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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 21:46:53 GMT -5
**I'm very interested with many of the infield FA's to see if they can also play 1st, 2b and 3rd. Id like someone who can hit lh pitching. I love what Pearce has done and what he is. But I'm not sure he can sustain next year. But he has been terrific this post season as well as Eovaldi. Pearce and Eovaldi have proven that you don't need a team filled with big names. This is the main reason why I want Daniel Murphy. He's better than both Moreland and Pearce. He also can give a lot of time off to Pedrioa at second base. Moreland will see a lot of time filling in when someone needs a day off (with Pedrioa, it'll happen frequently). Moreland shouldn't be a regular first baseman in a quality lineup imo. Murphy is way better with the bat, making Moreland a great guy for pinch hitting and filling in as a 10th man off the bench.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 21:52:04 GMT -5
The key thing is if Price's agent thinks he can get a bigger deal, maybe adding a extra year. I wouldn't bet on it, but wouldn't completely rule it out either. If Kershaw doesn't opt out, he is the third best pitcher in this market and teams will have the money to spend. Braves, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Cardinals, and maybe even the Angels. Why would he? Price still ranks third in salary per year, only Trout and Kershaw earn more. Your looking at 4 years 120 million for a pitcher that had elbow issues and will be 33 years old next year. If you took out the injury issue maybe, but for me that kills his value. If he opts out its not about money, just wanting to play for another team. I hope your right, that would be awesome and really change things long-term. I'm not arguing about the elbow issues, but he was arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season this year. He was one of the biggest reasons why the Sox ran away with the division this year in the second half. I think he cleared up a lot of those questions with that performance this year. Seemed to have no lingering affect. If the agent thinks he can get a 5th year and more guaranteed money overall to the contract, then it'll be justified for a opt out.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 21:52:07 GMT -5
Offer Eovaldi a 3/45. Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Eovaldi as the starters. at this rate...you really think that will be enough to keep eovaldi???
keep in mind rich hill got 3/48 at age 37 with similar injury history I see the three " " and assume you feel it will take way more???
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Post by marrcus on Oct 20, 2018 21:53:16 GMT -5
I just see cashman getting word to Eovaldi's agent --now-- that whatever he's offered they will they will better-deal him in the bronx.
Not optimistic. cashman really blundered with the RS/Ellsbury signing but I would think he's ready to go again with a zero sum game addition to his staff.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 21:55:02 GMT -5
If Price does opt out we kind of have to be more aggressive in the starting pitching market, right? Is anyone comfortable with: Sale Porcello Rodriguez Johnson Wright? That could be a good rotation, it could also be pretty bad, injured, and without depth. If Price opts out, I would fully expect the Sox to be all in on Eovaldi. The Porcello trade talks would die too. The Sox would need him in this case. Even with Price there really is no "Porcello trade talks", just a few fans saying stuff....
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 21:57:35 GMT -5
If Price opts out, I would fully expect the Sox to be all in on Eovaldi. The Porcello trade talks would die too. The Sox would need him in this case. Even with Price there really is no "Porcello trade talks", just a few fans saying stuff.... Yeah that's true, but if you keep Porcello, and you don't extend anyone now, you risk losing Sale and Xander to free agency the following year. There's good reasons why it's being discussed a ton. It's a very realistic possibility if Price stays.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 22:00:49 GMT -5
As I said, Porcello might not be the one traded. He is counted on and dependable with zero injury history... why on earth would we even dicuss trading him? He is our only SP without injury risk... we need him more than some fans think.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 22:06:28 GMT -5
As I said, Porcello might not be the one traded. He is counted on and dependable with zero injury history... why on earth would we even dicuss trading him? Unless the Sox go way over again (which they might and should), then the Sox will probably need to sacrifice salary relief somewhere. You're probably a worse team without him, yeap, but you're looking at 250 million dollar team with one or 2 free agent signings ontop of everyone if you kept everyone. Porcello just has the easiest contract to move on this team outside of the young cost controlled guys and Sale.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 22:21:21 GMT -5
As I said, Porcello might not be the one traded. He is counted on and dependable with zero injury history... why on earth would we even dicuss trading him? Unless the Sox go way over again (which they might and should), then the Sox will probably need to sacrifice salary relief somewhere. You're probably a worse team without him, yeap, but you're looking at 250 million dollar team with one or 2 free agent signings ontop of everyone if you kept everyone. Porcello just has the easiest contract to move on this team outside of the young cost controlled guys and Sale. He is just too valuable to lose. How do we replace him?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 22:26:41 GMT -5
Unless the Sox go way over again (which they might and should), then the Sox will probably need to sacrifice salary relief somewhere. You're probably a worse team without him, yeap, but you're looking at 250 million dollar team with one or 2 free agent signings ontop of everyone if you kept everyone. Porcello just has the easiest contract to move on this team outside of the young cost controlled guys and Sale. He is just too valuable to lose. How do we replace him? Eovaldi signing and in house with Johnson, Wright, and Velazquez.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 20, 2018 22:32:48 GMT -5
Unless the Sox go way over again (which they might and should), then the Sox will probably need to sacrifice salary relief somewhere. You're probably a worse team without him, yeap, but you're looking at 250 million dollar team with one or 2 free agent signings ontop of everyone if you kept everyone. Porcello just has the easiest contract to move on this team outside of the young cost controlled guys and Sale. He is just too valuable to lose. How do we replace him? I'm with you. No way imo the SOx should replace Porcello. Too many other pitchers have arm questions. We've got to keep him.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 22:33:14 GMT -5
None of them provide what Porcello does. Maybe Eovaldi.
I think we need Eovaldi and Porcello honestly.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 22:35:02 GMT -5
He is just too valuable to lose. How do we replace him? I'm with you. No way imo the SOx should replace Porcello. Too many other pitchers have arm questions. We've got to keep him. Right, we need more Porcello's....
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2018 23:05:15 GMT -5
Why would he? Price still ranks third in salary per year, only Trout and Kershaw earn more. Your looking at 4 years 120 million for a pitcher that had elbow issues and will be 33 years old next year. If you took out the injury issue maybe, but for me that kills his value. If he opts out its not about money, just wanting to play for another team. I hope your right, that would be awesome and really change things long-term. I'm not arguing about the elbow issues, but he was arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season this year. He was one of the biggest reasons why the Sox ran away with the division this year in the second half. I think he cleared up a lot of those questions with that performance this year. Seemed to have no lingering affect. If the agent thinks he can get a 5th year and more guaranteed money overall to the contract, then it'll be justified for a opt out. Well his agent would only think that if teams expressed interested by way of back channels. He doesn't have Scott Boras as his agent. I just don't see how his agent thinks its a 30% chance he can get 5 years and a good amount over 120 million. He's not risking it for a few million for example. So your talking about making him one of the top paid players in the game per year. All that because he had a good 11 game run for the first time in three years? Then made only one good start out of three in the post season. A guy that made 30 starts, but only 176 innings. Nevermind Price laughed when asked about that recently, saying why would I do that? I'll never say never, so 1% sounds about right. You don't worry about it at all, if it happens its like you won the lottery!
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Post by Guidas on Oct 21, 2018 8:48:42 GMT -5
MovesBuy: Eovaldi Corbin* Lowrie (only if they can get him on a 2 yr deal with a team option for 3rd year). Delete Nuñez. Pearce Lots of moving parts in the pitching area. Sale, Price, Erod and Wright have all spent real time on DL so I believe Sox need 2, #2 or better starters. I also believe if Sale has shoulder issues of any kind they let him walk next year. To that end - *If Sale's shoulder turns out to need surgery I would either buy Corbin too or - and I don't want to do this but - try to trade Devers for a high level pitcher to a team craving offense and control. My two main targets would be Snell or Nola - not sure the Phillies would bite at that but Tampa might. This lets you get some reset $$$ while not limiting quality. It will mandate getting Donaldson on a 1 year "pillow" deal if possible or relegate Lowrie to 3rd and spelling him with Holt or Lin (Delete Nuñez) until Chavis or Dalbec can seize the position. With Eovaldi and and the trade you don't need to trade Porcello for an MLB ready or near ready prospect in a position of need, but you could and even have that position of need be a starter. Acquiring Corbin could require you to trade Porcello to reduce salary. One of Vazquez and Swihart need to be traded, too. I would trade Vazquez and make Swihart the starter. Brasier becomes the closer. Lakins and Hernandez go into the pen (unless Sox genuinely believe Hernandez will be more than a #5/4 starter). Feltman comes up in June or so. I would also spend some cash - but not closer cash - on a 7th/8th inning guy. If Pedroia is broken/retires, Lowrie/Holt fill that role (and I would try to get Chavis AAA reps at 2nd just to see). Salary Relief 2019Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Kelly, Nuñez, Hanley all off the books. $50.25MIf Vazquez is traded add $2.85M. If Pedroia retires (unlikely but given that surgery (see Wright, David) possible) - add another $15.12M Challenges - other than the ratty state of the pitching staff's health, JD opting out after 2019 season. I renegotiate now and give him an extra 5 Mil a year guaranteed. With arb and the free agent list I have above - if you buy Eovaldi AND Corbin - payroll will likely go up with these deletions. But if you add Corbin or trade Devers for a pre-arb stud, you can delete Porcello and maybe reset this year. But I prefer to buy, and 2020 tells you why. Salary Relief 2020 This becomes your reset year. Basically: Sale (unless his shoulder is pristine, otherwise you gotta let him walk), Porcello, Panda all off the books. That alone leaves you with: $61.625MOrg also picks up $14.27M for letting Castillo walk - doesn't count against your LuxTax ave, but hey, it's cash you can bank into 2021. Challenges - Resigning Xander (I would do that; cost approx. 5yrs X $20M a year); Finding 1st baseman (internal/trade). Mookie one year from Free Agency. I believe Mookie is going to the highest bidder. I am not sure that will be Boston. I don't think they will get pre-emptive and offer him what Machado/Harper get, which is what his agent will want. Tough call but I think he's gone. If they think so too they can trade him for a bucket of prospects or just take the QO pick. So after 2019, barring a major injury to a star player and a Stanton-like extension for Mookie, the rest of the roster does not require a major upgrade - i.e. nothing more than a couple relievers, a first baseman and maybe a 4/5 starter. So this is your re-set year. Should be about $10M below the tax even with the adds of 2019 and arb. More than that if they had the balls to trade Mookie if they can't extend him. Given what I've seen for numbers, you are going to blow past the luxury tax line signing those 4 guys. What are you expecting them to sign for? Given the top payroll teams reset this year, I don't expect the same offseason. There will be major competition for all four of those guys and it will take big deals to sign them. 7/8 innings guys get paid, gotta be like 10 million for two of them if you want good ones and you would if you are just letting Kimbrel walk and not adding any guys with elite past performance. For example Joe Kelly is like a 5 million a year guy or close to it. Signing Corbin and trading Porcello is most likely going to add money, he was 15th in bwar and last year was almost top 40 the year before. I'd rather just keep Porcello, then giving out another big long-term deal to a pitcher with a Sale contract in the future. Eovaldi 5 years at $17-18M a year Corbin 5 years at 22-25M a year Pearce 2 years at $5M a year Lowrie 2 year at $8M a year. This is why, if you do this and can trade Porcello you are adding roughly $36M. Of course, if you're confident that Sale, Price and Wright won't do more than a single 10 day DL stint each - which I do not - you'll only need 1 starter. I let Kelly walk, too.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 21, 2018 9:43:25 GMT -5
**I'm very interested with many of the infield FA's to see if they can also play 1st, 2b and 3rd. Id like someone who can hit lh pitching. I love what Pearce has done and what he is. But I'm not sure he can sustain next year. But he has been terrific this post season as well as Eovaldi. Pearce and Eovaldi have proven that you don't need a team filled with big names. This is the main reason why I want Daniel Murphy. He's better than both Moreland and Pearce. He also can give a lot of time off to Pedrioa at second base. Moreland will see a lot of time filling in when someone needs a day off (with Pedrioa, it'll happen frequently). Moreland shouldn't be a regular first baseman in a quality lineup imo. Murphy is way better with the bat, making Moreland a great guy for pinch hitting and filling in as a 10th man off the bench. I was thinking of a hitter that can hit lefties. Up until this year Murph definitely could. But this year he was awful vs lefties. I'm not sure I'd want to take the risk on Murph for a few reasons. 1--- I'm not sure he can field any position other than 1st decently. I know he played 2b with Cubs but was he decent there? Thus you have a risk that you have a guy who is really only able to play 1 position. Now I have to rely on someone else to get Nunez off the field too. 2--- Was his lousy hitting vs lefties this year an aberration? Or is it telling of more things to come? If he can't hit lefties then he is "Mitch Moreland." While Pearce this year for the Sox vs lefties was a prime "Mo Vaughn." 3--- I want a replacement for Nunez more than I want a replacement for Moreland. I'm concerned with Murph that he is either a platoon player at this point in his career or can only play one position and his defense is just not that good. And the Sox don't have a DH. Though I get why to choose Murph because of his bat. It's just that when Sox go against lefty and if Murph is more like the 2018 version now we have a lousy 1b when it comes to hitting and we have Nunez at 3rd base. While Devers will be better than this year you still have to wonder and the other bench players are lefties too. 4-- Though with all that said yeah Murph as well as many other are possibilities. Murph with Moreland also gives JD and Betts rest too in that you put Murph at DH vs righties. And if any injuries to either Betts or JDM a lefty that can hit is preferred. I see where you are coming from. Get MM out of the starting lineup as much as possible. I was not a fan of signing Mitch. But then he had that super start - man he was amazing early on. Then he regressed back to what he is. On the flip side, Devers defense is so poor - not sure not having a good defender at 1st rather than a good hitter wouldn't overall be more beneficial to the team especially if you think Devers is really going to hit next year.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 21, 2018 9:58:20 GMT -5
Given what I've seen for numbers, you are going to blow past the luxury tax line signing those 4 guys. What are you expecting them to sign for? Given the top payroll teams reset this year, I don't expect the same offseason. There will be major competition for all four of those guys and it will take big deals to sign them. 7/8 innings guys get paid, gotta be like 10 million for two of them if you want good ones and you would if you are just letting Kimbrel walk and not adding any guys with elite past performance. For example Joe Kelly is like a 5 million a year guy or close to it. Signing Corbin and trading Porcello is most likely going to add money, he was 15th in bwar and last year was almost top 40 the year before. I'd rather just keep Porcello, then giving out another big long-term deal to a pitcher with a Sale contract in the future. Eovaldi 5 years at $17-18M a year Corbin 5 years at 22-25M a year Pearce 2 years at $5M a year Lowrie 2 year at $8M a year. This is why, if you do this and can trade Porcello you are adding roughly $36M. Of course, if you're confident that Sale, Price and Wright won't do more than a single 10 day DL stint each - which I do not - you'll only need 1 starter. I let Kelly walk, too. Noe that the Yanks have reset their cap and their biggest weakness was starting pitching, why would they "allow" the Sox to do this? IMO there is no reason for the Yanks not to go "all in" for Corbin. I can see the Yanks have some reluctance with Eovaldi. Not that much but some. But with Corbin I think Sox have virtually no shot at him combined with the SOx already have 3 lefties. While the lefties is a minor issue we also have to consider other teams that consider they are 1 good quality starting pitcher away can surprise and make a big push for Corbin because he is still relatively young. The combination of these reasons make it in my opinion no chance to get Corbin thus you aren't trading Porcello.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 21, 2018 10:24:04 GMT -5
Given what I've seen for numbers, you are going to blow past the luxury tax line signing those 4 guys. What are you expecting them to sign for? Given the top payroll teams reset this year, I don't expect the same offseason. There will be major competition for all four of those guys and it will take big deals to sign them. 7/8 innings guys get paid, gotta be like 10 million for two of them if you want good ones and you would if you are just letting Kimbrel walk and not adding any guys with elite past performance. For example Joe Kelly is like a 5 million a year guy or close to it. Signing Corbin and trading Porcello is most likely going to add money, he was 15th in bwar and last year was almost top 40 the year before. I'd rather just keep Porcello, then giving out another big long-term deal to a pitcher with a Sale contract in the future. Eovaldi 5 years at $17-18M a year Corbin 5 years at 22-25M a year Pearce 2 years at $5M a year Lowrie 2 year at $8M a year. This is why, if you do this and can trade Porcello you are adding roughly $36M. Of course, if you're confident that Sale, Price and Wright won't do more than a single 10 day DL stint each - which I do not - you'll only need 1 starter. I let Kelly walk, too. And these moves would make it almost impossible to reset the luxury tax ever. This is not realistic and never will be. Even the richest teams in the league have to reset the luxury tax every few seasons because you don't want to be in the position where it costs about $10 million to add some extremely mediocre player like Nunez. Expecting an unlimited budget forever isn't a good starting point for a baseball fan because you're for sure going to be disappointed.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 21, 2018 10:32:01 GMT -5
**I'm very interested with many of the infield FA's to see if they can also play 1st, 2b and 3rd. Id like someone who can hit lh pitching. I love what Pearce has done and what he is. But I'm not sure he can sustain next year. But he has been terrific this post season as well as Eovaldi. Pearce and Eovaldi have proven that you don't need a team filled with big names. This is the main reason why I want Daniel Murphy. He's better than both Moreland and Pearce. He also can give a lot of time off to Pedrioa at second base. Moreland will see a lot of time filling in when someone needs a day off (with Pedrioa, it'll happen frequently). Moreland shouldn't be a regular first baseman in a quality lineup imo. Murphy is way better with the bat, making Moreland a great guy for pinch hitting and filling in as a 10th man off the bench. I take it you expect a pretty big bounce back season for Murphy? Because he was barely better than Moreland this year. I don't think they need yet another LHH when they already have Lin and Holt who can play anywhere in the infield (even though 1B isn't ideal). And from a quick glance at defensive stats, it doesn't even look like Murphy is an improvement over Nunez at 2B. There is also a pretty good chance that Chavis could be up next season at some point which is something to think about. The Red Sox are at the point where the fringe decisions are going to be decided based on saving salary and this is a perfect example. They might spend money on obvious upgrades, but I don't think this one is that obvious.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 21, 2018 11:14:18 GMT -5
Yeah I'm expecting a big bounce back from Murphy this year. He was out earlier in the season and then came back and was still decent with the bat.
He was a 4-5 win player with the bat with zero defensive value or even negative defensive value (which makes his offense even more impressive) the past two years prior to this one. I think he can be a huge upgrade there from Moreland. Moreland would be great off the bench imo.
He's clearly a bat first guy, and a guy who should move to first late in games and a more defensive minded player at second base should come in late with leads.
The Sox should trade Nunez if he opts in, and I have no clue what Chavis even is as a defensive player. Can he play second base? Maybe? Can he play first base? Not ideally? (Because he's so short).
Murphy is a huge upgrade offensively at first base regularly imo. I would want him for two maybe 3 years until the Sox either bring up Dalbec to play third base and move Devers to first base, or figure something else out.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 21, 2018 11:20:38 GMT -5
You might be able to get away with another year out of a Moreland and Pearce platoon, but Pearce is like 36 or 37 next year and he has a hard time staying healthy. He legitimately could fall off a cliff at any moment with the age and injuries. That's pretty old for baseball.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 21, 2018 11:28:40 GMT -5
I pretty much think Chavis is a JD Martinez replacement at DH if anything. Chavis' only value comes with the bat.
By the end of 2019 if JDM has another great year, it might be worthwhile to let him opt out and give the DH position to Chavis if Chavis continues to obliterate the baseball with hard exit velocities.
Edit- You can even hit JDM with the QO by this time and get a draft pick out of him.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 21, 2018 11:29:51 GMT -5
Yeah I'm expecting a big bounce back from Murphy this year. He was out earlier in the season and then came back and was still decent with the bat. He was a 4-5 win player with the bat with zero defensive value or even negative defensive value (which makes his offense even more impressive) the past two years prior to this one. I think he can be a huge upgrade there from Moreland. Moreland would be great off the bench imo. He's clearly a bat first guy, and a guy who should move to first late in games and a more defensive minded player at second base should come in late with leads. The Sox should trade Nunez if he opts in, and I have no clue what Chavis even is as a defensive player. Can he play second base? Maybe? Can he play first base? Not ideally? (Because he's so short). Murphy is a huge upgrade offensively at first base regularly imo. I would want him for two maybe 3 years until the Sox either bring up Dalbec to play third base and move Devers to first base, or figure something else out. We don't need Murphy to play 2B when we have Holt and Lin though. Moving from Moreland to Murhpy isn't a huge obvious upgrade and then they'd also have to figure out how to move Moreland's salary. And if they'd have to include money to trade him, then add that to what Murphy wants for his true price to the Red Sox.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 21, 2018 11:42:54 GMT -5
Yeah I'm expecting a big bounce back from Murphy this year. He was out earlier in the season and then came back and was still decent with the bat. He was a 4-5 win player with the bat with zero defensive value or even negative defensive value (which makes his offense even more impressive) the past two years prior to this one. I think he can be a huge upgrade there from Moreland. Moreland would be great off the bench imo. He's clearly a bat first guy, and a guy who should move to first late in games and a more defensive minded player at second base should come in late with leads. The Sox should trade Nunez if he opts in, and I have no clue what Chavis even is as a defensive player. Can he play second base? Maybe? Can he play first base? Not ideally? (Because he's so short). Murphy is a huge upgrade offensively at first base regularly imo. I would want him for two maybe 3 years until the Sox either bring up Dalbec to play third base and move Devers to first base, or figure something else out. We don't need Murphy to play 2B when we have Holt and Lin though. Moving from Moreland to Murhpy isn't a huge obvious upgrade and then they'd also have to figure out how to move Moreland's salary. And if they'd have to include money to trade him, then add that to what Murphy wants for his true price to the Red Sox. I'll just agree to disagree on the value of Moreland's bat versus Murphy's bat at first base. The difference could be 2-3 wins with the bat there if Murphy is healthy. At least it has been in the past. Lin has one more option year and probably serves as good depth. Holt ideally would be the guy who comes in late in games defensively, moving Murphy to first base or out of the game. Maybe you even trade Holt if you want extra salary relief and a prospect. I think Murphy's bat could be worth the price of admission if you only get him for 2 years. He might be asking for way more than that, he could price himself out from the Sox being interested, especially if there's a ton of interest him around MLB. These are the things we don't know yet and we will find out 4 months from now. I just hope the Sox are interested.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 21, 2018 11:55:06 GMT -5
Just for perspective, Daniel Murphy is only two years younger than Steve Pearce.
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