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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2020 15:03:16 GMT -5
Everyone was on the juice back then, heck I bet more people than you'd expect are on it now. No one knows 100% who was or wasn't on it. Nevermind all the crazy stuff the old timers took. For me you just vote in the best players. Bonds and Clemens weren't HOF talent based on just steroids. Let's also not forget those guys helped Baseball, it was good for the sport. End this craziness and clear the backlog.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2020 15:35:26 GMT -5
Everyone was on the juice back then, heck I bet more people than you'd expect are on it now. No one knows 100% who was or wasn't on it. Nevermind all the crazy stuff the old timers took. For me you just vote in the best players. Bonds and Clemens weren't HOF talent based on just steroids. Let's also not forget those guys helped Baseball, it was good for the sport. End this craziness and clear the backlog. Where do you stand on Sammy Sosa or Rafael Palmeiro? HOF talent if not for the steroids or doesn't matter? How about Manny Ramirez and now Cano, busted after all of those rules went into affect?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2020 17:05:44 GMT -5
Everyone was on the juice back then, heck I bet more people than you'd expect are on it now. No one knows 100% who was or wasn't on it. Nevermind all the crazy stuff the old timers took. For me you just vote in the best players. Bonds and Clemens weren't HOF talent based on just steroids. Let's also not forget those guys helped Baseball, it was good for the sport. End this craziness and clear the backlog. Where do you stand on Sammy Sosa or Rafael Palmeiro? HOF talent if not for the steroids or doesn't matter? How about Manny Ramirez and now Cano, busted after all of those rules went into affect? I'd have to do some research to give you an informed answer, yet off the top of my head. No on Sosa, I feel his one skill was the result of steroids. Yes on Palmeiro, yes on Manny. Now Cano is different, while I think a bunch of guys are doing them now, it's not the whole league like 20 years ago. I think positive tests now are much worse than just after they passed new rules. Maybe that's not fair, yet I'm drawing a line. You get a pass if you spent a large portion of your career in the steroid era as long as I think you'd be a HOF without them. So I'm going to say no, yet get if others say yes. He certainly has HOF numbers like bwar With Sosa what besides HRs is HOF worthy? Even with all those HRs he's still not close on bwar. He doesn't have 3,000 hits like Palmeiro, he wasn't one of the best hitters of his generation like Manny. Maybe I'm selling him short with guys like Harold Baines in the HOF.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2020 17:31:23 GMT -5
Where do you stand on Sammy Sosa or Rafael Palmeiro? HOF talent if not for the steroids or doesn't matter? How about Manny Ramirez and now Cano, busted after all of those rules went into affect? I'd have to do some research to give you an informed answer, yet off the top of my head. No on Sosa, I feel his one skill was the result of steroids. Yes on Palmeiro, yes on Manny. Now Cano is different, while I think a bunch of guys are doing them now, it's not the whole league like 20 years ago. I think positive tests now are much worse than just after they passed new rules. Maybe that's not fair, yet I'm drawing a line. You get a pass if you spent a large portion of your career in the steroid era as long as I think you'd be a HOF without them. So I'm going to say no, yet get if others say yes. He certainly has HOF numbers like bwar With Sosa what besides HRs is HOF worthy? Even with all those HRs he's still not close on bwar. He doesn't have 3,000 hits like Palmeiro, he wasn't one of the best hitters of his generation like Manny. Maybe I'm selling him short with guys like Harold Baines in the HOF. Manny got busted twice after the rules were put in place - like Cano. Why is Manny a yes and Cano a no in your book? Is it because Manny had the bulk of his career when he was most successful before the rules were implemented? And as far as Baines goes, well that's a ridiculous selection and we all knew it was - thank you current White Sox manager. It almost makes me feel really bad for Baines who was truly a really good hitter and not deserving of the scorn he got for getting in. If you use Baines it just lowers the bar so drastically on what is acceptable for a HOFer. Let's face it - in fairness to Baines he's not the only one in the HOF that makes you wonder what the hell he's doing in there? There are numerous others. You'd just think in this day an age better judgment would prevail, but LaRussa did some serious convincing of at least 11 others in the room and Baines got his votes. I guess Frankie Frisch did a lot of that as well when he was on the Veterans' committee, putting his ex-teammates in. And we all know that Ted Williams demanded that Phil Rizzuto be put in the HOF. And who the hell would ever be crazy enough to tell Ted Williams no? At least the HOF speech was entertaining.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2020 18:03:15 GMT -5
Simple Manny came into the MLB in 1993, Cano 2005. I'm not punishing a guy who spent the majority of his career under one set of rules, that then changed. With Cano it was illegal before he even played a single game, so he doesn't get a pass on that.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 19, 2020 18:32:56 GMT -5
Schilling is a sure thing this year. If he doesn't make it, it would mean nobody gets elected and that has rarely happened. He was at 70 percent last year and with no competition from first-timers, he'll get in with room to spare. .... I feel nothing about Schilling making it, though I would vote for him. But his speech could be entertaining in a sick spectacle sort of way. Great P, disgusting person. "Rope. Tree. Journalist. Some Assembly Required” “Ok, so much awesome here . . .” LOL.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2020 13:17:45 GMT -5
The only guys I would definitely disqualify are non-HOF talents that used PED's to put up HOF numbers. That's probably McGwire and Palmeiro, and maybe Sosa.
At the other end, Manny Ramirez is a guy, who for all his genius at hitting, had trouble depositing his paychecks. The notion that he was beating the testing for a while and then got caught some years later is hard to make sense of. This is a guy whose love for the game is off the charts, and using PEDs in order to keep playing (and not have to face the world) seems more admirable than problematical to me, in a sad sort of way.
I'd have to know more about Cano, but the fact is that he had HOF numbers before he tested positive. Does he have Manny's motivation? Did he juice because he didn't want to let the club down by not being worth his contract, and his teammates who were counting on him to contribute? Or is it an ego thing, or even a money thing? I'm a lot less sympathetic to him if his rationale for juicing was essentially selfish, but I suspect it was closer to Manny's. (And as the guy on the MFY's who was always compared to Pedroia, I have no innate fondness for him at all.)
Clemens and Bonds should have been in a while ago.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2020 13:25:57 GMT -5
The only guys I would definitely disqualify are non-HOF talents that used PED's to put up HOF numbers. That's definitely Palmeiro, probably McGwire, and maybe Sosa.
At the other end, Manny Ramirez is a guy, who for all his genius at hitting, had trouble depositing his paychecks. The notion that he was beating the testing for a while and then got caught some years later is hard to make sense of. This is a guy whose love for the game is off the charts, and using PEDs in order to keep playing (and not have to face the world) seems more admirable than problematical to me, in a sad sort of way.
I'd have to know more about Cano, but the fact is that he had HOF numbers before he tested positive. Does he have Manny's motivation? Did he juice because he didn't want to let the club down by not being worth his contract, and his teammates who were counting on him to contribute? Or is it an ego thing, or even a money thing? I'm a lot less sympathetic to him if his rationale for juicing was essentially selfish, but I suspect it was closer to Manny's. (And as the guy on the MFY's who was always compared to Pedroia, I have no innate fondness for him at all.)
Clemens and Bonds should have been in a while ago.
So PEDs gave Palmeiro over 3,000 hits and made him a gold glove defender? Why didn't they do that for McGwire and Sosa?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2020 13:44:29 GMT -5
This discussion has reminded me ...
Ordinarily, there's a predictable relationship between P/PA and K and BB rates. That's almost "duh", right? If you know the last two, you know the first.
I stumbled on the fact that the relationship was different in the PED era. (I forget in which direction!)
B-Ref has the full breakdown of pitches for each season starting in 1988, so we should be able to figure out exactly what changed.
Might it be possible to look at the relevant stats for every player, every year, and get a handle on who was juicing and who wasn't? Combine that with changes in HR/Contact, and you might be able to identify the users.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2020 14:00:38 GMT -5
The only guys I would definitely disqualify are non-HOF talents that used PED's to put up HOF numbers. That's definitely Palmeiro, probably McGwire, and maybe Sosa.
At the other end, Manny Ramirez is a guy, who for all his genius at hitting, had trouble depositing his paychecks. The notion that he was beating the testing for a while and then got caught some years later is hard to make sense of. This is a guy whose love for the game is off the charts, and using PEDs in order to keep playing (and not have to face the world) seems more admirable than problematical to me, in a sad sort of way.
I'd have to know more about Cano, but the fact is that he had HOF numbers before he tested positive. Does he have Manny's motivation? Did he juice because he didn't want to let the club down by not being worth his contract, and his teammates who were counting on him to contribute? Or is it an ego thing, or even a money thing? I'm a lot less sympathetic to him if his rationale for juicing was essentially selfish, but I suspect it was closer to Manny's. (And as the guy on the MFY's who was always compared to Pedroia, I have no innate fondness for him at all.)
Clemens and Bonds should have been in a while ago.
So PEDs gave Palmeiro over 3,000 hits and made him a gold glove defender? Why didn't they do that for McGwire and Sosa? There is the accusation by Canseco, and the positive test ... and his denials. He had a huge spike in his home run rate after his first two years in Texas, but I looked again at his numbers and it had been higher in his last year with the Cubs, plus there was an intermediate year in the spike. So I edited my post and moved him into the possibly category.
Anyone whose HR rate spiked in this era is suspect. Without the extra HRs he doesn't play long enough to get to 3,000 hits and he's basically Mark Grace.
According to TotalZone, Palmeiro saved 12.0 runs per season in his five best defensive years at 1B. Sosa saved 24.4 in RF. He's one of three guys with better numbers than Dewey (Clemente, and Brian Jordan). Palmeiro has the 6th best numbers at 1B in the pre-UZR era (Scott, Hernandez, Vic Power, Pete O'Brien, John Olerud), but it's a much less important position defensively.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2020 14:03:51 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2020 14:46:02 GMT -5
So PEDs gave Palmeiro over 3,000 hits and made him a gold glove defender? Why didn't they do that for McGwire and Sosa? There is the accusation by Canseco, and the positive test ... and his denials. He had a huge spike in his home run rate after his first two years in Texas, but I looked again at his numbers and it had been higher in his last year with the Cubs, plus there was an intermediate year in the spike. So I edited my post and moved him into the possibly category.
Anyone whose HR rate spiked in this era is suspect. Without the extra HRs he doesn't play long enough to get to 3,000 hits and he's basically Mark Grace.
According to TotalZone, Palmeiro saved 12.0 runs per season in his five best defensive years at 1B. Sosa saved 24.4 in RF. He's one of three guys with better numbers than Dewey (Clemente, and Brian Jordan). Palmeiro has the 6th best numbers at 1B in the pre-UZR era (Scott, Hernandez, Vic Power, Pete O'Brien, John Olerud), but it's a much less important position defensively.
Canseco said 85% of Baseball was taking steroids. You really think Steroids added 400 HRs for Palmeiro? That's about the difference from Grace. Guys develop power in their mid twenties, that happens all the time. I feel darn certain all three used, so this is comparing three steroid users. Two players got most of their value from HRs, Palmeiro was by far the best pure hitter. 3,000 hits, 500 plus HR and 3 GG. He also has the highest bwar of the three and it's not really close. McGwire has 1600 hits. Steroids help, yet for me the biggest thing is staying healthy and some performance enhancement. Not that they add 400 HRs. That seems crazy extreme.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2020 14:53:34 GMT -5
The only guys I would definitely disqualify are non-HOF talents that used PED's to put up HOF numbers. That's definitely Palmeiro, probably McGwire, and maybe Sosa.
At the other end, Manny Ramirez is a guy, who for all his genius at hitting, had trouble depositing his paychecks. The notion that he was beating the testing for a while and then got caught some years later is hard to make sense of. This is a guy whose love for the game is off the charts, and using PEDs in order to keep playing (and not have to face the world) seems more admirable than problematical to me, in a sad sort of way.
I'd have to know more about Cano, but the fact is that he had HOF numbers before he tested positive. Does he have Manny's motivation? Did he juice because he didn't want to let the club down by not being worth his contract, and his teammates who were counting on him to contribute? Or is it an ego thing, or even a money thing? I'm a lot less sympathetic to him if his rationale for juicing was essentially selfish, but I suspect it was closer to Manny's. (And as the guy on the MFY's who was always compared to Pedroia, I have no innate fondness for him at all.)
Clemens and Bonds should have been in a while ago.
So PEDs gave Palmeiro over 3,000 hits and made him a gold glove defender? Why didn't they do that for McGwire and Sosa? This made me curious to look up his numbers, and boy is he a testament to how far you can get by just never getting injured. He played at least 152 games in every single season from 1988 to 2004 other than the strike-shortened ones. A single pulled hammy and maybe he doesn't make it to 3,000. Of course he was very good, too, but also just incredibly consistent. Between 37 and 47 homers a year, every from, from 1993 to 2003 except for strike-shortened '94. Never a wRC+ below 105, never a season between 1990 and 2002 where he put up less than 3 fWAR.
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Post by manfred on Nov 20, 2020 17:19:45 GMT -5
I agree with Eric: McGuire and Sosa no way, Palmeiro no way. The first two guys were not even close without ‘roids. McGuire was actually a pretty bad player but for his power. He was a softball player who feasted on hanging breaking balls.
Palmeiro looks different because of “skills” stats.... average, hits, etc. But his numbers make a demonstrable jump post age 30. It happens, but a steroids guy who does that is suspicious. If he’d declined more, dare I say, naturally, his numbers would look different.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 21, 2020 8:32:56 GMT -5
My ballot:
Schilling Helton Rolen Andruw Jones Sheffield Clemens Bonds Ramírez
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2020 14:55:52 GMT -5
My ballot: Schilling Helton Rolen Andruw Jones Sheffield Clemens Bonds Ramírez I've got the same, except Bobby Abreu instead of Sheffield.
Now, in my Hall Worthiness metric, Sheffield has an edge, 61.9 to 60.4. Statistically, Sheffield is probably just over and Abreu just under a reasonable small-Hall criteria.
But Sheffield was definitely an asshole earlier in his career. If there any reports that he became a good teammate later, and apologized for being a bad one, I'll rethink him. But so many better guys have been passed over already ... I mean, you can't let him in while Dick Allen (66.8) is out.
Abreu is not perceived as having had a borderline HOF career, in large part because every walk he drew was invisible to the sporting press. But he was a greater player than Dave Winfield (59.3), for instance. I'm voting to keep him on the ballot and get him some deserved attention.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 21, 2020 18:05:47 GMT -5
My ballot: Schilling Helton Rolen Andruw Jones Sheffield Clemens Bonds Ramírez I've got the same, except Bobby Abreu instead of Sheffield.
Now, in my Hall Worthiness metric, Sheffield has an edge, 61.9 to 60.4. Statistically, Sheffield is probably just over and Abreu just under a reasonable small-Hall criteria.
But Sheffield was definitely an asshole earlier in his career. If there any reports that he became a good teammate later, and apologized for being a bad one, I'll rethink him. But so many better guys have been passed over already ... I mean, you can't let him in while Dick Allen (66.8) is out.
Abreu is not perceived as having had a borderline HOF career, in large part because every walk he drew was invisible to the sporting press. But he was a greater player than Dave Winfield (59.3), for instance. I'm voting to keep him on the ballot and get him some deserved attention.
Abreu's kind of a tricky one. He had only 7 seasons with 4+ fWAR, which all came in a row. Admittedly, he also had 7 seasons of 5+ fWAR. But also 0 seasons of 7+ fWAR. Never had a 1.000 OPS season; maxed out at 31 HRs; didn't add much on defense. Basically he had an excellent peak run, but was never really transcendent, and then he was no more than pretty good outside that peak. On reflection I'd probably vote him in, but it's understandable that he doesn't get more buzz.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 22, 2020 6:45:26 GMT -5
My ballot: Schilling Helton Rolen Andruw Jones Sheffield Clemens Bonds Ramírez I've got the same, except Bobby Abreu instead of Sheffield. Now, in my Hall Worthiness metric, Sheffield has an edge, 61.9 to 60.4. Statistically, Sheffield is probably just over and Abreu just under a reasonable small-Hall criteria. But Sheffield was definitely an asshole earlier in his career. If there any reports that he became a good teammate later, and apologized for being a bad one, I'll rethink him. But so many better guys have been passed over already ... I mean, you can't let him in while Dick Allen (66.8) is out.
Abreu is not perceived as having had a borderline HOF career, in large part because every walk he drew was invisible to the sporting press. But he was a greater player than Dave Winfield (59.3), for instance. I'm voting to keep him on the ballot and get him some deserved attention.
Sheffield was definitely perceived as a jerk during his career. No doubt about that. He did write an article explaining his feelings and motivations, but I don’t think he apologizes once in the article. He does say he forgave the coach who he chased with a baseball bat for suspending him. www.theplayerstribune.com/articles/gary-sheffield-where-im-coming-fromI would also put Dick Allen in the hall of fame. I am unbothered by Sheffield and Allen not being in the hall of fame. Of those guys on my list, I’d drop Sheffield first.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 22, 2020 13:00:27 GMT -5
I'd point out it wasn't just hitters who used Steroids. Depending how many people you thought were doing it that can make a big difference when looking at that period.
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Post by billyw on Nov 23, 2020 11:16:29 GMT -5
I would like to point out to some of you who are discussing the "jump" for players should not get after they turn 30. Here are a list of players who seemed to have that jump but have never been linked to steroids.
1. Dwight Evans 2. Paul Molitor (HOF) twice went to rehab for Cocaine use and could not stay healthy in his twenties. 3. Andre Dawson (HOF) 4. Curt Schilling 5. Jim Edmonds 6. Dazzy Vance (HOF) 7. Jose Bautista 8. Barry Larkin (HOF) Those are just the players that come to mind off of the top of my head.
There are also those who had some very long continued success.
1. Cal Ripken 2. Rickey Henderson 3. David Ortiz 4. Ted Williams 5. George Brett 6. Nolan Ryan
Not trying to knock any of these guys. I'm just trying to say, there are probably already players in the Hall who used steroids...and you can't use the "30-year" old plateau when you are talking about great players. Dazzy Vance and Ted Williams were not doing steroids But they were great even late into there careers. Having said that. I am a "no" on Manny Ramirez and Robinson Cano but a Yes on Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, Sosa, McGwire and Sheffield.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 23, 2020 13:53:07 GMT -5
Roy Sievers died just three years ago at the age of 90. He's another example. After early injuries he did his best work from age 29 on. There are certainly others. I agree, it's a mistake to just stick a label on someone using an arbitrary age cutoff.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2020 13:57:07 GMT -5
Roy Sievers died just three years ago at the age of 90. He's another example. After early injuries he did his best work from age 29 on. There are certainly others. I agree, it's a mistake to just stick a label on someone using an arbitrary age cutoff. You mentioned Roy Sievers, and I don't know why, but my mind flashed on Brian Downing. There's a guy who aged pretty gracefully. He was a backup catcher for the White Sox who eventually got to play (and hit well) for the Angels before moving to LF to make room for Bob Boone, a much better defensive catcher. Downing was a power hitting leadoff guy, a guy that doesn't fit the 1980s image of a leadoff guy but he walked a lot and had power and was quite good in his 30s.
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Post by billyw on Nov 23, 2020 14:37:33 GMT -5
Brian Downing and Roy Sievers are perfect examples of Players who improved after 30. Actually along with Dwight Evans, they might be the best examples. Bobby Grich is another player that just flat out became a better player once he turned 30. Some day he will probably be placed in the HOF by a Vet committee. Jeff Kent is another player that aged pretty well. For many of these players it is either a scenery change, a position chance or a chance at more at-bats. Saying a player can't improve after 30 is not true in all circumstances.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 23, 2020 19:03:02 GMT -5
There are quite a few examples including current ones. Check out Nelson Cruz. He's delivered over 75% of his value since he's turned 30.
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Post by manfred on Nov 24, 2020 13:18:31 GMT -5
I would like to point out to some of you who are discussing the "jump" for players should not get after they turn 30. Here are a list of players who seemed to have that jump but have never been linked to steroids. 1. Dwight Evans 2. Paul Molitor (HOF) twice went to rehab for Cocaine use and could not stay healthy in his twenties. 3. Andre Dawson (HOF) 4. Curt Schilling 5. Jim Edmonds 6. Dazzy Vance (HOF) 7. Jose Bautista 8. Barry Larkin (HOF) Those are just the players that come to mind off of the top of my head. There are also those who had some very long continued success. 1. Cal Ripken 2. Rickey Henderson 3. David Ortiz 4. Ted Williams 5. George Brett 6. Nolan Ryan Not trying to knock any of these guys. I'm just trying to say, there are probably already players in the Hall who used steroids...and you can't use the "30-year" old plateau when you are talking about great players. Dazzy Vance and Ted Williams were not doing steroids But they were great even late into there careers. Having said that. I am a "no" on Manny Ramirez and Robinson Cano but a Yes on Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, Sosa, McGwire and Sheffield. That is sort of the point, though. The greatest players are the greatest because they succeed well past the point most begin to decline — likely a combination of good habits and luck. I mean, Ryan is a freak who proves the rule.... but I’d add there are some suspicious guys on your list: Edmonds, Bautista, and obviously Papi. Nonetheless, the point is on average guys decline with age. QED. The road to the HOF runs through putting that decline off. For the greats, they did it fair and square. For others, not as much. To the point of Cano someone made elsewhere, asking why do steroids after a huge contract: there is pride, ambition, desire to extend greatness. I remember a cyclist talking about juicing, and his point was that it was not just about being Lance.... it was about not getting blown out by the guy you used to beat.
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