SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2018-19 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2018 14:44:44 GMT -5
I just have to say it's amazing how posters look at trades other teams make differently than trades we make. The majority of posters love the Paxton trade for the Yankees. I can't help compare it to the Pomeranz trade, where most posters hated the trade. Yea Pomeranz was a little more risky, but the same injury issues are there and we got an extra 1/3 of a season. The Yankees gave up a higher rated pitching prospect, that is basically major league ready instead of a crazy raw guy years away. He was their top prospect. Plus a guy in Swanson who is also major league ready and could be a back of the rotation type starter. Heck even the third piece has a chance to be an everyday player, even if he's likely to be a 4th OF type. He's old for high A ball at 23, but .290 average, good speed, above average D in CF and 17 HRs in 90 games. That's at minimum an interesting player It's definitely easier to be rational when you're not thinking about the prospect going away torturing you for a decade.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 20, 2018 15:04:51 GMT -5
People need to not fool themselves about Paxton. If he's used carefully he can be as good as any pitcher in the AL. This will be on Boone. The temptation is always to ride the horse as long as you can, but that would be a mistake in this case. The goal should be to get him to show in the playoffs. He'll need to be managed carefully to do that.
All this has been said by others here. Put it all together and it's a strong addition to their staff. They just need to keep him strong.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 20, 2018 15:24:59 GMT -5
He might very well not even give the Yankees 200 IP in his 2 years remaining. Saying that as long as he's dominate in October they can live with 100 IP is being a bit hopeful. It's not like you can pick and choose when he gives you a 100 IP. He could be very good for the first 4 months of the season and then get shut down. Did we not just watch the Red Sox do exactly this with Chris Sale? Not that it was necessarily 100% effective, but I promise you, the Yankees are not just going to passively hope that Paxton happens to be healthy in October. They'll do everything they can to engineer that outcome. Chris Sale is a perfect example. They did everything in their power to manage him and get him as strong as possible heading into October and he still broke down. At least Chris Sale has 200 IP seasons under his belt. How do you manage a guy who just beat his career best by 30 IP at 160? If he stays healthy, are they going to proactively keep him down around 140 to account for the extra post-season innings?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2018 15:33:15 GMT -5
Chris Sale had 24 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings in the postseason and a 4.11 ERA against three of the best offenses in the game, and the Red Sox won four of the five games in which he appeared on their way to winning the World Series. That is absolutely the sort of "broke down" the Yankees are praying to get from Paxton.
I'll ask again: What's wrong with having a plan to have a guy be outstanding for 130 innings plus the playoffs? This divide that there are "starting pitchers" who need to throw 180 innings and "relievers" who can only throw 60 innings is crazy and became totally outmoded this year. There are dozens of guys whose peak value lies somewhere in between, and Paxton, like Sale, is one of them.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2018 15:47:00 GMT -5
Let’s put it this way. I’d take Paxton over Eovaldi 100 times out of 100. I’m not sure if people aren’t familiar with him or what, because when he’s on, he’s as unhittable as Sale.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 20, 2018 15:56:04 GMT -5
The Sox were fortunate enough that Sale gutted his way out of what he was going through in the second half. It might be fools gold to hope another pitcher of that mold to do the same.
|
|
orion09
Veteran
Posts: 1,220
Member is Online
|
Post by orion09 on Nov 20, 2018 16:55:08 GMT -5
I feel the Paxton acquisition is a good one, and 4 WAR in 130 innings is still super valuable.
As far as managing his usage: Boone seems like a good manager of people, but I don’t feel he’s on Cora’s level when it comes to strategic thinking, especially in terms of evaluating lots of information from players, analytics, etc.
While managing a pitcher’s workload isn’t rocket science, and while Boone will presumably have help from his analytics department, my sense is that Cora is just more skilled and more confident at making these decisions.
Hopefully that translates to an edge for the Sox when it comes to Boone’s management of Paxton.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2018 17:05:03 GMT -5
Is Paxton prone to injuries or wearing down? One of those can be managed.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2018 17:27:20 GMT -5
Well I'd say Eovaldi is crazy unhittable when he's on, heck a ton of pitchers can look like Chris sale when they are on. ERod looks darn near elite when he's on. Some people might be down playing Paxton, but comparing him to Sale is about the opposite. He had good size splits at Home last year, moving to the AL East won't help those. He's a good pitcher, just made them better, but he's not close to Sale. For me the issue isn't if Paxton is good, its was he the best option and the price was rather high.
I love it, instead of using their mighty financial power, they keep dipping into that farm to acquire cost controlled players. They have given up a ton of players in the Gray, Roberston, Britton and now Paxton trade. Yankees on a budget doesn't scare me. Them spending huge and have the great farm system did.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2018 17:34:25 GMT -5
Paxton's K/BB was higher than Severino, Greinke, Cole, Strasburg, Bueler and Syndergaard last year. And he wasn't far behind Kershaw, Carrasco, Corbin and deGrom.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2018 17:48:39 GMT -5
Sixth in the majors in K%-BB% among guys over 100 innings. Tied for sixth in FIP-.
The health concerns are real, but the "he's not really that good argument" is wishful thinking. He has a K rate over 30% since the start of last year. He give ace-quality pitching in something less than the number of innings you'd like out of a frontline pitcher, which leads to him being closer to a #2 value-wise.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2018 18:03:29 GMT -5
Sale .861 WHIP 6.97 SO/W home .202 .271 .296 .567 away .166 .223 .283 .506
Paxton 1.098 WHIP 4.96 SO/W home .210 .254 .356 .609 away .240 .299 .420 .719
Edit; Both ERod and Porcello had better away numbers .678 and .693 OPS than Paxton even when a lot of those away games were smaller AL East parks and not the bigger AL West Parks. Pitching a ton of games in Yankee Stadium and then places like Fenway isn't going to help him.
Interesting Price was the opposite, better at Fenway and Eovaldi is too crazy because half his home games were the Tropicana other half Fenway nevermind the limited innings.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 20, 2018 18:17:08 GMT -5
Chris Sale had 24 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings in the postseason and a 4.11 ERA against three of the best offenses in the game, and the Red Sox won four of the five games in which he appeared on their way to winning the World Series. That is absolutely the sort of "broke down" the Yankees are praying to get from Paxton. I'll ask again: What's wrong with having a plan to have a guy be outstanding for 130 innings plus the playoffs? This divide that there are "starting pitchers" who need to throw 180 innings and "relievers" who can only throw 60 innings is crazy and became totally outmoded this year. There are dozens of guys whose peak value lies somewhere in between, and Paxton, like Sale, is one of them. Because 4.11 ERA is great for someone like Eduardo Rodriguez or Rick Porcello. It's not what you got Chris Sale for. Chris Sale was also electric out of the pen. If you take away those 2.0 IP it doesn't look as pretty. It's also hard to quibble over small sample sizes, but he didn't look right and his performances were getting progressively worse. ALDS 1 start 1 RP 2.84 ALCS 1 start 0 RP 4.50 WS 1 start 1 RP 5.40
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2018 18:37:58 GMT -5
Chris Sale was also electric out of the pen. If you take away those 2.0 IP it doesn't look as pretty. Yeah, so since my point is that all of the innings count and that the starter vs. reliever construction is outmoded, the electric innings out of the pen count just like the innings where he was trying to pace himself in the rotation. Also, for whatever it's worth, 100% of the runners he bequeathed in the playoffs ended up scoring. If you're going to dismiss a 37.5% K rate over 15 1/3 innings because his ERA was 4.11, that's your prerogative, but Sale was a big reason the Red Sox were World Series Champions. Sale .861 WHIP 6.97 SO/W home .202 .271 .296 .567 away .166 .223 .283 .506 Paxton 1.098 WHIP 4.96 SO/W home .210 .254 .356 .609 away .240 .299 .420 .719 Edit; Both ERod and Porcello had better away numbers .678 and .693 OPS than Paxton even when a lot of those away games were smaller AL East parks and not the bigger AL West Parks. Pitching a ton of games in Yankee Stadium and then places like Fenway isn't going to help him. Interesting Price was the opposite, better at Fenway and Eovaldi is too crazy because half his home games were the Tropicana other half Fenway nevermind the limited innings. Paxton had a .281 BABIP at home and a .322 BABIP on the road, and I don't see any reason for that other than luck. His HR rate was exactly the same at Safeco and away. In 2017, opponents hit .218/.286/.321 off Paxton at Safeco vs .230/.267/.327 on the road. The idea that Paxton's excellence is the product of Safeco's pitcher-friendly environs breaks down pretty quickly if you dig into it at all.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 21, 2018 1:04:15 GMT -5
Let me echo Curtis Mayfield and The Impressions: People get ready, there's a train a comin'...
Paxton will give the Yankees the same stuff a young Sabathia did. He just doesn't have the same durability. But shutdown? That's what he does when he's on. There are dozens of ways to say that. Here's one: he allowed very little hard contact with one of the lowest exit velocities on batted balls at a little over 89 mph. He's difficult to square up at all.
There's plenty more.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Nov 21, 2018 11:16:18 GMT -5
Huge Paxton fan here as well, this was a terrible trade... For us.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Nov 21, 2018 12:51:38 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 21, 2018 13:30:08 GMT -5
Chris Sale was also electric out of the pen. If you take away those 2.0 IP it doesn't look as pretty. Yeah, so since my point is that all of the innings count and that the starter vs. reliever construction is outmoded, the electric innings out of the pen count just like the innings where he was trying to pace himself in the rotation. Sale's main issue was the more he had to throw, the more his stuff declined. They also had to push back starts to try and manage him as much as possible. After having his lowest average fastball velocity, were you confident in his next start should Price have failed? His post-season was a pure guts performance because his shoulder was completely quitting on him. I'm not trying to degrade Sale in anyways, on the contrary, he probably should have been a lot worse. That was remarkable mental fortitude. Assuming Paxton has the same mental makeup, what is the value of an elite 130 IP pitcher who has a 4.00 ERA in October? I would guess that depends on your opinion of Sheffield whether he's a 1/2 or a 3/4. In a lot of ways Paxton feels like a Pomeranz redux. If they win a ring then no matter what he's a success. I don't care about Pablo Sandoval anymore because every domino lead to a ring.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 21, 2018 13:31:21 GMT -5
Paxton played in a division where the park factors were #1, 17, 19, 27, and 28. His home park was #27. He's moving to a division where they are 6, 9, 18, 20, and 23. He hasn't done well at Texas the one hitters park in his divison and the only hitters park he's started a good amount of games. Five career starts .340 .409 .479 .888. His road results last year were mainly the result of good teams hitting or good hitting parks on the road as the Yankees, Texas, Oakland, Houston, and the Angels gave him issues. I will admit that Angels game could be fluky just 5 ABs and two HRs, but that team has some good HR hitters. I'm shocked for as long as he's been around how little data we have due to his limited starts. He's never started a game at Fenway and last year was his first start at Yankee Stadium. 5 innings 7 hits, 3 BB, 4 earned runs and 9 strikeouts.
I'm not saying he's Chris Archer, but he has for sure benefited from his home park and that Division as the Texas number show. His numbers at home are going to rise, that's just Yankee Stadium. Good pitcher, he makes them better, but he won't come close to posting the numbers Chris Sale did at Fenway last year.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 21, 2018 16:20:52 GMT -5
Paxton played in a division where the park factors were #1, 17, 19, 27, and 28. His home park was #27. He's moving to a division where they are 6, 9, 18, 20, and 23. He hasn't done well at Texas the one hitters park in his divison and the only hitters park he's started a good amount of games. Five career starts .340 .409 .479 .888. His road results last year were mainly the result of good teams hitting or good hitting parks on the road as the Yankees, Texas, Oakland, Houston, and the Angels gave him issues. I will admit that Angels game could be fluky just 5 ABs and two HRs, but that team has some good HR hitters. I'm shocked for as long as he's been around how little data we have due to his limited starts. He's never started a game at Fenway and last year was his first start at Yankee Stadium. 5 innings 7 hits, 3 BB, 4 earned runs and 9 strikeouts. I'm not saying he's Chris Archer, but he has for sure benefited from his home park and that Division as the Texas number show. His numbers at home are going to rise, that's just Yankee Stadium. Good pitcher, he makes them better, but he won't come close to posting the numbers Chris Sale did at Fenway last year. Let us know what you have to say when you see him pitch. He's one of the best pitchers in the league when he's pitching. If he was a workhorse that never missed any time, I'd put him in the top 10 pitchers in MLB, maybe top 5. I'm going to guess you haven't watched him much, because he has only pitched 3 games against the Red Sox, all in Seattle so they were probably late games. The guy throws 98 and has peripherals like Carrasco and Verlander.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 21, 2018 17:28:21 GMT -5
Jimed how many times have you seen him pitch? I willing to bet its about the same as me. I've watched video on him, I know exactly who he is. Have for like a decade since he was a prospect. Just because I don't think he's close to Chris Sale isn't a slight against him!
At the sametime after James comments I dug deeper into Paxtons road record because on the surface it does seem to be very good. What I found was he's made like 85% of his starts in pitcher friendly parks. While a very limited sample due to his crazy limited starts his numbers rise in hitter friendly parks, just like most pitchers. This matters because he's going from one of the most pitcher friendly parks to one of the most hitter friendly in the game. Just like with Sale and most Red Sox pitcher, the Yankees top pitchers have a lot higher numbers at home versus the road. He wasn't as good on the road this year because good teams got to him. The AL West was a lot better this year than it has been in a long time, he pitched in Yankee Stadium. I don't see some fluke numbers do to a slighty higher BABIP, when overall his numbers were league average to begin with.
I love strikeouts but Paxton is a poster child for why I hate fwar for pitchers. It focuses so much on strikeouts and the future and not enough on adjusting for parks you play in, nevermind innings. He's much closer to an ERod for me than all the elite guys you keep naming. Next up its going to be Pedro, Clemens and Ryan I guess. That isn't a slight on Paxton, ERod was a top 40 pitcher by bwar last year. He's been so much better at a younger age than Paxton every was. He'll be good, he'll help them a lot, but his numbers are going to rise playing half his game in Yankee Stadium. He's just not Chris Sale,but then again almost no one is. Before he got injured he was having the best season I've seen since prime Pedro seasons.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 21, 2018 18:17:53 GMT -5
Well, if you like bWAR over fWAR, you don't think defense has much to do with pitching results. I think defense has a ton to do with pitching results which is why I like fWAR (even though I don't think that's that great either). Stirkeouts are a huge deal because those outs don't rely on defense or luck. I've said enough about it. Paxton is a great pitcher when he's healthy. We could only dream of ERod being as good as he is.
I started this argument when Paxton was described as a liability for the Yankees. If you don't think the Yankees improved a lot for this season because of this trade, I don't know what to tell you.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 25, 2018 14:46:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2018 14:59:18 GMT -5
The linked article does not say that "just a little bit more" would have gotten Kluber or Bauer. It says that the Yankees talked to the Indians about Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer and that presumably, the Indians could have gotten the Sheffield et al package if they wanted to, but they presumably wanted more. It doesn't say anything about how much more.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 25, 2018 15:02:29 GMT -5
The linked article does not say that "just a little bit more" would have gotten Kluber or Bauer. It says that the Yankees talked to the Indians about Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer and that presumably, the Indians could have gotten the Sheffield et al package if they wanted to, but they presumably wanted more. It doesn't say anything about how much more. That's true, but if I was the Yankees, I would have included more and got one of those guys. The Yankees would have been flat out scary with Bauer or Kluber. Thank you to Cashman really.
|
|
|