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8/8-8/11 Red Sox vs. Angels Series Thread
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 11, 2019 17:38:07 GMT -5
Both? Edit: sorry, read too fast. I thought I read that as starter or reliever. Though xW-L tells a better story I think.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,003
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2019 18:02:10 GMT -5
Once again, nice Work, man. Barnes 4 saves 7 blown saves Red Sox 20 blown saves Yankees 20 blown saves Dodgers 21 blown saves Athletics 21 blown saves Cubs 21 blown saves Padres 22 blown saves Nationals 22 blown saves Mets 22 blown saves Can't think of a dumber stat to care about. Plus he’s never really functioned as their closer all that often so it’s not like he’s gonna be racking up saves He’s been bad lately though, that’s fair
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 11, 2019 18:03:16 GMT -5
Biggest troll on this board that's for sure. You know who I mean. Miserable
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Post by soxjim on Aug 11, 2019 18:15:56 GMT -5
Home runs are not a sign of aging. Whiff rate is a much better indicator, which Sale is still elite at. If Sale's HR/FB% regresses at all, he's the same damn pitcher he's always been. I don't agree. A Reduced f/b can absolutely be a leading forward indicator of home runs. As a general rule, as the pitcher ages in which he has thrown for several years, that fastball eventually declines and will be a leading indicator for a worse whiff rate. That's the concern with Sale.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 18:17:56 GMT -5
Edwin Diaz' two runs allowed today would have saved us They are the ONLY two runs that would have saved us, in fact.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 11, 2019 19:23:11 GMT -5
Very hard to imaging this team being only 4 games over with all the talent. But this is what it is. 30-12 gets them 92. It may be a pipe dream, but it is my pipe dream and I am sticking with it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2019 19:57:27 GMT -5
Very hard to imaging this team being only 4 games over with all the talent. But this is what it is. 30-12 gets them 92. It may be a pipe dream, but it is my pipe dream and I am sticking with it. How about saving that 30-12 until 2020 when it can matter? 30-12 probably won't get them into the playoffs this year anyways. Their pitching won't allow that to happen anyways. Not with Porcello and Cashner going every 5th day and their bullpen being what it is (and lack of clutch hitting). It's ok. Here's hoping they have a big rebound in 2020.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 11, 2019 20:02:00 GMT -5
Very hard to imaging this team being only 4 games over with all the talent. But this is what it is. 30-12 gets them 92. It may be a pipe dream, but it is my pipe dream and I am sticking with it. Man, I hope there is not gas in that pipe....but I do detect an odor.🙄
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Post by telson13 on Aug 11, 2019 20:31:45 GMT -5
The more losses we get the the rest of the season the better our draft pick will be! Let’s go! Seriously, I’m glad they avoided a wasteful deadline move when this team has clearly packed it in. They have great talent but too much of it is underperforming. This is an opportunity (like with Owings) to see what they have in-house and to figure out their offseason approach. I’m not saying tank, because this team could easily go on a ‘88-style 18-2 run. But it’s time to look big picture, think about next year (and that HUGE offseason), and focus on that. Basically, winning big or losing big are their ideal outcomes. Squeaking in, they certainly could make a run cuz they have the horses. And if the talent eval means a bunch of losses, that’s good too. What’s bad is continuing to putter along around .510-.520 and working the stars/starters hard to chase a longshot, then not knowing anything more about their options come season’s end.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 11, 2019 20:48:00 GMT -5
Home runs are not a sign of aging. Whiff rate is a much better indicator, which Sale is still elite at. If Sale's HR/FB% regresses at all, he's the same damn pitcher he's always been. I don't agree. A Reduced f/b can absolutely be a leading forward indicator of home runs. As a general rule, as the pitcher ages in which he has thrown for several years, that fastball eventually declines and will be a leading indicator for a worse whiff rate. That's the concern with Sale. Sale’s had lower average FB velo over a season before though, several times. I think there’s a good point there in that his whiff rate is still high. If his whiff rate were declining in concert with a HR/FB trend up, I’d be more concerned. I honestly think (about 2:1 or 3:1 odds) it’s much more about command and the juiced ball for him this year. His pull rate against is unchanged, suggesting it’s not guys getting around on him more (which you’d expect if it were a velo decline issue). And despite no real change in chase or zone contact rates, he’s giving up much more hard contact, much less soft contact, and has a high-for-him .312 BABIP. This despite that he’s has had one of his better SwStr% years this year. All of that says to me that he’s missing his spots more, and when he does, he’s getting ripped. I’m not ready yet to jump off the Sale bandwagon. I DO, like you, have concern for his FB velo long-term, because this certainly could be the beginning of a velo decline. He needs to go all Verlander and get it back lol. But seriously, his stuff is good enough even with some decline in velo that he can be very successful, provided he locates well.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 11, 2019 21:20:30 GMT -5
The more losses we get the the rest of the season the better our draft pick will be! Let’s go! Seriously, I’m glad they avoided a wasteful deadline move when this team has clearly packed it in. They have great talent but too much of it is underperforming. This is an opportunity (like with Owings) to see what they have in-house and to figure out their offseason approach. I’m not saying tank, because this team could easily go on a ‘88-style 18-2 run. But it’s time to look big picture, think about next year (and that HUGE offseason), and focus on that. Basically, winning big or losing big are their ideal outcomes. Squeaking in, they certainly could make a run cuz they have the horses. And if the talent eval means a bunch of losses, that’s good too. What’s bad is continuing to putter along around .510-.520 and working the stars/starters hard to chase a longshot, then not knowing anything more about their options come season’s end. I think you are right about a big offseason. I was just looking at the 40 man roster (with Owings now added) - I could envision these changes - Pedroia and Pearce gone (neither on the 40 man right now), Wright, Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, Brewer, Leon, Smith, Curletta, Weber, Cashner and Owings (11 from the current 40) (or maybe its just wishful thinking). It will indeed be interesting.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 11, 2019 21:54:30 GMT -5
Seriously, I’m glad they avoided a wasteful deadline move when this team has clearly packed it in. They have great talent but too much of it is underperforming. This is an opportunity (like with Owings) to see what they have in-house and to figure out their offseason approach. I’m not saying tank, because this team could easily go on a ‘88-style 18-2 run. But it’s time to look big picture, think about next year (and that HUGE offseason), and focus on that. Basically, winning big or losing big are their ideal outcomes. Squeaking in, they certainly could make a run cuz they have the horses. And if the talent eval means a bunch of losses, that’s good too. What’s bad is continuing to putter along around .510-.520 and working the stars/starters hard to chase a longshot, then not knowing anything more about their options come season’s end. I think you are right about a big offseason. I was just looking at the 40 man roster (with Owings now added) - I could envision these changes - Pedroia and Pearce gone (neither on the 40 man right now), Wright, Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, Brewer, Leon, Smith, Curletta, Weber, Cashner and Owings (11 from the current 40) (or maybe its just wishful thinking). It will indeed be interesting. I think Pedroia will retire, which is really sad and shitty but based on his latest procedure he’s just trying to be able to walk, let alone play baseball. I think that’s a big part of Owings’s call-up; Owings was a highly-rated prospect with a good bat, but he never really translated it. Still, there’s some potential there, especially if he can go the team’s selective aggression route. He needs to walk more and focus on driving the ball, because the whiffs will always be there. I think they’re going to give him a long look and consider Chavis as a mostly-2b option too. That leaves a big 1b question (hence Travis getting a long look too) and the back end of the rotation. There’s also obviously the bullpen, but I’m not sure they spend big there. Seems like they’re hoping/leaning on internal options. Porcello is most assuredly gone, which means they need a legitimate rotation piece; I’ve discussed Bundy as a nice 5th starter option elsewhere, and his price should be low. I think there’s also some chance JBJ gets traded, but unlikely given Duran’s stalling out significantly in AA and Wilson looking pretty solid but with too much swing-and-miss. There’s no ready CF option there. But they could shift Mookie to CF (also, ugh, a trade candidate), and find a passable RF. They have a lot of star power, but they need to supplement with some low-cost “scrubs” with a little upside. I’m more convinced they bring Holt back than I have been at any point this year. Porcello, Panda, Nunez, Pearce, maybe Moreland (he could be a 1-yr or 1+1 candidate, and while I’m not thrilled about spending another $10M for two years, it’s not a terrible idea) means roughly $50M off the books, but arb raises and new deals cut away about half. They need some cost savings, and those might come at the expense of depth. As messy as the bullpen situation’s been at times, Workman looks transformed and Walden and Taylor (especially) look like keepers. I still have hope for Brewer. Barnes just needs more consistency and some luck. Brasier is probably somewhere between these two seasons, which is to say, valuable but probably a 4th-5th guy. Another round of small trades (some candidates you’ve listed) for intriguing arms and some under-the-radar signings are probably in order. Darwinzon looks like a potential beast, but he’s not remotely “reliable” to be that. So I still think they go volume and see what sticks. Re: the rotation, beyond Bundy (who I think can be remade into a #3/4 and possibly even a RH Corbin with just some repertoire/sequencing changes) a guy like Jon Gray becomes more affordable, as he’s closer to FA and has been solid but unspectacular. Who knows what someone like Wheeler will get, but I could see the Sox going that route if the price is right, since there’s upside there as well. LOTS of big questions, but after Devers’s big breakout and Bogey’s continued ascendancy, not to mention Beni looking better in the second half, there’s hope. A “rebound” year for Mookie (PLEASE sign him before, guys!) and a returning JDM doing his thing goes a LONG way. Not to mention Chavis getting a full season under his belt, and addition by subtraction of Nunez et al. Marco looks very solid, especially if he can take some walks; Lin is also valuable as depth. JBJ’s extension or FA is a big question (he could return a viable young arm from Atlanta, but then the Sox would need a CF or at least a RF). So’s Eovaldi’s health/reliability going forward. I have a feeling there’s going to be a LOT of moving parts.
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Post by coachmac on Aug 11, 2019 22:43:59 GMT -5
Actually if the Sox want to trade JBJ, Rusney Castillo is in the last yearof his contract and wont cost much more than JBJ will in 2020. He at least can hold down the fort until Duran or Wilson prove they are ready for MLB or the Sox move on from them.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 11, 2019 22:47:34 GMT -5
Actually if the Sox want to trade JBJ, Rusney Castillo is in the last yearof his contract and wont cost much more than JBJ will in 2020. He at least can hold down the fort until Duran or Wilson prove they are ready for MLB or the Sox move on from them. That's a pretty big risk. I'd rather JBJ honestly and that pains me to say.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2019 3:46:37 GMT -5
Actually if the Sox want to trade JBJ, Rusney Castillo is in the last yearof his contract and wont cost much more than JBJ will in 2020. He at least can hold down the fort until Duran or Wilson prove they are ready for MLB or the Sox move on from them. That's a pretty big risk. I'd rather JBJ honestly and that pains me to say. Doesn't that depend on what they can get for JBJ's last year of control ? Plus, realistically, he's on a .6 WAR pace this year. How much risk is that ? Put him in a Yankee stadium and he could be a Didi Gregorious. (Oops, just bit my tongue).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 12, 2019 5:12:53 GMT -5
Really, I don't know what's more impressive.
Porcello giving up a ERA close to 6 in a full season or Cashner giving up a ERA over 8 in a shorter stint with the Sox.
I'll go with Porcello because it takes a lot more stink to get to that point.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 12, 2019 5:40:49 GMT -5
Briefly to sum up why the Sox are mediocre at best right now-
-Matt Barnes has ERA of 13.5 so far in August. -Porcello. -Cashner. -Brian Johnson has a ERA over 9.5 since coming off the IL. -JBJ has given you virtually nothing all year -Chavis has hit a wall and is hitting just above .150 in August -Moreland is hitting .200 in August -Sam Travis is hitting .213 in August -Devers has hit a wall. Chasing everything all over again, while hitting under .200 in August. He's drawing just 1 walk and striking out 13 times in 47 at bats. -Xander is hitting .227 in the month of August. He's also chasing at a lot of everything and not walking a whole lot. -Eduardo Rodriguez has reverted back to Mr. Mediocre himself (with a ERA over 4.5), after looking like a ACE in July. -Mr. Elite in Darwinzon Hernandez has a ERA over 9.5 in August. He's walked 5 in 4+ innings.
There are positives. Like Walden, Vazquez, JDM, Benny, Taylor, and Eovaldi.
It's mostly bad though. This has been mostly a collection of stink recently all into one pile. This is why you can't beat up on a bad Angels team at home right now. It's not just key players. It's everyone.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 12, 2019 6:22:34 GMT -5
I think you are right about a big offseason. I was just looking at the 40 man roster (with Owings now added) - I could envision these changes - Pedroia and Pearce gone (neither on the 40 man right now), Wright, Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, Brewer, Leon, Smith, Curletta, Weber, Cashner and Owings (11 from the current 40) (or maybe its just wishful thinking). It will indeed be interesting. I think Pedroia will retire, which is really sad and shitty but based on his latest procedure he’s just trying to be able to walk, let alone play baseball. I think that’s a big part of Owings’s call-up; Owings was a highly-rated prospect with a good bat, but he never really translated it. Still, there’s some potential there, especially if he can go the team’s selective aggression route. He needs to walk more and focus on driving the ball, because the whiffs will always be there. I think they’re going to give him a long look and consider Chavis as a mostly-2b option too. That leaves a big 1b question (hence Travis getting a long look too) and the back end of the rotation. There’s also obviously the bullpen, but I’m not sure they spend big there. Seems like they’re hoping/leaning on internal options. Porcello is most assuredly gone, which means they need a legitimate rotation piece; I’ve discussed Bundy as a nice 5th starter option elsewhere, and his price should be low. I think there’s also some chance JBJ gets traded, but unlikely given Duran’s stalling out significantly in AA and Wilson looking pretty solid but with too much swing-and-miss. There’s no ready CF option there. But they could shift Mookie to CF (also, ugh, a trade candidate), and find a passable RF. They have a lot of star power, but they need to supplement with some low-cost “scrubs” with a little upside. I’m more convinced they bring Holt back than I have been at any point this year. Porcello, Panda, Nunez, Pearce, maybe Moreland (he could be a 1-yr or 1+1 candidate, and while I’m not thrilled about spending another $10M for two years, it’s not a terrible idea) means roughly $50M off the books, but arb raises and new deals cut away about half. They need some cost savings, and those might come at the expense of depth. As messy as the bullpen situation’s been at times, Workman looks transformed and Walden and Taylor (especially) look like keepers. I still have hope for Brewer. Barnes just needs more consistency and some luck. Brasier is probably somewhere between these two seasons, which is to say, valuable but probably a 4th-5th guy. Another round of small trades (some candidates you’ve listed) for intriguing arms and some under-the-radar signings are probably in order. Darwinzon looks like a potential beast, but he’s not remotely “reliable” to be that. So I still think they go volume and see what sticks. Re: the rotation, beyond Bundy (who I think can be remade into a #3/4 and possibly even a RH Corbin with just some repertoire/sequencing changes) a guy like Jon Gray becomes more affordable, as he’s closer to FA and has been solid but unspectacular. Who knows what someone like Wheeler will get, but I could see the Sox going that route if the price is right, since there’s upside there as well. LOTS of big questions, but after Devers’s big breakout and Bogey’s continued ascendancy, not to mention Beni looking better in the second half, there’s hope. A “rebound” year for Mookie (PLEASE sign him before, guys!) and a returning JDM doing his thing goes a LONG way. Not to mention Chavis getting a full season under his belt, and addition by subtraction of Nunez et al. Marco looks very solid, especially if he can take some walks; Lin is also valuable as depth. JBJ’s extension or FA is a big question (he could return a viable young arm from Atlanta, but then the Sox would need a CF or at least a RF). So’s Eovaldi’s health/reliability going forward. I have a feeling there’s going to be a LOT of moving parts. I agree with almost all this detailed assessment. I like Brewer's stuff but don't believe that he will ever have the requisite command. Barnes is at a low point with command which is always tenuous, but I have confidence in his rebound particularly if given less stressful situations. Walden and Jones have been surprises to the good and Workman has apparently been tutored by Yoda. Hernandez looks to be a keeper....but not as a starter. I've never been a fan of Bundy but what the hey....How much worse than Porcello can he be? Wheeler only if we unload a lot of salary... So yup, go back into the mine and try to find a couple of rough cuts. Money, money, money.... It would be great to resign Mookie (looking for his oscillating year comeback) and JD but "show me the money"...Don't see it...We are going to need one of them to balance/lengthen the lineup but can't see both making it given all factors. JD's going to want a longer K and Mookie might get 10 at 35. Even with harvesting low cost flotsam, it looks to me that trading a Sale, Price or Mookie will be necessary to restock and recover flexibility. Underlying this is the banter that some change is good. I don't think change at the margin is what would be considered. So I see the off-season with a focus on taking one step back near term to take two forward in 2021. Big changes, more financial oxygen.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 12, 2019 6:51:33 GMT -5
That's a pretty big risk. I'd rather JBJ honestly and that pains me to say. Doesn't that depend on what they can get for JBJ's last year of control ? Plus, realistically, he's on a .6 WAR pace this year. How much risk is that ? Put him in a Yankee stadium and he could be a Didi Gregorious. (Oops, just bit my tongue). Because the last time we saw Castillo in the majors he was a train wreck. He's 31 with an .813 OPS in AAA.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2019 7:08:42 GMT -5
Doesn't that depend on what they can get for JBJ's last year of control ? Plus, realistically, he's on a .6 WAR pace this year. How much risk is that ? Put him in a Yankee stadium and he could be a Didi Gregorious. (Oops, just bit my tongue). Because the last time we saw Castillo in the majors he was a train wreck. He's 31 with an .813 OPS in AAA. Castillo has a .9 fWAR over 99 career games. JBJ has a .6 fWAR over 109 2019 games. You consider that a "big risk" ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2019 7:19:05 GMT -5
I know that JBJ has a great personality and that he's fun to watch and part of the chemistry and we've all seen what he's capable of but realistically he's only justified 4.8m of his 8.5m contract. He's a candidate to be non-tendered.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 12, 2019 7:41:17 GMT -5
Because the last time we saw Castillo in the majors he was a train wreck. He's 31 with an .813 OPS in AAA. Castillo has a .9 fWAR over 99 career games. JBJ has a .6 fWAR over 109 2019 games. You consider that a "big risk" ? JBJ for sure is having a down year. I really want to get rid of him. With that said, in 2015 he hit .253/.288/.359/.647 in 289 PA. He then had 9 PA and hit .250/.250/.375/.625. JBJ at his worst is likely as good as Castillo at his best.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2019 8:39:40 GMT -5
This isn't a steak or lobster decision, more like McDonald's no frills hamburger vs hotdog. If JBJ isn't here and if they can bring Castillo up without affecting a tax plateau, there's no real reason not to.
Rusney's 2019 projections are higher than JBJ's actual 2019 production.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 12, 2019 9:15:36 GMT -5
This isn't a steak or lobster decision, more like McDonald's no frills hamburger vs hotdog. If JBJ isn't here and if they can bring Castillo up without affecting a tax plateau, there's no real reason not to. Rusney's 2019 projections are higher than JBJ's actual 2019 production. How do we project what Castillo will do in the majors though? He had 1 crack at it in 2015, is 31, and not super impressive in AAA. With JBJ there's some potential upside there. He's not Billy Hamilton with the bat, which is what I think Rusney ultimately is without the speed. My point is, if they're near equivalent cost, JBJ still has a higher ceiling for next year. That contract ruined Castillo. I'd say maybe a mid season callup could be possible since they'd be on the hook for half a season, but only if he's playing well.
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 12, 2019 10:27:50 GMT -5
Due to his minimal service time, won't we still control Castillo at the league minimum in 2021 after his current deal ends? Seems more likely he could get a shot then.
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