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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 22, 2019 10:38:45 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2019 10:42:45 GMT -5
The point is that the "computer" doesn't just hate the Cubs and is picking on them for that reason. It's a formula and that's what it came up with, without using any emotional bias since "computers" are not emotional. I can almost hear Cubs fans complaining about how PECOTA has it out for them and that comment addressed those fans. To be even more nitpicky, the algorithm was created by people who have emotions and bias, so there is some inherent bias in it. This isn't to say there's bias for or against particular teams or players, but it's disingenuous to say there's no bias. It's just bias towards what the creators of the algorithm deemed important or not, whether that be the weight of a certain statistic, or whatever else they might factor in. Do you really think they look to change the algorithm so that it "screws over" teams that they don't like? I'm really skeptical. It might discount what some teams do or did not do, but I don't see how it could be done in an emotional way. I only brought up emotional bias, not all bias. Also, welcome to the board!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 22, 2019 13:01:04 GMT -5
I've gotta ask. Why does anybody really care what PECOTA projects? What difference does it make? There are way too many variables in baseball that can't be predicted for it too be taken too seriously. I mean should a Cubs fan's season be ruined because PECOTA doesn't come up with huge projections for them? Just because PECOTA is spitting out 79 wins doesn't mean that the Cubs are destined for 79 wins. It's just a projection system. We all have our own internal projection systems and who knows if they're more accurate or less accurate than the automated projecting systems? Everyone who’s evaluated them retrospectively.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 22, 2019 13:11:23 GMT -5
The point is that the "computer" doesn't just hate the Cubs and is picking on them for that reason. It's a formula and that's what it came up with, without using any emotional bias since "computers" are not emotional. I can almost hear Cubs fans complaining about how PECOTA has it out for them and that comment addressed those fans. To be even more nitpicky, the algorithm was created by people who have emotions and bias, so there is some inherent bias in it. This isn't to say there's bias for or against particular teams or players, but it's disingenuous to say there's no bias. It's just bias towards what the creators of the algorithm deemed important or not, whether that be the weight of a certain statistic, or whatever else they might factor in. It doesn't work that way. The array of data available speak for themselves. The goal is to write an algorithm that projects backwards on the assumption it can be used to predict going forward. The hunt for ways to do that is constant and it has nothing to do with introducing your bias into the programming. The data alone tell you if your on the right track. Having multiple estimators from different sources means that any attempt to pick and choose to favor one team or player, or another, will be shot down and very quickly. If you mean that different techniques might be employed on the same data, that's a very different matter. That has to do with familiarity and training, and yes that might be a matter of personal choice. To give an example, player evaluations based on either OPS+ or wRC+ might seem to be a matter of, as you say, bias. Turns out that for Mookie Betts' time in the majors, the correlation between those two is .997. They are for all practical computing purposes, the same statistic. What that means is that coming at the evaluation from different angles, the developers of those stats arrived at what looks like the same number. That suits my definition of scientific replication just fine. They arrived at an impartial estimate of player value regardless of who designed the algorithm.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 22, 2019 14:04:15 GMT -5
I've gotta ask. Why does anybody really care what PECOTA projects? What difference does it make? There are way too many variables in baseball that can't be predicted for it too be taken too seriously. I mean should a Cubs fan's season be ruined because PECOTA doesn't come up with huge projections for them? Just because PECOTA is spitting out 79 wins doesn't mean that the Cubs are destined for 79 wins. It's just a projection system. We all have our own internal projection systems and who knows if they're more accurate or less accurate than the automated projecting systems? Everyone who’s evaluated them retrospectively. So you've or somebody else has surveyed everybody who does their own personal predictions to see if the computer programmed evaluations are more accurate than your own internal projections or my own internal projections or everybody else's own individual unshared internal projections? How would that even be knowable?
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2019 18:08:20 GMT -5
Everyone who’s evaluated them retrospectively. So you've or somebody else has surveyed everybody who does their own personal predictions to see if the computer programmed evaluations are more accurate than your own internal projections or my own internal projections or everybody else's own individual unshared internal projections? How would that even be knowable? I think he’s speaking extremporaneously. About casual “prediction” as in a person going into a season thinks “Hey, the Brewers just got Cain and Yelich, they might win 90 games this year, although the division’s tough.” And after the season “I knew it! Didn’t think they’d be that good tho...” On some level we all predict teams’ results, and the more familiar we are with team, players, personalities, payroll, FO tendencies, etc (ie the more extensive our data set, and the more variables we can address) the better our projections. Somewhere last spring I made a few predictions about the Sox (W, offensive production and HR totals in particular) that I put on the board. I gave a rationale (how my “system” weights data), and I can evaluate my personal projections retrospectively and judge the accuracy of “my” system, so to say.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 26, 2019 12:06:24 GMT -5
Everyone who’s evaluated them retrospectively. So you've or somebody else has surveyed everybody who does their own personal predictions to see if the computer programmed evaluations are more accurate than your own internal projections or my own internal projections or everybody else's own individual unshared internal projections? How would that even be knowable? Give me a detailed projection for every player in major league baseball and I'll let you know how you did at the end of the season. It's not a question of projections being better or worse than humans. The whole point is that projections are doing something that humans simply aren't capable of. It's like saying, how do you know there isn't someone out there who can drive nails better with their fists than with a hammer? And to continue the analogy, there's a lot more to building a house than owning a hammer. But if you're going to build one, you should for sure own at least one hammer. If you're going to try to win a World Series or just your fantasy league, you need to do more than just go by the projections, but that's where you start.
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Post by huskies15 on Feb 26, 2019 13:23:35 GMT -5
Arenado and Machado as data points, makes the framework of a Betts extension more clear. Just a matter of how many years, but the AAV should be around the $32-35m range. Optimistic that they can get something done now.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2019 13:25:54 GMT -5
Arenado and Machado as data points, makes the framework of a Betts extension more clear. Just a matter of how many years, but the AAV should be around the $32-35m range. Optimistic that they can get something done now. I don't really think it's that clear. Mookie just had a season where he had 4 more WAR than Arenado and Machado ever had.
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Post by huskies15 on Feb 26, 2019 14:36:36 GMT -5
True but one guy was a true UFA and he didn't break $30m AAV over 10 years as a 26 yo with 6+ fWAR 3 out of the last 4 years, and 30 fWAR in his career (about the same as Betts). Mookie will be 28 when he's a FA, same as Arenado would have been, so I think the picture is far clearer based on these two deals.
While he's the better player, both of these deals start to paint the picture of what an extension could look like due to the open market for Machado and the age similarities with Arenado.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 26, 2019 14:45:02 GMT -5
True but one guy was a true UFA and he didn't break $30m AAV over 10 years as a 26 yo with 6+ fWAR 3 out of the last 4 years, and 30 fWAR in his career (about the same as Betts). Mookie will be 28 when he's a FA, same as Arenado would have been, so I think the picture is far clearer based on these two deals. While he's the better player, both of these deals start to paint the picture of what an extension could look like due to the open market for Machado and the age similarities with Arenado. That might be right if Mookie comes back down to earth a little bit this year. If he plays like he did last year, though, he's in a totally different tier than those guys, and I don't think we have any good benchmarks.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 26, 2019 17:46:23 GMT -5
Arenado and Machado as data points, makes the framework of a Betts extension more clear. Just a matter of how many years, but the AAV should be around the $32-35m range. Optimistic that they can get something done now. May make Xander’s more clear than Mookie.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 26, 2019 21:41:19 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts.
I really hope the Sox find a way to keep Bogaerts, Sale, and Betts while hanging onto JDM. Henry indicated that signing all 3 of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts was unlikely, and in the pecking order Bogaerts is probably the 3rd toughest of the 3 to replace - particularly if Sale is reasonably healthy.
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 26, 2019 22:09:15 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts. I really hope the Sox find a way to keep Bogaerts, Sale, and Betts while hanging onto JDM. Henry indicated that signing all 3 of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts was unlikely, and in the pecking order Bogaerts is probably the 3rd toughest of the 3 to replace - particularly if Sale is reasonably healthy. Meh, I mean sure, they might go after Xander, but SS is certainly not a current position of weakness for them. I guess they could go at 3B, but Xander seems to really want to play SS. I do think Xander is the most likely of those four to not resign with Boston. I also think at some point, we have to stop thinking every top tier FA is going to NY. Sure, at some point they will sign a top tier FA, but it's also worth an acknowledgement that it appears that they struck out on Machado and Harper, and when people then said they would get Arenado, he signed a massive extension there.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 26, 2019 23:17:14 GMT -5
It seems to me Bogaerts is the odd man out for the Sox to attempt keeping among the 3 of Betts/Sale and Bogaerts. How they can fit 2 more than likely additional 30m AAV salaries, then a Bogarts one at probably 20-25m in the payroll dooms any chance at retain JD Martinez over the next several seasons and I don't see Dombrowski going that way.
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 27, 2019 2:01:40 GMT -5
Such a crapshoot, no matter what. Still haven't come up with an accurate model for predicting stock performance on the exchanges after all these years, despite the billions of dollars, or more, spent on trying to forecast stock prices. Article has PECOTA badly missing Red Sox' directional trend in '18, while B-R accurately predicts upward trend for Sox. B-R had Baltimore finishing at .500, and Tampa Bay having an abysmal season, finishing 32 games under .500, while PECOTA was much, much more accurate with it's predictions for Baltimore and TB in '18.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Feb 27, 2019 3:11:22 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts. I really hope the Sox find a way to keep Bogaerts, Sale, and Betts while hanging onto JDM. Henry indicated that signing all 3 of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts was unlikely, and in the pecking order Bogaerts is probably the 3rd toughest of the 3 to replace - particularly if Sale is reasonably healthy. This is absurd. Is John Henry going to go broke by extending all three? The Sox have no obvious replacements for any of them in the minors. The Sox have the core of a dynasty that could dominate for several more years. Who would not want to be the owner of a team that did that, especially denying the Yankees, and all their trades and spending? It's a no brainer. John Henry already is the greatest of all Red Sox owners. He's not about to give that up.
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Post by GyIantosca on Feb 27, 2019 7:54:19 GMT -5
Unless you have a completely protected contract Sale would scare me to no end. If ERod finally breaks and takes off he could be the key to that staff. Xander there’s not many SS that have that blend of power and hitting aptitude. The kid from a Colorado is close to signing.
My personal wish is Xander and Betts. Don’t forget JD opting out but he is already at 25 million so the adjustment would not be as drastic. I keep feeling Porcello days are numbered.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 8:57:17 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts. Why? They were barely discussed for Machado so that tells me they don't really want a SS or 3B.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 8:58:34 GMT -5
Such a crapshoot, no matter what. Still haven't come up with an accurate model for predicting stock performance on the exchanges after all these years, despite the billions of dollars, or more, spent on trying to forecast stock prices. Article has PECOTA badly missing Red Sox' directional trend in '18, while B-R accurately predicts upward trend for Sox. B-R had Baltimore finishing at .500, and Tampa Bay having an abysmal season, finishing 32 games under .500, while PECOTA was much, much more accurate with it's predictions for Baltimore and TB in '18. That does not mean that throwing a dart is better at predicting anything. Either look at projections or don't. They aren't hurting anything.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 27, 2019 8:59:36 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts. I really hope the Sox find a way to keep Bogaerts, Sale, and Betts while hanging onto JDM. Henry indicated that signing all 3 of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts was unlikely, and in the pecking order Bogaerts is probably the 3rd toughest of the 3 to replace - particularly if Sale is reasonably healthy. This is absurd. Is John Henry going to go broke by extending all three? The Sox have no obvious replacements for any of them in the minors. The Sox have the core of a dynasty that could dominate for several more years. Who would not want to be the owner of a team that did that, especially denying the Yankees, and all their trades and spending? It's a no brainer. John Henry already is the greatest of all Red Sox owners. He's not about to give that up. Mookie you have no choice on. He’s home grown, young and a top 5 player in the game right now. Xander and Sale could be smart moves to let them walk. Sale we know about the fragility and lack of stamina. I care about the 200 IP but it doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s clearly not the same guy at the end of the year. It’s been a consistent problem and babying him last year didn’t work and if it did work then god help me what he would have been like had they not. Xander of last year is arguably worth 25m a year but that year is kind of an outlier for him. And please don’t quote me his WAR numbers from a couple years ago. I truly don’t care. For him to be worth that money his bat needs to be what it was last year or better. Power and impact.
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 27, 2019 9:11:07 GMT -5
Just saw Cora in an interview and wondered whether or not players wanting to play for him would be a factor in resigning here long term. I have to think it is part of the equation, he has proved himself. Sox are lucky to have him and the players love him.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 27, 2019 9:25:48 GMT -5
Xander of last year is arguably worth 25m a year but that year is kind of an outlier for him. And please don’t quote me his WAR numbers from a couple years ago. I truly don’t care. For him to be worth that money his bat needs to be what it was last year or better. Power and impact. So do you just not believe in defense and base running or...?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 9:46:34 GMT -5
Just saw Cora in an interview and wondered whether or not players wanting to play for him would be a factor in resigning here long term. I have to think it is part of the equation, he has proved himself. Sox are lucky to have him and the players love him. There was a blurb somewhere in the offseason that stated that there were many free agents that called to see if they was interest because of Cora and that had never really happened to that extent before.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 27, 2019 9:59:22 GMT -5
Xander of last year is arguably worth 25m a year but that year is kind of an outlier for him. And please don’t quote me his WAR numbers from a couple years ago. I truly don’t care. For him to be worth that money his bat needs to be what it was last year or better. Power and impact. So do you just not believe in defense and base running or...? I don’t believe it’s worth big money.. also he’s not that good at those things
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