SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 30, 2019 15:02:18 GMT -5
Sox have 78 games left. 34 of those are against sub-.500 teams. The rest are against the teams in front of them (NYY 12, TB 11, Clev 3, Tex 3) plus games against the NL West.
The Wild Card is absolutely achievable given this schedule (and, academically, the Division if they sweep the Yankees and the Rays, but let's be real). From there it's a new season and a crap shoot.
Gotta fix then pen NOW however, if they want to go for it.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2019 13:54:58 GMT -5
FG playoff odds: HOU 99.5 NYY 99.4 MIN 97.6 TBR 75.8 BOS 56.8 CLE 44.7 OAK 17.8 TEX 5.5 LAA 2.8
Win WS odds: HOU 20.1 LAD 19.6 NYY 16.0 MIN 8.2 ATL 7.5 CHC 6.7 BOS 5.3 TBR 4.4 WAS 4.0 CLE 2.4 MIL 2.3
So they're the favorite to get the second wild card and have the 7th best championship odds.
Sounds like a situation where I'd try to improve the club, personally.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 1, 2019 14:55:30 GMT -5
Current MLB standings against teams that matter to you: Yankees - 54-28 Rays - 48-36 Rangers - 46-38 Indians - 45-38 Athletics - 46-39 Red Sox - 44-40 Angels - 42-43
In the month of June the teams were as follows: Yankees - 17-9 (.654) Rays - 13-16 (.448) Rangers - 18-11 (.621) Indians - 17-9 (.654) Athletics - 17-11 (.607) Red Sox - 15-12 (.556) Angels - 15-13 (.536)
Interesting note, the Red Sox have not finished a month at .600 or higher.
Red Sox have the following statistics going for/against them: The Red Sox in their last 30 are 15-15. The Red Sox are 18-26 against winning teams. The Red Sox are 26-14 against losing teams. The Red Sox are 35-27 against RHP. The Red Sox are 9-13 against LHP. The Red Sox are 20-22 at home. The Red Sox are 24-18 away. The Red Sox are 6-3 in extra inning games. The Red Sox are 12-11 in 1-run games.
Run differential of each team that currently matters to you: Yankees - +105 Rays - +83 Rangers - +36 Indians - 0 Athletics - +58 Red Sox - +46 Angels - -2
Strength of remaining schedule: Yankees - .501 Rays - .486 Rangers - .510 Indians - .490 Athletics - .499 Red Sox - .498 Angels - .515
Red Sox magic Numbers: 97 - .680 93 - .629 90 - .590
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 2, 2019 5:16:25 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on Jul 2, 2019 7:07:08 GMT -5
Frankly I do not see them having any chance to win the series. Making the playoffs very possible. Any one of the 6 or so wildcard teams are very beatable. Yup if you can make the playoffs anything is possible. Except for Xander who is having a great year? Pitching in general has been poor especially the pen. Can not see them beating the yanks or Houston. Maybe the short term goal for the next 2 to 3 weeks should be getting rid of any of the guys who will not be here next year. Nunez and Pierce for starters. Does Moreland have any value? Long term are we keeping Brock, Sandy, and Porcello? Maybe the first step is to MAKE SURE we do not go over the cap penalty. What do you want to keep from the bullpen? Except for Brock and Rick you will not probably get more than a bag of balls. I think we are entering the transition phase a little earlier than Dave would have wanted. Not going with giving up and tanking just looking at realistic options.
|
|
|
Post by prangerx on Jul 2, 2019 7:26:13 GMT -5
Trading Betts makes sense if you think you can't re-sign him now..The fact he has a year and a half left gets you a better return. I don't expect them to do that though.
JD is a possibility too, especially with his opt out. But I suspect they told hold onto him too. With the market so tenative its very possible he doesn't get much more then his current contract.
If we do become sellers, I expect Porcello to get traded. Moreland could be dealt if he ever gets healthy. They would probably try to get whatever they can get for Nunez. Porcello is probably the only one of the three that would net us a decent return.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 3, 2019 21:22:21 GMT -5
6-12 in Chris Sale's starts.
6-5 Vs the jays 1-6 vs NYY 2-4 vs the Astros 1-2 vs CLE 1-2 vs ARZ 4-5 vs TB 2-2 vs TEX 2-2 vs DET
SELL
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 3, 2019 21:38:55 GMT -5
2GB of the WC...
BUT:
behind CLE/OAK/TEX in the standings
AND
CHI/LAA 2 GB behind us...
So yah, its not even a guarantee we get the 2nd WC
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 3, 2019 21:47:08 GMT -5
6-12 in Chris Sale's starts. 6-5 Vs the jays 1-6 vs NYY 2-4 vs the Astros 1-2 vs CLE 1-2 vs ARZ 4-5 vs TB 2-2 vs TEX 2-2 vs DET SELL Sell who exactly? They're not going to deal JDM or Betts or JBJ, because it screws up their chances to win in 2020. Porcello has been lousy and the 1b have been injured. So what is this big return you're going to get for dumping Porcello? So what are they getting of use or quality for selling?
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 3, 2019 21:48:17 GMT -5
6-12 in Chris Sale's starts. 6-5 Vs the jays 1-6 vs NYY 2-4 vs the Astros 1-2 vs CLE 1-2 vs ARZ 4-5 vs TB 2-2 vs TEX 2-2 vs DET SELL Sell who exactly? They're not going to deal JDM or Betts or JBJ, because it screws up their chances to win in 2020. Porcello has been lousy and the 1b have been injured. So what is this big return you're going to get for dumping Porcello? So what are they getting of use or quality for selling? Sell or stand pat. I don’t want them trading prospects in what is essentially a lost season.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 3, 2019 21:51:05 GMT -5
Sell who exactly? They're not going to deal JDM or Betts or JBJ, because it screws up their chances to win in 2020. Porcello has been lousy and the 1b have been injured. So what is this big return you're going to get for dumping Porcello? So what are they getting of use or quality for selling? Sell or stand pat. I don’t want them trading prospects in what is essentially a lost season. Depending upon the prospects I don't want them to either. I'd rather see them make a small move. But they have very little of value to actually sell, so saying sell doesn't make a helluva lot a sense. You need the 2020 assets to make a run in 2020 and the 2019 assets aren't worth much. They're not getting anything for Nunez, and very little for Porcello, and at the moment nothing for Moreland and even less for Pearce. Maybe a low level minor leaguer for Holt. Basically nothing.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 3, 2019 22:22:08 GMT -5
6-12 in Chris Sale's starts. 6-5 Vs the jays 1-6 vs NYY 2-4 vs the Astros 1-2 vs CLE 1-2 vs ARZ 4-5 vs TB 2-2 vs TEX 2-2 vs DET SELL Sell who exactly? They're not going to deal JDM or Betts or JBJ, because it screws up their chances to win in 2020. Porcello has been lousy and the 1b have been injured. So what is this big return you're going to get for dumping Porcello? So what are they getting of use or quality for selling? I think Porcello has value, but I really disagree with this sentiment that trading Mookie, JDM, ect makes them significantly worse in 2020. For this season, neither guy is giving you what you're hoping for. With that said, you are getting something back. It's not like you're getting nothing or just a bunch of DSL/A ball kids. You're likely getting a collection of high end prospects that are close from teams that are desperate to buy in a sellers market. Even if you want to be more competitive than relying on blue chip products, you can flip them in the off-season when the cost of a star will be depreciated. This is also assuming JDM doesn't opt out and sign elsewhere. You might lose him anyways.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 3, 2019 22:47:54 GMT -5
Sell who exactly? They're not going to deal JDM or Betts or JBJ, because it screws up their chances to win in 2020. Porcello has been lousy and the 1b have been injured. So what is this big return you're going to get for dumping Porcello? So what are they getting of use or quality for selling? I think Porcello has value, but I really disagree with this sentiment that trading Mookie, JDM, ect makes them significantly worse in 2020. For this season, neither guy is giving you what you're hoping for. With that said, you are getting something back. It's not like you're getting nothing or just a bunch of DSL/A ball kids. You're likely getting a collection of high end prospects that are close from teams that are desperate to buy in a sellers market. Even if you want to be more competitive than relying on blue chip products, you can flip them in the off-season when the cost of a star will be depreciated. This is also assuming JDM doesn't opt out and sign elsewhere. You might lose him anyways. I think trading Mookie is a remarkably bad idea. There’s simply no way in hell they recoup his value, especially with him having a down year. If anything, it makes sense to aggressively attempt to re-sign him now. He’s averaged 8 fWAR in the tree years running up to this one. That’s second in MLB. With only a year and a half left, they’re not going to get a supreme return, and history says this year is somewhat of an anomaly. I honestly think it’s got something to do with his unresolved contract issue. I think he’s pressing. But regardless, even if he’s a 5-WAR player and not a 7-8 WAR player, he’s providing $10M in excess value on a $30M AAV contract, and concentrated value at a single position (a 5-win player is worth a lot more than two, or even three, 2.5-win players, because the latter are far easier to acquire/develop). I do think moving JDM is something to explore, but I likewise think he’s seeing his FA value drop substantially, while nevertheless seeing little change to his true talent. It makes more sense to keep him, and attempt to do so for the life of his contract. At his current performance, and two years older, I think he’d have to be nuts to opt out. He signed a more-than-reasonable DH deal coming off a HUGE year in AZ; coming off a 2-3 WAR season (as it looks now), with questions of age-related decline, he’d be hard-pressed to get 3/45, imo. I think the Sox are better off doing everything they can to repeat, and then hoping on their luck turning next year (or even this year), especially with the development of Devers and Chavis, and continued emergence of Bogey. Even if Martinez opts out, they could very likely eventually re-sign him on a better deal, given the current market dynamics. And an opt-out means draft compensation, so the return would have to be greater than that or it’s a non-starter, unless they WANT to shed his salary. Looking at the return Detroit got, im not sure that’s a foregone conclusion. I think packing it in right now sends a terrible message at very, very little upside. This team isn’t very good, but I genuinely believe a fair amount of that is just crummy luck mixed with some individual struggles and unsuccessful moves.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 3, 2019 22:49:57 GMT -5
Sell who exactly? They're not going to deal JDM or Betts or JBJ, because it screws up their chances to win in 2020. Porcello has been lousy and the 1b have been injured. So what is this big return you're going to get for dumping Porcello? So what are they getting of use or quality for selling? I think Porcello has value, but I really disagree with this sentiment that trading Mookie, JDM, ect makes them significantly worse in 2020. For this season, neither guy is giving you what you're hoping for. With that said, you are getting something back. It's not like you're getting nothing or just a bunch of DSL/A ball kids. You're likely getting a collection of high end prospects that are close from teams that are desperate to buy in a sellers market. Even if you want to be more competitive than relying on blue chip products, you can flip them in the off-season when the cost of a star will be depreciated. This is also assuming JDM doesn't opt out and sign elsewhere. You might lose him anyways. If you think you have no shot at signing Betts and you think that the prospect you get has a chance to be anywhere near as productive as Betts is likely to be in 2020 and Betts is likely to be more productive next year than he is this year, then you can make a deal without ruining 2020. I'm dubious on that happening, though. If the Red Sox are to have a legit shot at winning in 2020 they need the great Mookie and the great JDM. The odds that prospects would be as good as those two are kind of remote. I would expect the core to be better in 2020 than it has been in 2019 and I'd hope they'd fill in the gaps a lot better than they have in 2019. As far as the "math" of the Red Sox goes, I still think they have a hot streak in them, but the chances of them winning 93 games this year gets more and more remote. They'd have to go 48-28, which is 76 games worth of .632 ball. It's possible but getting more and more less likely. You might be correct that this is a 88 win team and if it is, it's a coin toss if that's going to be good enough to get them into the playoffs. Maybe they land between 88 and 93 wins - perhaps 91?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 8:20:08 GMT -5
I think Porcello has value, but I really disagree with this sentiment that trading Mookie, JDM, ect makes them significantly worse in 2020. For this season, neither guy is giving you what you're hoping for. With that said, you are getting something back. It's not like you're getting nothing or just a bunch of DSL/A ball kids. You're likely getting a collection of high end prospects that are close from teams that are desperate to buy in a sellers market. Even if you want to be more competitive than relying on blue chip products, you can flip them in the off-season when the cost of a star will be depreciated. This is also assuming JDM doesn't opt out and sign elsewhere. You might lose him anyways. If you think you have no shot at signing Betts and you think that the prospect you get has a chance to be anywhere near as productive as Betts is likely to be in 2020 and Betts is likely to be more productive next year than he is this year, then you can make a deal without ruining 2020. I'm dubious on that happening, though. There is no realistic Betts trade that doesn't make the team significantly worse in 2020. Period. Who the hell are you going to get who even remotely projects to replace him? That's not a rhetorical question, I want a name.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 4, 2019 10:46:03 GMT -5
If you think you have no shot at signing Betts and you think that the prospect you get has a chance to be anywhere near as productive as Betts is likely to be in 2020 and Betts is likely to be more productive next year than he is this year, then you can make a deal without ruining 2020. I'm dubious on that happening, though. There is no realistic Betts trade that doesn't make the team significantly worse in 2020. Period. Who the hell are you going to get who even remotely projects to replace him? That's not a rhetorical question, I want a name. Nolan Arenado has an opt out in 2 years and is 28. Perhaps you trade and move Devers to 1B. Just did a quick search for a name. Not a terrible amount of thought went into this. My original comment isn't you trade Mookie directly for the future replacement. If you could get, say, a package surrounded around Wander Franco or Fernando Tatis Jr., or Forrest Whitley you could then flip them in the off-season and perhaps keep a kid or 2 in the process.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2019 11:40:34 GMT -5
If you think you have no shot at signing Betts and you think that the prospect you get has a chance to be anywhere near as productive as Betts is likely to be in 2020 and Betts is likely to be more productive next year than he is this year, then you can make a deal without ruining 2020. I'm dubious on that happening, though. There is no realistic Betts trade that doesn't make the team significantly worse in 2020. Period. Who the hell are you going to get who even remotely projects to replace him? That's not a rhetorical question, I want a name. You take offers and listen. It would be a combinination of names, not one. How about robbing the Astros farm system? How about robbing the Atlanta farm system? I could throw out some ideas.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 11:43:53 GMT -5
There is no realistic Betts trade that doesn't make the team significantly worse in 2020. Period. Who the hell are you going to get who even remotely projects to replace him? That's not a rhetorical question, I want a name. Nolan Arenado has an opt out in 2 years and is 28. Perhaps you trade and move Devers to 1B. Just did a quick search for a name. Not a terrible amount of thought went into this. My original comment isn't you trade Mookie directly for the future replacement. If you could get, say, a package surrounded around Wander Franco or Fernando Tatis Jr., or Forrest Whitley you could then flip them in the off-season and perhaps keep a kid or 2 in the process. This is a conversation for the trade proposal subforum but none of these trades are remotely going to happen.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 4, 2019 21:09:58 GMT -5
Nolan Arenado has an opt out in 2 years and is 28. Perhaps you trade and move Devers to 1B. Just did a quick search for a name. Not a terrible amount of thought went into this. My original comment isn't you trade Mookie directly for the future replacement. If you could get, say, a package surrounded around Wander Franco or Fernando Tatis Jr., or Forrest Whitley you could then flip them in the off-season and perhaps keep a kid or 2 in the process. This is a conversation for the trade proposal subforum but none of these trades are remotely going to happen. Yeah, I think the only teams that would have any interest in Mookie are those in the thick of the hunt, at the very least, WC contenders. Whittle that down to those with multiple 60 FV prospects or a 65-70 and at least two 55s. Whittle that down to those willing to take on $8M this year and probably $22-25M next. That’s an incredibly short list. There’s simply no viable market for Mookie and moving him kills their chances in ‘20. They’re not getting a prospect who steps in to post 4-7 WAR, which is conservatively what you can expect from him. I mean, I’d consider Wander Franco with another legit piece, but the Rays wouldn’t. Mathematically, and talent-wise, the Sox still have a fair to good shot. They haven’t looked good but recent history is littered with not-so-great WS winners. All it takes is getting in, and a couple key players getting hot. Moving Mookie drops their chances substantially this year and even more next. They bought into this situation and they’re going to see it through to the end of 2020. Maybe some minor selling/“retooling” makes sense, but trading your best player because he’s having a down year is very bad short-term and probably bad long-term, unless they luck into a ridiculous return.
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on Jul 5, 2019 5:53:24 GMT -5
Going with trading people, especially betts and JDM is not the way to go for this season. Truly correct tanking or trading the stars sends the wrong message. Last year going all in and spending the money and paying the penalty was the right choice. They had a GREAT chance to win and the sox won the series. This year the odds definitely do not look good at all to take the chance at paying the penalty. If you can trade any of the pieces that you are pretty sure will not be here next season deserves a serious look. The goal I would be trying to accomplish would be to make sure I do go over cap numbers that incur penalties for players. I am sure a team like the brewers would be very interested in Porcello. The return is probably not great but it helps on the salary penalties. Who knows maybe you pick up a Larry Anderson Bagwell type trade. Trading Betts is a whole different conversation. you still have the key pieces to make a run next year so wait until the off season and decide whether you can keep him and at what price and make your decision from there. Its clear Dave wants to keep Betts , because he has made several long term offers that Betts has not accepted. Moving on from Nunez, Pearce, and Porcello should help with some salary relief, but more importantly open up some playing time for some young players to see if they fit next years run.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2019 8:35:26 GMT -5
Going with trading people, especially betts and JDM is not the way to go for this season. Truly correct tanking or trading the stars sends the wrong message. Last year going all in and spending the money and paying the penalty was the right choice. They had a GREAT chance to win and the sox won the series. This year the odds definitely do not look good at all to take the chance at paying the penalty. If you can trade any of the pieces that you are pretty sure will not be here next season deserves a serious look. The goal I would be trying to accomplish would be to make sure I do go over cap numbers that incur penalties for players. I am sure a team like the brewers would be very interested in Porcello. The return is probably not great but it helps on the salary penalties. Who knows maybe you pick up a Larry Anderson Bagwell type trade. Trading Betts is a whole different conversation. you still have the key pieces to make a run next year so wait until the off season and decide whether you can keep him and at what price and make your decision from there. Its clear Dave wants to keep Betts , because he has made several long term offers that Betts has not accepted. Moving on from Nunez, Pearce, and Porcello should help with some salary relief, but more importantly open up some playing time for some young players to see if they fit next years run. If you trade Porcello you are effectively giving up on even getting a wild card spot this year. I don't know why the Red Sox should do that. Everybody acts like a 5 game deficit on 7/31 is a death blow to winning a wild card spot. You're talking about catching the 5th best team in the league. That's not THAT tall an order. You have a 16-6 streak or something like that and a team playing .540 baseball goes 11-11 which happens all of the time, then there goes the deficit. And the Sox aren't even down 5 games in the standings. They're down a game or two. Getting back to Porcello, he had not been great this year - which means teams probably are very unlikely to give up anything of major substance to get back a rental of a pitcher struggling - the days of a GM not knowing what he truly has is gone - there are no old school Lou Gorman types around anymore as GMs. Plus if the Sox lose Porcello they have very little shot at winning a winnable wild card spot. They already have the #5 spot in the rotation as a gaping hole. They don't need two gaping holes in the rotation. These 3 inning spot starts are not helping the Red Sox. Having them twice in five games rather than once in five games will totally destroy an already flammable bullpen. So then there's Pearce and Nunez. NOBODY is giving up anything to obtain and they're surely not taking on the money. Mitch Moreland would have some value but he's been injured for awhile. Frankly the best thing the Sox can do is hang onto what they got, try to see if they can finagle a back end starter, and perhaps see if things line up to get a closer without giving up too much (Highly doubtful on that account!), ride the course, have their core play better, hope that Eovaldi is the answer in the pen (not banking on it), and then hope they win the Wild Card game and go on the hot streak of their season (again doubtful, but better than punting in July for very little reason).
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 13:31:46 GMT -5
This is a conversation for the trade proposal subforum but none of these trades are remotely going to happen. Yeah, I think the only teams that would have any interest in Mookie are those in the thick of the hunt, at the very least, WC contenders. Whittle that down to those with multiple 60 FV prospects or a 65-70 and at least two 55s. Whittle that down to those willing to take on $8M this year and probably $22-25M next. That’s an incredibly short list. There’s simply no viable market for Mookie and moving him kills their chances in ‘20. They’re not getting a prospect who steps in to post 4-7 WAR, which is conservatively what you can expect from him. I mean, I’d consider Wander Franco with another legit piece, but the Rays wouldn’t. Ohh I thoroughly disagree Telson. The Braves and Astros could go into a bidding war (speaking of WAR), over a guy like Betts who has a year and a half of control. Heck like you said, Tampa Bay could even get involved if you paid for most of his salary this year. There's a ton of value in trading Betts, if you're out of the race, that is. I think you could get Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley, if the Sox wanted to sell, for example. Add- Someone please tell me a more valuable piece on the trade market this deadline than Mookie Betts, if he were to be made available.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 13:52:24 GMT -5
There are zero scenarios where John Henry or Dave Dombrowski are going to trade Mookie Betts absent of him refusing to play until he's traded. There are zero scenarios where the Red Sox have as good of a team in 2020 if they trade Mookie Betts.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 5, 2019 14:00:14 GMT -5
There are zero scenarios where John Henry or Dave Dombrowski are going to trade Mookie Betts absent of him refusing to play until he's traded. There are zero scenarios where the Red Sox have as good of a team in 2020 if they trade Mookie Betts. I don't expect both he and JDM to be on this team in 2021. My gut tells me they'd prioritize Mookie which means JDM would be gone end of season. The trade Mookie talk is entirely predicated that the Red Sox FO has a number for him, he wants to go over that, and they know someone is willing to pay that and they won't go there. If JDM is looking for a pay raise and the Sox want to stay under, he's gone. Unless they sign him and just want to play out Mookie's last year, but I think they want Mookie long-term.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 14:01:18 GMT -5
There are zero scenarios where John Henry or Dave Dombrowski are going to trade Mookie Betts absent of him refusing to play until he's traded. There are zero scenarios where the Red Sox have as good of a team in 2020 if they trade Mookie Betts. They could have a quality team if still trade him. Unless you're telling me you don't believe in Devers, Xander, the rest of the pitching staff. If the Sox are 4+ games out of the second wildcard, they better trade Mookie or it could be the biggest mistake that holds the franchise back for the future.
|
|
|