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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 21, 2019 16:44:37 GMT -5
So much of Lester's usefulness is tied to his durability, though. I'm not sure there are lessons there that apply to Sale. He's closer compared to Price. Lester really has fallen off a cliff in the last two years. Imagine how much worse it would have been in the AL East. Things worked out perfectly for both Lester and the Red Sox to be honest. I just read that PECOTA predicts the Cubs to win 79 games this year. Ouch.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2019 17:35:05 GMT -5
So much of Lester's usefulness is tied to his durability, though. I'm not sure there are lessons there that apply to Sale. He's closer compared to Price. Lester really has fallen off a cliff in the last two years. Imagine how much worse it would have been in the AL East. Things worked out perfectly for both Lester and the Red Sox to be honest. I just read that PECOTA predicts the Cubs to win 79 games this year. Ouch. Really? Fangraphs has them at 87. Does PECOTA just hate their pitching or what?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 21, 2019 17:55:27 GMT -5
I'm happy they got Price after they spent more than 50 million more than the next team to get him. I just hope Henry learns from his past mistakes with extensions. I'm also not going to assume anything when it comes to John Henry spending. That's all. If Sale isn't signed by opening day because of that payroll manipulation, then I'll be begin to worry that they will lose Sale. Be nice if someone else signed Sale besides the Yankees, but the Yankees are more run like a business. I'm sure business would pick up if they picked up the Sox most dominant pitcher since vintage Pedro in Sale. It'll be one of those things that'll be too good for the Yankees to pass up. Make your team that much better, while making your worst rival that much worse? Also making a ton of money around it because of the storyline of taking the Sox HOF pitcher away from them? Yeap I'd like to avoid that situation altogether. You're just completely ignoring the fact that the Yankees have been cheap for years. It's like the Red Sox and Yankees have swapped places in the last 10 years. The guy who was trying to be too analytical and didn't want to spend more than a player is worth was fired and replaced by a guy who always gets what he wants. The fact that Henry even is saying that they blew it with Lester implies that there is very little chance that they blow it with Sale. Acknowledging a problem is how you fix one. Hank and Hal took over running the team in the late 2000's. They spent over a half a billion on 4 players in Arod, Sabathia, Burnett, and Texeira. They have shown that they are plenty capable of spending money in the past. Hal is on MLB's payroll committee. He just believes in limits to spending in which his dad didn't believe in. The Yankees are run like a business. If a business opportunity like Sale came up and they had a chance to jump on it, they would. I'm not going to convince your opinion on this, but I know they would. That move would gain a ton of publicity and money.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 21, 2019 18:13:29 GMT -5
You're just completely ignoring the fact that the Yankees have been cheap for years. It's like the Red Sox and Yankees have swapped places in the last 10 years. The guy who was trying to be too analytical and didn't want to spend more than a player is worth was fired and replaced by a guy who always gets what he wants. The fact that Henry even is saying that they blew it with Lester implies that there is very little chance that they blow it with Sale. Acknowledging a problem is how you fix one. If a business opportunity like Sale came up and they had a chance to jump on it, they would. I'm not going to convince your opinion on this, but I know they would. That move would gain a ton of publicity and money. You might turn out to be right, but I think you're too confident about this. Everyone was saying the same thing about Machado and Harper not too long ago, and they're both probably better investments on paper than a 31 year old Sale will be.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 21, 2019 18:29:54 GMT -5
You're just completely ignoring the fact that the Yankees have been cheap for years. It's like the Red Sox and Yankees have swapped places in the last 10 years. The guy who was trying to be too analytical and didn't want to spend more than a player is worth was fired and replaced by a guy who always gets what he wants. The fact that Henry even is saying that they blew it with Lester implies that there is very little chance that they blow it with Sale. Acknowledging a problem is how you fix one. Hank and Hal took over running the team in the late 2000's. They spent over a half a billion on 4 players in Arod, Sabathia, Burnett, and Texeira. They have shown that they are plenty capable of spending money in the past. Hal is on MLB's payroll committee. He just believes in limits to spending in which his dad didn't believe in. The Yankees are run like a business. If a business opportunity like Sale came up and they had a chance to jump on it, they would. I'm not going to convince your opinion on this, but I know they would. That move would gain a ton of publicity and money. That's what everyone said about Kershaw, Harper and Machado. They might jump on it, but only at a "reasonable" price.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 21, 2019 18:30:42 GMT -5
He's closer compared to Price. Lester really has fallen off a cliff in the last two years. Imagine how much worse it would have been in the AL East. Things worked out perfectly for both Lester and the Red Sox to be honest. I just read that PECOTA predicts the Cubs to win 79 games this year. Ouch. Really? Fangraphs has them at 87. Does PECOTA just hate their pitching or what? It's more about the NL Central being stacked and the Cubs doing nothing to improve. calltothepen.com/2019/02/20/pecota-right-chicago-cubs-finish-under-500/
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 21, 2019 18:43:27 GMT -5
If a business opportunity like Sale came up and they had a chance to jump on it, they would. I'm not going to convince your opinion on this, but I know they would. That move would gain a ton of publicity and money. You might turn out to be right, but I think you're too confident about this. Everyone was saying the same thing about Machado and Harper not too long ago, and they're both probably better investments on paper than a 31 year old Sale will be. They never felt the need for Machado and Harper. There will be a clear hole in their rotation however with Sabathia retiring. The Yankees came out the first week of the off-season and said "we have too many outfielders." They were also boosting up Andujar's improvement on defense at third base next year. There's a difference between want and need. I think the Yankees never felt they needed Harper or Machado and that's the reason why I don't think they were all in on them.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 21, 2019 18:46:50 GMT -5
So much of Lester's usefulness is tied to his durability, though. I'm not sure there are lessons there that apply to Sale. I know the perception right now isn't great with Sale coming off of a shoulder injury, but he does have 200 innings 4 out of the last 5 years. He will probably need to be managed in his 30's the same way Pedro was, but he seems like a pretty durable guy. I'd trust him to stay healthy over Bumgardner for example, who is going to be another guy that will be a free agent next year.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 21, 2019 19:55:10 GMT -5
So much of Lester's usefulness is tied to his durability, though. I'm not sure there are lessons there that apply to Sale. I know the perception right now isn't great with Sale coming off of a shoulder injury, but he does have 200 innings 4 out of the last 5 years. He will probably need to be managed in his 30's the same way Pedro was, but he seems like a pretty durable guy. I'd trust him to stay healthy over Bumgardner for example, who is going to be another guy that will be a free agent next year. Why? Sale has arm issues. Bum had a fractured hand. I understand Sale's pitching motion is an injury waiting to happen. Anyways - why do you think Sale with arm/shoulder issues is more likely to remain healthy vs Bum? Not arguing.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 21, 2019 20:04:07 GMT -5
I know the perception right now isn't great with Sale coming off of a shoulder injury, but he does have 200 innings 4 out of the last 5 years. He will probably need to be managed in his 30's the same way Pedro was, but he seems like a pretty durable guy. I'd trust him to stay healthy over Bumgardner for example, who is going to be another guy that will be a free agent next year. Why? Sale has arm issues. Bum had a fractured hand. I understand Sale's pitching motion is an injury waiting to happen. Anyways - why do you think Sale with arm/shoulder issues is more likely to remain healthy vs Bum? Not arguing. He has a really good track record and he says the shoulder problems are behind him. He says the shoulder is fine. I guess we will wait and see but I have no reason to not believe him at this point. He's been throwing in spring training.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 21, 2019 20:36:18 GMT -5
Why? Sale has arm issues. Bum had a fractured hand. I understand Sale's pitching motion is an injury waiting to happen. Anyways - why do you think Sale with arm/shoulder issues is more likely to remain healthy vs Bum? Not arguing. He has a really good track record and he says the shoulder problems are behind him. He says the shoulder is fine. I guess we will wait and see but I have no reason to not believe him at this point. He's been throwing in spring training. I have no reason to trust him by the end of the season when he has shown two straight years he either wears down or gets hurt. When he pitches a lot of innings he has shown to wear down even with Chicago. It's not something I can trust. It's more like "I wish I can trust him." But I agree we'll have to wait and see. He is amazing when healthy and rested and definitely worth a huge contract.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 21, 2019 21:44:13 GMT -5
He has a really good track record and he says the shoulder problems are behind him. He says the shoulder is fine. I guess we will wait and see but I have no reason to not believe him at this point. He's been throwing in spring training. I have no reason to trust him by the end of the season when he has shown two straight years he either wears down or gets hurt. When he pitches a lot of innings he has shown to wear down even with Chicago. It's not something I can trust. It's more like "I wish I can trust him." But I agree we'll have to wait and see. He is amazing when healthy and rested and definitely worth a huge contract. Maybe the durability aspect is a crap shoot because injuries are such a crapshoot. Both have logged a lot of innings to this point in their careers. St this point in time, Sale is a better pitcher though. More strikeouts, harder to hit, still has velocity. Give me Sale over Bumgardner anyday.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 21, 2019 22:41:45 GMT -5
Well, Simba’s a FA after 2020 (like Mookie, Trout, DeGrom, etc). I actually think he would be a terrific alternative if they could stop-gap for a year and get him in FA; I think his defense stays excellent for a long time. His hitting is improving as well, to where he’s a good, if not truly dangerous, hitter. I only bring up these thought experiments for exactly this reason...I’m curious how people think the Sox should deal with the crunch, in a realistic (not “sign everyone”) approach. I love the Simba idea, actually, even if my heart wants Bogey around. Teams don’t usually pay as willingly for defense, so the cost might be slightly less, but with their OF defense (especially if JBJ is still around), adding Simmons would really help the staff. What I *really* hope is that they can get guys to take extensions fair to both sides, and preserve the core. There’s enough upside talent in the lower minors that I think they can weather salary issues by the time 2021 rolls around, with some low-cost higher-end talent infusing in. Locking up Mookie, Beni, Bogey, Devers...it’s gonna be tough but fascinating to see play out. I mean, if Eovaldi turns out to be a 1a/2 and ERod starts pushing 1a/2 territory as well...do they still sign Sale? Simmons is a fun player to watch. No doubt he stays at short stop even into his mid 30's. You still got to sign Sale. I don't want him going to the Yankees. The Yankees didn't spend on any big free agents this year and they'll have a clear opening in the rotation with Sabathia retiring. He's your best weapon against the Yankees. He's the best pitcher in the modern era against the Yankees. He's a HOF and his track record either suggests Tommy John surgery by year 5 or keep progressing to HOF status. No way around this Telson, you want a lot of talent in a rotation anyways. Sale is amazing when healthy. He’s a genuine ace, and I only use that tag for 5-8 pitchers in the game at any time. So I like hearing you and Soxjim on either side of this, because I’m torn. My gut says sign him, because I think he’s a near-generational talent. But his shoulder makes me *very* nervous, and I think Gerrit Cole at 2 years younger, might hold up better. But it’s a really tough call. And for anyone, especially a pitcher, $30M+ is SO risky. They’re in a pickle, but it’s a good one to be in, coming off a 119-W season and attempting to repeat as WS champs.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 21, 2019 22:54:31 GMT -5
You might turn out to be right, but I think you're too confident about this. Everyone was saying the same thing about Machado and Harper not too long ago, and they're both probably better investments on paper than a 31 year old Sale will be. They never felt the need for Machado and Harper. There will be a clear hole in their rotation however with Sabathia retiring. The Yankees came out the first week of the off-season and said "we have too many outfielders." They were also boosting up Andujar's improvement on defense at third base next year. There's a difference between want and need. I think the Yankees never felt they needed Harper or Machado and that's the reason why I don't think they were all in on them. I really appreciate your “want” vs “need” distinction here, becauseI think people very often confuse the two. At the same time, I’m not sure Sale qualifies as a “need,” given that they have Severino for 5 years and Paxton at least two. It’s very possible they extend Paxton if he pitches well, since he’d command less than Sale in all likelihood. So while they might “need” a 5th starter, the need is just that: 5th starter and not necessarily an ace. It’s entirely possible they get German or “Johnny Lasagna” going and opt for #3/4 production in that 5 spot while using the $30M AAV for Sale at other spots, or to extend guys like Judge, Sanchez if he comes back, etc. I DO agree that there’s some incentive there to weaken the Sox by subtraction AND power up, but that’s more luxury than “need.” Possibly shrewd luxury, but not truly necessity.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 21, 2019 22:56:05 GMT -5
Also,
Can we just START THE SEASON ALREADY?! The suspense is killing me.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 21, 2019 23:01:47 GMT -5
I have no reason to trust him by the end of the season when he has shown two straight years he either wears down or gets hurt. When he pitches a lot of innings he has shown to wear down even with Chicago. It's not something I can trust. It's more like "I wish I can trust him." But I agree we'll have to wait and see. He is amazing when healthy and rested and definitely worth a huge contract. Maybe the durability aspect is a crap shoot because injuries are such a crapshoot. Both have logged a lot of innings to this point in their careers. St this point in time, Sale is a better pitcher though. More strikeouts, harder to hit, still has velocity. Give me Sale over Bumgardner anyday. I'll take Bum. What isn't a crapshoot is that every year Sale fades. And I recall on here it was cited his pitching motion lends itself to arm'shoulder injury. With that said. I'm damn glad to have Sale and can't wait to watch him pitch. Am hopeful he can be strong at the end of the year. I think Bum will be a lot like Verlander with a new change of scenery on a top team. IfSale can be healthy and not fade like he's done then I'd re-think.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 22, 2019 0:09:58 GMT -5
I know this is nitpicking, but I could not get past this: No it isn't a computer either. It's an application programmed on a computer. If Zips was also programmed onto the machine that would not make that machine Zips. Small stuff but I'm sorry, it stops me in my tracks. Why should I read the rest of it? If the writer can't get that straight, what else fell through the cracks?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 22, 2019 0:14:27 GMT -5
They never felt the need for Machado and Harper. There will be a clear hole in their rotation however with Sabathia retiring. The Yankees came out the first week of the off-season and said "we have too many outfielders." They were also boosting up Andujar's improvement on defense at third base next year. There's a difference between want and need. I think the Yankees never felt they needed Harper or Machado and that's the reason why I don't think they were all in on them. I really appreciate your “want” vs “need” distinction here, becauseI think people very often confuse the two. At the same time, I’m not sure Sale qualifies as a “need,” given that they have Severino for 5 years and Paxton at least two. It’s very possible they extend Paxton if he pitches well, since he’d command less than Sale in all likelihood. So while they might “need” a 5th starter, the need is just that: 5th starter and not necessarily an ace. It’s entirely possible they get German or “Johnny Lasagna” going and opt for #3/4 production in that 5 spot while using the $30M AAV for Sale at other spots, or to extend guys like Judge, Sanchez if he comes back, etc. I DO agree that there’s some incentive there to weaken the Sox by subtraction AND power up, but that’s more luxury than “need.” Possibly shrewd luxury, but not truly necessity. Yeah I mean they could go the usual 5th starter route, but I highly doubt it. If I'm the Yankees, the last guy I'm paying is Paxton. You hate Sale's durability history and questionable health in the future? Lol take a look at this guy's track record. Two years and I'm out on Paxton if I'm the Yankees, unless he takes a lot less money to stay on a shorter term deal. Better to have more talent in a rotation. German will have options in case someone gets hurt.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 22, 2019 7:13:50 GMT -5
I know this is nitpicking, but I could not get past this: No it isn't a computer either. It's an application programmed on a computer. If Zips was also programmed onto the machine that would not make that machine Zips. Small stuff but I'm sorry, it stops me in my tracks. Why should I read the rest of it? If the writer can't get that straight, what else fell through the cracks? PECOTA is a land of contrasts.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2019 9:05:57 GMT -5
I know this is nitpicking, but I could not get past this: No it isn't a computer either. It's an application programmed on a computer. If Zips was also programmed onto the machine that would not make that machine Zips. Small stuff but I'm sorry, it stops me in my tracks. Why should I read the rest of it? If the writer can't get that straight, what else fell through the cracks? The intent of the comment is pretty clear whether the term “computer” or “application” is used. The word computer is used this way a lot. Like playing Madden single player people say they are playing the computer. No they aren’t, they are playing an application programmed onto a computer...
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2019 9:27:31 GMT -5
As someone who gets needlessly angry about people writing "Rule 'V' draft" or misusing the term literally, I am 100% here in support of Norm's "THAT'S NOT A COMPUTER" pet peeve.
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Post by huskies15 on Feb 22, 2019 9:30:41 GMT -5
Bumgarner isn't in Sale's class, and frankly is overrated due to his post-season accolades. His highest fWAR was 5.2 in 2015. Sale has 4 seasons as good or better including 7.7 and 6.5 the last two seasons. Not to mention Bumgarner has only thrown about 240 innings the last two years combined.
If you're paying an over 30 lefty, Sale is your man (and Price too I guess).
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2019 9:53:53 GMT -5
I know this is nitpicking, but I could not get past this: No it isn't a computer either. It's an application programmed on a computer. If Zips was also programmed onto the machine that would not make that machine Zips. Small stuff but I'm sorry, it stops me in my tracks. Why should I read the rest of it? If the writer can't get that straight, what else fell through the cracks? The point is that the "computer" doesn't just hate the Cubs and is picking on them for that reason. It's a formula and that's what it came up with, without using any emotional bias since "computers" are not emotional. I can almost hear Cubs fans complaining about how PECOTA has it out for them and that comment addressed those fans.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 22, 2019 10:05:02 GMT -5
I've gotta ask. Why does anybody really care what PECOTA projects? What difference does it make? There are way too many variables in baseball that can't be predicted for it too be taken too seriously. I mean should a Cubs fan's season be ruined because PECOTA doesn't come up with huge projections for them?
Just because PECOTA is spitting out 79 wins doesn't mean that the Cubs are destined for 79 wins. It's just a projection system. We all have our own internal projection systems and who knows if they're more accurate or less accurate than the automated projecting systems?
Jeez, I'm starting to sound like Cafardo - railing against computers (or more accurately the computer programs), but projections are just projections. Makes it more fun when a team beats its projections as if it really matters at the end of the day.
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Post by kbtoys on Feb 22, 2019 10:34:36 GMT -5
I know this is nitpicking, but I could not get past this: No it isn't a computer either. It's an application programmed on a computer. If Zips was also programmed onto the machine that would not make that machine Zips. Small stuff but I'm sorry, it stops me in my tracks. Why should I read the rest of it? If the writer can't get that straight, what else fell through the cracks? The point is that the "computer" doesn't just hate the Cubs and is picking on them for that reason. It's a formula and that's what it came up with, without using any emotional bias since "computers" are not emotional. I can almost hear Cubs fans complaining about how PECOTA has it out for them and that comment addressed those fans. To be even more nitpicky, the algorithm was created by people who have emotions and bias, so there is some inherent bias in it. This isn't to say there's bias for or against particular teams or players, but it's disingenuous to say there's no bias. It's just bias towards what the creators of the algorithm deemed important or not, whether that be the weight of a certain statistic, or whatever else they might factor in.
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