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9/24-9/26 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 25, 2018 13:26:38 GMT -5
Bring back Farrell anyone ? Having won it all with a less talented team in 2013, I have no doubt he could have done it with this collection of stars. We have a comedian in house.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 25, 2018 14:19:57 GMT -5
damn - rain out tonight. playing 2 tomorrow.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2018 16:17:59 GMT -5
Oakland has 11% chance of hosting the wildcard. Using the 50/50 coin flip method.
Yanks have tiebreaker, A's need to gain 2 1/2 games in 6 days.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 25, 2018 17:13:26 GMT -5
Having won it all with a less talented team in 2013, I have no doubt he could have done it with this collection of stars. Absolutely. Farrell is a Red Sox legend and he was a winner during his time in the dugout. People can mock him all they want, I'm just thankful he got us a World Series.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 25, 2018 20:13:27 GMT -5
Having won it all with a less talented team in 2013, I have no doubt he could have done it with this collection of stars. Absolutely. Farrell is a Red Sox legend and he was a winner during his time in the dugout. People can mock him all they want, I'm just thankful he got us a World Series. Well, he and his coaches took the Sox from last to first in 2013. We owe him gratitude for changing the culture and making it happen. During his time with the Sox his personal life clearly got in the way, fighting a PR nightmare and cancer. Hopefully we can empathize with that. He developed patterns of bullpen use and PH &PR use and other in game issues that many (including me) took umbrage with. Some believe that, despite also winning the ALE Division in ‘16 & ‘17, he should have taken the team farther. Maybe. The term “farreled” was not a compliment. But during 5 years of managing the Sox he actually did win a WS and two ALE championships in a very strong division. So maybe now, after winning the ALE for a 3rd straight year, it’s time to look forward, not backward, and time for healing. It really is just a game.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 25, 2018 20:58:19 GMT -5
Dave D came out today and named Sale as game 1 starter in the playoffs. Things I'd like to see in the last five regular season games - kind of a tune up post Mookie play enough to keep him sharp, get stolen base #30 and seal the MVP (and WAR lead) Benny start to stroke the ball with regularity, though a bit of rest could help him JBJ continue to work on going the other way to get his hits JDM finding his bash stroke again - the hits are coming, but the power is a bit down Nunez demonstrating he is healthy enough for a roster spot post season
Xander get to 100 RBI (he had some golden opportunities last night to get a few more than he did) Devers play in control - both in the field, and at bat Moreland start to show his bat isn't too slow to be used often in the post season Swihart get some more playing time to keep the bat fresh Leon start to figure out what's gone wrong A bit more stretched out Sale Porcello with a bit more life and movement and finish on his pitches a bit more resolution to the pen - a few more chances for Kelly, Poyner, Barnes, maybe Johnson, as Cora sorts out the post season roster spots - in differing leverage situations Enough innings to keep Kimbrel fresh I am okay with Nunez not demonstrating this.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2018 21:54:19 GMT -5
The NL has become interesting. We may have tiebreaker baseball on Mon. And even Tues. (Which would push the wildcard to Wed)
Chance of a Mil v Cubs tiebreaker on Mon is 25% Oakland home field chance is down to 9%
Edit: After Oak loss, hf chance is 2%
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2018 1:08:59 GMT -5
Yankees won, A's lost. It's close to over.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 26, 2018 4:18:42 GMT -5
Yankees won, A's lost. It's close to over. I guess the good news there, and it is truly good news, is that if the nyfy beat the A’s at home next week, then games 3 & 4 of the ALDS will NOT require an always difficult west coast trip for the Sox. And I like the chances of Sale and Price at home followed by Eovaldi and ERod in the Bronx.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 26, 2018 6:01:18 GMT -5
Yankees won, A's lost. It's close to over. I guess the good news there, and it is truly good news, is that if the nyfy beat the A’s at home next week, then games 3 & 4 of the ALDS will NOT require an always difficult west coast trip for the Sox. And I like the chances of Sale and Price at home followed by Eovaldi and ERod in the Bronx. Rick Porcello says hi.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2018 7:20:59 GMT -5
Meaningless but, I'd like to see Mookie with 30 SB, Devers with 20 HR & Xander with 100 RBI
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2018 7:47:00 GMT -5
Boredom question for the oldest farts. Best defensive outfield, Mookie, JBJ & Benny or Jensen, Piersall & Williams. I have then as close to even. JBJ and Pirsall are pretty much washes with JBJ having a very slight nod because of his arm. Mookie is considerably better than Jensen but Williams was considerably better than Benny. Even when you cross check, Mookie is better than Williams but Jensen was equally better than Benny.
Evans, Lynn, Rice get a distant third.
Who do you guys have ? Saberguys need not apply.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2018 8:27:07 GMT -5
Yankees won, A's lost. It's close to over. The A's had a 95.5% chance of winning with an average pitcher on the mound (up 1, 1 out to go, nobody on), and the actual pitcher was Treinen, and they lost. Actually, once Cruz singled and Treinen got a ground ball to Chapman, it was 99.9%, but he bobbled it.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 26, 2018 8:31:17 GMT -5
Sorry philbosox, Williams was not a better defensive outfielder than Benny or even Rice. He was all stick.....an indifferent fielder. Jensen and Piersall were outstanding for their era.
I think our current OF is the best followed by Lynn, Rice and Evans. Benny is better than Rice.
Today's players are more athletic/skilled as fielders INF and OF...just the fact Jack.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2018 8:37:10 GMT -5
I guess the good news there, and it is truly good news, is that if the nyfy beat the A’s at home next week, then games 3 & 4 of the ALDS will NOT require an always difficult west coast trip for the Sox. And I like the chances of Sale and Price at home followed by Eovaldi and ERod in the Bronx. Rick Porcello says hi. Quite possibly from the bullpen.
Everyone in the media has Porcello as our 3rd starter simply because he recently won a CY. But there is hardly any metric over any significant length of time that has Porcello pitching better this year than E-Rod.
I think the strategy may be to have them both ready for game 4 and swap out the starter very quickly if he has no command. They should have an analysis for both guys as to whether they ever recover from a shaky start, and what the odds are given the results to any point. I'd have no problem with Porcello as the starter, but only if they have him on a very short leash.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2018 8:45:25 GMT -5
damn - rain out tonight. playing 2 tomorrow. Which means an extra off-day for Mookie, which knocks 0.1 off his bWAR projection. Also less of a chance of winning 3 of the last 5 games and getting to 109 wins to top the '75 Reds and '86 Mets. It's still probably a good chance, though.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2018 9:08:59 GMT -5
Boredom question for the oldest farts. Best defensive outfield, Mookie, JBJ & Benny or Jensen, Piersall & Williams. I have then as close to even. JBJ and Pirsall are pretty much washes with JBJ having a very slight nod because of his arm. Mookie is considerably better than Jensen but Williams was considerably better than Benny. Even when you cross check, Mookie is better than Williams but Jensen was equally better than Benny. Evans, Lynn, Rice get a distant third. Who do you guys have ? Saberguys need not apply. Right, because objective data makes you stupider.
The catch is that when we think "best defensive OF" I don't think we don't mean a Willie Mays or Andruw Jones in CF flanked by two guys who are a bit above average. That describes the Williams, Piersall, Jensen OF.
Total Zone uses the standard PO, A, and E totals but massages them extensively and produces results that line up really well with reputations and scouting impressions. It has the Piersall OF at +27, +38, +36 runs from 1954 to 1956, but Piersall had +17, +25, and +31 and the other two had a combined +10, +13, and +5. I think the rule of thumb has to be that the best guy can't have more than half the value, or everyone has to be +10 or more.
This year Total Zone has us +11, +25, +21 from left to right.
Lynn looked great but the number of balls he caught, placed in their context, translates to good, not great. Rice was somewhat the opposite -- he looked bad but made a solid number of plays. That OF was +32 in 1975 and +29 in 1979, but it was mostly Evans.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 26, 2018 9:12:08 GMT -5
Boredom question for the oldest farts. Best defensive outfield, Mookie, JBJ & Benny or Jensen, Piersall & Williams. I have then as close to even. JBJ and Pirsall are pretty much washes with JBJ having a very slight nod because of his arm. Mookie is considerably better than Jensen but Williams was considerably better than Benny. Even when you cross check, Mookie is better than Williams but Jensen was equally better than Benny. Evans, Lynn, Rice get a distant third. Who do you guys have ? Saberguys need not apply. Recent nominees: '13 Bradley Ellsbury Victorino. Didn't last Drew Ells Cameron Some combo of Lewis Everett Nixon
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 26, 2018 9:29:23 GMT -5
Ericvan I don't think philbosox was denigrating the stats guys so no offense should be taken. Thank goodness that baseball can be equally enjoyed on more than one level. Phil was musing and asking for reflections of people from an era free from squinting at statistical granularity.
Lynn was a glider and Rice a rumbling tank. Bradley, on reflection, gets to more balls than Lynn and certainly makes more spectacular catches.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 26, 2018 9:34:56 GMT -5
The catch is that when we think "best defensive OF" I don't think we don't mean a Willie Mays or Andruw Jones in CF flanked by two guys who are a bit above average. That describes the Williams, Piersall, Jensen OF. So what you're saying is that we can eliminate that time when Coco Crisp was charged with covering a roughly 200 yard stretch while flanked by Manny Ramirez and the hobbled late-career version of Trot Nixon?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 26, 2018 9:35:09 GMT -5
I guess the good news there, and it is truly good news, is that if the nyfy beat the A’s at home next week, then games 3 & 4 of the ALDS will NOT require an always difficult west coast trip for the Sox. And I like the chances of Sale and Price at home followed by Eovaldi and ERod in the Bronx. Rick Porcello says hi. Hi Rick. Hope you have a great postseason.
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Post by nomar on Sept 26, 2018 10:21:48 GMT -5
Meaningless but, I'd like to see Mookie with 30 SB, Devers with 20 HR & Xander with 100 RBI I want to see Benny and JD go deep once before the playoffs. I think it would do both of them good to see one go out.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2018 10:23:44 GMT -5
Sorry philbosox, Williams was not a better defensive outfielder than Benny or even Rice. He was all stick.....an indifferent fielder. Jensen and Piersall were outstanding for their era. I think our current OF is the best followed by Lynn, Rice and Evans. Benny is better than Rice. Today's players are more athletic/skilled as fielders INF and OF...just the fact Jack. We definitely have different memories of Williams. I recall a Williams that was always in the right place for taking balls off the wall and turning a double into a single. If you think he was indifferent to any part of his game, you weren't watching very close. I also think you seriously overvalue Lynn's defense. As far as the athleticism factor, most debates compare to their contemporaries. It's not a factor. The Boston outfield was also significantly more difficult in all three fields. Left had the ladders on the monster, center had the triangle and flagpole and right didn't have all the padding that prevents ring around triples.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 26, 2018 10:43:35 GMT -5
Ericvan I don't think philbosox was denigrating the stats guys so no offense should be taken. Thank goodness that baseball can be equally enjoyed on more than one level. Phil was musing and asking for reflections of people from an era free from squinting at statistical granularity. Lynn was a glider and Rice a rumbling tank. Bradley, on reflection, gets to more balls than Lynn and certainly makes more spectacular catches. Agree, a historical question based on personal observation, but as always Eric has valuable information. As one of the oldest farts on the board, Ted could do no wrong and his defense came from his baseball smarts and an uncanny ability to play the wall, including how he could anticipate the caroms off the wall. Beni seems to be learning that fast and expect his defensive stats to catch up to his excellent skill set. The Little Professor caught everything near him. Many believed, and not just homers like me, that he was a better defender than his bigger market brother Joe and should have gotten as much love. I think Piersall, my hero, was not quite as good as JBJ, but he was terrific and a rare personality that made the game exciting. Does anyone else remember that when UZR was introduced as the defensive be-all end-all that it was used to portray Ells as a terrible, below average defender, largely based on his routes and arm. He took a merciless beating and, along with non-stop accusations about his physical frailties, left Boston with a bad taste in his mouth. I am still upset about that. He should have won MVP, in the same way JBJ should already be a Gold Glover. 1967 continues to be one of my favorite all-time teams with an awesome OF. Yaz was incredible in every way, as much a force of nature, in his own way, as Ted was. The success of Yaz Bread and Ted’s Root Beer attest to this. Dewey’s arm was a miracle. Rice was a good defender whose real gift was the ability to terrify opposing teams at the plate. However, this OF of Beni, Bradley and Betts is either the best defensively I have ever witnessed or, as JBJ and his mates learn to work together, and as Beni and Mookie grow fully into their positions, they are on the cusp of becoming so. But it’s a trick question for us old farts with sagging memories. Everyone has different ideas of what is best, and I can attest that each bright spot on the Red Sox 118 year continuum is actually very bright and very different, at least the 70+ years I remember well enough to comment about. As incandescent as the bright spots are, to me this game has far too many negatives. As Boston baseball was dying and the Red Sox were talking about moving only about 5,000 fans witnessed Ted’s last AB. Both Piersall and Jensen were vilified for their issues by certain fans, likely from the same family that enjoyed booing Ted and Ells and Punpsie and Becket and JD Drew and A.Gonzales. Old Mr Lane complained repeatedly about taking the flagpole in CF out of play, and everyone was horrified at how the new press boxes forever changed Fenway’s wind patterns, and some even mourned the passing of the old Bug Juice containers. On the other hand, my Dad bragged about the good old days of Duffy’s Cliff and the impact of the Royal Rooters. What a game.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2018 10:44:10 GMT -5
Boredom question for the oldest farts. Best defensive outfield, Mookie, JBJ & Benny or Jensen, Piersall & Williams. I have then as close to even. JBJ and Pirsall are pretty much washes with JBJ having a very slight nod because of his arm. Mookie is considerably better than Jensen but Williams was considerably better than Benny. Even when you cross check, Mookie is better than Williams but Jensen was equally better than Benny. Evans, Lynn, Rice get a distant third. Who do you guys have ? Saberguys need not apply. Right, because objective data makes you stupider. The catch is that when we think "best defensive OF" I don't think we don't mean a Willie Mays or Andruw Jones in CF flanked by two guys who are a bit above average. That describes the Williams, Piersall, Jensen OF.
Total Zone uses the standard PO, A, and E totals but massages them extensively and produces results that line up really well with reputations and scouting impressions. It has the Piersall OF at +27, +38, +36 runs from 1954 to 1956, but Piersall had +17, +25, and +31 and the other two had a combined +10, +13, and +5. I think the rule of thumb has to be that the best guy can't have more than half the value, or everyone has to be +10 or more. This year Total Zone has us +11, +25, +21 from left to right. Lynn looked great but the number of balls he caught, placed in their context, translates to good, not great. Rice was somewhat the opposite -- he looked bad but made a solid number of plays. That OF was +32 in 1975 and +29 in 1979, but it was mostly Evans.
No because not everyone is sold on old fashioned defensive metrics. I prefer to hear people that you know, know what these players actually looked like. Plus this wasn't intended to be a computer baseball discussion (from my part).
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