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Red Sox Sign RHP Matt Andriese; Reds claim C Deivy Grullon
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 23, 2020 18:50:51 GMT -5
They must have thought Grullon doesn’t have the mitt to stay behind the plate. That’s my only way of justifying him being the roster spot axed Maybe. Or they were less than thrilled with his attitude/personality/mental approach to the game, whatever you want o call. They had him at the ATS and clearly weren't imopressed after getting a first hand look at him. Seems odd on the surface, but the Sox have SO much info on the guy than any of us. Have to give them the benefit of the doubt, I think.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 23, 2020 18:55:23 GMT -5
So the Front Office and Ownership are going to wait a few years for blue chip free agent prices to go up before they spend on them, or are the Red Sox becoming the Rays? The sox have already spent more this offseason than the rays usually do. This fan base acts like spoiled toddlers. Give it time. You want Bauer and Springer? Last time the sox signed the top 2 free agents they needed magic Johnson to bail their asses out I want Springer, Odorizzi and LaStella.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 23, 2020 18:56:20 GMT -5
I personally have no desire to sign Bauer, Springer, etc. But come on man, Andriese is tough sell. I fail to see the upside in this signing. Point out the downside to a 2 million dollar signing... this won't stop them from accomplishing anything else they may want to do A lot of signings have limited upside, but very little downside. Solid depth for very little $$, under $2mill. Nothing wrong with this.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 23, 2020 19:04:18 GMT -5
Another signing with Blooms fingerprints on it.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 23, 2020 19:15:54 GMT -5
Point out the downside to a 2 million dollar signing... this won't stop them from accomplishing anything else they may want to do A lot of signings have limited upside, but very little downside. Solid depth for very little $$, under $2mill. Nothing wrong with this. Hall Hart Kickam. I can go on. YOU NEED PITCHING DEPTH. Low risk signing. I like it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2020 20:15:05 GMT -5
Grullon's bat (lot's of power, lots of strikeouts) is not good enough to make up for the glove which is nowhere near ready. He's also seriously overweight and would be useless anywhere else on the field. We should be able to easily do better for an emergency taxi catcher but likely no so in terms of prospect status but no major loss here.
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Post by rasimon on Dec 23, 2020 20:16:07 GMT -5
The sox have already spent more this offseason than the rays usually do. This fan base acts like spoiled toddlers. Give it time. You want Bauer and Springer? Last time the sox signed the top 2 free agents they needed magic Johnson to bail their asses out I want Springer, Odorizzi and LaStella. Kluber, Sugano, and Ha-Seong Kim
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2020 20:17:45 GMT -5
It should be noted that a few days after Philadelphia waived Grullon, they signed Lucroy as a backup catcher. It's not like Philly waived him because they had too many catchers.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 23, 2020 20:41:37 GMT -5
This move might have been better well received if the Sox signed a starter first lol. Instead free agency is almost reversed nowadays. The end of the roster bullpen pieces are signing early and taking whatever money they can get. The high priced guys wait until spring training almost. 10 years ago, it was the opposite. First went the big money and then whatever was leftover was spent on the middle relievers, etc.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 23, 2020 20:42:50 GMT -5
It should be noted that a few days after Philadelphia waived Grullon, they signed Lucroy as a backup catcher. It's not like Philly waived him because they had too many catchers. I wonder if the Sox are resigning Lucroy this off-season after this move, ironically enough.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2020 20:46:05 GMT -5
It should be noted that a few days after Philadelphia waived Grullon, they signed Lucroy as a backup catcher. It's not like Philly waived him because they had too many catchers. I wonder if the Sox are resigning Lucroy this off-season after this move, ironically enough. I hope so and not just because of the emergency catcher part, he's like a coach on the field. There were several positive comments from players like Casas. He was probably the most indirectly referenced player at the ATS. I was hoping that even before Grullon was waived. I'm sure Lucroy appreciates the Sox releasing him to get a shot with Philly who had playoff aspirations.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2020 21:47:42 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 23, 2020 22:07:02 GMT -5
It should be noted that a few days after Philadelphia waived Grullon, they signed Lucroy as a backup catcher. It's not like Philly waived him because they had too many catchers. They signed Lucroy to a minor league deal and never added him to the 40-man, so waiving Grullon had the effect of opening a 40-man spot.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2020 22:12:01 GMT -5
It should be noted that a few days after Philadelphia waived Grullon, they signed Lucroy as a backup catcher. It's not like Philly waived him because they had too many catchers. They signed Lucroy to a minor league deal and never added him to the 40-man, so waiving Grullon had the effect of opening a 40-man spot. Yes, exactly how the Sox should use it. If the Phillies thought he was a viable future catcher, they likely wouldn't have done that, particularly with Realmuto in his walk year. Maybe the Phillies knew what they were doing ?
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 23, 2020 22:23:57 GMT -5
Yeah the guy that’s thrown 460 inning of more or less average ball in the bigs and can give you bulk is no better than Colten Brewer lol Leave it to Sox fans to complain about throwing the likes of Hall and Hart last season, only to turn around and complain when they add quality depth the following offseason Haha! Yeah man, you're right. I'm not sure why I'm not pumped losing a 25 year old catcher to clear a spot for a 31 year old, below average reliever for one year at $1.85MM ($2.1MM AAV). Hell yeah, I'll take Brewer, Walden, Mazza, etc. and keep Grullon any day of the week and put the cash towards something the Sox don't already have. I mean, how many average players do you want on this team? The pitching starved Angels non-tendered this guy for a reason.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 23, 2020 22:38:37 GMT -5
From what we've seen about Bloom I find it very unlikely they are just neglecting the 3rd catcher spot, they must have someone, or potentially multiple options in mind they like better than Grullon. Agreed that removing him from the 40 before someone like Chatham is surprising (to me it seems they probably made some kind of handshake deal with Pedroia), but it just seems like after looking more into him they just don't see the upside we do. Otherwise for $2M I don't see a real downside with the pickup, the guy looks like he can pitch in the bullpen and provides some added insurance as a bulk guy if needed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 23, 2020 22:45:12 GMT -5
"Boston is hoping Andriese can build on a strong finish to the 2020 campaign, when he had a 1.46 ERA over his eight September appearances for the Angels, holding opponents to a .075 average (3-for-40) with no walks and 13 strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched."
Really resisting the urge to see if there was any discernible difference in approach or pitch movement there.
But if you assume that there was, and a few teams figured it out, and they all saw upside, and there was a little stealth bidding war which we just won ... it makes perfect sense.
At the results level, September, minimum 30 BFP (he had 40) ...
Andriese ranked 2nd in wOBA allowed and 6th in xwOBA ... out of 395 pitchers.
Going deeper than xwOBA ... he had a 2.50 pERA. For comparison, the consensus top FA relievers in 2020, in reverse order for dramatic effect ....
(Average sample is 93 BFP)
4.06 Alex Colome
3.74 Trevor May 3.18 Blake Treinen 2.80 Trevor Rosenthal 3.09 Brad Hand
1.15 Liam Hendriks (seriously)
OK, I'm going to do a quick comparison of easy-to-find data, career, early 2020, September 2020.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 24, 2020 0:26:50 GMT -5
I compared his career as a reliever from 2018 until the end of August of this year, to his September.
No change in release points of any of his three primary pitches (FA, CH, CU).
He threw the FB less often (43.6% versus 46.4%) and the curve more (13.9% vs. 10.1%). The curve was 0.9 mph slower, relative to the FB, and had an extra inch of downward movement.
There's one change I can spot in pitch movement data, a further downward break on his curve, which happened mid-month along with a velo uptick. See later in the thread!
His plate discipline metrics got hugely better, most notably an O-Swing from 29.4% to 40.5% and an O-Contact from 59.2% to 46.9%, which meant his O-Miss rate went from .120 to .215. But making sense of that depends on his pitch placement, so that's the next thing to look at (maybe tomorrow). If the only thing going on here is a changed approach, will the league catch up to that?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 24, 2020 1:06:21 GMT -5
Point out the downside to a 2 million dollar signing... this won't stop them from accomplishing anything else they may want to do A lot of signings have limited upside, but very little downside. Solid depth for very little $$, under $2mill. Nothing wrong with this. Agree, nothing wrong with this particular signing. he can be either a true swingman, or one of those BP guys when they run openers out there and maybe throw 3-4 innings. I'm still worried about the pen being weaker than it was last year. Subtract Workman, even a Hembree and being replaced with Andriese, Rule 5 kid, more of the same MiLB FA's, a guy in Valdez who just had his 1st decent season. It's going to take a higher end (of some sort) arm to help out Hernandez, Barnes, Brasier and once again.. Hoping to comeback from his own decent 1st season in 2019, Josh Taylor.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,149
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Post by cdj on Dec 24, 2020 1:13:11 GMT -5
Yeah the guy that’s thrown 460 inning of more or less average ball in the bigs and can give you bulk is no better than Colten Brewer lol Leave it to Sox fans to complain about throwing the likes of Hall and Hart last season, only to turn around and complain when they add quality depth the following offseason Haha! Yeah man, you're right. I'm not sure why I'm not pumped losing a 25 year old catcher to clear a spot for a 31 year old, below average reliever for one year at $1.85MM ($2.1MM AAV). Hell yeah, I'll take Brewer, Walden, Mazza, etc. and keep Grullon any day of the week and put the cash towards something the Sox don't already have. I mean, how many average players do you want on this team? The pitching starved Angels non-tendered this guy for a reason. You’re complaining about them adding pitching depth after a season where they pitched Matt Hall. He’s got a much better track record than any of the guys you mentioned. This team needs pitching. The cost is nothing. They clearly don’t value Grullon a whole lot, and neither did a team with a weaker farm system than the Sox. Cry more about nothing, you can’t If he gives them 40-50 average innings as a swing man that has a lot of value! You would think somebody would understand that after watching this past season. Not to mention it doesn’t prevent them from doing a damn thing, it’s literally just throwing an arm that has 460 innings of pretty average baseball save for his immediate stretch in Arizona into the mix And again he’s got good spin data and seemingly made some adjustments at the end of the season. It’s another arm to look at. I literally don’t know why people are in here complaining. Must be a miserable life to lead. Just complaining for the sake of being able to hear yourself complain Unless you think them spending that money prohibits them from doing anything...which would mean I won’t take you seriously for the rest of time For the record I’m not even saying he will be good- it’s just dumb to complain about. It stops them from doing nothing and if he’s not one of their best swingman options then he won’t be on the team. Pretty simple. They’re paying depth guys 400k to waive them. They’re spending money along the margins of the roster to make sure they won’t be embarrassing at the major league level, which we have seen a lot of lately. You talk about “how many average guys do I want?” Well if they’re replacing all the shitty guys we had then I’ll take as many as we need and then 5 extra. You can never have enough pitching
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,149
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Post by cdj on Dec 24, 2020 1:24:43 GMT -5
I compared his career as a reliever from 2018 until the end of August of this year, to his September.
No change in release points of any of his three primary pitches (FA, CH, CU).
He threw the FB less often (43.6% versus 46.4%) and the curve more (13.9% vs. 10.1%). The curve was 0.9 mph slower, relative to the FB, and had an extra inch of downward movement.
All three pitches ran more into RHB, the FB 0.5" and the change 0.8", while the curve broke 0.3" less away. My first thought was that he simply moved 0.5" to the 3B side of the rubber. But the fastball rose 0.3" less and the change dropped 0.3" less. That may be random, but the whole pattern also suggests that he may have altered the relative grip on all three pitches, i.e., where he puts his hand relative to the seams.
His plate discipline metrics got hugely better, most notably an O-Swing from 29.4% to 40.5% and an O-Contact from 59.2% to 46.9%, which meant his O-Miss rate went from .120 to .215. But making sense of that depends on his pitch placement, so that's the next thing to look at (maybe tomorrow). If the only thing going on here is a changed approach, will the league catch up to that?
I believe he was quoted as saying he was just throwing with more conviction and confidence after being able to get trotted out there consistently. I’m interested in seeing if you find any trends that may have led to that increased confidence in himself. He seems to think the trend is usage. Maybe he’s 31 yr old pitcher Chavis lol
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 24, 2020 1:54:16 GMT -5
Haha! Yeah man, you're right. I'm not sure why I'm not pumped losing a 25 year old catcher to clear a spot for a 31 year old, below average reliever for one year at $1.85MM ($2.1MM AAV). Hell yeah, I'll take Brewer, Walden, Mazza, etc. and keep Grullon any day of the week and put the cash towards something the Sox don't already have. I mean, how many average players do you want on this team? The pitching starved Angels non-tendered this guy for a reason. You’re complaining about them adding pitching depth after a season where they pitched Matt Hall. He’s got a much better track record than any of the guys you mentioned. This team needs pitching. The cost is nothing. They clearly don’t value Grullon a whole lot, and neither did a team with a weaker farm system than the Sox. Cry more about nothing, you can’t If he gives them 40-50 average innings as a swing man that has a lot of value! You would think somebody would understand that after watching this past season. Not to mention it doesn’t prevent them from doing a damn thing, it’s literally just throwing an arm that has 460 innings of pretty average baseball save for his immediate stretch in Arizona into the mix And again he’s got good spin data and seemingly made some adjustments at the end of the season. It’s another arm to look at. I literally don’t know why people are in here complaining. Must be a miserable life to lead. Just complaining for the sake of being able to hear yourself complain Unless you think them spending that money prohibits them from doing anything...which would mean I won’t take you seriously for the rest of time For the record I’m not even saying he will be good- it’s just dumb to complain about. It stops them from doing nothing and if he’s not one of their best swingman options then he won’t be on the team. Pretty simple. Is it complaining to point out that the guy is not good? I'm just stating a fact. Andriese career era+ is 91, and that's below league average. Hell, Ryan Weber is better, younger and cheaper. Does it prevent them from doing anything? Nah. But, the $2.1MM they gave him could have been better spent, IMO. I'm not sure why you're getting so worked up. Trust me, no one wants to see the Sox succeed as much as myself. So relax man. Since you're a fan of this signing, maybe I will be of the next, haha.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,149
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Post by cdj on Dec 24, 2020 2:05:51 GMT -5
You’re complaining about them adding pitching depth after a season where they pitched Matt Hall. He’s got a much better track record than any of the guys you mentioned. This team needs pitching. The cost is nothing. They clearly don’t value Grullon a whole lot, and neither did a team with a weaker farm system than the Sox. Cry more about nothing, you can’t If he gives them 40-50 average innings as a swing man that has a lot of value! You would think somebody would understand that after watching this past season. Not to mention it doesn’t prevent them from doing a damn thing, it’s literally just throwing an arm that has 460 innings of pretty average baseball save for his immediate stretch in Arizona into the mix And again he’s got good spin data and seemingly made some adjustments at the end of the season. It’s another arm to look at. I literally don’t know why people are in here complaining. Must be a miserable life to lead. Just complaining for the sake of being able to hear yourself complain Unless you think them spending that money prohibits them from doing anything...which would mean I won’t take you seriously for the rest of time For the record I’m not even saying he will be good- it’s just dumb to complain about. It stops them from doing nothing and if he’s not one of their best swingman options then he won’t be on the team. Pretty simple. Is it complaining to point out that the guy is not good? I'm just stating a fact. Andriese career era+ is 91, and that's below league average. Hell, Ryan Weber is better, younger and cheaper. Does it prevent them from doing anything? Nah. But, the $2.1MM they gave him could have been better spent, IMO. I'm not sure why you're getting so worked up. Trust me, no one wants to see the Sox succeed as much as myself. So relax man. Since you're a fan of this signing, maybe I will be of the next, haha. Yeah and Ryan Weber is usable depth, but Andriese also has learned to miss bats as time has gone on. And if you go by FIP Andriese has been the better pitcher, both last season and over the course of their careers. And he’s also logged 3x the number of innings. It’s depth. I’d rather him than trash. We’ve seen plenty of trash. I hope you do like the next move too lol Hopefully we both do
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 24, 2020 4:19:06 GMT -5
I compared his career as a reliever from 2018 until the end of August of this year, to his September.
No change in release points of any of his three primary pitches (FA, CH, CU).
He threw the FB less often (43.6% versus 46.4%) and the curve more (13.9% vs. 10.1%). The curve was 0.9 mph slower, relative to the FB, and had an extra inch of downward movement.
All three pitches ran more into RHB, the FB 0.5" and the change 0.8", while the curve broke 0.3" less away. My first thought was that he simply moved 0.5" to the 3B side of the rubber. But the fastball rose 0.3" less and the change dropped 0.3" less. That may be random, but the whole pattern also suggests that he may have altered the relative grip on all three pitches, i.e., where he puts his hand relative to the seams.
His plate discipline metrics got hugely better, most notably an O-Swing from 29.4% to 40.5% and an O-Contact from 59.2% to 46.9%, which meant his O-Miss rate went from .120 to .215. But making sense of that depends on his pitch placement, so that's the next thing to look at (maybe tomorrow). If the only thing going on here is a changed approach, will the league catch up to that?
I believe he was quoted as saying he was just throwing with more conviction and confidence after being able to get trotted out there consistently. I’m interested in seeing if you find any trends that may have led to that increased confidence in himself. He seems to think the trend is usage. Maybe he’s 31 yr old pitcher Chavis lol I looked at his previous relief work and broke down his pitches into Heart, Black ("Shadow" in the strike zone), Off ("Shadow" outside the zone), Chase, and Waste. I ignored the handful of cutters he threw and just looked at his three main pitches.
I used those percentages to predict how many Off + Chase pitches he would have thrown this September. How did he achieve an 80% improvement in swings and misses outside the zone?
Based on his old approach, he was expected to throw 65.6 pitches that might be swung at outside the zone (out of 152 total), but instead he threw ... wait for it ... 63. What?
There were 5.3 fewer fastballs, 0.3 fewer changeups, and 3.1 more curves.
He actually threw 3 extra FB's in the heart and 5 fewer trying to paint (Shadow). That's actually consistent with the "more conviction" sentiment.
He threw 7 more curves then expected, including an extra 2.2 in the heart and 2.9 off the plate.
The third significant change is that he threw 5.2 fewer changeups, led by 2.2 fewer in the heart and 2.3 fewer wasted. That just looks like better command.
The idea that consistent usage made him better doesn't fit the facts. His first two outings in September came with 3 and 7 days rest (he'd been averaging 4 previously) and he put up a 3.2 1 0 0 0 4 line. That was 12 days into September.
Let's look at the previously noted changes and see when in the year they happened.
His velo ticked up starting 9/15, FB from 91.7 to 92.8, Change from 85.7 to 86.9, curve from 79.9 to 80.3. That does seem to be a consistent-use effect.
My horizontal movement data was wrong. And the movement data varies outing-to-outing. The only real change I can now see in any movement again starts 9/15, when the curve, already featuring 0.5" more drop, picks up another 0.7".
So, I think there's a change in approach that he didn't tell the Angels about, maybe because it was a bit outside the box and he thought they wouldn't approve. The stuff then starts playing up with regular use.
However, does that explain how he went from a .128 walk rate (terrible for him) to .000? Well, he only got to a 3-ball count on 6 of his 40 hitters, and 5 of those were full counts. He averaged 4.1 P/PA and was getting guys out quickly ... which is consistent with confounding hitters with an unexpected approach.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 24, 2020 7:55:09 GMT -5
“I signed here with the Red Sox for the opportunity to do both, so I have a lot of flexibility in my career,” Andriese said. “I’ve started lots of games, I’ve come in the bullpen more recently, but can be given the opportunity to start and the Red Sox are obviously are trying to get more starters too. I think my flexibility and my role, I’m going to compete for a starting spot. I know that being in the bullpen is an option to help the team as well.” . . . As a reliever, Andriese relied on a two-pitch mix of a fastball and a changeup, the latter of which he labeled as his best pitch. But he noted adding his curveball, slider, cutter and two-seamer back into the mix will help strengthen his repertoire as a starter.
“I’ve kind of fine-tuned different pitches that I think using all of my pitches in a starting role probably benefits me more,” he said. “Just mixing and matching better, I’ll be able to go deeper into games, throw more innings, and that’ll get me a good opportunity to start and be able to eat up some innings.” theathletic.com/2281806/2020/12/23/matt-andriese-red-sox/?source=dailyemail
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