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Devers, Dalbec, and friends: 3B in MLB
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 2, 2019 2:40:24 GMT -5
I got a interesting question for anyone who has seen a lot of Devers and Dalbec defensively (as in both).
Which player is the best defender at third base right now and which player do you see being better at third base 2 years from now?
I think this question might have some ramifications of whether Devers brings a first base glove in the spring training of 2020 (not this year). It's one of the reasons why I also think that Dalbec might not necessarily be a trade chip in the next 2 years. If Devers is still a little shaky at third base after this season then I think the switch to full time first baseman and part time third baseman could be in the cards for Devers long-term.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 2, 2019 9:06:23 GMT -5
I got a interesting question for anyone who has seen a lot of Devers and Dalbec defensively (as in both). Which player is the best defender at third base right now and which player do you see being better at third base 2 years from now? I think this question might have some ramifications of whether Devers brings a first base glove in the spring training of 2020 (not this year). It's one of the reasons why I also think that Dalbec might not necessarily be a trade chip in the next 2 years. If Devers is still a little shaky at third base after this season then I think the switch to full time first baseman and part time third baseman could be in the cards for Devers long-term. Changing anything for Devers with Dalbec in mind would be foolish at this point. I wouldn't count on Dalbec for anything at this point, at least until he can improve his contact skills. (Maybe he could use a new pair of contacts?)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 3, 2019 8:53:15 GMT -5
Made a new thread. I think we'll be talking about this a lot this year.
Dalbec is probably the better defender, but he's nowhere near a certainty to even play in the majors, never mind move Devers over to first. There's such a wide delta in his potential outcomes that I feel comfortable putting "multiple-time All-Star," "breaks Mike Hessman's AAA HR record," and "future MLB relief pitcher" on that spectrum, which is kind of crazy for a college hitter who has made it to AA already.
At this point, Devers should continue working with Febles at third. He has the tools to be solid there. Remember, Devers is a year and a half YOUNGER than Dalbec - if we're going to credit Dalbec for his defensive improvement at age 23, we should probably let Devers turn 23 before we're moving him. If Dalbec continues raking, he might become trade bait. He's got all the hallmarks of the guys Dombrowski has moved: peak of his value, position they're deep at in MLB, position they're deep at in the system.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 3, 2019 10:24:03 GMT -5
It was stated last year at some point that Chavis made some strides at 3B defensively, so I don't even know if we're talking about the right prospect. I completely agree with Chris that the variability of Dalbec's outcomes make it so hard to predict. I personally feel he'll be like a Joey Gallo with less power, which isn't that great and if he does build on last season, I see DDo selling high on him. Chavis seems much more likely to be an MLB contributor, which is why he's in the top 100 and Dalbec isn't.
Also, I really hesitate to move Devers anywhere for anyone in the system. He's the future All-Star of the bunch.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 3, 2019 11:43:31 GMT -5
Isn't there a outcome where you see all 3 of Dalbec, Devers, and Chavis stay and play for minimum slaries in 2020 or 2021?
To me, it's possible. Chavis seems like a future DH and part time position player, especially with his durability issues.
Devers is a shaky defender even before he's filling out. He's not very good at the glove to ball in his hand transfer (which is why he was working with Pedrioa a lot last year, who is one of the best I have ever seen do it). His footwork also leads to a lot sloppy throws.
Maybe all of this is correctable and we could see him get better at all of this in time, but by the the time he does all of this, he'll be 20-25 pounds heavier. It could make a lot of sense to eliminate all of his throwing issues by giving him a first base glove. His big body is almost a perfect target to throw to.
Dalbec to me is a wildcard, but if he's bringing the defense and legitimate power, he could be a 1-2 win player just with those two aspects being the main or only part of his game.
If this outcome were to play out, then you're probably losing JD Martinez, but I'm okay with that considering you have a lot of money to dish out to a lot of other of the inhouse free agents to be.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 3, 2019 12:16:26 GMT -5
Isn't there a outcome where you see all 3 of Dalbec, Devers, and Chavis stay and play for minimum slaries in 2020 or 2021? To me, it's possible. Chavis seems like a future DH and part time position player, especially with his durability issues. Devers is a shaky defender even before he's filling out. He's not very good at the glove to ball in his hand transfer (which is why he was working with Pedrioa a lot last year, who is one of the best I have ever seen do it). His footwork also leads to a lot sloppy throws. Maybe all of this is correctable and we could see him get better at all of this in time, but by the the time he does all of this, he'll be 20-25 pounds heavier. It could make a lot of sense to eliminate all of his throwing issues by giving him a first base glove. His big body is almost a perfect target to throw to. Dalbec to me is a wildcard, but if he's bringing the defense and legitimate power, he could be a 1-2 win player just with those two aspects being the main or only part of his game. If this outcome were to play out, then you're probably losing JD Martinez, but I'm okay with that considering you have a lot of money to dish out to a lot of other of the inhouse free agents to be. For me? No. That's because you're assuming the best possible outcome for all three, I think, at least offensively. I think it questionable that both Chavis and Dalbec develop into Role 5 players. I also think the assumption that Devers is going to get 20-25 pounds heavier is a faulty assumption. Possible? Sure. But it's entirely possible he keeps the same physique. You're acting like he's a 16-year-old who is still growing. He's young, but not "he's definitely going to get bigger" young (and even that assumption is often faulty, see Jose "Skinny Vinny" Vinicio). A contending team isn't going to put two rookie question marks in its lineup in the way you propose. This feels a lot like if someone a few years ago were to say "but couldn't you see a scenario in which Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, AND Cecchini are in the same lineup?" (And yes, credit Alex Speier for the comparison on the podcast.) Well, no... because it rarely turns out that way.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 3, 2019 12:31:01 GMT -5
As you get older, your body tends to fill out (as in gain weight). I just expect Devers to keep gaining weight as he gets older. Sure, maybe if he stays on some Tom Brady like diet, he could stay as thin as he is now, but it's going to be hard.
I don't think he's getting any taller and bigger that way. Devers' body seems like the kind that could gain a lot of weight at any point if he's not keeping on top of it all the time.
Hard to project when all the weight will come. Whether it's 2 or 5 years from now, who knows?
I just see a scenario where you have to pay Xander, Mookie, and Sale. Then you have to give raises in arbitration and/or extensions to Eduardo Rodriguez and Benintendi. That's a ton of money right there between those 5 players going out. You need a lot of minimum salaries somewhere else to make up for that. So it'll be interesting to see where it comes from.
Add- The Sox have already hired a full-time nutritionist for Devers, so I think they're seeing the writing on the wall with his body type. Hopefully the nutritionist can keep the weight off for as long as possible, but we'll see.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 3, 2019 14:57:44 GMT -5
People spend too much time thinking about Devers' body.
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Post by Smittyw on Feb 3, 2019 16:39:35 GMT -5
People spend too much time thinking about Devers' body. As long as I never have to hear about Pablo Sandoval's body again, I can live with it.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 3, 2019 22:36:35 GMT -5
As you get older, your body tends to fill out (as in gain weight). I just expect Devers to keep gaining weight as he gets older. Sure, maybe if he stays on some Tom Brady like diet, he could stay as thin as he is now, but it's going to be hard. I don't think he's getting any taller and bigger that way. Devers' body seems like the kind that could gain a lot of weight at any point if he's not keeping on top of it all the time. Hard to project when all the weight will come. Whether it's 2 or 5 years from now, who knows? I just see a scenario where you have to pay Xander, Mookie, and Sale. Then you have to give raises in arbitration and/or extensions to Eduardo Rodriguez and Benintendi. That's a ton of money right there between those 5 players going out. You need a lot of minimum salaries somewhere else to make up for that. So it'll be interesting to see where it comes from. Add- The Sox have already hired a full-time nutritionist for Devers, so I think they're seeing the writing on the wall with his body type. Hopefully the nutritionist can keep the weight off for as long as possible, but we'll see. I think you’re making a huge generalization there, at least in terms of magnitude. Yes, human males tend to stop growing vertically by 21 (and by 18-19 for any significant amount), and tend to add bulk, particularly from 18-30, at least in a “programmed physiology” sense. Certainly a lot of the change we see in our day-to-day observation is lifestyle-related. But Devers came up as a chubby kid with a fair amount of bad weight. You have to look at where he started. Even myself, personally...I was 6’, 160# at my peak weight in college, when I was sprinting and working out 4 hours a day, even doing a LOT of weight-lifting. 15 years later I topped out near 200, because I was lazy. I’m still lazy but I have better habits and I’m 165-170#. It’s entirely possible that Devers starts eating really well, running, and stretching more, and his “bad body” was a product of bad habits combined with genetic predisposition. He may simply redistribute, rather than add, weight. I also think Chris’s point about Devers’s age really bears repeating: he’s roughly 18 months *younger* than Dalbec. He’s VERY young for an MLBer. He’s not remotely close to the end of his defensive developmental line. Wade Boggs eventually won a GG and was a *good* 3b. But he came up as, if not a defensive butcher, at least a liability...at 24. Any idea of moving Devers down the defensive spectrum at this point...even entertaining the idea...is just incredibly foolish. I think the closest we should even get to that is that if Dalbec hits his 95th %ike outcome, and somehow manages to K around 30% while hitting 25-30 HR, slashing .260/.350/.500 or so, and playing Graig Nettles to Matt Chapman’s Brooks Robinson, then he FORCES Devers off 3b simply because vintage Graig Nettles (or even Nettles lite) is a guy you have to get on the field. Devers’s floor is basically what he showed last year, which you move only when something better comes along, because of the related costs. Odds are that he’s better than that, and probably at least a 2-3 WAR player because of the bat. So maybe to save money, if he IS still bad defensively in 2020, and the bat is enough for him to be a 2.5-WAR 3b, maybe you give Dalbec a look. But you’ve gotta be pretty sure he’s going to provide at least those 2-3 wins at 3b, or you’re hurting the team (with the acceptance of maybe it’s feasible because of salary savings). But basically, I think it’s Devers needs to be forced to move, rather than doing so in anticipation. I don’t think he’s going to play himself off of 3b.
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 4, 2019 1:02:00 GMT -5
Made a new thread. I think we'll be talking about this a lot this year. Dalbec is probably the better defender, but he's nowhere near a certainty to even play in the majors, never mind move Devers over to first. There's such a wide delta in his potential outcomes that I feel comfortable putting "multiple-time All-Star," "breaks Mike Hessman's AAA HR record," and "future MLB relief pitcher" on that spectrum, which is kind of crazy for a college hitter who has made it to AA already. At this point, Devers should continue working with Febles at third. He has the tools to be solid there. Remember, Devers is a year and a half YOUNGER than Dalbec - if we're going to credit Dalbec for his defensive improvement at age 23, we should probably let Devers turn 23 before we're moving him. If Dalbec continues raking, he might become trade bait. He's got all the hallmarks of the guys Dombrowski has moved: peak of his value, position they're deep at in MLB, position they're deep at in the system. How about the other way around: will Dalbec be bringing a first baseman's glove to practice this season, or next?
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 4, 2019 1:12:59 GMT -5
People spend too much time thinking about Devers' body. As long as I never have to hear about Pablo Sandoval's body again, I can live with it. If anything, it seems like Vlad Jr. is someone who: a) doesn't look like he can stick at 3b, much more so than Devers, esp. as Vlad gets to be Devers' age, and older, and........ b) even if he became a DH, Vlad Jr. just looks like he's someone who may even have problems running bases, or just being able to stay healthy enough to be just a DH, in spite of his obvious hitting prowess, if he doesn't get control over his body getting bigger. Then again, I dimly recall that Fielder was quite durable, I believe.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 4, 2019 1:25:30 GMT -5
People spend too much time thinking about Devers' body. If they are, they should be heartened to hear that he's actually taking better care of his body now. He's eating right. He'll be in the BSOHL!! And I think in this case, with further strike zone maturation, it will matter. Devers could break out big-time this year. And his defense will be fine as he gains more experience.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 4, 2019 1:27:25 GMT -5
Honestly I expect Devers to blossom into an all-star 3b who can hopefully soon bat 3rd between Betts and JDM.
I anticipate that Chavis will be the Sox 1b in 2020.
I think Dalbec along with some other reliever(s) will be dealt for an impact reliever come July. Somebody will bite on his power and defense and hope he can limit his Ks to 30% or less.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 4, 2019 12:40:39 GMT -5
People spend too much time thinking about Devers' body. If they are, they should be heartened to hear that he's actually taking better care of his body now. He's eating right. He'll be in the BSOHL!! And I think in this case, with further strike zone maturation, it will matter. Devers could break out big-time this year. And his defense will be fine as he gains more experience. He's managed his weight as a professional since he was 16. He's now 22 and if anything taking his training more seriously than ever. He's never going to be the most athletic guy on the field but he's perfectly capable and most likely will be for quite some time. It's a little like people still complaining about Chris Sale's mechanics after his third year as a starter or whatever. If you want to worry about Devers, worry that that hit tool has not come as advertised.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 4, 2019 13:10:20 GMT -5
One thing to consider about Devers is his body type. He's a mesomorph. The upside to that is if he's in fact a guy who takes care of his body he's going to be very big and strong for years to come. Think Albert Pujols, who for all we know could look like Cecil Fielder if he didn't take care of his body.........now that I think about I'd love me some Cecil on this team.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 4, 2019 13:21:47 GMT -5
One thing to consider about Devers is his body type. 4/5ths of the posts in this thread are about Devers' body type. Though I'm sure he (and Fielder) would be flattered to have it compared to Pujols'. I... would encourage you to take a longer look at pre-foot-injury Albert Pujols.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 5, 2019 13:48:11 GMT -5
One thing to consider about Devers is his body type. 4/5ths of the posts in this thread are about Devers' body type. Though I'm sure he (and Fielder) would be flattered to have it compared to Pujols'. I... would encourage you to take a longer look at pre-foot-injury Albert Pujols. I'm just going to stop there and concede any argument that could have ensued because I'm just uncomfortable throwing comparisons around like Pujols (even though I just did). But I would like to correct my original statement in that Devers is more of an Endomorph. But this is never an either or thing, both those guys are probably inbetween Endo/Mesmo with Pujols being a little further on the other end of the mesomorph spectrum. I would like to clarify and expand the original point I think I failed to make. While Devers has the type of body one has to be careful about, he also has an advantage if he chooses to take care of himself. It's a blessing and a curse and he'll get out of himself physically 100% what he puts in. The Kid could be a beast. Yeah I know, we're still talking about his body type and I apologize, but I think he's perfectly capable of staying at third if he takes care of himself, and if his hit tool develops he's perfectly capable of maintaining the strength and power that could make him a monster at 1B.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 5, 2019 17:30:46 GMT -5
People spend too much time thinking about Devers' body. If they are, they should be heartened to hear that he's actually taking better care of his body now. He's eating right. He'll be in the BSOHL!! And I think in this case, with further strike zone maturation, it will matter. Devers could break out big-time this year. And his defense will be fine as he gains more experience. Every time I see your edited screen name, I get a wry smile and think about what an awesome season it was, right from the get-go to Sale bookending it to close things out. And, yeah...Devers has a LOT of room to improve with both glove and bat. Most players his age are looking forward to starting the season in High-A or maybe, if they’re talented, AA. Dude JUST turned 22. I love Dalbec as an upside dream, and I used Graig Nettles as a comparo for a reason. But his floor is AAA washout/AAAA (a la Brentz) or 25-y/o RP conversion, and the *liklihood* he reaches his ceiling is probably lower than for most. If anything, I see Chavis grabbing time with the bat, be it 1B or DH or COF, kinda like Pearce. But Dalbec’s hit tool needs a LOT of polishing.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 5, 2019 17:38:54 GMT -5
Also, because we’re talking athleticism and 3b, I do think Devers deserves credit for his ability to charge and make tough plays. Yes, he’s been *inconsistent*, and he’s flubbed some easy plays and made plenty of mental mistakes and hurried throws. BUT, he’s also shown an ability to make some pretty tough plays. Like, wow! plays. So I really think that things like lateral quickness, setting his footwork for good throws (he has what looks like 65 pure arm strength to me), and eliminating mental errors will come fairly quickly in the next 3-4 years. I mean, really...he played all but a few playoff games at 21. He’s going to get *lots* of practice.
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Post by costpet on Feb 6, 2019 9:14:14 GMT -5
Dalbec is 6'4". Sounds like a 1b to me. Big power with average BA. You see that a lot in the ML. Chavis is only 5'10". I would give him reps this year in AAA in the outfield.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 6, 2019 10:31:29 GMT -5
Dalbec is 6'4". Sounds like a 1b to me. Why is everyone so obsessed with what players are shaped like rather than what their skills are? Dalbec has a rocket for an arm. You're wasting a huge chunk of his value, just because he's tall?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 6, 2019 14:33:41 GMT -5
Dalbec is 6'4". Sounds like a 1b to me. Why is everyone so obsessed with what players are shaped like rather than what their skills are? Dalbec has a rocket for an arm. You're wasting a huge chunk of his value, just because he's tall? Chris Bryant is listed at 6'5". Scott Rolen was listed at 6'4". Plenty of guys have held down shortstop at that size. This is not a thing.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 6, 2019 17:53:30 GMT -5
Yeah I don't necessarily think that the body issue is the main reason why I want Devers to try first base in the near future.
It's his mistakes that might end up being the main problem. He's really young, but I wouldn't necessarily assume it's going to improve a ton with experience. Devers' glove to throwing hand issues and his footwork could be a problem for the entire time at third base. It could get better, but I'm definitely not going to assume it is going to happen.
I wouldn't be exactly heartbroken if Devers gets a extra 10-20 pounds of muscle either. That just means he's going to be hitting the ball even harder (if that's even possible, scary power Devers has). It could mean his athleticism isn't suited best for third base however.
Dalbec needs to improve his hit tool and I hope he does. If he's the better defensive third baseman, then the organization can really benefit from a Dalbec at third base and Devers at first base situation for the next 5 years. You would get really good to great defense at third base, you would have your classic masher at first base, and you would have power all around.
JD Martinez is most likely leaving now if the DH rule changes for 2020. So the Sox need to look at internal and external solutions to fix that problem.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 6, 2019 18:17:28 GMT -5
One thing to consider about Devers is his body type. 4/5ths of the posts in this thread are about Devers' body type. Though I'm sure he (and Fielder) would be flattered to have it compared to Pujols'. I... would encourage you to take a longer look at pre-foot-injury Albert Pujols. Not to mention this discussion feels like a rehash of the same discussion we had with Xander. He also didn't have the body to play SS.
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