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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 3, 2020 10:35:02 GMT -5
arent people supposed to get excited at potential prospect development. This is a Red Sox prospect site. Gimme a break. I’m all for some buzz, but people are penciling him into the future starting lineup like he didn’t just post a .634 OPS and 87 wRC+ over 82 games in Portland last year. His BABIP at lower levels was largely unsustainable, he doesn’t walk much, he’s very raw in the outfield, and isn’t spectacular as a contact hitter either. It would be ideal for him to step his power game up a bit, but there are still a lot of things that need to go right for him before we can assume he’s a future starter. Take it from Brandon Jacobs’ biggest fan. that's fair. However, he is in his 3rd year of development, has one tool that is plus-plus. The walk rates and contact rates can improve as he gets more at bats. His position change was very recent and is likely to get better. I also think, right or wrong, folks are hoping for the best given that he is, ostensibly, trying to replace either Mookie and / or JBJ in the near future. We need some outfield depth and he is as good a chance as we have in the system. Add: the Portland numbers that you quoted are skewed a bit by what was a slow start. He picked it up the latter part of his season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 3, 2020 10:42:59 GMT -5
I’m all for some buzz, but people are penciling him into the future starting lineup like he didn’t just post a .634 OPS and 87 wRC+ over 82 games in Portland last year. His BABIP at lower levels was largely unsustainable, he doesn’t walk much, he’s very raw in the outfield, and isn’t spectacular as a contact hitter either. It would be ideal for him to step his power game up a bit, but there are still a lot of things that need to go right for him before we can assume he’s a future starter. Take it from Brandon Jacobs’ biggest fan. that's fair. However, he is in his 3rd year of development, has one tool that is plus-plus. The walk rates and contact rates can improve as he gets more at bats. His position change was very recent and is likely to get better. I also think, right or wrong, folks are hoping for the best given that he is, ostensibly, trying to replace either Mookie and / or JBJ in the near future. We need some outfield depth and he is as good a chance as we have in the system. I don't think it's uncommon for kids to hit a speed bump when they first go to a new level and then adjust. We don't know if his changes will jumpstart the adjustment or create the power that's hoped for. He's definitely a potential JBJ replacement. Alex Verdugo was brought in to be Mookie's replacement. I think right now he's looked at as a #4 OF on a good team or a possible starter on a mediocre/bad team, but I think there's more in there. We'll see if he gets there. Doesn't stop me from wanting Mookie back for 2021 and beyond, but that doesn't really matter.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 3, 2020 10:47:39 GMT -5
that's fair. However, he is in his 3rd year of development, has one tool that is plus-plus. The walk rates and contact rates can improve as he gets more at bats. His position change was very recent and is likely to get better. I also think, right or wrong, folks are hoping for the best given that he is, ostensibly, trying to replace either Mookie and / or JBJ in the near future. We need some outfield depth and he is as good a chance as we have in the system. I don't think it's uncommon for kids to hit a speed bump when they first go to a new level and then adjust. We don't know if his changes will jumpstart the adjustment or create the power that's hoped for. He's definitely a potential JBJ replacement. Alex Verdugo was brought in to be Mookie's replacement. I think right now he's looked at as a #4 OF on a good team or a possible starter on a mediocre/bad team, but I think there's more in there. We'll see if he gets there. Doesn't stop me from wanting Mookie back for 2021 and beyond, but that doesn't really matter. yes on Verdugo. but the back remains a concern for me.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 3, 2020 10:55:52 GMT -5
Alex Verdugo was brought in to be Mookie's replacement. In the sense that Mookie Betts used to be the right fielder and Alex Verdugo is now the right fielder, okay. But that's not accurate or fair to Verdugo. He's not going to replace Mookie and there would be plenty of room on a baseball field for both of them even if Verdugo ends up being outstanding.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 3, 2020 11:07:31 GMT -5
Alex Verdugo was brought in to be Mookie's replacement. In the sense that Mookie Betts used to be the right fielder and Alex Verdugo is now the right fielder, okay. But that's not accurate or fair to Verdugo. He's not going to replace Mookie and there would be plenty of room on a baseball field for both of them even if Verdugo ends up being outstanding. Again, nobody is saying that Verdugo = Mookie. Very, very few players in baseball do. And of course an outfield of Benintendi/Betts/Verdugo is what you'd dream about. Is that even a question? Haha. It's up to the Red Sox FO to come up with an offer that Mookie cannot refuse. Honestly the Red Sox might want to sink their financial resources in starting pitching. The Red Sox lack a lot of starting pitching. If Sale's elbow is the worst case scenario - which is not implausible, then they are extremely short on pitching.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 3, 2020 13:49:35 GMT -5
I don't think that's really the question, almost every hitter will be better in Fenway. Lots of hitters can use the Green Monster, we've seen that over the years. Betts isn't close to a limited hitter, I think he can adjust to almost any park. So wouldn't Fenway help hitters who can't adjust more yet hit most balls towards the Green Monster? I'd have to see a lot of data for me to truly buy that theory. This is like FTHW's suggestion that he can make up for the loss of doubles and homers to left field in Fenway by just hitting a bunch of singles up the middle, and, uh... I'm skeptical of that. It's no knock on Mookie. He's probably one of the top 15 or 20 hitters in the game regardless of where he plays. But, you know, even Barry Bonds would've hit more homers if he had played in Yankee Stadium... That's the real question can Betts adjust or is he just naturally built for Fenway? Without data with him playing home games at other parks we really don't know. Players approaches are set up for there home parks, which is why most hitters hit better at home even when they play in parks like Petco. I'm going to give a hitter as good as Betts the benefit of doubt before saying he can't adjust. Again war adjusts numbers for parks, a replacement hitter at Fenway or Yankee Stadium is higher than one from Dodger Stadium. Betts could hit 30HR while being a 7 war player at Fenway, and hit 25 while being a 7 war player for the Dodgers. It isn't about raw stats. What Eric is claiming is that Betts could be say a 7 war player for the Red Sox, but a 5.5 war player for the Dodgers. Now that might be the case, yet we don't have data to support that yet. Betts would hit more HRs in Coors field, because everyone does, it doesn't mean he'll be more valuable though.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 3, 2020 15:40:25 GMT -5
This is like FTHW's suggestion that he can make up for the loss of doubles and homers to left field in Fenway by just hitting a bunch of singles up the middle, and, uh... I'm skeptical of that. It's no knock on Mookie. He's probably one of the top 15 or 20 hitters in the game regardless of where he plays. But, you know, even Barry Bonds would've hit more homers if he had played in Yankee Stadium... That's the real question can Betts adjust or is he just naturally built for Fenway? Without data with him playing home games at other parks we really don't know. Players approaches are set up for there home parks, which is why most hitters hit better at home even when they play in parks like Petco. I'm going to give a hitter as good as Betts the benefit of doubt before saying he can't adjust. Again war adjusts numbers for parks, a replacement hitter at Fenway or Yankee Stadium is higher than one from Dodger Stadium. Betts could hit 30HR while being a 7 war player at Fenway, and hit 25 while being a 7 war player for the Dodgers. It isn't about raw stats. What Eric is claiming is that Betts could be say a 7 war player for the Red Sox, but a 5.5 war player for the Dodgers. Now that might be the case, yet we don't have data to support that yet. Betts would hit more HRs in Coors field, because everyone does, it doesn't mean he'll be more valuable though. 1) Changing your approach when you have been hugely successful is always a huge gamble at best. You can screw up your swing completely.
2) Over the last three seasons, Mookie ranked in the 97th percentile of all MLB hitters when he pulled the ball, and in the 6th percentile when he went to the opposite field. He's the last guy whose approach you'd want to alter to try to pull the ball less. Sure, work on taking the outside pitch the other way with some authority. You would try to do that every year no matter what park you're in (and I'll look to see if there was an improvement from 2017 to 2018, and what happened last year). But you cannot do so at the cost of your strength.
3) Dodger Stadium is perfectly symmetrical.
Any change in Mookie's balls pulled to LF will be the result of his being pitched differently. He's be crazy to change his approach, even if a lot of single and doubles off the wall turn into outs (and some into homers).
I really have to look at his LD's, not just his FB's, and at CF and not just LF. I suspect the difference in fit to park is not as extreme as just the pulled-fly data suggests. I hope to have a much better study of all this within the next ... week?
I want to first run 12 Statcast searches of all MLB hitters 2017-2019 and crunch that data to get a sense of the general relationship between wOBA and xwOBA. And probably the same 12 for what pitchers allowed. It's very obvious that for balls that are not hit to center, the higher your xwOBA, the higher your "luck" (wOBA - xwOBA).
(The 12 searches are wOBA and xWOBA, for FB and LD, hit the three ways, all on the road to minimize park effects. To do this study properly, you would do 432 separate searches. You would do the three years separately, you would do it separately for RHB and LHB, you'd do home as well as away, and you'd do GB just out of curiosity. But this version should get us close enough.)
Edit: two extra searches will allow me to break it down by batter handedness, excluding switch-hitters. Search on any stat ... just get a list of all the RHB and all the LHB. That will actually be very useful and interesting. The two extreme easy fields in MLB, Fenway and Minute Maid, are both in LF, so there should be a slight difference by batter handedness.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 3, 2020 15:50:39 GMT -5
This is like FTHW's suggestion that he can make up for the loss of doubles and homers to left field in Fenway by just hitting a bunch of singles up the middle, and, uh... I'm skeptical of that. Doubles.Betts will take a hit leaving Fenway, but I don't think you can just take his past batted ball profile and project it forward unchanged. Betts didn't just happen to have the perfect batted ball profile for Fenway, it was an intentional thing.
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Post by p23w on Mar 3, 2020 17:44:47 GMT -5
This is like FTHW's suggestion that he can make up for the loss of doubles and homers to left field in Fenway by just hitting a bunch of singles up the middle, and, uh... I'm skeptical of that. Doubles.Betts will take a hit leaving Fenway, but I don't think you can just take his past batted ball profile and project it forward unchanged. Betts didn't just happen to have the perfect batted ball profile for Fenway, it was an intentional thing. Badda-bing, badda-boom. Give this man a ceegar.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 3, 2020 22:09:19 GMT -5
Doubles.Betts will take a hit leaving Fenway, but I don't think you can just take his past batted ball profile and project it forward unchanged. Betts didn't just happen to have the perfect batted ball profile for Fenway, it was an intentional thing. Badda-bing, badda-boom. Give this man a ceegar. Except he doesn't have the perfect batted ball profile for Fenway.
The thing that makes Mookie a great hitter is that he pulls the ball insanely hard. His xwOBA on fly balls to LF is higher than his xwOBA on liners to left, which is just crazy (the BABIP on fly balls is small compared to that of liners). This is 2017 - 2019, xwOBA / wOBA, RHB, balls pulled in the air.
MLB, LD (60%) .718 / .758
MLB, FB (40%) .667 / .918 Betts A LD (63%) .708 / .857 Betts H LD (64%) .724 / .764 Betts A FB (37%) .721 / .937 Betts H FB (36%) .757 / 1.124
The first thing you notice is that Mookie hits more liners relative to other players. Given the balls he's hit in the air in Fenway, he's hit 5 fewer flies and 5 more liners than the average player would have. Given that Fenway is the 15th best park for liners to left, that's not optimal.
And look at Mookie's great wOBA - xwOBA on liners on the road. The league averages .040, Mookie's at .149. That comes from hitting homers down the line. You'll note that at Fenway, he's .040, exactly the league average.
Pulled fly balls by RHB earn on average a whopping .251 wOBA - xwOBA. That's a lot more than the .040 for liners. And Fenway adds .116 for Mookie on those fly balls! An optimum batted ball profile for Fenway would combine this dead-pull hitting with a significantly higher FB rate on balls in the air (technically known as a "Petrocelli"). Not a below-average one.
All of this, BTW, confirms my subjective impression that this is how he hits. Ted Williams would have told you that pull hitters are born, not made. It looks like the Blu Jays may have tanked Kevin Pillar's offensive career by discouraging his innate pull tendencies.
So, you may well ask, where does Dodger Stadium rank for wOBA - xwOBA on liners to LF?
28th.
(Center field is much better than Fenway, I think. Those numbers will come soon.)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 4, 2020 17:00:38 GMT -5
After comparing Fenway vs. Dodgers Stadium aren't we making a mountain out of a molehill?
If you hit a HR over the Green Monster, it's going to be a HR at Dodger Stadium. Heck wouldn't a lot of hard hit long doubles or even those rocket hard hit singles have a good chance of being HRs at Dodger Stadium if they hit high off the Green Monster? I don't care about the distance, the Green Monster is crazy high.
If you want to use stat cast data. Then wouldn't the correct move be to compare the balls hit in Fenway vs Dodgers Stadium? I wouldn't be surprised if he hit more HRs, because the Green Monster can rob you of HRs also. Then compare that to the hits he would lose on the lower part of the Green Monster.
I'm highly confused because if you say he crushes ball to left field about as hard as anyone, he shouldn't have issues in Dodger Stadium. It's not like it's got a 400 foot wall or anything crazy like that.
I also don't buy elite guys can't change there approach. You want to give Betts 10 plus years and you don't think he can change his approach? David Ortiz talked about learning to use the Green Monster. David Ortiz adjusted to those crazy shifts and learned to hit away from them. It's what makes elite hitters elite. Then you have guys like Bradly who litterally can't adjust and the shift kills him.
Betts won't have elite bat speed forever, if he's going to be an all-time great he's going to have to adjust a ton over the next decade. So I find it crazy funny the same guys that want to pay him whatever it takes think he can't adjust and change his approach.
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