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7/12-7/14 Red Sox vs. Dodgers Series Thread
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2019 17:51:09 GMT -5
Chris Sale is 5th in the majors for xFIP including his absolute garbage start to the season and is striking out almost 13 and walking 2 per 9. His results have been average, but if he had the results of Justin Verlander, no one would be complaining and he hasn't even been as good as Sale. Sale's SIERA is 3.04, 3rd in the majors. So all we need to do is wait. Also, Eovaldi, Hernandez and Houck are all on the way. Why are we talking about the rotation in the bullpen thread? Sale's season breaks down into three chunks. He had the short-ST hangover that everyone else had; his first 5 1/2 starts were awful, OK, great but unlucky, bad, and OK.
His 6th start, on April 28th was a disaster through the first 2 innings. He seemed to settle down in the 3rd and 4th, ending each with a GDP grounder, but they had expected BA's of .518 (with an EV of 107) and .605 (93). He was lucky ... Statcast giveth and Stacast taketh away. No cherry-picking here!
In the 5th inning he turned into Chris F****** Sale. It's not true that he called in all his fielders except Xander and Mitch Moreland, but he could have: 5 K (4 swinging), 3 GB to SS, 1 to P, 1 BB.
Over those three innings and his next nine starts, he was the same Chris Sale we had seen at his best in his previous two Sox seasons. (xwOBA / wOBA)
.218 / .234, 13 GS, June 4 to August 13th, 2017. 2.29 ERA,
.189 / .183, 10 GS, June 8 to August 12th, 2018. 0.69 ERA. He was shut down after 9 starts and came back and fanned 12 of 15 hitters, the highest K% in MLB history for a game with 10 or more K. .216 / .215, 9.5 GS, April 28th to June 15. 1.99 ERA. On May 14, he fanned 17 of 24 hitters, the highest K% in MLB history for a game with 13 or more K. But he went 2-2 (plus a loss in the turnaround game) instead of 8-2 and 7-1 like he did the previous two years. The team went just 5-4. After his great run in 2017, he had two awful starts and then alternated great, then awful over six. He had a .307 xwOBA, which is a bit better than average, but that was .170 over three starts and .394 over five.
He was of course shut down after his great run in 2018. He made 4 more regular season starts, ramping up his pitch count, and was never great again. This year, he had two starts of .287 and .305 following the great run, which is solid but not Chris Sale. He then had his worst start in a Sox uni other than opening day of this year, against Toronto. So this will be worth watching.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2019 18:10:54 GMT -5
Dodgers xwOBA+ against a pitcher of Chris Sale's caliber. This is relative to their overall wOBA the last four years.
80 Taylor 84 Turner 94 Freese 77 Bellinger 98 Pollock 78 Muncy 72 Seager 126 Hernandez 95 Barnes Hernandez has had success in a small sample size against guys including Will Smith and Josh Hader.
The key thing here is that none of their LHB hit good / great LHP and two of their best RHB are guys who fatten their LHP numbers against lesser guys. Sox versus Stripling-caliber guys: 99 Betts 81 Devers 95 Bogaerts 96 Martinez 85 Beinintendi 91 Vazquez 100 Holt n/a Leon 85 Bradley The apparent reverse split is interesting and worth looking into. Holt may no longer be accurate given the Axe bat mods.
"n/a" is short for "who cares?".
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:11:04 GMT -5
Chris Sale is 5th in the majors for xFIP including his absolute garbage start to the season and is striking out almost 13 and walking 2 per 9. His results have been average, but if he had the results of Justin Verlander, no one would be complaining and he hasn't even been as good as Sale. Sale's SIERA is 3.04, 3rd in the majors. So all we need to do is wait. Also, Eovaldi, Hernandez and Houck are all on the way. Why are we talking about the rotation in the bullpen thread? Sale's season breaks down into three chunks. He had the short-ST hangover that everyone else had; his first 5 1/2 starts were awful, OK, great but unlucky, bad, and OK.
His 6th start, on April 28th was a disaster through the first 2 innings. He seemed to settle down in the 3rd and 4th, ending each with a GDP grounder, but they had expected BA's of .518 (with an EV of 107) and .605 (93). He was lucky ... Statcast giveth and Stacast taketh away. No cherry-picking here!
In the 5th inning he turned into Chris F****** Sale. It's not true that he called in all his fielders except Xander and Mitch Moreland, but he could have: 5 K (4 swinging), 3 GB to SS, 1 to P, 1 BB.
Over those three innings and his next nine starts, he was the same Chris Sale we had seen at his best in his previous two Sox seasons. (xwOBA / wOBA)
.218 / .234, 13 GS, June 4 to August 13th, 2017. 2.29 ERA,
.189 / .183, 10 GS, June 8 to August 12th, 2018. 0.69 ERA. He was shut down after 9 starts and came back and fanned 12 of 15 hitters, the highest K% in MLB history for a game with 10 or more K. .216 / .215, 9.5 GS, April 28th to June 15. 1.99 ERA. On May 14, he fanned 17 of 24 hitters, the highest K% in MLB history for a game with 13 or more K. But he went 2-2 (plus a loss in the turnaround game) instead of 8-2 and 7-1 like he did the previous two years. The team went just 5-4. After his great run in 2017, he had two awful starts and then alternated great, then awful over six. He had a .307 xwOBA, which is a bit better than average, but that was .170 over three starts and .394 over five.
He was of course shut down after his great run in 2018. He made 4 more regular season starts, ramping up his pitch count, and was never great again. This year, he had two starts of .287 and .305 following the great run, which is solid but not Chris Sale. He then had his worst start in a Sox uni other than opening day of this year, against Toronto. So this will be worth watching.
I only brought Sale up because there were complaints about Sale not being Sale and it's killing the team and the bullpen. My answer to what to do about it is just wait.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 13, 2019 18:22:02 GMT -5
i already dislike this ump
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:23:45 GMT -5
This ump has really squeezed Sale so far. At least 3-4 borderline pitches in 2 batters not called.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:27:32 GMT -5
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 13, 2019 18:28:10 GMT -5
so unlucky
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Post by cheers on Jul 13, 2019 18:30:32 GMT -5
This ump has really squeezed Sale so far. At least 3-4 borderline pitches in 2 batters not called. His zone has been tight, but not egregiously so - as long as it goes both ways. Sale not hustling on that Bellinger "hit" is a much bigger problem.
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
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Post by cutz on Jul 13, 2019 18:31:03 GMT -5
Sale didn't get off the mound fast enough and why is Vazquez playing first? because he didn't stretch toward the throw.
Ump has squeezed Sale.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 13, 2019 18:31:26 GMT -5
OK. Well, what are you gonna do ?
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 13, 2019 18:31:33 GMT -5
Nice catch, Sandy. It was meaningless because the run was scoring anyway, but how about catching balls that the outfielders throw home? We’re not asking you to, you know, hit your weight or anything.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:33:18 GMT -5
A bullshit walk, a 51 mph infield single for Bellinger and an 84 mph hit where Pollack probably felt lucky to make contact on lead to the first run. Expected number of runs that inning was probably around 0.10. Typical for Sale's season.
Though it's also of note that he made a rare fielding mistake by not being more urgent on the infield hit.
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Post by cheers on Jul 13, 2019 18:33:54 GMT -5
Sale didn't get off the mound fast enough and why is Vazquez playing first? because he didn't stretch toward the throw. Ump has squeezed Sale. Because we live in an alternate universe that includes Vazquez' bat being indispensable (and it kinda is)?
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 13, 2019 18:36:45 GMT -5
Wow. Bunt single.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 13, 2019 18:36:52 GMT -5
Hahahahahahaha
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 13, 2019 18:37:00 GMT -5
did the pitcher give him a stare down ? If he did, eff you !!
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:37:52 GMT -5
Sale didn't get off the mound fast enough and why is Vazquez playing first? because he didn't stretch toward the throw. Ump has squeezed Sale. Because we live in an alternate universe that includes Vazquez' bat being indispensable (and it kinda is)? Vazquez has a higher OPS than Mookie this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:40:03 GMT -5
This ump has really squeezed Sale so far. At least 3-4 borderline pitches in 2 batters not called. His zone has been tight, but not egregiously so - as long as it goes both ways. Sale not hustling on that Bellinger "hit" is a much bigger problem. Xander's 3rd strike shows it's not going both ways.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 13, 2019 18:40:50 GMT -5
hes safe
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 13, 2019 18:41:53 GMT -5
yea, looked challenge worthy. but at the same time they rarely seem to overturn ones like that that are so close
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:43:35 GMT -5
I hate Devers bunting when he's hitting so many home runs to any part of the park. But that's fine for him to try to steal with 2 strikes and 2 outs to JDM.
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
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Post by cutz on Jul 13, 2019 18:44:01 GMT -5
I thought Devers was safe, but not sure enough to overturn. Devers could've slid better though.
Sox are gonna get to Strippling.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 18:49:29 GMT -5
That strikeout of Hernandez looked exactly like the strikeout of Machado to win the World Series.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 13, 2019 18:53:50 GMT -5
I hate Devers bunting when he's hitting so many home runs to any part of the park. But that's fine for him to try to steal with 2 strikes and 2 outs to JDM. i like it in the first inning, with the X and JD coming against this pitcher.
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Post by cheers on Jul 13, 2019 18:57:40 GMT -5
That 12-6 slow curve that Stripling throws just has to be deceptive as hell. Nobody seems to be able to do anything with it, even when it ends up middle/middle.
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