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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 14:03:00 GMT -5
There are zero scenarios where John Henry or Dave Dombrowski are going to trade Mookie Betts absent of him refusing to play until he's traded. There are zero scenarios where the Red Sox have as good of a team in 2020 if they trade Mookie Betts. They could have a quality team if still trade him. Unless you're telling me you don't believe in Devers, Xander, the rest of the pitching staff. If the Sox are 4+ games out of the second wildcard, they better trade Mookie or it could be the biggest mistake that holds the franchise back for the future. Whoever they trade Mookie for will not make the team better in 2020. They are setup to win now, not 5 years from now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 14:10:20 GMT -5
They could have a quality team if still trade him. Unless you're telling me you don't believe in Devers, Xander, the rest of the pitching staff. If the Sox are 4+ games out of the second wildcard, they better trade Mookie or it could be the biggest mistake that holds the franchise back for the future. Whoever they trade Mookie for will not make the team better in 2020. They are setup to win now, not 5 years from now. The Red Sox can't win with a veteran Devers on their roster 5 years from now? I would rather take the hit in 2020, personally. You're losing Porcello and maybe JDM anyways after this season, so you're getting weaker by not doing anything already in 2020.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 14:11:24 GMT -5
Whoever they trade Mookie for will not make the team better in 2020. They are setup to win now, not 5 years from now. The Red Sox can't win with a veteran Devers on their roster 5 years from now? I would rather take the hit in 2020, personally. You're losing Porcello and maybe JDM anyways after this season, so you're getting weaker by not doing anything already in 2020. What's the Red Sox projected rotation in 2024? Also, 5 years from now Devers will either be gone or making $30 million a year. Plus they have about zero impact prospects in the system that can be penciled into any lineup. I also don't think there's a chance in hell that JDM leaves. His opt-outs are probably for the DH rule expanding to the NL.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 5, 2019 22:48:19 GMT -5
Yeah, I think the only teams that would have any interest in Mookie are those in the thick of the hunt, at the very least, WC contenders. Whittle that down to those with multiple 60 FV prospects or a 65-70 and at least two 55s. Whittle that down to those willing to take on $8M this year and probably $22-25M next. That’s an incredibly short list. There’s simply no viable market for Mookie and moving him kills their chances in ‘20. They’re not getting a prospect who steps in to post 4-7 WAR, which is conservatively what you can expect from him. I mean, I’d consider Wander Franco with another legit piece, but the Rays wouldn’t. Ohh I thoroughly disagree Telson. The Braves and Astros could go into a bidding war (speaking of WAR), over a guy like Betts who has a year and a half of control. Heck like you said, Tampa Bay could even get involved if you paid for most of his salary this year. There's a ton of value in trading Betts, if you're out of the race, that is. I think you could get Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley, if the Sox wanted to sell, for example. Add- Someone please tell me a more valuable piece on the trade market this deadline than Mookie Betts, if he were to be made available. YES, the Rays might be in it if the Sox included, say, $20M. That means you’re going to be asking back (conservatively), 8 WARx $8.5M/WAR= $68M plus $20M or $88M in excess value. Based on the playoff chance damage, and the public and clubhouse relations nightmare, put roughly a 25% premium on that. So, $110M in EV. You’re talking a 65 or 70 FV guy (Franco) and probably a 50-55. Theoretically possible? Sure. But highly unlikrlely given TB’s inability to re-sign Mookie and the premium value they put on prospects, especially superstars, since they CAN’T play in the $8.5M/WAR zone. There’s simply no way they trade Franco (and more, which the Sox would demand), because of their payroll limitations. They weight long-term cost control VERY heavily. Houston? I suppose you could argue that, but I’d point out two things: 1) they’re already a likely 100-win team, meaning they’re in the zone of rapidly diminishing returns on added value. Their playoffs odds are already sky-high. Trading for Mookie probably moves their WS odds marginally, since they’re already high and making the dance is big on luck. Houston is facing decline from several key players (including Altuve, Correa apparently, and Verlander, who age will eventually catch up to). They’re also facing the loss of Gerrit Cole through FA. They have Whitley, the game’s best pitching prospect, but he got shelled to start the year and is on suspension. He’s lost some luster, and you’d be asking Houston to sell low. That means the Sox would demand Tucker as well (as they should, because pitching prospects have such a high failure rate). Neither Martin nor Bukauskas is remotely sufficient as a second piece, if you’re going to approach the EV above. So you’re asking a team with an evolving window to put a hard stop on it and go for it all for two years, completely giving up the (good) chance to extend their window for 5-6 years while guys like Altuve, Verlander, Correa, Springer, et al are still around and productive. They have some great talent, but it’s up top, with the other top-100 guys being high-risk pitchers who are unlikely to be impact players. I don’t see it. They’d be risking way too much long-term for a questionable short-term gain. Maybe if they were in a divisional fight, but they’re not. Atlanta’s probably the team that would most benefit (secure the East, holding off Washington; improving their series odds the most iI’d imagine) from acquiring Mookie. They also have the youth and system to absorb losing guys up top, because their core is so young and the system so deep that they’re still in the upswing phase like TB, but without the payroll restrictions. And unlike TB (who aren’t likely catching NY), Atlanta could potentially re-sign Mookie, who’s from nearby TN. The problem with Atlanta is, they don’t have the high-end sure superstar the Sox would want back. Boston’s not going to want Riley due to their incredible current 3b depth, and he’s more 55-60 FV anyway. Pache would make a great second piece, but he’s not a headliner (although he fits as a great CF who might allow the Sox to move JBJ too). Kyle Wright has struggled tremendously; Soroka is integral to Atlanta’s hopes this year. Ian Anderson works, but again as a second piece. Atlanta’s NOT trading four 50-55 FV guys, which is what they’d need to do to approach $80-90M EV, which would be the likely price point if no money went back the other way. They’d be hard-pressed to come remotely close to a package the Sox would accept. And beyond all that, you’re asking the Sox to pack it in not just for this year, but next. They have no OF replacement ready, either. There’s just now way. I could maybe (*maybe*) see them moving JBJ, but Mookie...ain’t happening.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 5, 2019 23:09:11 GMT -5
There are zero scenarios where John Henry or Dave Dombrowski are going to trade Mookie Betts absent of him refusing to play until he's traded. There are zero scenarios where the Red Sox have as good of a team in 2020 if they trade Mookie Betts. They could have a quality team if still trade him. Unless you're telling me you don't believe in Devers, Xander, the rest of the pitching staff. If the Sox are 4+ games out of the second wildcard, they better trade Mookie or it could be the biggest mistake that holds the franchise back for the future. You’re talking about subtracting a player who’s been worth 8 fWAR on average from 2016-2018. He’s not playing well this season and look where they are in the standings. If they move him, it’s highly likely their 2020 iteration is a netherworld also-ran with 86-90 wins. *Could* they be good? Sure, with bounce backs from Sale and Beni and continued improvement from Bogey, Devers, Chavis, and Rodriguez. That’s asking a LOT to go right, beyond finding a RF replacement. Feasible is far from likely.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 3:10:18 GMT -5
Telson- 1) The Rays are the exact kind of desperate team that would pull off a Betts trade. They'd flip him as soon as next off-season started and recoup some of the value lost in the deadline trade. They've never won a world series, and they are desperate to get one. Never underestimate a team's desperation to win, a la Chapman trade with the Cubs.
2) I personally believe Houston has more pressure to win the next 2 years more than anyone in the league. Cole and Springer is under contract for one more year, and who knows how good Verlander is for how much longer? If the decline is coming soon for their core group outside of Bregman, then they need to win now while they're still great.
Selling Whitley right now for Mookie Betts isn't selling low. Like not at all. That's clearly a win now move, however.
3) I don't know much about Atlanta's system personally because I don't follow the NL as much, but I can see them pushing the "go" button and trading for Betts thinking they have a great chance of extending him. They have 2 superstars in Acuna and Freeman, imagine sticking Mookie right between or in front of those two? That's what I would be salavating if I was the Braves front office.
4) Let's see the trade packages for Mookie before writing off them so quickly. Mookie again, would be the most valuable piece to this deadline if Scherzer is staying put. Historically, the most lopsided trades in terms of value comes during the trade deadline. There would be at least 3 teams that I could see being involved, maybe more if a young rising team like the White Sox want to get involved and they think they have the money to get a extension done.
5) If the Sox do their jobs and start winning, this all becomes moot. This year, they have been inconsistent, even with all this talent. This is all theoretical of course, and consistent with the notion that the Sox are 4+ games out of the second wild card the last 3 days of the trade deadline. The risk goes down if you're out of it. You're then only "risking" 1 year for the next 3 or 4 years potentially. I wish this non sense would go away and the Sox would actually play up to their talent level (all except in the bullpen, this is more or less who they are at the moment). There's definitely more to this team and I would love to see it before it's too late, but the standings will determine otherwise if it doesn't. I still think they got a shot to win it all and go back to back, for sure.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 3:18:47 GMT -5
The Red Sox can't win with a veteran Devers on their roster 5 years from now? I would rather take the hit in 2020, personally. You're losing Porcello and maybe JDM anyways after this season, so you're getting weaker by not doing anything already in 2020. What's the Red Sox projected rotation in 2024? Also, 5 years from now Devers will either be gone or making $30 million a year. Plus they have about zero impact prospects in the system that can be penciled into any lineup. I also don't think there's a chance in hell that JDM leaves. His opt-outs are probably for the DH rule expanding to the NL. 1) I don't know who the Sox have penciled in, but they've always been creative and found ways to win 2) That's the exact reason why you trade Betts, to get impact players in your system who can grow with Devers. 3) You'd be lucky to pay Devers 30 million a year, especially if he keeps up his slugging upclimb as a hitter. That means you would be fortunate enough to have a superstar you can keep, and not a superstar who's threatening to hit free agency. 4) Even if JDM doesn't opt out, he'll get a year or two tacked on because that's what it should take to keep him. 5)Hopefully the Sox keep winning, I hate seeing the Sox reset, but I'd be willing to wait it out if it was the correct move. If they are enough games back of the second wild card to show that they need to be sellers, then sell away.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2019 8:38:49 GMT -5
Telson- 1) The Rays are the exact kind of desperate team that would pull off a Betts trade. They'd flip him as soon as next off-season started and recoup some of the value lost in the deadline trade. They've never won a world series, and they are desperate to get one. Never underestimate a team's desperation to win, a la Chapman trade with the Cubs. This is a very bad read on the Rays organization. They are hyper-focused on maximizing years of control. Alright, moving on from this topic.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 6, 2019 9:57:15 GMT -5
I'll make any bet for any amount of money that Betts goes nowhere no matter what happens. We may as well be arguing over whether the earth is flat.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 6, 2019 12:54:27 GMT -5
What's the Red Sox projected rotation in 2024? Also, 5 years from now Devers will either be gone or making $30 million a year. Plus they have about zero impact prospects in the system that can be penciled into any lineup. I also don't think there's a chance in hell that JDM leaves. His opt-outs are probably for the DH rule expanding to the NL. 1) I don't know who the Sox have penciled in, but they've always been creative and found ways to win 2) That's the exact reason why you trade Betts, to get impact players in your system who can grow with Devers. 3) You'd be lucky to pay Devers 30 million a year, especially if he keeps up his slugging upclimb as a hitter. That means you would be fortunate enough to have a superstar you can keep, and not a superstar who's threatening to hit free agency. 4) Even if JDM doesn't opt out, he'll get a year or two tacked on because that's what it should take to keep him.5)Hopefully the Sox keep winning, I hate seeing the Sox reset, but I'd be willing to wait it out if it was the correct move. If they are enough games back of the second wild card to show that they need to be sellers, then sell away. Or a $3M-$5M more a year on the remaining deal, with the Sox prob wanting a plate appearance clause of some sort to activate some of the cash.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 15:09:57 GMT -5
Telson- 1) The Rays are the exact kind of desperate team that would pull off a Betts trade. They'd flip him as soon as next off-season started and recoup some of the value lost in the deadline trade. They've never won a world series, and they are desperate to get one. Never underestimate a team's desperation to win, a la Chapman trade with the Cubs. This is a very bad read on the Rays organization. They are hyper-focused on maximizing years of control. Alright, moving on from this topic. Tampa Bay would go for it. Yes they would. Not a bad read at all, especially when they don't have many chances to actually go for it, dude. Atlanta is loaded with talent. I know that much. Add- The Rays would be maximizing years of control if they did indeed trade Betts the following off-season for younger talent with more control.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 6, 2019 18:48:32 GMT -5
This is a very bad read on the Rays organization. They are hyper-focused on maximizing years of control. Alright, moving on from this topic. Tampa Bay would go for it. Yes they would. Not a bad read at all, especially when they don't have many chances to actually go for it, dude. Atlanta is loaded with talent. I know that much. Add- The Rays would be maximizing years of control if they did indeed trade Betts the following off-season for younger talent with more control. I'd have a better chance of being a professional baseball player than TB getting Mookie. And I'm closer to 64 and can't hit or field.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 18:52:37 GMT -5
Tampa Bay would go for it. Yes they would. Not a bad read at all, especially when they don't have many chances to actually go for it, dude. Atlanta is loaded with talent. I know that much. Add- The Rays would be maximizing years of control if they did indeed trade Betts the following off-season for younger talent with more control. I'd have a better chance of being a professional baseball player than TB getting Mookie. And I'm closer to 64 and can't hit or field. I mean, if both teams are in the race, then it's moot anyways. If the Sox were out of it, they would have no problem sending him there because they know they can't resign him.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 6, 2019 20:04:47 GMT -5
I'd have a better chance of being a professional baseball player than TB getting Mookie. And I'm closer to 64 and can't hit or field. I mean, if both teams are in the race, then it's moot anyways. If the Sox were out of it, they would have no problem sending him there because they know they can't resign him. I'd have a better chance of being a professional baseball player than TB getting Mookie. There is no chance-- none-- none- that TB gets him. TB doesn't get a player like Mookie with his contract.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 6, 2019 21:20:56 GMT -5
Telson- 1) The Rays are the exact kind of desperate team that would pull off a Betts trade. They'd flip him as soon as next off-season started and recoup some of the value lost in the deadline trade. They've never won a world series, and they are desperate to get one. Never underestimate a team's desperation to win, a la Chapman trade with the Cubs. 2) I personally believe Houston has more pressure to win the next 2 years more than anyone in the league. Cole and Springer is under contract for one more year, and who knows how good Verlander is for how much longer? If the decline is coming soon for their core group outside of Bregman, then they need to win now while they're still great. Selling Whitley right now for Mookie Betts isn't selling low. Like not at all. That's clearly a win now move, however. 3) I don't know much about Atlanta's system personally because I don't follow the NL as much, but I can see them pushing the "go" button and trading for Betts thinking they have a great chance of extending him. They have 2 superstars in Acuna and Freeman, imagine sticking Mookie right between or in front of those two? That's what I would be salavating if I was the Braves front office. 4) Let's see the trade packages for Mookie before writing off them so quickly. Mookie again, would be the most valuable piece to this deadline if Scherzer is staying put. Historically, the most lopsided trades in terms of value comes during the trade deadline. There would be at least 3 teams that I could see being involved, maybe more if a young rising team like the White Sox want to get involved and they think they have the money to get a extension done. 5) If the Sox do their jobs and start winning, this all becomes moot. This year, they have been inconsistent, even with all this talent. This is all theoretical of course, and consistent with the notion that the Sox are 4+ games out of the second wild card the last 3 days of the trade deadline. The risk goes down if you're out of it. You're then only "risking" 1 year for the next 3 or 4 years potentially. I wish this non sense would go away and the Sox would actually play up to their talent level (all except in the bullpen, this is more or less who they are at the moment). There's definitely more to this team and I would love to see it before it's too late, but the standings will determine otherwise if it doesn't. I still think they got a shot to win it all and go back to back, for sure. On (1), I’d wholly disagree. They’re not desperate at all. They have a terrific young core, developing young pitching after injuries, a terrific pitcher in Snell who’s got 3 more control years and is having a down season, and they’ve proven to be astute at roster-specific innovation. They’re just starting an upswing, with a truly supreme talent at the most key defensive non-C position getting remarkably close (he’s destroyed high-A in limited time post-promotion; at 18 he’s moving very quickly), as well as a quality two-way player in McKay who looks like he’ll be a sometime All-Star. I might agree with “desperate” in a couple years, when Snell and others are approaching sell-off. But I think TB looks at their talent and youth and sees a long stretch of continued contention. If they were in a divisional dogfight with NY and it looked like Mookie would easily make them the best team in baseball, I could see it. But they’re still climbing to reach that spot. OTOH, your point re: flipping Mookie is a good one. That certainly might make such a move slightly more feasible. Problem is that teams know their own guys best, and I can’t see them giving up Franco, knowing they almost certainly won’t get a guy like him back. As for (2), I think this is your best argument. FWIW, the Astros are selling low on Whitley cuz he’s stunk and PED-suspended this year. By nature, that hurts his value. That would force inclusion of Tucker. No way the Sox do it otherwise. But since neither of us knows the Houston brass’s mindset, your view is as valid as mine. My impression is that with some $ to spend, and with Whitley and Tucker close and Alvarez hitting, Houston probably views themselves at having a terrific opportunity to retool but stay awesome, using that high-end youth to offset a few key losses/attrition, and helping save enough money to maybe sign one of Springer/Cole. But you may be right, certainly if they view the impending roster turnover as significant enough to knock them well off their perch, they could absolutely be in big for this year and next. Regarding (3), Atlanta simply doesn’t have the premium prospects. Hard stop. No chance the Sox take a bunch of probably good-not-great guys for the best position player they’ve had since Yaz. The only contenders with that sort of capital are TB and Houston (or Washington if they were willing to move Robles and Kieboom; they are actually probably the best fit in terms of prospect quality and win-now, particularly as a team on the edge...problem is the Sox have a SS, but they could flip Kieboom or play him at 2b I suppose, though that would hurt his value some).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 21:55:13 GMT -5
I mean, if both teams are in the race, then it's moot anyways. If the Sox were out of it, they would have no problem sending him there because they know they can't resign him. I'd have a better chance of being a professional baseball player than TB getting Mookie. There is no chance-- none-- none- that TB gets him. TB doesn't get a player like Mookie with his contract. They'd be renting him essentially.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 6, 2019 21:56:46 GMT -5
I'd have a better chance of being a professional baseball player than TB getting Mookie. There is no chance-- none-- none- that TB gets him. TB doesn't get a player like Mookie with his contract. They'd be renting him essentially. What kind of bet could we make? I agree to any terms.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 21:59:23 GMT -5
They'd be renting him essentially. What kind of bet could we make? I agree to any terms. If the Sox keep winning, there's no bet really.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 6, 2019 22:02:21 GMT -5
What kind of bet could we make? I agree to any terms. If the Sox keep winning, there's no bet really. I'll bet that the Red Sox never trade Mookie before he's a free agent under any circumstances.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 22:04:55 GMT -5
If the Sox keep winning, there's no bet really. I'll bet that the Red Sox never trade Mookie before he's a free agent under any circumstances. I'm not sure, probably not. Especially if they contend this year. Betting on sports is too unpredictable. Too many variables.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 6, 2019 22:07:43 GMT -5
If we're out of the playoff race at the deadline in 2020, then you have an argument, but the fact that we keep talking about it while remaining very much in the race in 2019 is freaking insane.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 6, 2019 22:08:42 GMT -5
I'd have a better chance of being a professional baseball player than TB getting Mookie. There is no chance-- none-- none- that TB gets him. TB doesn't get a player like Mookie with his contract. They'd be renting him essentially. TB "renting Mookie? Do you know who General Anthony Clement McAuliffe was?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 22:43:23 GMT -5
If we're out of the playoff race at the deadline in 2020, then you have an argument, but the fact that we keep talking about it while remaining very much in the race in 2019 is freaking insane. I don't think so, most value comes from giving away a player with more than one year of service. Wouldn't you agree?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 7, 2019 23:23:31 GMT -5
One guy who might have a significant effect on the perceived “need” for a bullpen arm: Josh Taylor.
He’s sporting a “meh” 4.15 ERA after tonight’s stellar outing, but that belies his peripherals, with a 1.76 FIP and 3.05 xFIP. He’s been killed by a .444 BABIP, which is due for about 120 points of regression, even if he’s still giving up some hard contact. His 13 K/9 and (surprisingly?) low 2.1 BB/9 are superb. With the entire back-end outside of Workman (a ridiculous 14 H in 40 innings) pitching very poorly lately, I’d imagine Taylor moves up the depth chart a bit. At the moment, he’s probably their second-best reliever, as Barnes stumbles his way through his yearly brutal stretch. Taylor can go multiple innings from the L with a terrific FB and a very good SL/CU hybrid-sorta pitch. I think getting (much) better performances from the starters, and more consistent offense (allowing the use of guys more suited to moo-up duty), will allow for some better second-half performances from Barnes et al. Still looks like they add an arm of some sort, maybe even promote Darwinzon again, but Taylor’s got a chance to be as good as any ‘pen arm they’ll add. They’re facing stiff competition for WC2 right now, and still seem ticketed for 88-90 wins. But they’re far from out of it. I think Taylor’s a key sleeper for the second half. Stabilizing the closer role might be his eventual contribution, with Workman a more traditional set-up man and Barnes re-establishing himself as the roving high-leverage guy.
They’re not out of it, they just need a few breaks. So many things have gone wrong, you’d think they’re due.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 11, 2019 11:22:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox are 4 & 5 vs Tampa Bay with 6 games coming up. This is where the math of the Red Sox season comes down to. The Red Sox need to go 5 & 1 in these games. 4 & 2 might be enough but I doubt it, certainly 3 & 3 will not be. I truly believe that DD needs to get the pitching in place to specifically win these head to head games vs Tampa Bay.
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