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2018-19 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by orion09 on Nov 4, 2018 3:11:28 GMT -5
If I were a betting man, I would bet Harper never has another 9+ win season. 50% chance he never has another 7.5+ win season.
And I actually like Harper. At least he has a personality (see: Mike Trout), not to mention one of the coolest swings ever.
But I don't see him as having enough value at his peak to justify the inevitable decline. You CAN NOT pay a player $30M/year for 14 years and have to worry about whether he's going to break 3 WAR (!!!) in his age 26 and 27 seasons.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 4, 2018 5:40:13 GMT -5
He will be underpaid for the first few years of that contract. Then immensely overpaid at the end. If you got Pujols from 26 to 40, you’d have over 62.3 bWAR. 53.8 was in the first seven years. Not that you're equating Harper with Pujols (I get the point you're trying to make about frontloaded value) - Harper is NOT Pujols. Just for fun's sake: BWAR | Pujols | Harper | Machado | Age 21 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 2.3 | Age 22 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 7.1 | Age 23 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 6.9 | Age 24 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 3.4 | Age 25 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 5.7 | Total | 37.7 | 18.6 | 25.4 |
I’m not equating the two. It’s just hard to find current players who were playing at a high level in 2004 to 2006. Pujols peak was insanely good.
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Post by manfred on Nov 4, 2018 11:29:14 GMT -5
Jeez... 14 years? Forget baseball decline... you are paying a guy into his early prostate exams. I mean, anything could happen in a span that long. No way.
The flip side is, who knows what $30 millon will be worth in 2032? Might be league minimum. Or, might be getting paid in fresh water and hoarded tins of Spam.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 4, 2018 21:20:44 GMT -5
From MLBTR:
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2018 3:01:21 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats
Pretty bizarre that the Astros have lost their leader of analytics, director of research and development, and senior technical architect in the span of a month. News reports make it sound like they all just walked away..
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 5, 2018 4:50:59 GMT -5
From MLBTR: The Sox won the World Series, so no regrets at all from last year. The Nationals screwed up soooo badly however. Say they are really interested in Kimbrel, now they have to give up 2 picks and 1 million dollars of international pool. Not only did they pay extra money tax wise in a non playoff season, but now they are going to get a even crappier pick for Harper. They also kept a guy like Herrera at the trade deadline and Karma bit them pretty hard there too. Just a terrible year for a organization up and down the entire process.
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Post by Addam603 on Nov 5, 2018 9:23:08 GMT -5
Nationals signed Trevor Rosenthal to a one year, 7 million dollar deal with incentives that could bring it up to 14 million. Also a conditional second year. Rosenthal was one of the most dominant closers in the game for a few years. He’s coming off Tommy John and didn’t pitch in 2018, but he was throwing high 90s and hitting 100 in a showcase for teams. Maybe he can shore up that shaky Nationals bullpen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2018 10:35:11 GMT -5
Jon Morosi Verified account @jonmorosi
At meetings this week, @mlb GMs expected to consider eliminating trade waivers and moving to a uniform trade deadline, possibly in mid-August. Change would require union approval. @mlbnetwork
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2018 12:54:36 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 5, 2018 13:06:26 GMT -5
Steamer projects 19 year old Vlad Jr. to put up 4.7 fWAR next season. Wow. Guess he'll be up May 1st, or whatever date it is to get an extra year of control.
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Post by Addam603 on Nov 6, 2018 19:26:10 GMT -5
CC is staying with the Yankees on a 1-year, 8 million dollar deal.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 6, 2018 19:39:59 GMT -5
McCullers getting TJ, sucks for the Astros. They have to replace too many guys on that rotation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 7, 2018 1:03:50 GMT -5
McCullers getting TJ, sucks for the Astros. They have to replace too many guys on that rotation. Yeah it sux but I doubt if it's a surprise.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 7, 2018 12:02:19 GMT -5
McCullers getting TJ, sucks for the Astros. They have to replace too many guys on that rotation. Makes resigning Eovaldi that much tougher. Eovaldi is from Texas too. So they have homefield advantage here. I hate to lose him. I love watching Eovaldi slinging it and grunting to the plate.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 7, 2018 14:13:32 GMT -5
McCullers getting TJ, sucks for the Astros. They have to replace too many guys on that rotation. Makes resigning Eovaldi that much tougher. Eovaldi is from Texas too. So they have homefield advantage here. I hate to lose him. I love watching Eovaldi slinging it and grunting to the plate. Which, to me, are arguments in favor of re-signing Eovaldi, who has already expressed a desire to come back as part of this great team, which is understandable. Notes from the GM meetings indicate the Astros are losing Rotation talent and weakening their Pen to compensate. The Indians are willing to trade top talent, and surprisingly the Dodgers are letting Machado walk. The Sox advantage could increase against these playoff teams. On the other hand, Cashman appears to be going all in, signing former Ace CC as #5, being in the mix for Machado, courting Corbin and other top arms for the Rotation. The nyfy seem intent on making themselves better, with the goal of taking the ALE and getting back to the WS in 2019. I know this sounds simplistic, but on a Sox team with few weaknesses, and aspirations of repeating, Eovaldi is a Yankee killer, one who can neutralize some of their offseason moves. I can think of no other player acquisition capable of that. And he would like to stick around. Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson would be a formidable, well rested Rotation.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 7, 2018 14:19:16 GMT -5
Makes resigning Eovaldi that much tougher. Eovaldi is from Texas too. So they have homefield advantage here. I hate to lose him. I love watching Eovaldi slinging it and grunting to the plate. Which, to me, are arguments in favor of re-signing Eovaldi, who has already expressed a desire to come back as part of this great team, which is understandable. Notes from the GM meetings indicate the Astros are losing Rotation talent and weakening their Pen to compensate. The Indians are willing to trade top talent, and surprisingly the Dodgers are letting Machado walk. The Sox advantage could increase against these playoff teams. On the other hand, Cashman appears to be going all in, signing former Ace CC as #5, being in the mix for Machado, courting Corbin and others top arms fornthe Rotation. The nyfy seem intent on making themselves better, with the goal of taking the ALE and getting backntonthe WS in 2019. I know this sounds simplistic, but on a Sox team with few weaknesses, and aspirations of repeating. Eovaldi is a Yankee killer, one who can neitralize some of their offseason moves. I can think of no other player acquisition capable of that. And he would like to stick around. Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson would be a formidable, well rested Rotation. Money talks. You can never predict how a man feels or is perceived to feel about a certain place or what his intentions are. People need to get that "team discount thing" out of their heads when it comes to Eovaldi, Pearce, and Kelly. If they make a fair market value deal compared to the market, maybe that's where the Sox could hold a slight advantage. Then again, Eovaldi could just want to pitch closer to home. No one knows but Eovaldi.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 7, 2018 14:45:38 GMT -5
Which, to me, are arguments in favor of re-signing Eovaldi, who has already expressed a desire to come back as part of this great team, which is understandable. Notes from the GM meetings indicate the Astros are losing Rotation talent and weakening their Pen to compensate. The Indians are willing to trade top talent, and surprisingly the Dodgers are letting Machado walk. The Sox advantage could increase against these playoff teams. On the other hand, Cashman appears to be going all in, signing former Ace CC as #5, being in the mix for Machado, courting Corbin and others top arms fornthe Rotation. The nyfy seem intent on making themselves better, with the goal of taking the ALE and getting backntonthe WS in 2019. I know this sounds simplistic, but on a Sox team with few weaknesses, and aspirations of repeating. Eovaldi is a Yankee killer, one who can neitralize some of their offseason moves. I can think of no other player acquisition capable of that. And he would like to stick around. Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson would be a formidable, well rested Rotation. Money talks. You can never predict how a man feels or is perceived to feel about a certain place or what his intentions are. People need to get that "team discount thing" out of their heads when it comes to Eovaldi, Pearce, and Kelly. If they make a fair market value deal compared to the market, maybe that's where the Sox could hold a slight advantage. Then again, Eovaldi could just want to pitch closer to home. No one knows but Eovaldi. Pedro, I don’t believe I mentioned a home town discount, nor do I think this FO will either lowball or overpay him, or Pearce or Kelly. I do believe players prefer to play for a winner, enjoy the cameraderie of a motivated, happy clubhouse and the support system it provides. Eovaldi spoke glowingly of this, and of his fellow pitchers, of having a top defense behind him, and an offense that provides him lots of runs, and winning the WS with them, and he spoke eloquently of this fan base. He likes it here. Not everyone does. You are absolutely correct that he may prefer going home to Texas or wearing pinstripes. His saying, repeatedly, I leave all that contract stuff to my agent, indicates he also wants to get paid appropriately, as well as be part of this happy, winning environment. My point is, the Sox need him and should pay him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 7, 2018 15:11:59 GMT -5
I don't think the Astros have the revenue needed to go big in free agency. Per Forbes they aren't even in to top ten. It's going up, but I don't know how much they can go above 160 million and they have a ton of holes to fill. This is baseballs biggest problem and why we should spend spend spend. Its our huge advantage.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 7, 2018 15:23:36 GMT -5
Gerry I wasn't saying that you said he would take a hometown discount to stay. It has been implied here on this forum though and I don't see it.
I think Eovaldi loves it here and loves to win and he obviously lays it out all in the line to win. That 18 inning game was a spectacle by him. Can't say enough good things about the guy after that performance.
Give him fair market value and pay him and keep him here. Any advantage over the Yankees you can get against them is a plus.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 7, 2018 15:57:13 GMT -5
nypost.com/2018/11/07/scott-boras-why-a-300-million-bryce-harper-offer-wasnt-close/amp/?__twitter_impression=trueMeanwhile, Harper and Boras just keep piling on why he's going to have zero value soon. “They did not pay anywhere near [Harper’s] $400 million to $500 million in [true value],” Boras said. “This has been great value and is great value.” Yeap. Sure Boras. The guy who's had one HOF type of year so far is a "generational player." He's a great player, but if he gets 400 or even 500 million, then that would be insane. We will see you in February with no decision made yet because baseball free agency of course.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 7, 2018 18:22:23 GMT -5
nypost.com/2018/11/07/scott-boras-why-a-300-million-bryce-harper-offer-wasnt-close/amp/?__twitter_impression=trueMeanwhile, Harper and Boras just keep piling on why he's going to have zero value soon. “They did not pay anywhere near [Harper’s] $400 million to $500 million in [true value],” Boras said. “This has been great value and is great value.” Yeap. Sure Boras. The guy who's had one HOF type of year so far is a "generational player." He's a great player, but if he gets 400 or even 500 million, then that would be insane. We will see you in February with no decision made yet because baseball free agency of course. I wonder if whoever signs him will have their season ruined because they waited too long like what happened to the Red Sox and JDM.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 8, 2018 0:23:29 GMT -5
nypost.com/2018/11/07/scott-boras-why-a-300-million-bryce-harper-offer-wasnt-close/amp/?__twitter_impression=trueMeanwhile, Harper and Boras just keep piling on why he's going to have zero value soon. “They did not pay anywhere near [Harper’s] $400 million to $500 million in [true value],” Boras said. “This has been great value and is great value.” Yeap. Sure Boras. The guy who's had one HOF type of year so far is a "generational player." He's a great player, but if he gets 400 or even 500 million, then that would be insane. We will see you in February with no decision made yet because baseball free agency of course. I wonder if whoever signs him will have their season ruined because they waited too long like what happened to the Red Sox and JDM. It sure was a great season, but what a grueling process as a fan. All because the Sox had to have JDM on their terms. Now they have to deal with one of the most player friendly deals with JDM having a opt out every year until he's a free agent starting next year. He was probably worth a 6 year deal to begin with, with no opt outs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2018 2:46:46 GMT -5
Marc Topkin Verified account @tbtimes_Rays Hearing #Rays-#Mariners deal is bigger than Zunino and Heredia for Mallex Smith. #Rays could also get LHP Michael Plassmeyer (‘18 Draftee) and give up OF prospect Jake Fraley in current version. Deal could be announced Thursday.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2018 8:19:31 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2018 9:02:04 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats Pretty bizarre that the Astros have lost their leader of analytics, director of research and development, and senior technical architect in the span of a month. News reports make it sound like they all just walked away.. JJ Cooper Verified account @jjcoop36 The Astros have lost their hitting coach and assistant hitting coach in the past two weeks. . . . This seems very strange. I wonder if something is coming down about the cheating thing.
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