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Red Sox acquire RHP Nate Eovaldi from TB for Jalen Beeks
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2018 10:29:33 GMT -5
I wouldn't put that much emphasis on 2 starts where he had awful BABIP luck. He only had 1 start. Second appearance was in relief. And I wouldn't characterize 9 runs in just over 6 innings pitched as "awful BABIP luck." Mediocre stuff plus poor location is a bad combination. Maybe he figures it out in Tampa, and replicates his AAA performance at the MLB level. Like DD, I'd take the under on that. He didn't have mediocre stuff. He got a lot of swings and misses.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2018 10:32:00 GMT -5
He wouldn't need to "replicate his AAA performance at the MLB level" to be worth more between 2019 and 2024 than Eovaldi will be over the next 10 weeks.
This also shows the lack of depth in the system. As a straight value play, Beeks for Eovaldi isn't something I love but it also isn't insane. But there really isn't anyone else in Triple-A that you feel comfortable calling up for a spot start or two. Without getting into the long-term future, the depth of the 2019 team is definitely worse now. Beeks and Shawaryn are the only two prospects in the system in the Top 20 about Class A.
EDIT: The more I dig into Eovaldi's numbers, the more I'd be okay with this is he's kept strictly to a twice-through-the-order routine. His larger-than-average third-time-faced penalty basically accounts for all of that .34 difference between his ERA and FIP.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 25, 2018 10:39:29 GMT -5
You can thank Pomeranz for this trade. He's now cost us Espinoza and Beeks and is 0-2 vs one of the worst teams in decades this year.
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Post by ponch73 on Jul 25, 2018 10:40:22 GMT -5
He only had 1 start. Second appearance was in relief. And I wouldn't characterize 9 runs in just over 6 innings pitched as "awful BABIP luck." Mediocre stuff plus poor location is a bad combination. Maybe he figures it out in Tampa, and replicates his AAA performance at the MLB level. Like DD, I'd take the under on that. He didn't have mediocre stuff. He got a lot of swings and misses. Seriously? He had 10 swings and misses in 137 pitches thrown. In comparison, he gave up 11 hits. And 9 runs. To the Tigers and the Rangers.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 25, 2018 10:42:22 GMT -5
I don't love this deal but I completely understand the need for it.
This tells me that:
1) They don't trust Pomeranz to be a viable starter the remainder of the season. They're not comfortable with his stuff. 2) They don't know if E-Rod is really going to make it back for the end of the season and if he does they don't know if he'll immediately revert back to what he was prior to the injury. 3) They don't have anybody on the roster if E-Rod isn't back that they would feel comfortable giving a post-season start to. 4) They consider Beeks a marginal back end starter who is not ready to be that in 2018 when they really need him to be.
There's no doubt the Sox are going to get killed on this deal if you're looking at WAR value. Beeks will be very useful for TB, especially the hybrid type pitchers they seem to use. Beeks will get starts. He'll be used in relief.
I don't know how good he'll be. I remember reading something where somebody asked a "minor league expert" if Beeks was a GUY or just a guy and the answer was the latter, meaning that he was never going to be better than a back end/bullpen type guy.
The thing that stinks is that the Sox don't have a guy they can yo-yo up and down when they need spot starts. They'll have to try to find the next Hector Velazquez because they don't have a guy right now that you'd want to give a spot start do that's in AA or AAA other that Shawayrn who is the only guy left - and I like him better than Beeks. I hope this forces them to keep him! Although I could see him still going in a deal for a reliever.
I've never been a big Eovaldi fan (maybe because his name reminds me too much of Schiraldi). He's got great stuff, but the results are never really there.
I looked at his numbers and de-emphasized his numbers prior to his injury. He's not a bad pitcher. His FIP is usually just under 4 and his ERA just above 4. This year his FIP and ERA are a little over 4, but his K/BB ratio this year is 53-8! And he hasn't given up a ton of hits. He's getting hurt by the HR ball.
I think the Sox, if they need a Game 4 start will turn to Eovaldi, particularly against a Houston or NY, two teams that are stacked with righty hitters. I don't think they want to take their chances with Johnson in that situation. And Eovaldi has a ceiling in which he can put it all together and be really good with stuff that can play up in October, but he never really seems to reach that ceiling.
Still, the Sox got better today and this year's team. I'd have hated to roll the dice with Pomeranz and hope that Johnson/Velazquez hold up or that Beeks suddenly figured it out at the major league level. And if the Sox sustained another starting pitcher injury I'd hate to think where that would put them.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 10:43:17 GMT -5
He only had 1 start. Second appearance was in relief. And I wouldn't characterize 9 runs in just over 6 innings pitched as "awful BABIP luck." Mediocre stuff plus poor location is a bad combination. Maybe he figures it out in Tampa, and replicates his AAA performance at the MLB level. Like DD, I'd take the under on that. He didn't have mediocre stuff. He got a lot of swings and misses.In his limited MLB sample, Beeks had 7.3% swinging strikes. With apologies to Mr. Beeks, that is a terrible amount of swinging strikes. Here's everyone who's under 8% with more than 50 innings pitched this year: Doug Fister Bartolo Colon Matt Koch Andrew Cashner Ty Blach Jake Arrieta T.J. McFarland Alex Cobb Andrew Suarez Dylan Covey Trevor Williams Brandon McCarthy Sal Romano Lucas Giolito Mike Wright Hector Santiago Mike Leake Daniel Mengden Jose Quintana Brad Keller How many of those guys do you want starting for your team? How many of those guys have you ever heard of before?
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 25, 2018 10:46:09 GMT -5
My extremely hot take on the trade is that I like it. I think that we really needed a back of the rotation starter to fill in for Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Wright and I didn't feel comfortable putting both Johnson/Velasquez in the rotation 2 of every 5 starts. I think that Eovaldi just needs to be decent in front of our offense in order to win games.
I understand the risk in the long term for the deal, but I think Eovaldi helps us more the rest of the season than Britton will the Yankees, and I think that we still have enough in the tank to go after a 2B or a reliever. I may be a little worried that by going after a relatively cheap starter means that we aren't going to go over the 237 cap, which will make a trade for Dozier/Cabrera and a reliever significantly more difficult.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2018 10:46:12 GMT -5
Adjusted expected wOBA.
Translations to traditional quality ratings:
< .275, true ace
< .292, #1
<. 313, #2 < .336, #3 < .354, #4 (actually .348 this year, if you count qualifiers)
< .373, #5
.244 Chris Sale .293 Luis Severino .294 Eduardo Rodriguez .295 Jonathan Loaisiga
.299 CC Sabathia .302 Nathan Eovaldi .312 Rick Porcello .324 Brian Johnson (includes relief; would be better as a starter)
.325 Masahiro Tanaka .326 Steven Wright (includes final start when hurt) .335 Hector Velazquez (includes relief)
.336 Sonny Gray .338 David Price .354 Luis Cessa .371 Drew Pomeranz .409 Jalen Beeks
According to BP, Eovaldi faced hitters who were collectively 11% better than average. That adds .014 to your wOBA allowed.
Imagine the above table with Eovaldi in blue instead of red.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2018 10:49:51 GMT -5
His swinging strike rate with Pawtucket was 12.8%, which is outstanding. Combining that with very good control, he had a massive lead in the IL in K%-BB%.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 10:54:54 GMT -5
He wouldn't need to "replicate his AAA performance at the MLB level" to be worth more between 2019 and 2024 than Eovaldi will be over the next 10 weeks. This also shows the lack of depth in the system. As a straight value play, Beeks for Eovaldi isn't something I love but it also isn't insane. But there really isn't anyone else in Triple-A that you feel comfortable calling up for a spot start or two. Without getting into the long-term future, the depth of the 2019 team is definitely worse now. Beeks and Shawaryn are the only two prospects in the system in the Top 20 about Class A. EDIT: The more I dig into Eovaldi's numbers, the more I'd be okay with this is he's kept strictly to a twice-through-the-order routine. His larger-than-average third-time-faced penalty basically accounts for all of that .34 difference between his ERA and FIP. I hope there's a chance for this to turn into a trade-and-sign move. Eovaldi is a fireballer who's been trying to figure out an effective pitch mix for his entire career. In 2016, he started working in a cutter, and this year he's throwing it about a quarter of the time, and it's been effective. His four-seam, which has traditionally gotten hammered despite averaging 97 mph, has done much better this year as well, so maybe those two play well off each other. Not saying it's a sure thing by any means, but I think there's some real breakout potential here.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2018 10:55:36 GMT -5
He didn't have mediocre stuff. He got a lot of swings and misses.In his limited MLB sample, Beeks had 7.3% swinging strikes. With apologies to Mr. Beeks, that is a terrible amount of swinging strikes. Here's everyone who's under 8% with more than 50 innings pitched this year: Doug Fister Bartolo Colon Matt Koch Andrew Cashner Ty Blach Jake Arrieta T.J. McFarland Alex Cobb Andrew Suarez Dylan Covey Trevor Williams Brandon McCarthy Sal Romano Lucas Giolito Mike Wright Hector Santiago Mike Leake Daniel Mengden Jose Quintana Brad Keller How many of those guys do you want starting for your team? How many of those guys have you ever heard of before? I misremembered a tweet about it without looking it up. I don't make any decisions about pitchers after 2 appearances unlike a lot of people around here lately. As James pointed out in the previous post, the 12.8% is higher than Severino. Obviously there's the jump in quality of hitters, but it's not crazy to think that Beeks will get better results in the majors based on what he is doing in AAA. I bet there aren't a lot of pitchers that have ERAs 5-6 times higher in the majors than in AAA.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 25, 2018 10:58:15 GMT -5
I think it doesn't make a ton of sense to put too much stock in a bad start and a bad relief appearance for Beeks when talking about his long-term future.
I think it makes sense not to trust him to contribute more than an Eovaldi would during a year the Sox are set up to win - and I mean win without every little thing having to break right for this to happen.
Eovaldi is far from perfect but he should be able to stabilize the back end of the rotation - a heck of a lot more than Beeks will in 2018.
As far as what Beeks truly is - I really don't know. I don't know that his AAA number really indicate who he'll be in the majors nor do I know that his two bad appearances tell you that he'll be a non-entity in the majors.
All I can do is read the scouting reports which indicate that he's major league caliber but not somebody you're going to necessarily want to give a playoff start to down the road. So I'm trusting that the Sox didn't give up a guy who is going to be nearly impossible to replace. I have no doubt it will bite the Sox in the butt in the future.
I mean, one of the understated reasons for the Sox success this year is that when they've had to use a spot starter, every single time Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez have risen to the occasion. That is a rare thing. I think if you depended on them, you'd be in big trouble, but what they have done this year has been invaluable. Other teams use their spot starters and they get mauled.
Meanwhile the Sox have been winning those starts. I wouldn't want to press my luck with that but it shows the importance of having guys who can yo-yo back and forth and keep you in the game, and I think down the road Beeks could at least do that. Now we have to hope Shawaryn can or that they, in the offseason, can snag a guy like that - somebody with options who can contribute.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2018 11:02:44 GMT -5
He wouldn't need to "replicate his AAA performance at the MLB level" to be worth more between 2019 and 2024 than Eovaldi will be over the next 10 weeks. This also shows the lack of depth in the system. As a straight value play, Beeks for Eovaldi isn't something I love but it also isn't insane. But there really isn't anyone else in Triple-A that you feel comfortable calling up for a spot start or two. Without getting into the long-term future, the depth of the 2019 team is definitely worse now. Beeks and Shawaryn are the only two prospects in the system in the Top 20 about Class A. EDIT: The more I dig into Eovaldi's numbers, the more I'd be okay with this is he's kept strictly to a twice-through-the-order routine. His larger-than-average third-time-faced penalty basically accounts for all of that .34 difference between his ERA and FIP. I hope there's a chance for this to turn into a trade-and-sign move. Eovaldi is a fireballer who's been trying to figure out an effective pitch mix for his entire career. In 2016, he started working in a cutter, and this year he's throwing it about a quarter of the time, and it's been effective. His four-seam, which has traditionally gotten hammered despite averaging 97 mph, has done much better this year as well, so maybe those two play well off each other. Not saying it's a sure thing by any means, but I think there's some real breakout potential here. How did no one bring this up before?
He's had great success pitching for the savvy Rays, even if the traditional numbers don't show it. He seems to have already broken out. He'll continue that process working here with Bannister et al. They'll have inside track on re-signing him. This is sort of the negation of the Rich Hill blunder, with the difference being that Eovaldi's much younger.
I love this move, and Beeks has been a fave of mine since I saw him pitch the game of his life (to that point) for Salem versus Wilmington.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 25, 2018 11:03:44 GMT -5
Beeks was a sell high. He has limited upside and this team had a need and he couldn’t fill it. This season is way more important than 2019 on and the fact we are talking about losing a depth guy tells me all I need to know. Also, this could be a 2 for one trade. Get the back end starter they need now and the late inning power reliever for the post season, if Erod can make it back healthy either Erod or Eovaldi can be that guy.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 11:05:00 GMT -5
He wouldn't need to "replicate his AAA performance at the MLB level" to be worth more between 2019 and 2024 than Eovaldi will be over the next 10 weeks. This also shows the lack of depth in the system. As a straight value play, Beeks for Eovaldi isn't something I love but it also isn't insane. But there really isn't anyone else in Triple-A that you feel comfortable calling up for a spot start or two. Without getting into the long-term future, the depth of the 2019 team is definitely worse now. Beeks and Shawaryn are the only two prospects in the system in the Top 20 about Class A. EDIT: The more I dig into Eovaldi's numbers, the more I'd be okay with this is he's kept strictly to a twice-through-the-order routine. His larger-than-average third-time-faced penalty basically accounts for all of that .34 difference between his ERA and FIP. I hope there's a chance for this to turn into a trade-and-sign move. Eovaldi is a fireballer who's been trying to figure out an effective pitch mix for his entire career. In 2016, he started working in a cutter, and this year he's throwing it about a quarter of the time, and it's been effective. His four-seam, which has traditionally gotten hammered despite averaging 97 mph, has done much better this year as well, so maybe those two play well off each other. Not saying it's a sure thing by any means, but I think there's some real breakout potential here. Oh hey, check it out, just like every other observation you could make about a player and his adjustments, Jeff Sullivan already noticed it two weeks ago: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nathan-eovaldi-might-be-the-best-starter-on-the-market/ Dombrowski does have a history of acquiring starters right on the verge of breaking out...
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Post by jdb on Jul 25, 2018 11:05:59 GMT -5
I wonder if this is a guy Banister recommended?
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Post by h11233 on Jul 25, 2018 11:06:40 GMT -5
He wouldn't need to "replicate his AAA performance at the MLB level" to be worth more between 2019 and 2024 than Eovaldi will be over the next 10 weeks. WAR is a useful stat, but I don't think it's very useful in evaluating a trade like this. Who knows what the Sox chances of winning a title will be between 2019 and 2024... but they're pretty good in 2018 and this trade increases those chances. WAR doesn't account for that and it would be very difficult to quantify. Addressing a need via trade at the deadline will always cost you. I think this one was worth it.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2018 11:07:18 GMT -5
It's like we traded for the next Joe Kelly. I see Eovaldi as a probable good but not elite relief pitcher or mediocre starter judging by his time through order and leverage splits.
If he changed and greatly improved at age 28, then yay for us.
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Post by ponch73 on Jul 25, 2018 11:08:03 GMT -5
He wouldn't need to "replicate his AAA performance at the MLB level" to be worth more between 2019 and 2024 than Eovaldi will be over the next 10 weeks. This also shows the lack of depth in the system. As a straight value play, Beeks for Eovaldi isn't something I love but it also isn't insane. But there really isn't anyone else in Triple-A that you feel comfortable calling up for a spot start or two. Without getting into the long-term future, the depth of the 2019 team is definitely worse now. Beeks and Shawaryn are the only two prospects in the system in the Top 20 about Class A. EDIT: The more I dig into Eovaldi's numbers, the more I'd be okay with this is he's kept strictly to a twice-through-the-order routine. His larger-than-average third-time-faced penalty basically accounts for all of that .34 difference between his ERA and FIP. I think you're missing the point of this trade. As the high payroll, big market team currently sitting in the catbird seat of the AL East, your goal is not to maximize expected value between now and 2024. It's to maximize expected value between now and 2019. 1. Eovaldi stabilizes the back end of the rotation. Instead of getting 4-5 IP and 4-5 ER starts from Pomeranz, you'll hopefully be getting 5-6 IP and 2-3 ER stars from Eovaldi. 2. Beeks is fungible. Or, to be more charitable, he is likely to be fungible through 2019.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2018 11:15:50 GMT -5
He wouldn't need to "replicate his AAA performance at the MLB level" to be worth more between 2019 and 2024 than Eovaldi will be over the next 10 weeks. WAR is a useful stat, but I don't think it's very useful in evaluating a trade like this. Who knows what the Sox chances of winning a title will be between 2019 and 2024... but they're pretty good in 2018 and this trade increases those chances. WAR doesn't account for that and it would be very difficult to quantify. Addressing a need via trade at the deadline will always cost you. I think this one was worth it. Who mentioned WAR? You seem to be projecting. There's obviously a fine line somewhere between "present value being worth more than future value," and "any present value being worth more than all future value." It's the line where trading Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling for 2.5 years of Mike Boddicker ends up being fine, because the guys they dealt turn into a good and elite player years later, but trading Jeff Bagwell for eight weeks of Larry Andersen is bad in a way I don't think I need to explain. Jalen Beeks isn't Jeff Bagwell, of course. But the surety that people have that Nathan Eovaldi is good just seems strange to me. His upside his high, but... he hasn't quite put it together. If Cora and Levangie's pitchers usage and Bannister's tinkering can make him live up to that, even for a short time, then that's awesome and I'll be happy to be wrong!
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 25, 2018 11:16:36 GMT -5
It's like we traded for the next Joe Kelly. I see Eovaldi as a probable good but not elite relief pitcher or mediocre starter judging by his time through order and leverage splits. If he changed and greatly improved at age 28, then yay for us. Funny you said that. I had the same thought. My initial thought was the Sox got the Joe Kelly of starting pitchers - great stuff, blazing fastball.....where are the results?! But then I looked at his K-BB ratio and stopped thinking Joe Kelly. I think Joe Kelly walks more guys in a week than Eovaldi has during his 50 plus innings. Still your point stands about hoping that he figures it out. Now I wonder - the Sox really seem to be trying not to go over the 237 million mark. Eovaldi is cheap. This tells me that we're going to be groaning when we see guys we really like go for Yates or somebody like that - a cheap reliever pitching well. It also tells me that the Sox won't be getting a 2b. I'd so much rather get Soria and Dozier (I'd even settle for Cabrera) than give up Houck, Dalbec or Chavis or whoever for a "controllable cheap" reliever and then do nothing at 2b while the Sox try to make due with two utility guys and a 37 year old who has seen his best days.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 25, 2018 11:16:56 GMT -5
Dombrowski, destroyer of farm systems. God this team will be awful in 3 years.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 25, 2018 11:21:13 GMT -5
Definitely not a fan of this. Eovaldi is not good. Would rather they give innings to Beeks. Sorry. Is this a starter move?
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Post by klostrophobic on Jul 25, 2018 11:23:29 GMT -5
How many outs will Eovaldi record in the playoffs? Just a disgusting trade even if you think Beeks is not a good pitcher.
Is he going to start in the playoffs?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 11:23:31 GMT -5
Dombrowski, destroyer of farm systems. God this team will be awful in 3 years.If that's actually true, that's all the more reason to go all in right now. What, you need Beeks around so you can win 79 games instead of 78 three years from now?
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