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5/2-5/5 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 5, 2019 9:16:13 GMT -5
Pre-season projection: .231/.292/.409 Updated projection: .240/.307/.453 Today: .242/.310/.463
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2019 9:36:47 GMT -5
If I voted for the All Star game, I'd choose Vazquez as the catcher.
Also, if Chavis doesn't graduate as a prospect, I wonder where he'd be in the top 100 by mid season? I can't remember how many PAs it takes to graduate.
edit- he'll probably graduate before that (130 PA), but I still would love to know the answer.
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Post by humanbeingbean on May 5, 2019 10:10:35 GMT -5
If I voted for the All Star game, I'd choose Vazquez as the catcher. Also, if Chavis doesn't graduate as a prospect, I wonder where he'd be in the top 100 by mid season? I can't remember how many PAs it takes to graduate. edit- he'll probably graduate before that (130 PA), but I still would love to know the answer. It’s amazing that Gary Sanchez has a 189 wRC+ with 11 homers and 0.9 fWAR; Vazquez: 98 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. Really a great start for Vazqy so far.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 5, 2019 11:06:42 GMT -5
I love it , the media the Red Sox have the 30 ranked minor league system. We bring up one guy Chavis and he is kicking ass from the minor leagues. Keep talking about our system. You can have all these guys ranked in the top 100 but it’s just looks good on paper . I rather have one guy that can graduate and produce. They never have a ranking for that. i agree, but to be fair, it was a lot of prospect rankings that had us so low. If Chavis can be a regular (a lot has to still go right) it would be a nice boost.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 5, 2019 11:21:09 GMT -5
I love it , the media the Red Sox have the 30 ranked minor league system. We bring up one guy Chavis and he is kicking ass from the minor leagues. Keep talking about our system. You can have all these guys ranked in the top 100 but it’s just looks good on paper . I rather have one guy that can graduate and produce. They never have a ranking for that. Would you trade Chavis for Vlad Jr, today?
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 5, 2019 11:49:35 GMT -5
Betts sits. If he needs rest, bottom 3rd Sat woulda been good time.
Swihart RF. Finally gets another start. AZ @ COL
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Post by incandenza on May 5, 2019 12:05:39 GMT -5
Pre-season projection: .231/.292/.409 Updated projection: .240/.307/.453 Today: .242/.310/.463 And that's the most conservative of the projections listed at fangraphs. The others have OPS ranges from .780 to .792, wRC+ ranges from 106 to 109.
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Post by manfred on May 5, 2019 12:06:14 GMT -5
I love it , the media the Red Sox have the 30 ranked minor league system. We bring up one guy Chavis and he is kicking ass from the minor leagues. Keep talking about our system. You can have all these guys ranked in the top 100 but it’s just looks good on paper . I rather have one guy that can graduate and produce. They never have a ranking for that. i agree, but to be fair, it was a lot of prospect rankings that had us so low. If Chavis can be a regular (a lot has to still go right) it would be a nice boost. The crazy thing about the prospects rankings is that the Sox are “punished” for farm system success: look at the top-5 in the lineup today: age 24, 26, (JD), 22, 23. This without Mookie, 26. So it is easy to imagine a lineup of: Benny (24) Mookie (26) XMan (26) Devers (22) Chavis (23) All young and home grown. I don’t care what the farm system looks like when it has produced that in the last few years. Would it be better if the Sox had Benny at Pawtucket, Devers and Chavis at Portland? They’d definitely have a top farm system then.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2019 12:16:31 GMT -5
i agree, but to be fair, it was a lot of prospect rankings that had us so low. If Chavis can be a regular (a lot has to still go right) it would be a nice boost. The crazy thing about the prospects rankings is that the Sox are “punished” for farm system success: look at the top-5 in the lineup today: age 24, 26, (JD), 22, 23. This without Mookie, 26. So it is easy to imagine a lineup of: Benny (24) Mookie (26) XMan (26) Devers (22) Chavis (23) All young and home grown. I don’t care what the farm system looks like when it has produced that in the last few years. Would it be better if the Sox had Benny at Pawtucket, Devers and Chavis at Portland? They’d definitely have a top farm system then. It's a nice theory, but the most important aspect of prospects is that they can either be traded or league minimum replacements for departing free agents or depth in case of injuries to boost the team when needed. Only Chavis fits that description of all of those players. Everyone else is counted on as a major part of the team and thus cannot push the team higher like Chavis is now. I wonder how long it takes for Chavis to start affecting the Red Sox' decision on a possible JDM opt-out. He could also replace both Moreland and Pearce next year.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 5, 2019 12:55:59 GMT -5
Would you trade Chavis for Vlad Jr, today? Does it have to be that extreme? Would you trade Chavis for Bo Bichette or Jo Adell?
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 5, 2019 13:21:53 GMT -5
It would be lovely if we got another super start from Porch today. Hopefully there is no hangover from his eight innings last week.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2019 13:23:10 GMT -5
Corrected and expanded analysis of Chavis' zone approach below.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 5, 2019 13:27:07 GMT -5
that first at bat was a long one. Let's get out of the Rick !!!
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2019 13:31:14 GMT -5
Let's go ump.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 5, 2019 13:34:09 GMT -5
the future is bright for him....as far as raking.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on May 5, 2019 13:38:18 GMT -5
Chavis juuust missed another homer
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 5, 2019 13:40:22 GMT -5
Chavis juuust missed another homer Obviously he will regress but it’s incredibly fun when even his fly ball outs seem like he made gargantuan-type contact.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2019 14:00:42 GMT -5
108 mph out for JBJ. He's starting to get snake bitten, which is better than just not hitting the ball hard ever.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 5, 2019 14:06:22 GMT -5
108 mph out for JBJ. He's starting to get snake bitten, which is better than just not hitting the ball hard ever. That’s great news. He was snakebit on hard hit balls for about a month before he started raking in 2018. Deja vu all over again? Another annual streak from JBJ would compensate for a slump elsewhere in the lineup. If no such slump occurs elsewhere, what a lineup that would be in terms of making up for early April.
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Post by telson13 on May 5, 2019 14:10:47 GMT -5
The book on Chavis is that he has a hole in the top of the zone.
On 92 pitches in the middle and lower third of the zone:
68 swung at (.739) 54 made contact (.794) 35 AB with a 1.229 SA.
He seems to have no difference
On just 22 pitches in the top third:
13 swung at (.591) 3 made contact (.231) 8 AB with .125 SA.
So that's definitely his weakness. He actually has a higher SA on all pitches outside the zone (.313).
The thing is, if you aim for that and miss high ... he's swung at just 6 of 34 pitches wild high.
If you miss into the middle of the zone, he's slugging 1.105.
It's quite possible that his hot start is partially a function of not facing pitchers with good enough command to successfully attack his weakness. However, BP has him facing pitchers just 3% below average (most guys have faced even easier pitching).
He seems to have at least some success laying off the high stuff, and you’re def right that mistakes in that area, for Chavis, either seem to result in walks high (his BB rate this year, including AAA, is over 15%), or the ball being crushed in the middle. He’s grown as a hitter quite a bit from his breakout season. And he already seems to be making an adjustment on the first plan of attack the league had for him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2019 14:14:36 GMT -5
Correction of earlier post (Brooks was including some ml games they had data for) with a lot more analysis: The book on Chavis is that he has a hole in the top of the zone. On 76 pitches in the middle and lower third of the zone: 56 swung at (.737) 45 made contact (.804) 29 AB with a 1.138 SA. On just 17 pitches in the top third: 8 swung at (.471). That's 2 swings on 8 with less than 2 strikes, and 6 for 9 with 2 strikes. 1 made contact (.125) 7 AB with a single. So that's definitely his weakness; he actually has a higher SA on all pitches outside the zone (.273).
But he seems to know it, given that he's actually taken more pitches there with 2 strikes than swung at pitches with less than 2.
He swings at far fewer pitches on the outer third (10 of 27, .370) with a .600 contact and 6 TB in 5 AB. He's taken 6 of 7 pitches in the upper outer ninth of the zone, so he seems to be smartly selective on outside pitches in general. The hole is really just up, and middle or in.
The thing is, if you aim for those two sectors and miss high ... he's swung at just 4 of 13 pitches (one for an out).
If you miss to the outside, as mentioned, he takes the strike 6 of 7 times, and if you miss inside, he's swing at just 2 of 6 and fouled them off.
If you miss low into the middle of the zone, that's 31 pitches, 28 contact, 15 AB with a 1.000 SA. It's quite possible that his hot start is partially a function of not facing pitchers with good enough command to successfully attack his weakness. However, BP has him facing pitchers just 3% below average (most guys have faced even easier pitching).
And how big a weakness is it, if a) he can hit everything else when he's going good like this, b) you can only exploit it if you get to 2 strikes, and c) you have two of the 9 zone sectors you have to hit, and if you don't elevate enough, you're dead meat?
Was he underated as a prospect because scouts would see him look bad on these pitches, and didn't consider how much of a weakness it really constituted? Keith Law was very low on him, and if he happened to see a game where he fanned twice on a pitch on this spot, he could come away thinking, well, that's an obvious hole that MLB pitchers will just exploit. But, no, actually, they really can't.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on May 5, 2019 14:23:17 GMT -5
10 pitch walk for Chavis...maybe I've been most impressed by the consistent quality of his at bats so far. He's laying off tough pitches that are balls pretty consistently, and obviously seeing the ball so well since the start of this year. I believe that is now the third time he's come back from an 0 - 2 count to work a walk.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2019 14:26:26 GMT -5
A bit more on Chavis: in the actual weak spot (up in the zone, and middle or in), he's only seen 1 pitch with 0 strikes and taken it, has swung at 2 of 3 with 1 strike, and swung at 5 of 6 with two strikes. That tells you that opposing pitchers are waiting till 2 strikes to attack him there, which also tells you that they don't think they can throw it there consistently. The risk of throwing to that spot and failing to elevate sufficiently is only worth taking if you can get an out.
So the key to his success so far has been his ability to destroy pitches that miss low to his weak spot.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on May 5, 2019 14:47:38 GMT -5
JD's power has gone missing, but ill take the clutch rbi single
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Post by telson13 on May 5, 2019 14:55:33 GMT -5
10 pitch walk for Chavis...maybe I've been most impressed by the consistent quality of his at bats so far. He's laying off tough pitches that are balls pretty consistently, and obviously seeing the ball so well since the start of this year. I believe that is now the third time he's come back from an 0 - 2 count to work a walk. With the hot start, up-the middle/all-fields approach, I was just thinking that Chavis as a hitter kinda reminds me of Trevor Story. Story’s a good defensive SS, so there’s a big difference in value there, but Chavis at a similar age seems to be a more advanced hitter, better at avoiding pitches he can’t handle up (lower K rate) and a more discerning eye (I think Story had a BB rate a little under 10% his first year?). But their size, swing, big power, approach, hard contact...similar. Ad frankly, that’s a pretty damn good hitter to look like, especially if you’re putting up better peripherals at the same age.
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