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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2020 9:20:57 GMT -5
OK, lots of stuff I wanted to respond to here. They showed a graphic that the Red Sox have produced more WAR (76+) over the past five drafts than any other team. That’s probably gonna change. Last year’s draft sucked. We thought it at the time and it looks to be true. The Sox have done well drafting tough to sign guys. Actually, they’ve done well drafting, period. But they need a big day tomorrow because they probably aren’t getting much from last year’s draft and Yorke is gonna have to hit a ton because he doesn’t project to do much else. Yikes. I can't imagine a worse stat for them to use like it matters than WAR from the last 5 drafts. Like how many players are we even talking? Nobody from the Red Sox last 3 drafts is even in the majors yet. Also there's no way the number was 76 - it's basically Benintendi and some replacement-level guys. Red sox scouting director Paul Toboni said they compare Yorke to Kevin Youkikis and see him long term as a 2nd basemen. Either way, to me, that's not a player you take at 17 overall. Limited defensively and lower ceiling. Bitsko could have been our top pitching prospect as a 17 yr old with a huge ceiling and guys like PCA, Soderstrom, or even Tucker have higher ceilings, more tools, and play more premium positions... I'm hoping for some high ceiling HS picks tomorrow He said he has some Youkilis in him in the way he hits. That was the extent of the comp. And this is exactly why I hate comps. Vanderbilt Head Coach Tim Corbin just now on MLB Network: "Nick Yorke wasn't a surprise to me. We really recruited that kid. I thought he was the best hitter in High School baseball. This is a kid that has extreme hit skill, he's strong, he hits with no batter's gloves. He's a baseball player." Hit tool is the one tool I care about more than anything else. So, if Yorke is signing for $2m then they have about $3.4m to sign 3 players, right? I think I would have preferred the Sox do something more obvious with the 17th pick, but if they spend that $3.4m wisely then maybe the value play works out. Yeah, and I'll credit Ian for calling this the second they lost the second-round pick. He kind of backed away from that a bit but he saw this is a strategy from the jump. Save a bunch of money at 17 and spread it in the last three rounds to guys who fall. It does not seem like the Red Sox just came with this recently they have targeted him for a while now. For the Scouting Director to be at his early games and them working him out privately in Dec it seems like he was a priority follow for them. We can disagree all we want but this is why they get paid the big bucks and we are just keyboard warriors. They have conviction on this guy and I love that, maybe they’ll look foolish in a year or maybe look like geniuses we’ll find out. Labandeira and Toboni have both been on him since he was a sophomore. Bleacher Report "First Round (No. 17 Overall): Nick Yorke, 2B, Archbishop Mitty High School (CA) In order to be a legitimate draft prospect as a high school second baseman, a player has to have significant offensive upside. Yorke offers that with a 55-grade hit tool that ranks among the best in this year's high school class and some present power in his 6'0", 200-pound frame. Shoulder surgery during his junior season robbed him of what was once solid arm strength, and he has slid down the defensive spectrum as a result. That puts a ton of pressure on his bat, and with that comes some obvious risk. Grade: D- The Red Sox don't pick again until No. 89 overall, and most expected them to take a risk on a high school player as a result. But this pick was completely off the board. Yorke checked in outside the top 90 prospects on Baseball America (96) and MLB.com (139). He'll have to sign well-below-slot, and they'll have to come away with a couple of steals on Day 2 for this to make a lick of sense." I can't think of a site's opinion I care less about than Bleacher Report. Compared to, say, this one. ----- Ian and I recorded a podcast last night (should be up soon) in which our takeaway was this - just like Cannon last year, you can't judge this pick until we see what he signs for. I believe Bloom and Toboni were earnest in that they thought he was talented enough to be selected here, but $1.75-$2M would be a bonus commensurate with a pick in the 37-42 range. If they get him for that and can then give an average $1M bonus to their 3-5 round picks (or even higher bonuses in 3 and or 4 and sign a college guy in the 5th for like $75k), then the strategy could pay off. It's a gamble, but this shows that they probably thought after a few guys at the top (I am inclined to agree with those who've said that Abel was probably Plan A, based on what we've read), the draft was deeper than it was stacked at the top.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 9:47:10 GMT -5
1. New front office at the top so "trends" don't really matter. 2. What trend do you even think you're talking about? Middle infielders the Sox have taken in the top 10 rounds in the last few years: - Cameron Cannon - Matthew Lugo - Jarren Duran - Grant Williams - Brett Netzer - Tanner Nishioka - CJ Chatham - Santiago Espinal Williams and Nishioka were under slot signs, so throw them out (and honestly Nishioka has had a decent development relative to expectations). Espinal was a slightly less underslot guy but ended up being the chip that got us Steve Pearce, I consider that a win. Brett Netzer definitely underwhelmed relative to his draft position but I'd still say he has a non-zero chance of at least getting a cup of coffee. Duran is obviously a stud, outfielder now obviously but drafted as a second baseman. CJ Chatham was not a sexy pick but he'll play in the league at some point. And then the other two guys, Cannon and Lugo, have been in the system for a year. Yeah they didn't get off to the best start but if they're the basis for your disappointment then you're standing on extremely shaky ground. They still have a lot of time left and while I'm not crazy about either of them to write them off already makes literally no sense. Also, that doesn't nearly count as a "trend". So if you want to be underwhelmed by the pick, you go for it, but there's no logic behind what you're saying. Why are you stopping there? Go back to 2005 and look at middle infielders. TRASH Because it's disingenuous and illogical to assume that trends can carry over through completely different front offices but I'll humor you. Continuing with that same criteria: - Michael Chavis (major leaguer) - Deven Marrero (major leaguer) - Mike Miller (senior sign) - Mookie Betts (don't know much about him but he sounds decent) - Sean Coyle (didn't pan out) - Garin Cecchini (major leaguer) - David Renfroe (didn't pan out) - Casey Kelly (does this even count?) - Derrik Gibson (didn't pan out) - Ryan Dent (didn't pan out) - Kris Negron (major leaguer) - Jed Lowrie (major leaguer) So there are actually more guys who were major leaguers or senior signs than there were guys who busted entirely, so not only are you wrong about there being a trend of them taking trash middle infielders, you were actually as far off as possible. It seems like the Red Sox have had better success relative to other teams at drafting and developing middle infielders in the top 10 rounds. Of course, none of this matters anyway because like I said there have been about four different front offices during this time so there's no real such thing as "trends" between them other than random coincidences, but still it's amazing how far off you were. If you'd like to make an actual argument with facts as to why the organization has failed in this regard I will be waiting, but if you're going to keep baselessly whining I'll probably stop replying now.
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 11, 2020 10:12:31 GMT -5
The only way to grade this pick right now is with an incomplete. If they sign him for significant savings (which they are) and that allows them to sign three other guys at over slot then this pick is a win. Especially if you trust the scouting department and their view that he would have been a top 20 talent if the full season had been played. The Youkilis comp has me extremely excited. Any time you can add a Youk to your team is an absolute win.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2020 10:18:28 GMT -5
All: we went through and deleted a bunch of posts that violate our Forum Ground Rules. We will continue to immediately delete similar posts going forward.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 11, 2020 10:20:43 GMT -5
My initial shock has worn off and I feel better about this pick this morning.
I had my heart set on Abel, so I set myself up for some disappointment.
The writeups on Yorke have me encouraged and definitely make day 2 a lot more intriguing.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 11, 2020 10:27:26 GMT -5
If the best coach in college baseball thinks that « he’s the best hitter in HS » and « has an extreme hit skill » and the hit skill is by far the most important tool for me, who am I to question that pick?
I’m excited about what’s happening today!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 11, 2020 11:34:48 GMT -5
can someone in the know explain why MLB teams are reluctant to draft HS second baseman in the first round? I am gonna guess because the best HS players don't normally play 2nd base, or maybe it is because it is easier to transition top HS infield talent to 2nd ?
I am aware he didn't actually play that position, but they see him as that. I just would like to know the reasons MLB teams don't draft them in the 1st round, historically.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 11:37:14 GMT -5
Why are you stopping there? Go back to 2005 and look at middle infielders. TRASH Because it's disingenuous and illogical to assume that trends can carry over through completely different front offices but I'll humor you. Continuing with that same criteria: - Michael Chavis (major leaguer) - Deven Marrero (major leaguer) - Mike Miller (senior sign) - Mookie Betts (don't know much about him but he sounds decent) - Sean Coyle (didn't pan out) - Garin Cecchini (major leaguer) - David Renfroe (didn't pan out) - Casey Kelly (does this even count?) - Derrik Gibson (didn't pan out) - Ryan Dent (didn't pan out) - Kris Negron (major leaguer) - Jed Lowrie (major leaguer) So there are actually more guys who were major leaguers or senior signs than there were guys who busted entirely, so not only are you wrong about there being a trend of them taking trash middle infielders, you were actually as far off as possible. It seems like the Red Sox have had better success relative to other teams at drafting and developing middle infielders in the top 10 rounds. Of course, none of this matters anyway because like I said there have been about four different front offices during this time so there's no real such thing as "trends" between them other than random coincidences, but still it's amazing how far off you were. If you'd like to make an actual argument with facts as to why the organization has failed in this regard I will be waiting, but if you're going to keep baselessly whining I'll probably stop replying now. Mookie was a 5th round pick, they got lucky. Marrero was barely a major leaguer, and Chavis has as many hits as games suspended for PED's.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 11, 2020 11:41:11 GMT -5
If you hate how they draft so much, why on GGE would you follow their drafting? I can't imagine payting attention to something (that I don't need to) when it makes me that upset.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 11:43:02 GMT -5
If you hate how they draft so much, why on GGE would you follow their drafting? I can't imagine payting attention to something (that I don't need to) when it makes me that upset. Because I'm a huge fan of the team, and the only other sport going on RN is the Johnsonville Brat Cornhole Championship
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 11:47:10 GMT -5
Because it's disingenuous and illogical to assume that trends can carry over through completely different front offices but I'll humor you. Continuing with that same criteria: - Michael Chavis (major leaguer) - Deven Marrero (major leaguer) - Mike Miller (senior sign) - Mookie Betts (don't know much about him but he sounds decent) - Sean Coyle (didn't pan out) - Garin Cecchini (major leaguer) - David Renfroe (didn't pan out) - Casey Kelly (does this even count?) - Derrik Gibson (didn't pan out) - Ryan Dent (didn't pan out) - Kris Negron (major leaguer) - Jed Lowrie (major leaguer) So there are actually more guys who were major leaguers or senior signs than there were guys who busted entirely, so not only are you wrong about there being a trend of them taking trash middle infielders, you were actually as far off as possible. It seems like the Red Sox have had better success relative to other teams at drafting and developing middle infielders in the top 10 rounds. Of course, none of this matters anyway because like I said there have been about four different front offices during this time so there's no real such thing as "trends" between them other than random coincidences, but still it's amazing how far off you were. If you'd like to make an actual argument with facts as to why the organization has failed in this regard I will be waiting, but if you're going to keep baselessly whining I'll probably stop replying now. Mookie was a 5th round pick, they got lucky. Marrero was barely a major leaguer, and Chavis has as many hits as games suspended for PED's. Your frustration was that they drafted middle infielders that never played in the majors, and all three of those guys played in the majors. Just admit you were wrong.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 11:51:22 GMT -5
Mookie was a 5th round pick, they got lucky. Marrero was barely a major leaguer, and Chavis has as many hits as games suspended for PED's. Your frustration was that they drafted middle infielders that never played in the majors, and all three of those guys played in the majors. Just admit you were wrong. If you admit that Mookie was pure luck, and that Marrero had a negative WAR, we can agree to disagree
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 11:51:45 GMT -5
A couple notes from the pod: - Nice to hear that between them working him out in the winter and seeing over half of his games from the spring, they had a lot of time to evaluate him this season. Makes me feel a lot more comfortable that they really believe in the guy being a first-round talent in addition to the savings. - One of you guys pointed out that he didn't do a lot of PG events and how prospects that do can sometimes experience an arbitrary rankings bump and I think that's very important context when looking at PG's ranking for him, which is easily the lowest of the major outlets.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 11:52:18 GMT -5
Your frustration was that they drafted middle infielders that never played in the majors, and all three of those guys played in the majors. Just admit you were wrong. If you admit that Mookie was pure luck, and that Marrero had a negative WAR, we can agree to disagree It's almost all pure luck that's why you being so mad about it is so dumb lol
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 11, 2020 11:54:48 GMT -5
If he doesn’t like the way the Red Sox draft does he care to elaborate how many teams have been better at drafting and developing over the last two decades.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jun 11, 2020 11:56:50 GMT -5
I slept on it and I'm still not happy with the pick. If you all have managed to talk yourselves into it over night, then I envy you. BUT, I just don't like the strategy. I hate when teams in any sport get too cute in the 1st round of their drafts. Yes, the sports are different, but I still believe you should take the best player available.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 11:59:32 GMT -5
If he doesn’t like the way the Red Sox draft does he care to elaborate how many teams have been better at drafting and developing over the last two decades. Yeah, that's partially my point. When you're a fan of a team it's easy to see the things that didn't work out and then look at another team's successes and say "why can't we be like them!" but every team has their failures and the Red Sox have had less major failures that most teams. I mean hell, they had the best (or top 3? I can't remember) farm system in baseball a few years ago, and the only reason it's bad now is because they mortgaged it to win a World Series, WHICH THEY DID. And some people will STILL find ways to complain, it drives me absolutely crazy. Also, Fangraphs did a chart showing which teams drafted and then failed to sign the most talent, and finished sixth, leaving an approximate 6 wins per draft on the table (and that's with a WAR cutoff of 30 for the MLB players). Obviously that's bittersweet because it's players the Sox didn't get, but it shows that relative to other teams they generally have a better eye for talent.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 12:03:14 GMT -5
I slept on it and I'm still not happy with the pick. If you all have managed to talk yourselves into it over night, then I envy you. BUT, I just don't like the strategy. I hate when teams in any sport get too cute in the 1st round of their drafts. Yes, the sports are different, but I still believe you should take the best player available. Not unreasonably to be disappointed by the pick, best player available in all scenarios is certainly a respectable strategy (at least in the first round, you obviously don't go BPA in the 10th). But there's a difference between disappointed and petulantly crying about the pick and making up incorrect assertions for why it won't work. Not saying that's what you're doing but there are some (or at least one) that are and I think that's where the pro-Yorke or at least wait-and-see pushback is coming from on those who might not like the pick. One thing I want to add on BPA is that given all the reports that the Sox were locked onto Abel, I think it's clear they weren't eschewing the BPA approach. They must've just viewed the gap between Abel and PCA, Mitchell, etc. as large and liked Yorke enough to justify a different strategy. If Abel were on the board and they went with Yorke I'd be pretty upset but I don't think those other guys are big time enough prospects to where you take them 10 times out of 10 like I do Abel.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 11, 2020 12:28:07 GMT -5
So with this sub-slot pick of sub 100 playerYorke, have they essentially missed out on the rest of the high quality (i.e non-org/cup of coffee guys) college players?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 11, 2020 12:34:48 GMT -5
So with this sub-slot pick of sub 100 playerYorke, have they essentially missed out on the rest of the high quality (i.e non-org/cup of coffee guys) college players? No they’ll pick one with each of their next 3 picks.
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Post by ajs1994 on Jun 11, 2020 12:43:11 GMT -5
So with this sub-slot pick of sub 100 playerYorke, have they essentially missed out on the rest of the high quality (i.e non-org/cup of coffee guys) college players? I think there's a chance a draft eligible sophomore falls due to a big bonus demand and/or injury concerns. Maybe Cole Henry or JT Ginn? Barring that, I think you're right.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 12:49:18 GMT -5
So with this sub-slot pick of sub 100 playerYorke, have they essentially missed out on the rest of the high quality (i.e non-org/cup of coffee guys) college players? I think there's a chance a draft eligible sophomore falls due to a big bonus demand and/or injury concerns. Maybe Cole Henry or JT Ginn? Barring that, I think you're right. I'd imagine if JT Ginn doesn't go in the next 10 picks or so, he's going back to MSU.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2020 13:31:00 GMT -5
Your frustration was that they drafted middle infielders that never played in the majors, and all three of those guys played in the majors. Just admit you were wrong. If you admit that Mookie was pure luck, and that Marrero had a negative WAR, we can agree to disagree You're approaching drafting like the teams get into a room with a list of names pulled from Baseball America's draft rankings having never seen any of them before, except maybe videos online of some of the top guys. No, Mookie Betts was not a "lucky" pick. If you read Alex Speier's book, it goes into the amount of work Danny Watkins did scouting him. To say any draft pick is "lucky" is to completely discount the entire scouting process and act like it doesn't exist. The Red Sox haven't drafted and developed a middle infielder since Pedroia. You can say they at least drafted Betts as a shortstop and he became a stud, just not in the middle infield. What's your point? Would you like them to stop drafting middle infielders? Give up on it? It's not clear what your point is unless you're just trying to pick fights. You have made clear you do not like this pick. That's fine! That's certainly a defensible opinion. You apparently also seem to think they suck at drafting (the almost entirely homegrown lineup that won the 2018 WS seems to be a strong argument against your point, but whatever) or something. You're entitled to that opinion although the numbers don't even remotely bear that out. If you have a point to make, please actually make the point, because you're not doing anything other than kvetching right now, and this really isn't the forum for that. If they suck at drafting middle infielders, please point out the middle infielders they should have drafted instead. Show that they're actually worse than other teams at drafting middle infielders and that it's not just the normal failure rate of prospects that you're angry about. But don't just whine about it and get in arguments with people. Thanks.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 11, 2020 13:37:19 GMT -5
I think there's a chance a draft eligible sophomore falls due to a big bonus demand and/or injury concerns. Maybe Cole Henry or JT Ginn? Barring that, I think you're right. I'd imagine if JT Ginn doesn't go in the next 10 picks or so, he's going back to MSU. Unless some team has the money to pay him like he's going in the next 10 picks (wink, wink).
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 13:38:51 GMT -5
If you admit that Mookie was pure luck, and that Marrero had a negative WAR, we can agree to disagree You're approaching drafting like the teams get into a room with a list of names pulled from Baseball America's draft rankings having never seen any of them before, except maybe videos online of some of the top guys. No, Mookie Betts was not a "lucky" pick. If you read Alex Speier's book, it goes into the amount of work Danny Watkins did scouting him. To say any draft pick is "lucky" is to completely discount the entire scouting process and act like it doesn't exist. The Red Sox haven't drafted and developed a middle infielder since Pedroia. You can say they at least drafted Betts as a shortstop and he became a stud, just not in the middle infield. What's your point? Would you like them to stop drafting middle infielders? Give up on it? It's not clear what your point is unless you're just trying to pick fights. You have made clear you do not like this pick. That's fine! That's certainly a defensible opinion. You apparently also seem to think they suck at drafting (the almost entirely homegrown lineup that won the 2018 WS seems to be a strong argument against your point, but whatever) or something. You're entitled to that opinion although the numbers don't even remotely bear that out. If you have a point to make, please actually make the point, because you're not doing anything other than kvetching right now, and this really isn't the forum for that. If they suck at drafting middle infielders, please point out the middle infielders they should have drafted instead. Show that they're actually worse than other teams at drafting middle infielders and that it's not just the normal failure rate of prospects that you're angry about. But don't just whine about it and get in arguments with people. Thanks. I literally said they are good at drafting all the other positions.
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