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Red Sox Acquire Andrew Cashner
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2019 12:49:12 GMT -5
“I know these guys are far off, but it hurt. When they were coming up with these names, they weren’t guys that we were hoping they’d asked for, but when an opportunity comes to help out the big league team with a starting pitcher, it’s tough to say no,” said Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero. “We were able to create value quickly with these two guys. That’s a tip of the cap [to the international scouting department].” www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/07/14/speier/m2eG7SpO1sdvmCGwvvVCOO/story.html?event=event25The Red Sox FO could very well be a little disappointed they had to trade these guys, but this feels like it's mostly posturing.
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Post by 29sonski on Jul 14, 2019 13:08:52 GMT -5
“I know these guys are far off, but it hurt. When they were coming up with these names, they weren’t guys that we were hoping they’d asked for, but when an opportunity comes to help out the big league team with a starting pitcher, it’s tough to say no,” said Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero. “We were able to create value quickly with these two guys. That’s a tip of the cap [to the international scouting department].” www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/07/14/speier/m2eG7SpO1sdvmCGwvvVCOO/story.html?event=event25The Red Sox FO could very well be a little disappointed they had to trade these guys, but this feels like it's mostly posturing. Valid point. The RS organization is not going to claim it took the O’s to the cleaners. Still, it confirms Speier’s assertion that there may be more value than is generally known/appreciated at the lowest levels of the farm (especially international prospects).
And, it makes sense that teams are scouting each other more carefully/thoroughly at those levels nowadays. Would you suspect Baltimore made this deal without some internal intel on Prado and Romero?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2019 14:52:03 GMT -5
“I know these guys are far off, but it hurt. When they were coming up with these names, they weren’t guys that we were hoping they’d asked for, but when an opportunity comes to help out the big league team with a starting pitcher, it’s tough to say no,” said Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero. “We were able to create value quickly with these two guys. That’s a tip of the cap [to the international scouting department].” www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/07/14/speier/m2eG7SpO1sdvmCGwvvVCOO/story.html?event=event25The Red Sox FO could very well be a little disappointed they had to trade these guys, but this feels like it's mostly posturing. My best guess of the reality of the situation is that both these things are true: 1) If you're in charge of looking for and signing and developing prospects, you're going to feel attached to them and sincerely disappointed to lose ones which you only signed in the first place because you saw some potential in them. 2) They're 17 and total lottery tickets and it's a pretty long shot that they ever turn into something.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2019 15:55:27 GMT -5
Pedro -- you've voiced your opinions on Henry being cheap numerous times now. You're not saying anything new at this point and its shifting the intended focus of the threads elsewhere. Please let it go unless you have something new to add to that particular discussion. When the Red Sox say they might be done after only adding Cashner, that adds to the discussion, doesn't it? Add- Sorry for bringing it into the Cashner thread. Next time I'll drag it into the mid acquisition season thread (or another thread), but the reports were there right after the Cashner trade. I was only highlighting what the Sox keep telling us.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 14, 2019 16:42:07 GMT -5
per Sean McAdam - "After obtaining Andrew Cashner and with the pending move of Eovaldi to bullpen, I asked Dombrowski if Red Sox might stand pat now. "We might,'' he said." Adding Eovaldi is going to require a corresponding move to the 40 man roster to get him back on it before adding him to the active roster. I anticipate there is another trade coming of someone on the 40 man for some type of prospect to open up a spot. I could see any of the following being traded; Nunez, Travis, Lin, Hernandez, Curletta Poyner, Kelley, Weber, Smith, Taylor No
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 14, 2019 16:48:25 GMT -5
I lived to age 43 before I saw this franchise win a ring. Now 4 in 14 years. I am not throwing any stones at Henry, DD or anybody else. I am neither spoiled or entitled, and if this they dont make it 5 in 15 years, I am just gonna enjoy X and Raffy breakout seasons and let hope spring eternal.
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Post by jimmydugan on Jul 14, 2019 17:03:32 GMT -5
I've got a ton of Cashner analysis which I'll put up before his first start.
The biggest news: based on xwOBA, his last 5 starts are the second best stretch of starting pitching this year by anyone on the roster other than Sale, next to Price from May 20 to June 8. And there are real changes in his pitch mix, movement (e.g., 2" extra on his slider), and horizontal release points.
The other remarkable thing is that he's had insane karma on balls in play. And the Orioles rank in the bottom 3 of MLB in team defense metrics! He has been helped in this stretch of 5 starts (.258 xwOBA, .187 wOBA) by having Keon Broxton in CF and rookie Anthony Santander in RF, and those guys are really good, but he also appears to have had a lot of fly balls hit close to his fielders (which is very unlikely to be a skill) and lots of line drives hit right at fielders (which is definitely not a skill). He's had a lot of success with the shift in his last 5 starts, and getting guys to hit into the shift may well be a skill (Porcello seems to have it when he's going well).
I'll let Eric get into the weeds, because obviously you're more qualified..but you weren't kidding about the last 5 starts: 1.41 ERA. 31 ERA- 2.55 FIP. 54 FIP- BB% 3.4 % The way I see it - Best case scenario: He continues what he's done in the last couple of months. He's a top candidate for the 5th starter role in 2020. Most likely: He gives 4-6 mediocre-just abv avg innings for the rest of the season. Sox lose <2m. Worst case: He's garbage for the next month. Sox cut him. It has an immaterial effect on the playoff race and the future of the Red Sox.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 14, 2019 20:33:14 GMT -5
Adding Eovaldi is going to require a corresponding move to the 40 man roster to get him back on it before adding him to the active roster. I anticipate there is another trade coming of someone on the 40 man for some type of prospect to open up a spot. I could see any of the following being traded; Nunez, Travis, Lin, Hernandez, Curletta Poyner, Kelley, Weber, Smith, Taylor No Neither of the two Hernandezes
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2019 20:53:19 GMT -5
They traded for a #5 starter, which is what they needed. Let's be honest here - your playoff rotation is Sale-Price-Porcello-ERod in some combination, and if one of those first two guys sucks, you're not winning anyway. They didn't need to go get Bumgarner or someone like that, just someone to justify moving Eovaldi to the bullpen.
It could very well be that getting a rental 5th starter and moving Eovaldi to the bullpen was a cheaper option (trade-wise) than trading for a rental RP, so the idea has some merit.
Also, everyone here seems to be forgetting that Darwinzon also threw out of the bullpen in Arizona and was gross there too: 11.1-8-3-2-0-6-0-24. This isn't Travis Lakins getting promoted - this is a guy that could legitimately be a bullpen weapon.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 14, 2019 21:04:23 GMT -5
They traded for a #5 starter, which is what they needed. Let's be honest here - your playoff rotation is Sale-Price-Porcello-ERod in some I'll be brutally honest: If the playoffs start tomorrow not sure I want any part of Porcello as a starter.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 15, 2019 8:55:42 GMT -5
Pedro -- you've voiced your opinions on Henry being cheap numerous times now. You're not saying anything new at this point and its shifting the intended focus of the threads elsewhere. Please let it go unless you have something new to add to that particular discussion. When the Red Sox say they might be done after only adding Cashner, that adds to the discussion, doesn't it? Add- Sorry for bringing it into the Cashner thread. Next time I'll drag it into the mid acquisition season thread (or another thread), but the reports were there right after the Cashner trade. I was only highlighting what the Sox keep telling us. The "Henry is cheap" comments aren't really adding meaningful discussion to any of the threads at this point. Its a stance that most people on this board, including myself, don't understand and when you bring it up, it incites multiple posts from multiple posters. As a result, we've had this "is Henry cheap" debate in multiple threads (including here, here, here, and here) which is tangential to each of those threads. I think this debate would be best had in its own thread in the throwdown subform moving forward as its turned into an argumentative topic.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,067
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Post by cdj on Jul 15, 2019 9:34:10 GMT -5
They traded for a #5 starter, which is what they needed. Let's be honest here - your playoff rotation is Sale-Price-Porcello-ERod in some I'll be brutally honest: If the playoffs start tomorrow not sure I want any part of Porcello as a starter. If I’m being brutally honest I didn’t want porcello as a playoff starter last year lol
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Post by soxin8 on Jul 15, 2019 10:27:18 GMT -5
also if teams were being unreasonable probably best to jump on a deal you can make Doesn't this Dombrowski quote please everyone at this site? Something I don't believe anyone has mentioned about the spending, the Sox went to the highest level last year and sacrificed 10 draft spots in the first round and the bonus money that went with that drop. To rebuild in the draft, it certainly helps to try not to incur that penalty on a yearly basis. I wonder if the Orioles asked for Brainer and DDo said no.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2019 10:33:10 GMT -5
also if teams were being unreasonable probably best to jump on a deal you can make Doesn't this Dombrowski quote please everyone at this site? Something I don't believe anyone has mentioned about the spending, the Sox went to the highest level last year and sacrificed 10 draft spots in the first round and the bonus money that went with that drop. To rebuild in the draft, it certainly helps to try not to incur that penalty on a yearly basis. I wonder if the Orioles asked for Brainer and DDo said no. Probably not everybody on this site, but I for one appreciate it. It tells me he knows exactly where they stand with the farm system and where they need to draw the line. I keep hearing that Dombrowski can't build a farm system but I don't buy it. He never had a mandate to do so in Detroit. In Florida he rebuilt that farm system after he was forced to sell of the 1997 championship team. He reset the cupboard for the 2003 Marlins championship team. In Montreal he started the work on the farm system that got them into good shape and Duquette strengthened it and had them ready when he was GM. Of course Dombrowski did make the mistake of dealing some lefty fireballer for Mark Langston when they were going for it in 1989 and the 26 year fireballer with no control figured things out late and became Randy Johnson, but my point still stands. Dombrowski knows how to restock a farm system.
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Post by ivor on Jul 15, 2019 12:41:43 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 16, 2019 12:02:56 GMT -5
If Cashner continues to keep the ball in the park, he's probably a better option in the playoff rotation than Porcello.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 16, 2019 12:40:10 GMT -5
Pedro -- you've voiced your opinions on Henry being cheap numerous times now. You're not saying anything new at this point and its shifting the intended focus of the threads elsewhere. Please let it go unless you have something new to add to that particular discussion. When the Red Sox say they might be done after only adding Cashner, that adds to the discussion, doesn't it? Add- Sorry for bringing it into the Cashner thread. Next time I'll drag it into the mid acquisition season thread (or another thread), but the reports were there right after the Cashner trade. I was only highlighting what the Sox keep telling us. It adds to the discussion that they've potentially approached their budget. I think that's a fair topic as to whether or not the trade was the right move to make or not. I'll take Cashner as the 5th and Eovaldi to the pen as the potential fixes to this team. It doesn't cost much and I think both moves have potential to add value. You weren't going to get much better without supplying better prospects. Edit: The cheap part is not pertinent to the conversation.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2019 13:37:20 GMT -5
This is going to be mostly tables of data with less analysis than I'd like.
Cashner's season by results divides into 4 clear chunks. It turns out that you can see changes that marked each phase. Three of his first four starts were awful (one was very good), with a terrible K/W. Then he had four consistently OK ones where he pounded the strike zone but got hit hard. He altered his approach and had another three really bad with one good one mixed in. Then the new approach clicked (or was tweaked) and he had (in order) two very good, one subpar, and two tremendous starts. ConQ is xwOBA on balls made contact, while ConR is the wOBA on those balls. Next we have the xwOBA and +/- (standard deviation across the starts) in the phase, and then the overall ball in play karma where positive is good. (Note that your K/BB alters your Ball-in-play Karma measurement. ConQ-ConR is actually a better measure of that, but I just realized this today!) Dates GS K% BB% ConQ ConR xwOBA +/- Kar +/- 3/28 - 4/13 4 .101 .124 .441 .349 .427 .103 .071 .015 4/18 - 5/8 4 .258 .054 .405 .353 .316 .022 .036 .061 5/15 - 5/31 4 .152 .091 .422 .384 .382 .060 .028 .083 6/8 - 7/6 5 .151 .034 .284 .196 .258 .059 .071 .023 The karma really goes .092, .052, .038, .088. As I mentioned earlier, it's crazy, including the start-to-start consistency in phases 1 and 4. That's another post.
Here's his pitch breakdown, with each line being a phase. Mv is movement, Rel is Horizontal release point in inches, and Eff is Linear Weights Runs per 100 pitches, where positive is good. FB (4-seam). Rel of phases 2 through 4 are relative to his release point in phase 1.
Freq Vel Mv Rel Eff 42% 93.5 10.1 --- -0.8 41% 94.2 10.3 -0.5 -1.4 48% 94.7 9.6 -1.6 -1.9 51% 93.5 10.2 -2.0 2.1 Could throwing it less hard be related to better command and hence much better effectiveness in phase 4?
Change. For the rest of the pitches, Vel, Mv, and Rel are all relative to the FB in the same phase. That's how you do it! Freq Vel Mv Rel Eff 18% -9.5 5.6 -1.2 0.4 26% -8.9 5.3 -1.3 4.0 25% -8.8 5.2 -2.2 3.3 32% -9.4 5.4 -2.0 4.9
Ch relative velo is overrated (and smaller is better here). You can see the alteration in release points that marks the start of phase 3 more clearly here. This is a great pitch.
Slider
Freq Vel Mv Rel Eff 22% -7.3 9.8 2.6 -2.7 8% -7.0 9.8 2.5 1.3 10% -7.7 10.3 1.9 0.7 9% -9.0 11.9 1.9 2.3 Again, an altered release point for phase 3. The phase 4 slider is slower and breaks more and is quite a bit more effective.
Curve
Freq Vel Mv Rel Eff 11% -12.3 19.0 1.1 -0.3 17% -12.6 20.0 0.4 -1.5 14% -12.7 18.9 -0.1 -5.4 7% -13.7 19.0 -0.6 -1.7 Throwing it half as often is part of the phase 4 success, because it's not been a good pitch. Since it has a nice break, I'd guess he's prone to hanging it. Note that the release point alters but not really in a way consistent with the above.
Sinker / 2-seamer
Freq Vel Mv Rel Eff 7% -1.3 3.6 -1.1 5.9 8% -1.0 3.5 -1.3 0.2 2% -1.2 2.8 -1.6 0.7 2% -1.5 3.6 -0.2 2.9
The release point numbers are probably too noisy. Still a good pitch, one he could throw a bit more in the right situations. He may not be able to sustain the FB command I presume he's had the last 5 starts, but I think the floor here is still very solid.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 16, 2019 22:37:45 GMT -5
Still, a lot of his success this year is based on an improved home run rate, which is the last thing I expect to hold up in this offensive environment. Huh.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 26, 2019 23:10:00 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2019 0:14:19 GMT -5
also if teams were being unreasonable probably best to jump on a deal you can make Doesn't this Dombrowski quote please everyone at this site? Something I don't believe anyone has mentioned about the spending, the Sox went to the highest level last year and sacrificed 10 draft spots in the first round and the bonus money that went with that drop. To rebuild in the draft, it certainly helps to try not to incur that penalty on a yearly basis. I wonder if the Orioles asked for Brainer and DDo said no. And they still managed to pop three 2nd-round talents in Lugo, Cannon, and Song. And Lugo at 33, had they picked there, wouldn’t be a reach at all. Cannon might not either, for that matter. I think this draft is going to end up looking very good in 3-4 years. And that’s predicting Cannon to end up the least accomplished (though I have hope for him for sure). I really like Zeferjahn...I’m fairly convinced that his stuff will tick up in their system, and that the command issues (consistency especially) will improve enough for him to be a back-end starter. I also think on pure stuff/build he’s got 2a potential. I also think Chris Murphy could quickly follow as a LH version of Thad Ward. Bell and Cellucci are intriguing, and the guy I’m REALLY curious about is Loubier. For the money they spent, given his seemingly middling stuff...there’s gotta be some HUGE projection there in the team’s minds. He seems like the darkhorse candidate there, who could quickly have a Mata-like stuff quality breakout.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2019 0:41:16 GMT -5
“I know these guys are far off, but it hurt. When they were coming up with these names, they weren’t guys that we were hoping they’d asked for, but when an opportunity comes to help out the big league team with a starting pitcher, it’s tough to say no,” said Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero. “We were able to create value quickly with these two guys. That’s a tip of the cap [to the international scouting department].” www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/07/14/speier/m2eG7SpO1sdvmCGwvvVCOO/story.html?event=event25Prado was a guy I’d been watching all season cuz I love me some hit tool CFs. He really seemed like “a guy” to me. I was pretty bummed that they traded him, but I love the trade. They *need* starting pitching (as opposed to a quality RP, which I think is a luxury), and even if Cashner is just so-so (roughly his career-avg), he’s a guaranteed certainty to be better than what they’ve trotted out. It’s almost impossible for him to not improve the team (hell, tonight’s win might’ve been worth it alone...and I’m only half-kidding). And with the velo bump from last year (sitting 91-93 to 93-94), ditching the sinker (which had been bad), suppressing HR (maybe real?)...he’s got actual upside. Like, *real* upside. He functionally shut down a great offense tonight, and pitched deep doing it. Like Jimed said...he could be the 4 come playoff time. He’s pitched to good #3 level this year. If he keeps that up (or gets amped up to be actually playing for something, and actually steps it up)...that’s a helluva guy to slot into your 5 position. Maybe he’s a pillow contract for next year. Or he’s so good he prices himself out of the Sox’s territory. And as sad as I am to see Prado go (20 bb, 21 k...tough to watch leave), it’s 5 years at best and more like 7 til we would’ve seen him. That’s a gamble you take.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2019 0:54:09 GMT -5
Doesn't this Dombrowski quote please everyone at this site? Something I don't believe anyone has mentioned about the spending, the Sox went to the highest level last year and sacrificed 10 draft spots in the first round and the bonus money that went with that drop. To rebuild in the draft, it certainly helps to try not to incur that penalty on a yearly basis. I wonder if the Orioles asked for Brainer and DDo said no. Probably not everybody on this site, but I for one appreciate it. It tells me he knows exactly where they stand with the farm system and where they need to draw the line. I keep hearing that Dombrowski can't build a farm system but I don't buy it. He never had a mandate to do so in Detroit. In Florida he rebuilt that farm system after he was forced to sell of the 1997 championship team. He reset the cupboard for the 2003 Marlins championship team. In Montreal he started the work on the farm system that got them into good shape and Duquette strengthened it and had them ready when he was GM. Of course Dombrowski did make the mistake of dealing some lefty fireballer for Mark Langston when they were going for it in 1989 and the 26 year fireballer with no control figured things out late and became Randy Johnson, but my point still stands. Dombrowski knows how to restock a farm system. Yeah, it’s super-encouraging. It gives me a lot of faith in his confidence and ability to transition the team through the coming salary crunch. It also suggests to me (could be wishful dreaming) that he’s particularly enamored of/has high hopes for some of the guys near the top of the system. They might not be industry-wide projected MLB players, but my guess is DD feels pretty confident that at least a handful will fill meaningful or even impact roles within 2-4 years.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2019 1:27:29 GMT -5
Piggybacking on eric’s data/analysis, it certainly looks like the CH has become a serious weapon for Cashner. You can look at the history of his pitch values, and see that it’s by far the most effective pitch he’s ever thrown: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8782&position=PWhat’s particularly interesting to me is that, Eric, your data do seem to shown a progression of tinkering, and some pretty clear evidence for rationales for the differences in effectiveness (eg, FB velocity drop from phase 3 to 4 coinciding with improved command). And, the change in CH release/movement coupled with dramatically increased use leading to better results (and since CH are GB pitches, the dramatic rise in GB rate vs last year, which is important for a guy who doesn’t get a lot of whiffs...and also reduced FB rate and thus HR numbers). Lots to unpack there, but let’s hope this change (heh heh) is real and Cashner solidifies the 5 spot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2019 6:13:21 GMT -5
Piggybacking on eric’s data/analysis, it certainly looks like the CH has become a serious weapon for Cashner. You can look at the history of his pitch values, and see that it’s by far the most effective pitch he’s ever thrown: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8782&position=PWhat’s particularly interesting to me is that, Eric, your data do seem to shown a progression of tinkering, and some pretty clear evidence for rationales for the differences in effectiveness (eg, FB velocity drop from phase 3 to 4 coinciding with improved command). And, the change in CH release/movement coupled with dramatically increased use leading to better results (and since CH are GB pitches, the dramatic rise in GB rate vs last year, which is important for a guy who doesn’t get a lot of whiffs...and also reduced FB rate and thus HR numbers). Lots to unpack there, but let’s hope this change (heh heh) is real and Cashner solidifies the 5 spot. On an entirely unrelated note (more stuff later) ...
This was Cashner's 278th MLB game.
It was just the 21st time he took the mound with his team having a winning record.
It was just the 4th time that his team then proceeded to win the game.
It was the first time in his career that he was the winning pitcher for a winning team after April 19th.
4/19/15. Padres are 7-5, and beat the Cubs 5-2, with Cashner getting the W.
7/31/16. In his first start after a deadline trade to the 56-48 Marlins, he leaves leading 4-2 and gets a no-decision after Rodney gives up the lead in the 8th, in a a 5-4 walkoff victory.
4/2/19. He beats the Blue Jays for the 3-1 Orioles, pitching 6 shutout innings in a 2-1 victory.
He's now 3-10 in these games. In 2016 the Marlins lost the next 6 games he started, with him going 0-4, as they fell below and finished under .500.
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