are far more likely to end up better off in the end.
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