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Let’s Go Shopping - 2020-21 FAs
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Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 17, 2020 10:17:35 GMT -5
People are so desperate to grab on to something that the overreaction to Munoz is actually insane.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2020 10:23:10 GMT -5
People are so desperate to grab on to something that the overreaction to Munoz is actually insane. I'm sure for a little while there was Bob Zupcic fever back in 1992. lol Remember the Pedro Ciriaco love from 2012? lol again.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2020 10:24:03 GMT -5
Not when he's rocking a .186 ISO. I'll bet next spring he's in direct competition with Benintendi for the starting LF job even before considering 2B. That's great but we're talking 40 something ABs here. Conversely I'm not holding Benintendi's 40 something ABs against him. The real concern for me re: Benintendi is that he hasn't really hit well since the second half of 2018. That worries me more than the 40 ABs, although those 40 ABs didn't exactly make me feel better. Forgetting the numbers and just going by what you've seen, who do you think is the better hitter ? The basic numbers for Munoz have changed significantly over the past three years. I can't remember him prior to seeing him at the alt site but there's no way this is the same approach as his past.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2020 10:27:37 GMT -5
People are so desperate to grab on to something that the overreaction to Munoz is actually insane. I'm sure for a little while there was Bob Zupcic fever back in 1992. lol Remember the Pedro Ciriaco love from 2012? lol again. For point of reference, I've been on Munoz before he was even called up to Boston but think what you want.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2020 10:33:33 GMT -5
I'm sure for a little while there was Bob Zupcic fever back in 1992. lol Remember the Pedro Ciriaco love from 2012? lol again. For point of reference, I've been on Munoz before he was even called up to Boston but think what you want. Ok. Hopefully you're right. I don't trust my eyes much to be honest. My guess is that right now Munoz's hit tool might be better than Benitendi because Benintendi is whiffing a lot more than he has in the past. I know he's hitting everything on the button right now, but I know sooner or later that slows down and if you're not patient at the plate you're going to be a decent BA low OBP hitter. I'll respect your scouting report and I do think he can be useful, but I'm not convinced by a small sample size of what I've seen (and yes, I'll acknowledge you have seen him longer than I have so ultimately you might be right), but I'll hold off from my end on declaring him to be more than a useful utility guy - which does have value as we've seen the Red Sox cycle through those guys too.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2020 10:46:39 GMT -5
I don't expect him to keep hitting .350 but what I see is a player that swings hard, has a very high contact rate and puts the ball in the air. Good things happen when you do that. It's pretty simple really, has nothing to do with mechanics (Benni has perfect mechanics) or past or present statistics, just game action.
And by the way, if you notice, he doesn't see many fastballs. Arroyo sees a lot of fastballs.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 17, 2020 11:15:30 GMT -5
He's a guy with a high BA but a crazy BABIP and literally no walks. His career xwOBA is .285, and even this season it's only .304. I appreciate philsbosoxfan's eyeball assessment, but is there any other reason to think he's more than what his peripherals make him seem to be? E.g., how highly regarded was he as a prospect?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2020 12:39:39 GMT -5
He's a guy with a high BA but a crazy BABIP and literally no walks. His career xwOBA is .285, and even this season it's only .304. I appreciate philsbosoxfan's eyeball assessment, but is there any other reason to think he's more than what his peripherals make him seem to be? E.g., how highly regarded was he as a prospect? SSS but he puts the ball in play in 77% of his plate appearances and when he hits the ball 12.1% soft contact, 36.4% medium contact, 51.5% hard contact. The numbers match the eyeballs. By comparison and even more SSS Arroyo puts the ball in play in 69% of his plate appearances and when he hits the ball 11.1% soft contact, 50.0% medium contact, 38.9% hard contact. Also decent numbers.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 17, 2020 12:45:09 GMT -5
I wonder if the Rockies IFA money could be used as a trade chip? Every year it seems there is a flurry of trades of guys who won't make their respective clubs 40 man roster. Even though Boston will have a higher slot to claim players I wonder if Bloom would use this to grab players he likes before they go on the waiver wire. The IFA money is for the 2019-2020 period, so it has to be spent by October 15 (less than a month away).
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 17, 2020 13:07:37 GMT -5
I wonder if the Rockies IFA money could be used as a trade chip? Every year it seems there is a flurry of trades of guys who won't make their respective clubs 40 man roster. Even though Boston will have a higher slot to claim players I wonder if Bloom would use this to grab players he likes before they go on the waiver wire. The IFA money is for the 2019-2020 period, so it has to be spent by October 15 (less than a month away). Thank you for the clarification!
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 17, 2020 13:40:12 GMT -5
I interrupt this thread with a song from its sponsor, Sultans of Ping, F.C. -
This song has been IN MY HEAD since it was started. Finally had to share.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 17, 2020 16:00:55 GMT -5
I'd really only be in on a few bigger ticket FA's this offseason as 2021 is looking like a much better class.
Pitchers:
Trevor Bauer - if he is actually going to take a short term deal. Ken Giles or Lance Hendricks - need a closer, wouldn't spend a ton on either but like Giles if he is healthy. Keione Kela - potential set up man with barnes as the other. One of the younger late inning options in this class.
Position Players:
JT Realmuto - Would be an upgrade over CV and would also allow the sox trade CV to a team that needs a catcher. Upgrade at catcher and pick up some nice prospects. Win win.
That's really it. No point reaching for any of the other bigger names out there. Trades would make more sense. Lets see what guys like Duran, downs, dalbec, mata etc can do next year. Save money for the 2021 class.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 17, 2020 16:15:58 GMT -5
I'd really only be in on a few bigger ticket FA's this offseason as 2021 is looking like a much better class. Pitchers: Trevor Bauer - if he is actually going to take a short term deal. Ken Giles or Lance Hendricks - need a closer, wouldn't spend a ton on either but like Giles if he is healthy. Keione Kela - potential set up man with barnes as the other. One of the younger late inning options in this class. Position Players: JT Realmuto - Would be an upgrade over CV and would also allow the sox trade CV to a team that needs a catcher. Upgrade at catcher and pick up some nice prospects. Win win. That's really it. No point reaching for any of the other bigger names out there. Trades would make more sense. Lets see what guys like Duran, downs, dalbec, mata etc can do next year. Save money for the 2021 class. I like Vazquez and would be sad to see him go, but it has occurred to me that this Realmuto gambit would be a pretty clever move.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 17, 2020 17:34:50 GMT -5
I'd really only be in on a few bigger ticket FA's this offseason as 2021 is looking like a much better class. Pitchers: Trevor Bauer - if he is actually going to take a short term deal. Ken Giles or Lance Hendricks - need a closer, wouldn't spend a ton on either but like Giles if he is healthy. Keione Kela - potential set up man with barnes as the other. One of the younger late inning options in this class. Position Players: JT Realmuto - Would be an upgrade over CV and would also allow the sox trade CV to a team that needs a catcher. Upgrade at catcher and pick up some nice prospects. Win win. That's really it. No point reaching for any of the other bigger names out there. Trades would make more sense. Lets see what guys like Duran, downs, dalbec, mata etc can do next year. Save money for the 2021 class. I like Vazquez and would be sad to see him go, but it has occurred to me that this Realmuto gambit would be a pretty clever move. Depends what he is looking for money and years. Id rather keep CV bcs I know JT is going to want at least double what vaz gets. Unless we are talking a mlb top 100 pitching prospects not worth it in my opinion.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2020 19:35:02 GMT -5
I like Vazquez and would be sad to see him go, but it has occurred to me that this Realmuto gambit would be a pretty clever move. Depends what he is looking for money and years. Id rather keep CV bcs I know JT is going to want at least double what vaz gets. Unless we are talking a mlb top 100 pitching prospects not worth it in my opinion. For Realmuto, the pundits are already talking about a bidding war between Philadelphia and Mets if Cohen gets to buy them.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 17, 2020 21:52:48 GMT -5
Cohen could literally change the off-season if he acts the the new Dodger owners did.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 17, 2020 22:03:55 GMT -5
One guy we should not sign in free agency is Workman; he looks done (praise Bloom for getting value for him and Hembree). I'm currently watching him give up a long home run and an RBI triple to bust open a tie game with the Mets in the 9th, and now hes pulled.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 17, 2020 23:34:55 GMT -5
One guy we should not sign in free agency is Workman; he looks done (praise Bloom for getting value for him and Hembree). I'm currently watching him give up a long home run and an RBI triple to bust open a tie game with the Mets in the 9th, and now hes pulled. He's basically had one good season in his career. Only one season with a FIP under 4.40 since 2013. His BB/9 have also increased each of the last 3 seasons, and even in his good year was 5.65. Hembree actually has a lower career ERA. So yeah, Bloom did a pretty good job there.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 18, 2020 5:51:59 GMT -5
One guy we should not sign in free agency is Workman; he looks done (praise Bloom for getting value for him and Hembree). I'm currently watching him give up a long home run and an RBI triple to bust open a tie game with the Mets in the 9th, and now hes pulled. He's basically had one good season in his career. Only one season with a FIP under 4.40 since 2013. His BB/9 have also increased each of the last 3 seasons, and even in his good year was 5.65. Hembree actually has a lower career ERA. So yeah, Bloom did a pretty good job there. I feel the same way about jbj he gives you zero value at his price point. You can literally sign a player at half the price and get the same value bringing him back is useless. Move on from him asap. Same goes for Dustin see ya dont let him hold down another spot for a season he will not be contributing in.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 18, 2020 8:59:56 GMT -5
One guy we should not sign in free agency is Workman; he looks done (praise Bloom for getting value for him and Hembree). I'm currently watching him give up a long home run and an RBI triple to bust open a tie game with the Mets in the 9th, and now hes pulled. He's basically had one good season in his career. Only one season with a FIP under 4.40 since 2013. His BB/9 have also increased each of the last 3 seasons, and even in his good year was 5.65. Hembree actually has a lower career ERA. So yeah, Bloom did a pretty good job there. I always felt that last year was the perfect storm of everything going perfectly for Workman. Don't want to say he was lucky, but you knew he wouldn't go the season only surrendering a HR or seemingly never giving up a hit. You knew the walks were an issue last year and that sooner or later the hits and long balls would materialize and the ERA wouldn't be so squeaky clean. The Sox were smart to get rid of him. Like I've said before I'll always wonder if the Sox could have included Workman in that big Mookie trade as a way of keeping Graterol or at least getting some pitching from them, but perhaps Bloom tried that and the Dodgers foresaw what we're seeing now. Either way, at least he likely got something useful, we hope, from the Phillies with Pivetta and Seabold. I've always liked Workman but have no major desire to see the Sox try to bring him back. I suspect they won't.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 18, 2020 12:22:32 GMT -5
He's basically had one good season in his career. Only one season with a FIP under 4.40 since 2013. His BB/9 have also increased each of the last 3 seasons, and even in his good year was 5.65. Hembree actually has a lower career ERA. So yeah, Bloom did a pretty good job there. I feel the same way about jbj he gives you zero value at his price point. You can literally sign a player at half the price and get the same value bringing him back is useless. Move on from him asap. Same goes for Dustin see ya dont let him hold down another spot for a season he will not be contributing in. Well that seems completely disanalogous. JBJ has averaged about 2 WAR throughout his career, if you don't count his career year in 2016. He's provided surplus value to the team every season of his career. Arbitration has treated him kindly, but if he can be signed at $5-7million/year on a relatively short deal that's very good value.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 18, 2020 16:04:26 GMT -5
Depends what he is looking for money and years. Id rather keep CV bcs I know JT is going to want at least double what vaz gets. Unless we are talking a mlb top 100 pitching prospects not worth it in my opinion. For Realmuto, the pundits are already talking about a bidding war between Philadelphia and Mets if Cohen gets to buy them. Ya if that's the case then the bidding could get out of hand quick depending on how much those teams are willing to spend on him. That being said, one could argue that there is value for the sox in outbidding those teams for Realmuto even if the bidding gets pricey. If the sox are able to land him without paying an astronomical figure, they would then have those two teams as desperate suitors for Vazquez. On top of that you have a team like the rays who were very interested at the deadline and surely would be in the offseason as well. Its an interesting situation to say the least. I think Realmuto would be a worthwhile investment given his impact on both sides of the ball and the scarcity of impact catchers in the game today. We also don't have a long term catcher of the future type in the minors so adding Realmuto would mitigate that need for years to come. Springer I would want no part of. There are much better bats in the 2021 fa class that I would save my money for. And we have duran on the cusp along with Rosario and jimenez down the line. Would rather see how duran does before investing in cf.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 18, 2020 17:01:07 GMT -5
I'd like them to sign a Bill Mueller, a Shane Victorino, and maybe even a mediocre Ryan Dempster.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 18, 2020 17:37:03 GMT -5
I feel the same way about jbj he gives you zero value at his price point. You can literally sign a player at half the price and get the same value bringing him back is useless. Move on from him asap. Same goes for Dustin see ya dont let him hold down another spot for a season he will not be contributing in. Well that seems completely disanalogous. JBJ has averaged about 2 WAR throughout his career, if you don't count his career year in 2016. He's provided surplus value to the team every season of his career. Arbitration has treated him kindly, but if he can be signed at $5-7million/year on a relatively short deal that's very good value. So you think jbj will take half of what he was suppose to make this season for a one year deal? All I have ever heard was hes looking for a deal similar to kiermaier.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 19, 2020 19:26:30 GMT -5
I see this off-season as a test of CB's ability to put together a competitive team within some tight financial parameters. It would be unwise to go over the $210M LT threshold. I expect the slowest FA market in history with a lot of decent players (particulary RPs) unsigned in Feb. and forced to take short-term, low-money deals. Billions of dollars in lost revenue and uncertainty about next year's revenues will have a dramatic impact on any industry. That will play to CB's advantage because I think he has a keen eye for low-priced talent. FG has us ( www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox) the 2021 payroll at $138M, not counting arb eligibles. I'll assume that E-Rod gets a raise from $8.3M to ~$11M, putting the projected payroll at $149M. I'd like to see them: - Finish the Wil Myers trade with SD. According to reports, this was going to add about $3M in AAV. Let's snag a CB pick along with Luis Campuasano. This is high on my priorities list. Tax hit: $3M.
- Move JDM. Eating money would suck but that's where his bad season has put us. Offer him around with a $10M 2021 subsidy. If he bounces back at all, the acquiring team won't have to worry about his 2022 salary. He'll opt out. Tax savings: $10M.
- Chase T. Bauer, who has said he wants short-term contracts. Does 2 year/$40M do it? In this catastrophic economic environment, it might. Tax hit: $20M.
- Buy out X's options by adding $5M/year to his deal and sign RD long-term at an AAV of ~$16. Tax hit: $21M.
- Sign JBJ or a player of similar value to play CF. Tax hit: $6M.
- Non-tender Barnes, Paraza, Brasier and other assorted arb eligibles.
- That leaves a payroll of about $189M, giving CB about $12M to sign BP arms and bench guys and make mid-season acquisitions. The bench would be important, as I am going without a dedicated DH. We'd need a mix of platoon bats on the bench to fill that role. If they are willing to go over the LT threshold (as I said, I am not), they could chase Marcell Ozuna.
Lineup: 1B - B-Bombs 2B - Arroyo. (Have to go cheap here.) SS - X 3B - A slimmed-down RD LF- Beni CF - JBJ RF - Verdugo C - Vaz DH - Myers and an undervalued guy or two whom CB likes. Fourth OFer - Myers.
Rotation: Bauer Eo Perez Houck, Pivetta, Darwinzon, E-Rod (not counting on him, as Covid remains mysterious), maybe even Seabold, Sale (starting in June), openers, and guys we haven't heard of yet would get starts in the fourth and fifth slots.
It's not a sure-fire contender, but it's the best I got in what I see as a bridge year. Things will get better as the (Pedroia after 2021), Price (after 2022) and Eo (after 2022) contracts expire and we start to get real impact from the farm CB is building.
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