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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 1, 2020 21:44:13 GMT -5
All well and good. But what Betts or anyone else believes is irrelevant to a price set by the market. It has not spoken. Should the Sox offer him the number he threw out there? That's the crux of the discussion on this board and I've been interested in what people here have to say. But it isn't about the market value. That hasn't been determined. How Mookie performs will determine what the market for him will be. That's what's being said.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 1, 2020 21:52:08 GMT -5
I don't think the current plan is to re-sign Betts, yet that could change. You might not know Betts Market exactly, yet we know the market conditions. We know Betts mindset about getting the biggest deal and we know the Dodgers with tons of money will be involved. We know the big prior contracts he'll use as examples why he's worth more. Make no mistake his current plan is to top Trouts deal. Dodger Stadium could certainly reduce Betts overall numbers, yet wouldn't his war be adjusted? Which is what really matters. Not if Dodger Stadium is worse for him in particular relative to Fenway, which it very probably is because: Green Monster, and also Fenway right field.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 2, 2020 0:36:56 GMT -5
I don't think the current plan is to re-sign Betts, yet that could change. You might not know Betts Market exactly, yet we know the market conditions. We know Betts mindset about getting the biggest deal and we know the Dodgers with tons of money will be involved. We know the big prior contracts he'll use as examples why he's worth more. Make no mistake his current plan is to top Trouts deal. Dodger Stadium could certainly reduce Betts overall numbers, yet wouldn't his war be adjusted? Which is what really matters. What good are his adjusted numbers to the Dodgers though? They'll still be getting less from him than the Red Sox would be getting. I don't understand your point. A 7 bwar is a 7 war player, no matter what his stats are. Hitters in general do better in Fenway than Dodger Stadium. It's why stats are adjusted for park effect.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 2, 2020 0:37:57 GMT -5
All well and good. But what Betts or anyone else believes is irrelevant to a price set by the market. It has not spoken. Should the Sox offer him the number he threw out there? That's the crux of the discussion on this board and I've been interested in what people here have to say. But it isn't about the market value. That hasn't been determined. How Mookie performs will determine what the market for him will be. That's what's being said. Go back one page and read the thread. That's not what was being said.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 2, 2020 0:54:43 GMT -5
I don't think the current plan is to re-sign Betts, yet that could change. You might not know Betts Market exactly, yet we know the market conditions. We know Betts mindset about getting the biggest deal and we know the Dodgers with tons of money will be involved. We know the big prior contracts he'll use as examples why he's worth more. Make no mistake his current plan is to top Trouts deal. Dodger Stadium could certainly reduce Betts overall numbers, yet wouldn't his war be adjusted? Which is what really matters. Not if Dodger Stadium is worse for him in particular relative to Fenway, which it very probably is because: Green Monster, and also Fenway right field. I don't think that's really the question, almost every hitter will be better in Fenway. Lots of hitters can use the Green Monster, we've seen that over the years. Betts isn't close to a limited hitter, I think he can adjust to almost any park. So wouldn't Fenway help hitters who can't adjust more yet hit most balls towards the Green Monster? I'd have to see a lot of data for me to truly buy that theory.
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Post by blumj on Mar 2, 2020 8:18:54 GMT -5
We do have a chance to convince them this season that the reduction of ticket sales and tv ratings without Mookie will cost them as much as paying him will.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 2, 2020 9:12:23 GMT -5
We do have a chance to convince them this season that the reduction of ticket sales and tv ratings without Mookie will cost them as much as paying him will. My guess is if Duran has a break-through - if some of that power is real and the hitting tool stays intact, they're going to pencil in the 2021 outfield as Benitendi/Duran/Verdugo and they won't be chasing after Mookie.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 2, 2020 9:23:55 GMT -5
We do have a chance to convince them this season that the reduction of ticket sales and tv ratings without Mookie will cost them as much as paying him will. My guess is if Duran has a break-through - if some of that power is real and the hitting tool stays intact, they're going to pencil in the 2021 outfield as Benitendi/Duran/Verdugo and they won't be chasing after Mookie. The implicit disrespect for Betts in some of these posts is wild.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 2, 2020 10:43:26 GMT -5
Very true. We're talking about a player who has an MVP trophy and will in all likelihood keep getting votes for the award going forward. He may even win it out outright again. By Baseball-Reference he's averaged just about 8 wins per year. That towers above anyone the Sox are likely to get as a replacement.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Mar 2, 2020 10:44:14 GMT -5
Lol Duran helium is out of control
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 2, 2020 10:56:01 GMT -5
LOL lots of "ifs" here so I'll add mine. IF Duran has a breakout year (assuming he even gets more than a cup of coffee) and IF Verdugo proves healthy and productive THEN JBJ is allowed to walk and IF the Sox can sign Mookie THEN Benni is the one traded.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 2, 2020 11:36:36 GMT -5
What good are his adjusted numbers to the Dodgers though? They'll still be getting less from him than the Red Sox would be getting. I don't understand your point. A 7 bwar is a 7 war player, no matter what his stats are. Hitters in general do better in Fenway than Dodger Stadium. It's why stats are adjusted for park effect. Stats are adjusted for park effect but anyone who is able to take more advantage of any particular home park feature like the Green Monster is worth more than their WAR says. Mookie's defensive WAR is adjusted to right field but it's not adjusted for Fenway's massive right field. Someone like Didi Gregorius is worth a lot more to the Yankees than any other team because he perfected the 310 foot home run to RF. His power will drop to almost zero elsewhere. Mookie's swing takes way more advantage of the Monster than the park adjustments account for. The park adjustments are for average players not for each individual batter based on their hitting tendencies. Mookie is a dead pull fly ball hitter. That's a worthless skill in LA and the most valuable skill that exists in Fenway.
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Post by mg050369 on Mar 2, 2020 11:38:27 GMT -5
I suspect Duran’s ‘20 season will have no impact on a Mookie negotiation. Even with a breakout season he could be the 4th OF if you re-sign Betts at the right price. If he proves too good to sit, you trade Beni at the deadline or next off season. If Duran hits .200 in ‘20, it doesn’t make Bloom any more motivated to sign him to a 12/$420M deal.
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 2, 2020 11:49:03 GMT -5
I'm sure the Red Sox already know how seriously they are willing to pursue Mookie and how high they're willing to go for him. Duran could have Luis Robert's 2019 season and it wouldn't change that calculus much.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 2, 2020 12:58:31 GMT -5
How Mookie performs will determine what the market for him will be. That's what's being said. Go back one page and read the thread. That's not what was being said. Let me correct myself then. That's what I was attempting to say.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 2, 2020 16:43:10 GMT -5
My guess is if Duran has a break-through - if some of that power is real and the hitting tool stays intact, they're going to pencil in the 2021 outfield as Benitendi/Duran/Verdugo and they won't be chasing after Mookie. The implicit disrespect for Betts in some of these posts is wild. What disrespect for Betts are you getting out of my posts? If you're seeing disrespect for Betts then you are very much misreading my post. I already don't think the Sox will be the top bidders to bring back Betts. I think the Sox are going to shy away from mega-contracts and try to build flexibility into their budget. They'll still spend but they're not going to have a guy making almost 20% of the payroll and on the hook for a decade. They hired Bloom because they do want to operate like Tampa, but with more money. None of that is "disrespect" for Betts. All I'm saying is that if Duran blossoms to the point where he is very much a viable candidate for CF - a guy who looks like he can lead off, run like crazy, play a respectable CF, and even provide some pop - the Sox will go with him for CF. If Benintendi bounces back as I suspect he will - he's a really cheap option. Between Verdugo, Benintendi, and Duran, you have three outfielders under control for awhile, with none making big dollars. If Duran looks more like a #4 OF, then yeah it's likely the Sox go the free agency route - although if they do I suspect they'd sign Springer for lower $ and a lot less years than go all out for Betts. Me personally, I'd rather they go out and throw a bunch of money at Betts, but I don't think they'll do that. That's my opinion. I reserve the right to be proven wrong.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 2, 2020 16:52:16 GMT -5
I don't understand your point. A 7 bwar is a 7 war player, no matter what his stats are. Hitters in general do better in Fenway than Dodger Stadium. It's why stats are adjusted for park effect. Stats are adjusted for park effect but anyone who is able to take more advantage of any particular home park feature like the Green Monster is worth more than their WAR says. Mookie's defensive WAR is adjusted to right field but it's not adjusted for Fenway's massive right field. Someone like Didi Gregorius is worth a lot more to the Yankees than any other team because he perfected the 310 foot home run to RF. His power will drop to almost zero elsewhere. Mookie's swing takes way more advantage of the Monster than the park adjustments account for. The park adjustments are for average players not for each individual batter based on their hitting tendencies. Mookie is a dead pull fly ball hitter. That's a worthless skill in LA and the most valuable skill that exists in Fenway. Explain how they are worth more? War takes Betts stats and adjusts them to Fenway, he isn't worth more because he uses the Green Monster, that's one of the reasons he puts up big numbers. I also think you are looking at it all wrong in the Field, him playing right field in Fenway is why he puts up massive defensive numbers. It gives him more opportunities to save runs than other parks and bwar takes that into account. I don't know about fwar. There are certainly players where that is the case, Didi is a very good example. Yet Betts is a very good complete hitter, is the Green Monster just helping him or has he built his approach to use the Green Monster? Certain hitters are limited and parks can either really hurt or help them. Yet the very best hitters can adjust to any park. I fully expect Betts to change his approach playing in Dodger Stadium. If he can't you guys might be right, yet that also means he's not the elite hitter I think he is.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 2, 2020 17:45:31 GMT -5
Stats are adjusted for park effect but anyone who is able to take more advantage of any particular home park feature like the Green Monster is worth more than their WAR says. Mookie's defensive WAR is adjusted to right field but it's not adjusted for Fenway's massive right field. Someone like Didi Gregorius is worth a lot more to the Yankees than any other team because he perfected the 310 foot home run to RF. His power will drop to almost zero elsewhere. Mookie's swing takes way more advantage of the Monster than the park adjustments account for. The park adjustments are for average players not for each individual batter based on their hitting tendencies. Mookie is a dead pull fly ball hitter. That's a worthless skill in LA and the most valuable skill that exists in Fenway. Explain how they are worth more? War takes Betts stats and adjusts them to Fenway, he isn't worth more because he uses the Green Monster, that's one of the reasons he puts up big numbers. I also think you are looking at it all wrong in the Field, him playing right field in Fenway is why he puts up massive defensive numbers. It gives him more opportunities to save runs than other parks and bwar takes that into account. I don't know about fwar. There are certainly players where that is the case, Didi is a very good example. Yet Betts is a very good complete hitter, is the Green Monster just helping him or has he built his approach to use the Green Monster? Certain hitters are limited and parks can either really hurt or help them. Yet the very best hitters can adjust to any park. I fully expect Betts to change his approach playing in Dodger Stadium. If he can't you guys might be right, yet that also means he's not the elite hitter I think he is. It boggles my mind that you can't get this.
You saw Wade Boggs play here. If you were hanging out in SoSH in early 2003, you saw me raving about Bill Mueller, who had played his entire career in ballparks that were awful for him and was moving to one perfect for him. You can look up what happened to his WAR.
Mookie's a gifted hitter with incredible hands. But his biggest gift is the ability to turn on tough inside pitches and hit them very, very hard. To left field.
Over the last 3 years, Mookie had the following ranks in xwOBA / wOBA by batted ball direction (all batted ball types). The change in ranking tells you his fit to the park.
Pulled: 38 / 8 of 232.
Center: 48 / 134 of 230.
Oppo 153 / 166 out of 175.
It's possible that he'll gain back some of what he'll lose when he pulls the ball, by gains in balls hit to CF. I have more work to do. But the data makes it clear that so far, he's living off the balls he pulls.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 2, 2020 20:43:09 GMT -5
Explain how they are worth more? War takes Betts stats and adjusts them to Fenway, he isn't worth more because he uses the Green Monster, that's one of the reasons he puts up big numbers. I also think you are looking at it all wrong in the Field, him playing right field in Fenway is why he puts up massive defensive numbers. It gives him more opportunities to save runs than other parks and bwar takes that into account. I don't know about fwar. There are certainly players where that is the case, Didi is a very good example. Yet Betts is a very good complete hitter, is the Green Monster just helping him or has he built his approach to use the Green Monster? Certain hitters are limited and parks can either really hurt or help them. Yet the very best hitters can adjust to any park. I fully expect Betts to change his approach playing in Dodger Stadium. If he can't you guys might be right, yet that also means he's not the elite hitter I think he is. It boggles my mind that you can't get this.
You saw Wade Boggs play here. If you were hanging out in SoSH in early 2003, you saw me raving about Bill Mueller, who had played his entire career in ballparks that were awful for him and was moving to one perfect for him. You can look up what happened to his WAR.
Mookie's a gifted hitter with incredible hands. But his biggest gift is the ability to turn on tough inside pitches and hit them very, very hard. To left field.
Over the last 3 years, Mookie had the following ranks in xwOBA / wOBA by batted ball direction (all batted ball types). The change in ranking tells you his fit to the park.
Pulled: 38 / 8 of 232.
Center: 48 / 134 of 230.
Oppo 153 / 166 out of 175.
It's possible that he'll gain back some of what he'll lose when he pulls the ball, by gains in balls hit to CF. I have more work to do. But the data makes it clear that so far, he's living off the balls he pulls.
Eric I was 10 the last year Wade Boggs played for the Red Sox. I barely remember him. I was in College during 2003 and not on Baseball boards talking Baseball. My point is you have no data how Betts plays if Fenway isn't his home park. The numbers you show aren't surprising given Fenway Park. You act like it means it's 100% park effect for him, when it could easily be approach or a combination. Big Papi talked about learning how to use the Green Monster, many hitters have. I'm sure the Red Sox teach their hitters to use the Green Monster. Do you really not expect his approach to change? You really need data when Fenway isn't his home park to fully support your claims.
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Post by p23w on Mar 2, 2020 21:11:14 GMT -5
Here's a "take" on Mookie Betts. The Dodgers win the pennant (no real surprise here) but then they win the World Series. The disappointment of 2017 and 2018 is purged from la-la land. Mookie Betts wants more than Mike Trout. Mike Trout plays in lower la-la land. Does anyone really believe that the Dodgers would let Mookie leave when they have the ability to one up the Angels after having won the World Series (ESPECIALLY if they beat the Yankees)? The pressure, the anticipation, the alignment of the planets Magic Johnsons standing as an LA icon all point to sign Mookie at all costs. Basically life after Mookie translates to life without Mookie. Blame Bloom, blame ownership but do yourself a favor and move on. OR you could hold out for the tried and true baseball adage that it will take Mookie time to adjust to a new league. New parks, new pitchers, the National League style of play.... but don't put to much stock in that hope. Unless Roberts really screws up with his line up Mookie will have top notch hitters in front and behind him. He will have to be pitched to. Mookie can figure out the rest.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 2, 2020 21:41:56 GMT -5
They hired Bloom because they do want to operate like Tampa, but with more money. None of that is "disrespect" for Betts. All I'm saying is that if Duran blossoms to the point where he is very much a viable candidate for CF - a guy who looks like he can lead off, run like crazy, play a respectable CF, and even provide some pop - the Sox will go with him for CF. If Benintendi bounces back as I suspect he will - he's a really cheap option. Between Verdugo, Benintendi, and Duran, you have three outfielders under control for awhile, with none making big dollars.Which in no way constitutes a replacement for a superstar player, even allowing for a very optimistic projection for Duran.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 3, 2020 1:56:03 GMT -5
Not if Dodger Stadium is worse for him in particular relative to Fenway, which it very probably is because: Green Monster, and also Fenway right field. I don't think that's really the question, almost every hitter will be better in Fenway. Lots of hitters can use the Green Monster, we've seen that over the years. Betts isn't close to a limited hitter, I think he can adjust to almost any park. So wouldn't Fenway help hitters who can't adjust more yet hit most balls towards the Green Monster? I'd have to see a lot of data for me to truly buy that theory. This is like FTHW's suggestion that he can make up for the loss of doubles and homers to left field in Fenway by just hitting a bunch of singles up the middle, and, uh... I'm skeptical of that. It's no knock on Mookie. He's probably one of the top 15 or 20 hitters in the game regardless of where he plays. But, you know, even Barry Bonds would've hit more homers if he had played in Yankee Stadium...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 3, 2020 9:27:09 GMT -5
They hired Bloom because they do want to operate like Tampa, but with more money. None of that is "disrespect" for Betts. All I'm saying is that if Duran blossoms to the point where he is very much a viable candidate for CF - a guy who looks like he can lead off, run like crazy, play a respectable CF, and even provide some pop - the Sox will go with him for CF. If Benintendi bounces back as I suspect he will - he's a really cheap option. Between Verdugo, Benintendi, and Duran, you have three outfielders under control for awhile, with none making big dollars.Which in no way constitutes a replacement for a superstar player, even allowing for a very optimistic projection for Duran. I never claimed that it did. To be clear I hope the Sox go full blast after Mookie, but what I want and what they will probably do are two different things. My point was based on if Duran looks like an above average regular - and that is an optimistic take to be sure - I'm not sold yet. Intrigued, yes. Sold, no. I don't think the Sox will look to be the highest bidders. That's something Dombrowski could easily have done. I don't think that ownership wants to go that route anymore. I don't anticipate any David Price type signings anymore where they blow away the field. The Red Sox will still spend money but they will spread it around.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 3, 2020 10:15:05 GMT -5
Lol Duran helium is out of control arent people supposed to get excited at potential prospect development. This is a Red Sox prospect site. Gimme a break.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 3, 2020 10:25:35 GMT -5
Lol Duran helium is out of control arent people supposed to get excited at potential prospect development. This is a Red Sox prospect site. Gimme a break. I’m all for some buzz, but people are penciling him into the future starting lineup like he didn’t just post a .634 OPS and 87 wRC+ over 82 games in Portland last year. His BABIP at lower levels was largely unsustainable, he doesn’t walk much, he’s very raw in the outfield, and isn’t spectacular as a contact hitter either. It would be ideal for him to step his power game up a bit, but there are still a lot of things that need to go right for him before we can assume he’s a future starter. Take it from Brandon Jacobs’ biggest fan.
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