SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 11, 2019 12:23:26 GMT -5
I mean, answer me this: what is the motivation for trading Mookie Betts?
Are the wheels going to fall off over the next two weeks? They have 3 against the Dodgers, but then get the Jays and O's for 4 and 3. Month closes with key division games: 3 in TB, 4 at home vs NYY, 2 of a 3 game set vs TB that extends into August.
Looking forward, is the reason he's going to cost too much? The Red Sox have the highest payroll in the game. Why are they trading guys because of money?
I just don't see the scenario in which trading Mookie this year makes any sense or is even a plausible outcome. If you want to talk about the offseason or something, fine I guess, but that's something for the trade subforum.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Jul 11, 2019 13:00:32 GMT -5
We should feel bad for ever talking about trading Mookie. The Red Sox are not a small market team and Mookie is one of the 10 best players of his generation hands down, maybe in the top 5. He's 26. He won a World Series. He plays perfectly one of the hardest corner OF in the league. He's striking out less than he's walking. I need to stop typing because just talking about it makes me mad.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Jul 11, 2019 13:54:56 GMT -5
I don't see what the point is about even talking about selling or rebuilding. We're in the playoff hunt and our payroll is huge, they're going to go for it.
IMO the only future I see is us trying to win until it's clear we can't, at which point Dombrowski will be ousted and they'll bring in someone who has proven they can draft well and build a farm. Dombrowski has proven to be one of the worst in the game at those things, and perhaps that is because he has no interest in doing so, but regardless, I can't see us rebooting with him in town.
As for the Mookie stuff, it is laughable... Often in sports, perspective is skewed by "what have you done for me lately?" But in Mookie's case, "lately" only includes a few months. He's a generational talent. You keep those and let the rest fall into place.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Jul 11, 2019 23:28:24 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 12, 2019 2:24:48 GMT -5
We should feel bad for ever talking about trading Mookie. The Red Sox are not a small market team and Mookie is one of the 10 best players of his generation hands down, maybe in the top 5. He's 26. He won a World Series. He plays perfectly one of the hardest corner OF in the league. He's striking out less than he's walking. I need to stop typing because just talking about it makes me mad. It's probably not happening this year, but it's the reality of the situation. He expects to go to free agency. Makes me mad that we are talking about it too. The Sox honestly tried to sign this guy twice, the second offer was certainly not a bad one. It is what it is with this situation.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2019 19:59:22 GMT -5
Sale is the reason your big move is for Cashner, it really doesn’t matter what moves you make if he’s going to pitch like this the rest of the season. Him figuring out what we, is the only chance the Sox have to repeat. This is what I have been saying for a while. If sale continues to suck you are not going to make the playoffs. Ditto for AB and Mookie and JDM struggling this year.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2019 20:24:55 GMT -5
We have so many issues with this team I’m glad they didn’t make a big trade.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 14, 2019 2:55:39 GMT -5
I mean, answer me this: what is the motivation for trading Mookie Betts? Are the wheels going to fall off over the next two weeks? They have 3 against the Dodgers, but then get the Jays and O's for 4 and 3. Month closes with key division games: 3 in TB, 4 at home vs NYY, 2 of a 3 game set vs TB that extends into August. Looking forward, is the reason he's going to cost too much? The Red Sox have the highest payroll in the game. Why are they trading guys because of money? I just don't see the scenario in which trading Mookie this year makes any sense or is even a plausible outcome. If you want to talk about the offseason or something, fine I guess, but that's something for the trade subforum. The Red Sox have a finite budget as do the Yankees and every other team in MLB. The Red Sox have been out bid on free agents including home grown guys that they would have preferred to keep. They may be rich, but to say they'll 100% keep someone or sign someone because they're the Red Sox is not reality. They're currently the highest paid team in the majors which means they're already close to whatever budget they might have. Currently, it looks like they prefer to not blow past the luxury tax. If another team is willing to get stupid and give Mookie 35 over 12 I could very easily see the Red Sox passing, especially if they retain Martinez. The whole idea of the Red Sox trading Mookie is: A. They feel like this team has no chance at competing this season. B. They know what number Mookie wants, they won't go there, and know that other teams will. C. His value will never be higher and he's a talent that could reload the system. Mookie seems very adamant anyways about hitting free agent and signing with the team that offers him the most money. Theoretically, if we're arguing that the Red Sox have the money they should just be able to sign him back. That is, unless he gets a change of heart and signs an extension which is always the risk. I'm not actually even advocating trading him so to speak. I will just be highly disappointed if he walks in free agency. These are the things the front office should be well aware of. I meant to dig into first half numbers over the break, but haven't had time lately. Some quick concerning numbers I have about the Red Sox currently: W-L Rays: 54-40 A's: 52-41 Red Sox: 50-42 xW-xL Rays: 58-36 A's: 55-39 Red Sox: 51-41 Run Differential: Rays: +99 A's: +82 Red Sox: +56 Record vs winning teams: Rays: 27-29 A's: 32-24 Red Sox: 18-26 The Red Sox are 21-23 at home this season. They have 4 at home against the Jays which is likely going to put them above .500 at home, but it's not inspiring confidence that that will win these games since it's already the middle of July. They will sweep the Orioles on the road and then they have 3 on the road at Tampa then 4 at home against the Yankees then 3 (1 before the July 31st 4pm deadline) at home against the Rays. The Red Sox do have better numbers than the Rangers, Angels, and Indians, but both teams with better records ahead of them should be even further ahead. The Red Sox have roughly played as expected.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2019 6:50:19 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Jul 14, 2019 11:53:03 GMT -5
Answer: NUTS !
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2019 12:28:09 GMT -5
Well I have bad news: the Red Sox are unlikely to win 7 of their next 8 games. The good news is that it's bonkers to say they "almost need" to do that.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 14, 2019 12:57:10 GMT -5
Well I have bad news: the Red Sox are unlikely to win 7 of their next 8 games. The good news is that it's bonkers to say they "almost need" to do that. 7 of 8 isn't a lot to ask with 4 against the Jays and 3 against the Orioles coming up. They're incredibly awful. I see tonight as a confidence game, but it's not necessarily critical. It's the 14 game stretch that I worry about.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2019 15:47:27 GMT -5
Well I have bad news: the Red Sox are unlikely to win 7 of their next 8 games. The good news is that it's bonkers to say they "almost need" to do that. 7 of 8 isn't a lot to ask with 4 against the Jays and 3 against the Orioles coming up. They're incredibly awful. I see tonight as a confidence game, but it's not necessarily critical. It's the 14 game stretch that I worry about. The 2018 Red Sox would be unlikely to win 7 of 8 against the 2003 Tigers. That's just how baseball works. The TB games will certainly be important; the NYY games less so, since the division is probably out of reach. (Unless we sweep the 7 games against them!)
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 14, 2019 23:33:39 GMT -5
The clock is ticking on our playoff hopes.
Tick. Tock.
Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.
Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,645
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2019 23:42:23 GMT -5
There's still 69 games to go.
Erasing a 2.5 game deficit in that many games isn't exactly unheard of.
I mean that's kind of dramatic.
I still think the Sox will make the playoffs, but I say that without much enthusiasm - and honestly at this point it wouldn't shock me if they did miss.
If they do make it and the Yankees are the prize for winning the Wild Card game it wouldn't bother me too much if they lost the Wild Card game, because the way they play good teams this year doesn't give for a ton of hope and the way they've played the Yankees this year so far is kind of nauseating.
And if they're going to go down, it better not be against those MFYs.
But as far as making the playoffs, there's still plenty of time.
What worries me is that they could really exacerbate that deficit if they play like crap against the Yankees and they play NY a lot in the next couple of weeks along with Tampa who they got off to a great start against but have not played well against since. That's a tough two week stretch of games.
If they survive that then yeah, I think they'll make it. The schedule really lightens up after that, and that's where they'll make their hay.
But if they play like crap, they'll fall a good 5 or 6 games out and then I'd be really concerned about making the playoffs. I'm not there yet.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 15, 2019 0:36:46 GMT -5
Let's do the math after this dreadful loss to LA
50-43 - 93 games played, 69 to go.
To get to 90 wins, they need 40 - so 40-29 (.580 baseball). To get to 93 wins, 43 - 26 (.623 baseball).
They need those 7 wins against Toronto and Baltimore, because 14 straight games against MFY and Tampa follow.
Let's see where things are after the 7 hopeful gimmes, then after the following 14 true test.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 0:41:40 GMT -5
There's still 69 games to go. Erasing a 2.5 game deficit in that many games isn't exactly unheard of. I mean that's kind of dramatic. I still think the Sox will make the playoffs, but I say that without much enthusiasm - and honestly at this point it wouldn't shock me if they did miss. If they do make it and the Yankees are the prize for winning the Wild Card game it wouldn't bother me too much if they lost the Wild Card game, because the way they play good teams this year doesn't give for a ton of hope and the way they've played the Yankees this year so far is kind of nauseating. And if they're going to go down, it better not be against those MFYs. But as far as making the playoffs, there's still plenty of time. What worries me is that they could really exacerbate that deficit if they play like crap against the Yankees and they play NY a lot in the next couple of weeks along with Tampa who they got off to a great start against but have not played well against since. That's a tough two week stretch of games. If they survive that then yeah, I think they'll make it. The schedule really lightens up after that, and that's where they'll make their hay. But if they play like crap, they'll fall a good 5 or 6 games out and then I'd be really concerned about making the playoffs. I'm not there yet. It’s not that they’re only 2.5 back. They’re 2.5 out with another team 2.0 ahead of them, another 0.5 behind them and another 2.5 behind the Sox. It would be one thing if they had to catch 1 team, but another when it’s a crowded field.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Jul 15, 2019 5:42:48 GMT -5
Let's do the math after this dreadful loss to LA 50-43 - 93 games played, 69 to go. To get to 90 wins, they need 40 - so 40-29 (.580 baseball). To get to 93 wins, 43 - 26 (.623 baseball). They need those 7 wins against Toronto and Baltimore, because 14 straight games against MFY and Tampa follow.Let's see where things are after the 7 hopeful gimmes, then after the following 14 true test. They need to go 5 - 2 at minimum. Then DD has to have the best possible pitching staff in place to beat Tampa Bay & Cora has to have the best starters lined up to beat Tampa Bay. The season rest on these 3 things. Oh yea, and then the Pitchers have to perform. But if DD doesn't assemble a staff to specifically beat Tampa & Cora doesn't line up the best Starters then they've failed miserably. They've got to do their job & give the team a chance.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Jul 15, 2019 6:12:51 GMT -5
I just think they A’s and Indians benefit more due to the schedule. We’re talking about an easy 7 game stretch we have to take advantage of but you look at Cleveland they have 14 straight vs Detroit, Toronto and KC. They have Clevinger back, Ramirez is heating up, Salazar is throwing minor league games and it’s possible to get back Kluber and Carrasco. I know they seem to be walking a tight rope with money as well but I think they could add a bat and be set pretty good. I think there is a good chance they blow it up this offseason but make one more push.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,645
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2019 8:07:00 GMT -5
I just think they A’s and Indians benefit more due to the schedule. We’re talking about an easy 7 game stretch we have to take advantage of but you look at Cleveland they have 14 straight vs Detroit, Toronto and KC. They have Clevinger back, Ramirez is heating up, Salazar is throwing minor league games and it’s possible to get back Kluber and Carrasco. I know they seem to be walking a tight rope with money as well but I think they could add a bat and be set pretty good. I think there is a good chance they blow it up this offseason but make one more push. I look at it this way. At some point if you want to be the best you have to beat the best. No schedule excuses because if you have any aspirations of winning the World Series you have to be able to beat the top tier teams. And this is where the Sox have failed miserably thus far this season. If they can't beat the good teams at some point then they simply don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyways. They'd just be roadkill if they got there. At some point if the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs they have to beat the iron of the league, so that they're not paper tigers themselves, so no schedule excuses. Find a way to win. It would help to stop giving games away like they did last night after they had rallied to put themselves in position to take it.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 9:42:58 GMT -5
Extrapolated from another post, but thought it would fit in this thread: MLB Relative Power Index (RPI) - 2019 EXPW-L Rays: 60-35 Athletics: 56-38 Red Sox: 51-42 Rangers: 49-45 Angels: 49-45 Indians: 48-43 The Rays and the Athletics have a much better run differential than the Red Sox. TB - +102 A's - +83 RS - +53 The Red Sox have been terrible at home to the tune of 21-24. Against better competition the Red Sox are 19-28. The Rays are 29-30 The Athletics are 32-24 Playoff odds given to the Red Sox: Baseball Reference gives the Red Sox a 17.7% chance of making the playoffs: www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-playoff-odds.shtmlFangraphs have them at 53.5%: www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-oddsfivethirtyeight have them at 38%: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ Baseball Prospectus have them at 33.4% (not updated after yesterday's loss): legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 16, 2019 21:58:01 GMT -5
We could be sellers by the end of the week.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 16, 2019 22:07:34 GMT -5
We are 51-44. 95 games played, 67 to go.
To reach 90 wins, we need to go 39-28 - .582 pace. To reach 92 wins, 41-26- .612 pace.
Our home record is 22-25 - we have 34 home games and 33 road games remaining.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,645
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2019 22:15:26 GMT -5
We could be sellers by the end of the week. Dude, you sing the same tune all the time. What the hell are the Red Sox selling exactly??? How anxious are other teams to get their hands on Porcello? What do you really think Brock Holt or an injured Mitch Moreland is going to fetch in a deal? They don't have anything compelling to sell without wrecking their 2020 season even if they did "sell".
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,645
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2019 22:18:21 GMT -5
I still think the Red Sox are going to get beat up pretty good until Aug 4th. I think they'll do alright against Toronto (despite tonight) and Baltimore but TB and NY for 2 weeks will hurt a lot. Then when everybody is ready to give up the Sox will finally go on their best tear of the season.
Will it be enough even if they do? The one thing I'm starting to circle back to is that the pitching is flat out bad, in the rotation and in the bullpen.
If Sale doesn't become dominant Sale and Porcello doesn't pitch better, it's going to be really hard to see them making the post-season. It can happen, but if it doesn't the pitching flat out isn't good enough.
|
|
|